foosballnick wrote:

TripleThreat wrote:

fishmike wrote:it would be such a sell low... he could be a monster. He's so long, fast and athletic. He works so hard and the coaching staff had him purely focused on doing the team stuff first. Its not gonna be long before he's good at those things he's shown improvement on (defense, handle, boxing out, not going for head fakes) AND he starts looking for his own shot watch out. I suspect its next year at some point. I really hope we wait and see

Stop Loss

Trading Obi Toppin right now would be a Stop Loss

Trading Carter-Williams at least seems like it was the right move.

*****
Trading Toppin now is a Stop Loss. In the same way that Hinkie, with gigantic balls no doubt, traded MCW when he recognized the player he had, not the player he wanted MCW to be.

Leon Rose made a lot of good decisions in his first year. This is not one of them. Part of being a good leader is knowing when to recognize and move past a mistake. This is how Bill Belichick and Billy Beane have survived so long in professional sports.

For someone who claims to have attended MIT I find your comparison tying MCW to Obi curious. The concept of "Stop-Loss" as it pertains to professional sports - roster asset management really only is optimized if there is a recognized significant decline in asset depreciated value. In the case of MCW, coming off his rookie season where is started 70 games and averaged almost 35 mpg - his trade value was much higher than a player like Obi, who did not start and played limited minutes behind Randle. In other words, Hinkie traded MCW at a high - maximizing the longer term stop loss replacement value - while Rose would essentially be trading Obi at a low, with likely much more minimal return.

Further - another factor of stop loss is the replacement effort and value that would be saved/redeployed by moving an asset off your books. In other words, what is the value of Obi's replacement on the team should he be traded? If Obi is removed, what is his replacement and at what cost against the cap (his current salary will be team controllable between ~$5M - 7M over the next 3 years)? Since any replacement of Obi is an unknown at this time, no fan can accurately say with confidence what the value would be to remove Obi at his salary and re-deploy resources and effort to player X at $X salary.

To recap - the situations are not comparable:

MCW - starter with high usage rate for 1.5 seasons with Sixers a lottery level team, lead the team in minutes, second in scoring. High-ish trade value, high potential stop-loss value, younger potential replacements already on roster (Ish Smith, Tony Wroten).

Obi Toppin - non-starter with low usage, low minutes, low scoring on a playoff team. Lower trade value, low stop-loss value - no current replacement on roster.

If the objective is to accumulate, develop and improve assets in order to better position a roster to become a perpetual contender - trading a cheap and relatively unknown commodity with minimal depreciable value - does not seem prudent. The objective should be to exhaust efforts while that asset's cost is low and build that asset's value for either use or trade.

Frank would be an example of a player the team should cut ties with after efforts to build/display his overall value to the team have been exhausted.

I'll caveat this all by saying that if some other team is willing to pay a high price for Obi (which is likely doubtful right now) - then Rose should consider trading him. Also, if the Knicks bring in another PF who has higher value than Obi - the situation will certainly be different next season. But to just dump him for Stop-Loss at this point makes little sense given the above circumstances.

Good post. TT also claims he is a former star athlete, close friends with Brock Aller and former Miss Universe runner up. I believe all.

Although I believe Obi may be just another Frank, after watching him his first year, it is pointless thinking he would be worth much more than a throw-in right now. So why trade him? As you mentioned, there is not much gained.

Although I did not see anything last year that gives me confidence he will be much more than a role player off the bench, why not wait one more year and hope he improves his value? The good news is that he can improve several parts of his game. He likes his three-point shot way too much despite not having great form or percentage. Maybe he improves both? He does not go strong to the basket despite having good physical ability. Maybe he becomes more aggressive? He does not play good defense despite being long and athletic. Maybe he works with the
Thibs team to improve. The good news is that if he improves just one of these shortcomings his value will be higher. I am just hoping he proves me wrong and shows more in year two.

regardless -- seems his floor is like Mile Bridges but Obi is longer more upside on offense and less on defense

TripleThreat wrote:

foosballnick wrote:
For someone who claims to have attended MIT I find your comparison tying MCW to Obi curious. The concept of "Stop-Loss" as it pertains to professional sports - roster asset management really only is optimized if there is a recognized significant decline in asset depreciated value. In the case of MCW, coming off his rookie season where is started 70 games and averaged almost 35 mpg - his trade value was much higher than a player like Obi, who did not start and played limited minutes behind Randle. In other words, Hinkie traded MCW at a high - maximizing the longer term stop loss replacement value - while Rose would essentially be trading Obi at a low, with likely much more minimal return.

