martin wrote:

Clean wrote:1st of all thanks for everyone explaining that so I could finally understand it. Now that it I understand each trade it does change my feelings on draft night. If we indeed did not like anyone left then trading #11 for 3 1sts is not a bad move. I mean we got a draft pick right behind ours for one 1st and four 2nd round picks. The Pistons trade also seems better now that it is basically a draft pick swap for the salary dump. The bucks pick will be worse than the 13 given to Det but that is the price we paid for the salary dump and TPE.

Even though I feel better about the draft night deals it all still depends on what we do with the flexibility we now have. We have all these connections to Brunson so I believe that we know for a fact that he is coming for us to be doing all of this.

So here is the weird thing on the difference between those 2 picks, especially from Knicks point of view. IMHO, they got the BETTER pick for their circumstance, but that's eye of the beholder opinion.

Essentially Knicks are choosing between Denver 2023 pick (protected 1-14) and Milwaukee 2025 pick (protected 1-4).

From Knicks standpoint, they will already have first rounder 2023 Knicks, 2023 Dallas, most likely 2023 Washington (protected 1-14) and 2023 2nd rounder from Detroit. Do the Knicks REALLY need that Denver pick next year which will be in the #25 range? Charlotte wanted that pick cause they had zero 2023 picks and it met their need (it's why they wanted all those 2023 second rounders too). Knicks IMO as satisfied moving that pick to a later year in 2025.

Its lightly protected and its 3 seasons away. Look at the Warriors. They won a championship and a year later got the 2nd pick. Maybe something happens and Giannis forces himself out. Maybe he gets hurt.

martin wrote:

Jmpasq wrote:

martin wrote:

Clean wrote:1st of all thanks for everyone explaining that so I could finally understand it. Now that it I understand each trade it does change my feelings on draft night. If we indeed did not like anyone left then trading #11 for 3 1sts is not a bad move. I mean we got a draft pick right behind ours for one 1st and four 2nd round picks. The Pistons trade also seems better now that it is basically a draft pick swap for the salary dump. The bucks pick will be worse than the 13 given to Det but that is the price we paid for the salary dump and TPE.

Even though I feel better about the draft night deals it all still depends on what we do with the flexibility we now have. We have all these connections to Brunson so I believe that we know for a fact that he is coming for us to be doing all of this.

So here is the weird thing on the difference between those 2 picks, especially from Knicks point of view. IMHO, they got the BETTER pick for their circumstance, but that's eye of the beholder opinion.

Essentially Knicks are choosing between Denver 2023 pick (protected 1-14) and Milwaukee 2025 pick (protected 1-4).

From Knicks standpoint, they will already have first rounder 2023 Knicks, 2023 Dallas, most likely 2023 Washington (protected 1-14) and 2023 2nd rounder from Detroit. Do the Knicks REALLY need that Denver pick next year which will be in the #25 range? Charlotte wanted that pick cause they had zero 2023 picks and it met their need (it's why they wanted all those 2023 second rounders too). Knicks IMO as satisfied moving that pick to a later year in 2025.

Its lightly protected and its 3 seasons away. Look at the Warriors. They won a championship and a year later got the 2nd pick. Maybe something happens and Giannis forces himself out. Maybe he gets hurt.

Yes. This year: Steph 33, Klay 31, Green 31.

In 3 years: Giannis ~31, Middleton 33, Jrue 34

martin wrote:

Clean wrote:1st of all thanks for everyone explaining that so I could finally understand it. Now that it I understand each trade it does change my feelings on draft night. If we indeed did not like anyone left then trading #11 for 3 1sts is not a bad move. I mean we got a draft pick right behind ours for one 1st and four 2nd round picks. The Pistons trade also seems better now that it is basically a draft pick swap for the salary dump. The bucks pick will be worse than the 13 given to Det but that is the price we paid for the salary dump and TPE.

