foosballnick wrote:
The question for me is if Putin is crazy/sociopathic enough to go with a Nuclear option if things start closing in on him. A long protracted conflict and targeted occupation in Ukraine could ultimately have significant negative financial and social impact on Russia - especially as the death toll and military losses mounts and protests / political arrests in Russia increase. Putin is 70 years old - and if pressures do mount against him in Russia to the point of a potential coups - what unthinkable things would he be capable of doing?
Yes, these are absolutely the right things to consider. Hard to say what is in Putin's head, especially since he is a former spy and, therefore, relishes in deception, blackmail, bluffing, subversion and sabotage. It is clear that his biggest fear is meeting his end in a public and humiliating fashion like Gadaffi or Saddam, which could happen if he loses his stranglehold on power in Russia. And, yes, before such a thing happens, he would press the button to take the whole world down, so that no one lives to see his demise. But I also think that his basic instict of self-preservation is strong, and he enjoys having comfort and wealth, so he has probably prepared a number of options to save his skin if threatened with a revolution. He could find asylum in a neutral third country, he could simply fake his death and live incognito under a new identity, or he could simply declare whatever outcome of the war in Ukraine as his victory, and violently suppress anyone in Russia daring to disagree with that. I would think that any of that beats the prospects of dying in a nuclear holocaust, or condemning himself and his family to a lifetime in an Siberian underground nuclear bunker, as lavish as it may be.
Short of the West making Putin face someone he would regard as being as impervious, unscrupulous and unpredictable as himself (hello, Donald), and before whom he might actually back down, the current non-military containment is still the best course.