Further - another factor of stop loss is the replacement effort and value that would be saved/redeployed by moving an asset off your books. In other words, what is the value of Obi's replacement on the team should he be traded? If Obi is removed, what is his replacement and at what cost against the cap (his current salary will be team controllable between ~$5M - 7M over the next 3 years)? Since any replacement of Obi is an unknown at this time, no fan can accurately say with confidence what the value would be to remove Obi at his salary and re-deploy resources and effort to player X at $X salary.

If the objective is to accumulate, develop and improve assets in order to better position a roster to become a perpetual contender - trading a cheap and relatively unknown commodity with minimal depreciable value - does not seem prudent. The objective should be to exhaust efforts while that asset's cost is low and build that asset's value for either use or trade.

https://www.sloansportsconference.com/

When is a raw draft pick's value ( i.e. before it's actually used to take a player) the absolute highest? On draft night. Right before teams start picking. A quick nickel, esp with many GMs every year knowing their jobs are on the line within the next few months, is better than a slow dime for many. Once a player is actually selected, his value will drop like a rock the longer he stays on a roster and the more minutes he accumulates if he's clearly showing bust signs.

There were doubts about Obi Toppin before the draft. But no one could be sure for certain until you pitted him against live NBA competition at true NBA game speed. Now people know.

Trading Toppin right now would be at a "high" point currently, compared to where his trade value will be year from now. A year from now will be the new high point from the year after that. The more minutes he plays and the more games he gets into, what happens is the "rookie shine" wears off. At some point, you are no longer looking at growing pains, you are seeing long term career trends.

The MCW example is pointing out a front office has to have the balls to be honest with themselves when it's time to punt on a player, even if it generates backlash.

In order to raise Toppin's value , as you say the Knicks should do, he needs playing time. How? Barring a massive number of injuries, esp to Randle, where is this playing time coming from in reality? Randle is coming back next season ( it's very difficult to see a practical trade pathway that helps both the Knicks and a non Knicks team) and Toppin doesn't balance out Randle. But it's a bigger problem than that, Toppin doesn't balance out anyone on the roster. And even bigger woe is that he doesn't balance out every single NBA roster in the league.

You don't raise your value if you don't play and Thibs is not playing him. Thibs is a Defense First/Defense Always coach and Toppin gives him zero on defense. Toppin can't play the wing and he can't operate as a pivot. His lateral movement is ****, his footwork is atrocious, his timing is horrible, he's not strong enough to bang it out in the paint, he can't defend the rim, he isn't that great at switching, he's not a high BBIQ player, his recovery speed is shot. Thibs won't play him because Toppin can't help him win basketball games. This compounds that his handle is broken, he can't space the floor, he can't score from the low post, he can't create his own shot, he can't consistently get to the free throw line, he's not that great of a finisher around the rim if it's not an alley oop dunk.

How do you build Toppin's value when Thibs has zero reason to play him and the more you play him, the more it's cemented in the rest of the NBA's collective minds that Toppin is plainly unskilled in too many critical areas to help anyone.

What is the value of Toppin's replacement? Are you actually kidding me? Would it be hard for the Knicks to pick up literally any UDFA and find a guy that Thibs WON'T PLAY and can't dribble, shoot, finish, create his own shot, defend, space the floor at a low BBIQ with shockingly toxic level footwork. Are you asking what kind of contract would the Knicks have to take back to dump Toppin's contract? How could it be worse than this?

There are lots of guys who are overpaid but at least they can do something on the court. I'm not saying the Knicks should eat a bad contract to dump Toppin but it's not going to be hard to move Toppin while the rookie shine is still lingering a little. Not if the Knicks don't ask for much.