Even though I feel better about the draft night deals it all still depends on what we do with the flexibility we now have. We have all these connections to Brunson so I believe that we know for a fact that he is coming for us to be doing all of this.

So here is the weird thing on the difference between those 2 picks, especially from Knicks point of view. IMHO, they got the BETTER pick for their circumstance, but that's eye of the beholder opinion.

Essentially Knicks are choosing between Denver 2023 pick (protected 1-14) and Milwaukee 2025 pick (protected 1-4).

From Knicks standpoint, they will already have first rounder 2023 Knicks, 2023 Dallas, most likely 2023 Washington (protected 1-14) and 2023 2nd rounder from Detroit. Do the Knicks REALLY need that Denver pick next year which will be in the #25 range? Charlotte wanted that pick cause they had zero 2023 picks and it met their need (it's why they wanted all those 2023 second rounders too). Knicks IMO as satisfied moving that pick to a later year in 2025.

I think the 2023 super draft may be misleading. Some of the opinions are based on its role as a “double draft” where newer information indicates it might not be until 2025 in connection with the new CBA. Very unlikely at this point that 2023 is a double draft. So, to the extent that some of these picks may slip to 2024 or 2025 is interesting.

In terms of the Bucks of 2025, it’s important to note that both Holiday and Middleton have player options before the 24/25 season and that to keep all three they have over 120mm committed to 3 players. It’s a great squad, but 3 years older is still 3 years older. I don’t expect Giannis to be any less effective in 2025 than he is today, but if you look at Middleton, that man is as important to that Bucks squad as any other person. He is the number 1 beneficiary of any attempts to double Giannis and he is very effective from anywhere on the floor. They also lack picks at this time to reload. High probability it’s a 20+ pick, but they don’t have the assets to correct themselves if something goes wrong.

I don’t want to cry gloom and doom for the Bucks, but I like the possibility of that earning out in what may be the so called double draft. It’s a worthwhile draft pick.

jaydh wrote:they had to use the 13th pick to move Kemba. seems steep for an expiring.

We traded the 13 for the Bucks 2025 in that move.

EwingsGlass wrote:

jaydh wrote:they had to use the 13th pick to move Kemba. seems steep for an expiring.

We traded the 13 for the Bucks 2025 in that move.

I know, but chances are its a late 1st since Giannis is going nowhere. Why not keep the 13th and just exile Kemba? Maybe they know something about needing the cap space that we do not.

martin wrote:

Tweet was deleted or there was problem with the URL:

https://twitter.com/FredKatz/status/1540172860207112192

Knicks-Hornets trade

Knicks receive:
• No. 13 pick (Jalen Duren)
Hornets receive:
• 2023 first round pick via Denver (protected 1-14 until 2025)
• 2023 second round pick via New York
• 2023 second round pick via Utah
• 2023 second round pick (most favorable pick between Dallas and Miami)
• 2024 second round pick via New York

Knicks-Pistons trade

Knicks receive:
• 2025 first-round pick via Milwaukee (protected 1-4)
Pistons receive:
• No. 13 pick (Jalen Duren)
• Kemba Walker

Knicks gave:
2022 1st round #11 pick
2023 1st round pick via Denver, likely to fall in the 20s
3 2023 2nd round picks
2025 2nd round pick
Kemba Walker

Knicks got:
2 2023 1st round picks via Washington & Detroit, likely no higher than in the 20s due to protections
2025 1st round pick via Milwaukee, likely no higher than in the 20s
$16m extra cap space for this summer
$9m trade exception

So, essentially we traded a #11 pick this year and 4 second rounders for two first rounders in 2023 and 2025 at best likely to be in the 20s, and gained $16m cap space for this summer FA campaign.