Something small > Nothing

If Randle does get injured for long stretches, do you think that automatically Toppin just suddenly starts getting massive minutes? He doesn't help this team win basketball games. Nothing about him is projectible. The more he plays, the more his flaws will show as career trends and his tanked value will be cemented. And if he does get massive minutes, what kind of **** show on defense will happen to our beloved team? I'm not a huge proponent of watching Juan Toscano Anderson lighting up the Knicks for 40 points because he will turn in a career game against Toppin. Are you guys prepared to watch Armoni Brooks or Mamadi Diakite look like the second coming of Oscar Robertson when Toppin flails around trying to cover them? There's even a decent chance Thibs won't play Toppin much even with a Randle injury.

The thing you seem to be missing is this mythical "unknown quantity" could give the Knicks the exact same thing as Toppin - Benched and doing nothing, but sans the highlight reel dunk every five games, and likely for cheaper.

Your argument seems to rest on the idea of "Well what if the Knicks end up with a guy who gives you less than nothing?" without realizing the issue in play is Toppin GIVES YOU NOTHING ANYWAY.

I mean what the **** are we talking about here? It's not like this is some super deep state secret. I'm sure Toppin is a good young man and is earnest and hard working, but this is not about that. The guy is completely unskilled and can't dribble, shoot, defend, make good decisions, consistently score, protect the rim and on and on and on and on.

We are talking about raising the value of a type of player that Thibs won't play and can't play? Are you being totally serious right now?

I agree, if there won't be any serious PT for him, and why wouldn't you trade him for a position of need.

Maybe you trade him to a team he can get quality minutes on and later on he comes back more develop like THJ did

foosballnick wrote:
We'll likely rarely agree on this as we see things from different lenses. When it comes to Obi, ypu are making assumptions of static development and taking the position of pre-determined outcomes based on minimal input. I'm taking the position that minimal input creates an unknown which would cloud educated decisions.

Regarding Thibs and playing time. Thibs could have sunk Obi on the bench with no PT similar to Frank & Knox. I would ask you based on your assessment of Obi's lack of skillset, Bball IQ and complete ineptitude - why Obi was in the rotation at all under Thibs? As you indicated why would the Knicks not have picked up someone off the scrap heap or from the g-league or given his minutes elsewhere? You cant have it both ways, either Thibs is competant or he is not. If Obi os truely a traffic cone - why would a coach like Thibs put him in at all?

https://theathletic.com/news/lebron-james-blames-nba-injuries-on-condensed-season-didnt-wanna-listen/XL0IZTLGoYMM

https://dailyfreepress.com/2021/04/20/the-fast-break-the-injury-problem-in-todays-nba/

Los Angeles Lakers star LeBron James blamed the NBA's rash of injuries to star players this year on the condensed season, saying in a series of tweets Wednesday, "I knew exactly what would happen."

"They all didn’t wanna listen to me about the start of the season," James wrote. "... I only wanted to protect the well being of the players which ultimately is the PRODUCT & BENEFIT of OUR GAME! These injuries isn’t just 'PART OF THE GAME'. It’s the lack of PURE RIM REST rest before starting back up."

"This is the best time of the year for our league and fans but missing a ton of our fav players," James continued. "... If there’s one person that know about the body and how it works all year round it’s ME! I speak for the health of all our players and I hate to see this many injuries this time of the year. Sorry fans wish you guys were seeing all your fav guys right now."

He added in a follow-up tweet, "And I know all about the business side too/factors so don’t even try me! I get it."

The Lakers had 71 days between clinching the 2019-20 NBA title in October at the bubble in Orlando and starting the 2020-21 campaign on Dec. 22. They played 72 games in 146 days during the regular season.

James, 36, missed 26 of 28 games in the second half of the regular season due to an ankle injury, and teammate Anthony Davis battled a series of injuries throughout the season, forcing him out of the lineup during the Lakers' first-round series loss to the Suns....

Among others to miss time just this postseason are Philadelphia's Joel Embiid, Brooklyn's James Harden and Kyrie Irving, Phoenix's Chris Paul, Utah's Donovan Mitchell and Mike Conley, Denver's Jamal Murray and Boston's Jaylen Brown. Dallas' Luka Doncic and Washington's Russell Westbrook played through injuries despite being listed as questionable.
Does LeBron have a point?

The real question is, who is LeBron angry at?....

The fact is, however, that the Players Association agreed to this schedule for the same reason the league did: Money. As such, they only have themselves to blame.

The larger question is whether this discussion will have any impact to the start of the 2021-22 season — still scheduled to begin on time in mid-October, after what would be another shortened offseason. If you follow the money, it seems unlikely.

https://www.foxsports.com/nba/new-york-knicks-team-injuries

https://www.foxsports.com/nba/mitchell-robinson-player-injuries

https://www.si.com/nba/2021/03/28/knicks-center-mitchell-robinson-fractures-foot

https://www.si.com/nba/2021/02/13/knicks-center-mitchell-robinson-fractures-hand

https://www.foxsports.com/nba/nerlens-noel-player-injuries

*****

Are you actually asking why Toppin was getting some minutes when both MRob and Noel struggled with injuries this year and the season was considered too dense/too many games for the amount of time allotted for this modified season?

The Knicks actually had pretty good health this year in general, but if MRob and Noel were healthier, the argument could be made Toppin would have been shelved much more.

You're pushing some pretty bull**** arguments here. Of course the Knicks weren't going to jettison Toppin in the middle of his rookie year. However if you don't think they regret this pick and wished they picked someone else, then you've got a great imagination.

Thibs just won COTY. He has every right to decide if Toppin can't help him or not and shelve him if he wants to do it.

Some basic realities of professional sports. Players suddenly making dramatic shifts in their fundamentals is not common. Does it happen? Rarely. Not enough to shift the exception to the rule. When Green Bay drafted Aaron Rodgers, he was going to a stable franchise with an existing veteran HOF QB1 on the roster. Rodgers had THREE years, under the old rookie system, to develop and rebuild all his fundamentals. That's pretty much unheard of in professional sports but it was a very unique situation. Danny Ferry got traded to the Cavs and signed a 10 year contract under the old NBA rookie system. He didn't pan out as hoped but he had time to actually develop whatever he would be because his contract situation gave him lots of time.

The current NBA rookie scale system does not facilitate this kind of time for Toppin. He's 23 and he's got three more years on the Knicks dime. Well assuming they pick up his 3rd and 4th year option and nearly all teams do for their first round picks. Fundamentals don't magically get better in a dramatic way. It just doesn't really happen.

Skill sets don't shift in large leaps either. They tend to happen progressively. Two steps forward and one step back. Toppin going from a zero defender to a league average defender will take time neither the Knicks nor Toppin has to give. Maybe he gets there, slowly over a period of years. In which case the Knicks were nothing more than a FARM TEAM some other mother****ing franchise could reap the benefit of the Knicks investment, blood and sweat.

How does Toppin find a pathway beyond MINIMAL INPUT? To move past minimal input, he needs minutes on the court. To get minutes, he needs to be able to defend his own weight, at a baseline, at a league average level, to appease his Defense First/Defense Always head coach. To do that, he needs to be more fundamental and skilled. That takes time, if it ever happens at all, and it's not going to happen in one offseason, probably not two offseasons. Maybe never. You claim there needs to be more than "minimal input" but give no practical reason ( what's going to change here?) as to how that's going to happen in a logical and logistical manner.

You want to push the idea that there is NOT ENOUGH INFORMATION on Toppin. What more information is needed? He can't help the Knicks win basketball games. If they give him extended minutes he's going to set the team defense on fire and that team defense is a massive reason why the Knicks did so much better this past season. How much ****ing bloodshed will Toppin getting eviscerated, night after night by hard top heroes like Cassius Stanley, Chris Chiozza and Markus Howard, on token desperate arms windmilling like a dying pigeon bull**** defense will you need to see before you accept that the minimal input is happening BECAUSE TOPPIN DOESN'T HAVE BASELINE BASKETBALL SKILLS NOR FUNDAMENTALS.

How many games must our beloved Knicks lose so you can verify that Toppin can't shoot, can't dribble, can't defend, can't post up, can't create his own shot, and on and on and on to the point of feeling like it's an educated analysis beyond WHAT'S PLAINLY OBVIOUS TO THE NAKED HUMAN EYE?

But Toppin can win a dunk contest! Look at his high flying alley oops when he can load up and maximize his best ability - running really fast in a straight line for a tall guy!