To me a certain #11 pick right now is a lot more valuable than two conditional picks in the 20s down the line. So either we do something amazing with the extra $16m cap room this summer, or the trade is no good.

martin wrote:

ESOMKnicks wrote:Let me try another summary to assess how the Knicks have come out net-net on all trades so far this offseason:

Knicks gave:
2022 1st round #11 pick
2023 1st round pick via Denver, likely to fall in the 20s
3 2023 2nd round picks
2025 2nd round pick
Kemba Walker

Knicks got:
2 2023 1st round picks via Washington & Detroit, likely no higher than in the 20s due to protections
2025 1st round pick via Milwaukee, likely no higher than in the 20s
$16m extra cap space for this summer
$9m trade exception

So, essentially we traded a #11 pick this year and 4 second rounders for two first rounders in 2023 and 2025 at best likely to be in the 20s, and gained $16m cap space for this summer FA campaign.

To me a certain #11 pick right now is a lot more valuable than two conditional picks in the 20s down the line. So either we do something amazing with the extra $16m cap room this summer, or the trade is no good.

I don't agree with those assessments. For a team to pick in the 20's, you are talking about being a top 10 team in the league, nearly getting 50 wins.

You are saying that after next season Washington (2023 pick is protected out to 14) is more likely to be a top 10 team (those are the teams picking in the 20's) than just making the playoffs or being a play-in team. I doubt that; I don't think they will be lottery but I doubt they a top 10 team.

The Detroit protected pick is a bit more tricky. In 2025, after 3 more seasons, do you think Detroit is a top 10 team in the league? That's the year the pick is 1-13 protected. Debatable.

Do you think after 3 more season, when Giannis is 31, Jrue Holiday will be 35, Middleton will be 34.... you think that iteration of the Bucks team will be top 10? They would have to be very lucky.

Okay, this whole thing was confusing to me, let me try again.

Knicks gave:
2022 1st round #11 pick
3 2023 2nd round picks
2025 2nd round pick
Kemba Walker

Knicks got:
2023 1st round pick via Washington (protected 1-14 in 2023, protected 1-12 in 2024, protected 1-10 in 2025, protected 1-8 in 2026)
2023 1st round pick via Detroit (protected 1-18 until 2024, protected 1-13 in 2025, protected 1-11 in 2026, protected 1-9 in 2027)
2025 1st round pick via Milwaukee (protected 1-4)
$16m extra cap space for this summer
$9m trade exception

I think Milwaukee definitely keeps its crap together to give us a very low pick in 2025. I see WAS as a bottom-dweller for another couple of years, so no pick at all from them for some time, and DET may actually yield a pick below 18 already next year (okay, two spots above 20).

Not sure that we have a better chance of finding a stud below #18 next year than at #11 this year.

But it is true, it is not like we have lost valuable assets net-net in to create cap space this summer.

TPercy wrote:

efw wrote:Here's another piece of info about the picks from someone on Reddit. I won't claim to fully understand, but thought it might be of interest:

That’s not how pick protection value works.
Nowadays you don’t see picks traded without protections so the protections on those picks are pretty much normal. Now the real value of those picks are the fact that we now control Washingtons and Detroits ability to trade the rest of their picks. Which means if they are looking to make moves and use those picks they need to pay us to lift those restrictions. So not only will we have the picks but they’ll pay us to make them unrestricted to gain the ability to trade.
Getting 3 future first round picks for pick 11 in a weak draft where no prospect is expected to be a franchise changer is an amazing return.

For example detroits pick is heavily protected for the next 3-4 years so they can’t trade any other pick until like 2028. If next year they wanna make a swing for another star and they wanna be able to use the rest of their picks they’ll have to call us and ask us to lift the protections so they aren’t bound by the stepian rule.
That’s when Leon is gonna be like “ok no problem give me a second round pick for each year of protection left”

Credit to u/DosViews

Im actually quite happy. I didn't consider this either. Leon Rose is the man and I'm glad im not a GM. Also consider this: we don't HAVE to get Brunson. We could easily try and absorb a bad contract for more draft picks.

We could and that's the plan I have been advocating for, for years but, I think the purpose of opening up this cap space is because Brunson has given them every indication that he will sign here as a FA if we have space.