The Knicks could have hired Jordan Kilganon and paid him what? 80K a year. 100K a year? To travel with the team and give him a hotel room and food and medical benefits and have him dunk before games to get ohhs and ahhhs from fans.

If the Knicks wanted dunking excitement, one thing Toppin can do, they could have bought it for peanuts and DIDN'T HAVE TO SET THE 8TH OVERALL PICK IN 2020 ON FIRE FOR IT

I do not wish Obi Toppin ill will as a person. He seems like a genuinely committed, respectful, dedicated and hard working young man. But I wish he was some other team's problem. Many of you wish he was some other team's problem right now. I'm sure as **** Brock Aller, Thibs and Leon Rose wished he was some other team's problem right now.

I don't expect the Knicks to hit on each and every draft pick. But JFC, at least pick a guy with some basic fundamental basketball skills. Is that too much to ask here?

Why is it realistic that Julius Randle could improve but Toppin is already doomed? Julius played poorly his first two seasons before gradually improving the next two? He then made a big leap this season at 26 years old. I get that Julius was younger when he came out of college - but he showed very little at first. Given that Randle hurt himself in his first game - you could argue Toppin has already shown more :)

Also, I think it's worth noting that Toppin was a late bloomer physically. He reportedly was like 6'2" near the end of high school when he grew. I mention this because it's not like he was 6'9" at 15 (some like players) and here he is still not that developed at 23. If he works hard - he will likely improve. I do understand the concern about lateral quickness and he is still raw as he relied heavily on his size/athleticism in college. There is an adjustment - let's see if he can improve this coming season.

Obi really needs the perfect situation out there for him to be successful. It’s going to take him mirroring Karl Malones game to succeed. He needs a knock down jumper and run the floor. His the epitome of a tweener.

That said I think this summer will really be huge for Obi and IQ. Guys always make a leap after playing with the selects or olympics. It’s really about confidence for Obi.

I don’t think anyone is untouchable except RJ. His leap this year was extraordinary. IQ looks to be an elite heat check guy, I’m not sure if starter is in the cards. I’m not sure RJ Hampton doesn’t end up being a top 10 player in this draft.

Hard work is the only thing that gets this team where they need to go, outworking everyone. Hopefully Knox and Mitch can work out with these guys this summer and they can all take that leap together. W

Randle - 11.3 pts, 10.2 rebounds, 43% FG, 28% 3pt FG, 71.5% FT, 1.8 Ass, 0.7 Steals, 0.4 Blocks, 1.8 TOV, 3.0 PF - 28 minutes per game

Toppin - 4.1 pts, 2.2 rebounds, 50% FG, 30.6% 3pt FG, 73.1% FT, 0.5 Ass, 0.3 Steals, 0.2 Blocks, 0.4 TOV, 0.9 PF - 11 minutes per game

Of course impossible to compare as diff teams, different ages, etc - but the shooting is positive for such limited minutes

jskinny35 wrote:I simply ask why you think one player can improve and the other is unable to? I

I asked about why Toppin can't improve from a rookie season. .... Most rookies don't play stellar defense and there is no argument he would have to improve to earn more minutes. What you wrote above is an unproven opinion that is probably correct IMO - but doesn't answer why Toppin doesn't deserve a chance to work hard and build on his rookie year. working - as there are other issues (eg roster fit, no PG) but now that the playoffs kind of exposed his approach - it's time to shift things IMO.

If Toppin can hit the 15 footer (not just an occasional kick out 3), work off the pick n roll, improve his defensive effort and use his athleticism/strengths to outrun and outhustle in a more motion offense - don't see why that wouldn't help our team and is considered unrealistic.

If Obi Toppin plays more than 11 minutes a game next season, can he improve on some of his counting stats and efficiencies?

Yes.

But you want a "Yes" without any other context.

The context is

1) How much improvement and against what actual starting point?

Enes Kanter, when he was with the Knicks was one of the worst pick and roll defenders in the NBA. He was clearly the worst if you factored in players who were actual starters and how many minutes he played and his centralized role on the team at the time. If you said Kanter can be a 10 percent better pick and roll defender in a season and a half, that might be great for a guy who was starting out as a league average pick and roll defender. It's not saying much when you starting at rock bottom.

2) What are the trade offs for that level of usage?

Ricky Davis could have scored 30 points a game and could have done so for a decade. If you gave him unlimited shots ( he was a shotjacker of unreal proportions), ignored his horrific shot selection, denied that he alienated and pissed off and froze out his teammates, and generally his franchises, the league administration, refs, agents, the collective of coaches, the brands, the media and large number of fans all despised him.

3) What is the progressive pathway?

If someone said RJ Barrett can average 20 points a game next season, well he scored about 14 a game as a rookie and close to 18 this season. You see a general trend of improvement in his efficiencies and counting stats across most of his metrics. The Knicks also have some key free agents who just might not be back and it's unclear who will be on the roster. This is not the dynasty Spurs nor Warriors where the top 5-6 players were pretty much determined season in and season out for a multiple season run. It's NOT a stretch to say he might become a 20 point a game scorer in that full context.

You can say most rookies don't play good defense and have trouble with their long range shooting. And that's true. And that might operate as a defense of Toppin WITHOUT context. But what is his STARTING POINT? What are the TRADE OFFS? Where is the PROGRESSIVE PATHWAY?

Obi Toppin is now a professional basketball player. He doesn't "deserve" jack ****.

YOU KEEP WHAT YOU KILL.

It's that simple. No one gives a **** about why a player can't produce. Over a year ago, someone here said Dennis Smith Jr had his mother in law die so his third full season in the league just "didn't count" Who the **** says something like that?

Listen, on a personal level, people in general will sympathize with the day to day struggles of just being a human being. Life can be brutal and hard. This is NOT about that. You can sympathize with someone as a PERSON outside of the game but still hold them to the fire for not producing on the court. No one gives a **** why. Excuses mean nothing. Late growth spurt. Someone died. Grew up poor. Went to a ****ty college program. Didn't get enough good coaching. Had bad luck with injuries. No one gives a ****. You produce or you don't. If you don't deliver results, the team will find someone who will.

Many of you are not retired like Briggs and I and a few others here. If you don't pay your mortgage, what happens to you? It won't take long before the bank sends law enforcement to your house and kicks you the **** out. Maybe you had bad luck with the pandemic. Or your health took a turn. Or your industry had some bizarre widespread event that collapsed it's market. Or you had a string of financial issues all hit at once. Or you got ****ed over in workplace politics. Or you ended up with a boss or manager who had it out for you for a good reason or a bad reason or no reason. Does the bank give a ****? Even for those of us retired, what happens if Briggs and I and a few others stop paying our property taxes or utilities or regular taxes? Do you think the IRS gives a flying **** why it's happening?

All this excuse making for Toppin and Frank Ntilikina and Dennis Smith Jr and Enes Kanter and Trey Burke and Mudiay and Kevin Knox and STAT and on and on and on and on and on and on here on UK for ****ing years and years by quite a few of you.

You deliver or you don't. If you don't, you get a very short rope where you will be replaced. That's life.

Many of you succeeded in life, even some of you from humble and brutal beginnings, even if it was completely unfair, because you found a way to deliver no matter what. You didn't make excuses, you found a way to prove your value and worth and carved a place in this world for yourself to protect you and your family and your kids and the people you love. Imagine where you would be if you spent all that time talking about and moaning about what you didn't get, what you didn't start with and what was unfair about life in general.

What is the PROGRESSIVE PATHWAY here?

Thibs is known for running a very slow pace. This is established over time. Toppin needs a version of Nellieball that Thibs doesn't run and the league trends don't support anymore. Where is this magical motion offense coming from with Randle and RJB as the two main offensive engines on the team? Where has Toppin shown he can ease into a logical uptick in hitting said 15 footer consistently? It's not a high value shot in the modern NBA. What the hell comprises "Defensive Effort"?

Toppin doesn't rotate well. Saying Toppin showed signs of rotating better at the end of the season is a potential progressive pathway. But he didn't. At Dayton, Toppin relied on being so much stronger and faster than everyone to try to out power/out muscle and out athlete everyone in recovery. There were concerns about his general build in his frame, but he can't "flip his hips" well, he can't change directions on a dime at the level needed to operate at NBA game speed. He crosses his feet up far too much for a professional athlete, much less one called "pro ready", much less one who is already 23 and touted as "polished" The ****ty part is a mediocre high school wrestling coach, not even talking a low level basketball coach, could point out where Toppin's use of his size is totally broken. And his instinctive defense stance has been honed for years and is ingrained in his reactions and his muscle memory. Trying fixing some **** like that at this point. Most of his highlights happen when he's running fast in a straight line and with massive gaps in front of him. And given his defensive woes, he has a weak core. You can see it as other players rag doll him around at will.

You want Toppin to outrun and outmuscle people in a league where you can't get away with just trying to bulldoze people by trying to outrun and muscle him. If he was Steven Adams or a Monster Big like Nurkic, then saying to outmuscle someone might be useful. If he had the wheels of De'Aaron Fox or Ja Morant, then it might make sense to say to try to outrun people. But none of that is true.

You just seem to want to split hairs and conjure up a type of play and a type of progress that Toppin hasn't shown, the Knicks aren't going to use and contradicts everything Thibs has shown as a head coach in the NBA.

But sure, let the Knicks and Thibs try it your way. Let them believe Toppin "deserves" more playing time, not earning it, not being told he can only keep what he kills, but because he's entitled to it. And when the team defense gets cooked night after night, how many losses need to pile up before you've decided it's now more than an unproven opinion that Obi Toppin lacks basic and fundamental basketball skills.

He can't help this team win basketball games. All the excuses in the world won't change that.

TripleThreat wrote:

jskinny35 wrote:I simply ask why you think one player can improve and the other is unable to? I

I asked about why Toppin can't improve from a rookie season. .... Most rookies don't play stellar defense and there is no argument he would have to improve to earn more minutes. What you wrote above is an unproven opinion that is probably correct IMO - but doesn't answer why Toppin doesn't deserve a chance to work hard and build on his rookie year. working - as there are other issues (eg roster fit, no PG) but now that the playoffs kind of exposed his approach - it's time to shift things IMO.

If Toppin can hit the 15 footer (not just an occasional kick out 3), work off the pick n roll, improve his defensive effort and use his athleticism/strengths to outrun and outhustle in a more motion offense - don't see why that wouldn't help our team and is considered unrealistic.

If Obi Toppin plays more than 11 minutes a game next season, can he improve on some of his counting stats and efficiencies?

Yes.

But you want a "Yes" without any other context. Are you assuming or do you think I actually wrote that? (I did not)

The context is

1) How much improvement and against what actual starting point?

Enes Kanter, when he was with the Knicks was one of the worst pick and roll defenders in the NBA. He was clearly the worst if you factored in players who were actual starters and how many minutes he played and his centralized role on the team at the time. If you said Kanter can be a 10 percent better pick and roll defender in a season and a half, that might be great for a guy who was starting out as a league average pick and roll defender. It's not saying much when you starting at rock bottom.

I agree Kanter was horrible defensively - but again you're comparing a lumbering big man vet to a 6'8/9" athletic rookie. How can you possibly conclude that someone will be near the worst defensively (like Kanter turned out) as a rookie who's only been the size of a PF for a few years? If you're going to make a comp - can you find someone who is athletic, hard working and displayed a similar defensive deficiency as a rookie and never improved?

2) What are the trade offs for that level of usage?

Ricky Davis could have scored 30 points a game and could have done so for a decade. If you gave him unlimited shots ( he was a shotjacker of unreal proportions), ignored his horrific shot selection, denied that he alienated and pissed off and froze out his teammates, and generally his franchises, the league administration, refs, agents, the collective of coaches, the brands, the media and large number of fans all despised him.

I get the point and agree about a player like Ricky Davis. Again - what does this comp have to do with Toppin? So far he seems hard-working, didn't gripe about limited playing time, seems liked by teammates and shot 50% as a rookie playing limited minutes. Everything you wrote above sounds fine except you keep making points that don't make much sense for comparative purposes.

3) What is the progressive pathway?

If someone said RJ Barrett can average 20 points a game next season, well he scored about 14 a game as a rookie and close to 18 this season. You see a general trend of improvement in his efficiencies and counting stats across most of his metrics. The Knicks also have some key free agents who just might not be back and it's unclear who will be on the roster. This is not the dynasty Spurs nor Warriors where the top 5-6 players were pretty much determined season in and season out for a multiple season run. It's NOT a stretch to say he might become a 20 point a game scorer in that full context.

Fine - point taken but we won't know until next season.

You can say most rookies don't play good defense and have trouble with their long range shooting. And that's true. And that might operate as a defense of Toppin WITHOUT context. But what is his STARTING POINT? What are the TRADE OFFS? Where is the PROGRESSIVE PATHWAY?

IMO - his starting point seems to be an athletically gifted forward that didn't focus on his fundamentals as his physical abilities allowed him to overpower and outquick his competition in college. If he had a suspect motor (see Knox) or was lazy - I would share the same concerns. No question he has a lot of work to do on the defensive end and figuring out his offensive role. I do not see him like a Kenny Walker type that never learned to shoot or do much besides dunk and run the break. He's already proven he can shoot somewhat from deep. I think the reason I am hopeful is that he wasn't used to his strengths and showed an ability to impact the game in reduced minutes. Athletically he can do things that much of the roster is unable to, yet he has to work hard and improve his footwork to truly make a significant impact on winning/losing.

Obi Toppin is now a professional basketball player. He doesn't "deserve" jack ****.

I'm not suggesting they showcase him. I think he will be traded though - as there aren't minutes for him if Randle plays 38 per night.

YOU KEEP WHAT YOU KILL.

It's that simple. No one gives a **** about why a player can't produce. Over a year ago, someone here said Dennis Smith Jr had his mother in law die so his third full season in the league just "didn't count" Who the **** says something like that?

Listen, on a personal level, people in general will sympathize with the day to day struggles of just being a human being. Life can be brutal and hard. This is NOT about that. You can sympathize with someone as a PERSON outside of the game but still hold them to the fire for not producing on the court. No one gives a **** why. Excuses mean nothing. Late growth spurt. Someone died. Grew up poor. Went to a ****ty college program. Didn't get enough good coaching. Had bad luck with injuries. No one gives a ****. You produce or you don't. If you don't deliver results, the team will find someone who will.

Many of you are not retired like Briggs and I and a few others here. If you don't pay your mortgage, what happens to you? It won't take long before the bank sends law enforcement to your house and kicks you the **** out. Maybe you had bad luck with the pandemic. Or your health took a turn. Or your industry had some bizarre widespread event that collapsed it's market. Or you had a string of financial issues all hit at once. Or you got ****ed over in workplace politics. Or you ended up with a boss or manager who had it out for you for a good reason or a bad reason or no reason. Does the bank give a ****? Even for those of us retired, what happens if Briggs and I and a few others stop paying our property taxes or utilities or regular taxes? Do you think the IRS gives a flying **** why it's happening?

I have no idea what all this above has to do with giving a rookie a chance to develop? I'm in my 50s btw...

All this excuse making for Toppin and Frank Ntilikina and Dennis Smith Jr and Enes Kanter and Trey Burke and Mudiay and Kevin Knox and STAT and on and on and on and on and on and on here on UK for ****ing years and years by quite a few of you.

You deliver or you don't. If you don't, you get a very short rope where you will be replaced. That's life.

Many of you succeeded in life, even some of you from humble and brutal beginnings, even if it was completely unfair, because you found a way to deliver no matter what. You didn't make excuses, you found a way to prove your value and worth and carved a place in this world for yourself to protect you and your family and your kids and the people you love. Imagine where you would be if you spent all that time talking about and moaning about what you didn't get, what you didn't start with and what was unfair about life in general.

Is there a course you're wanting me to sign up for?

What is the PROGRESSIVE PATHWAY here?

Thibs is known for running a very slow pace. This is established over time. Toppin needs a version of Nellieball that Thibs doesn't run and the league trends don't support anymore. Where is this magical motion offense coming from with Randle and RJB as the two main offensive engines on the team? Where has Toppin shown he can ease into a logical uptick in hitting said 15 footer consistently? It's not a high value shot in the modern NBA. What the hell comprises "Defensive Effort"?

Your assessment of Thibs is a valid point but the rest of the league is running a faster pace with spacing/shooting. You could see moments when RJ would try to get out on the break and utilize Toppin and/or IQ and we were much harder to guard. This walk it up slow pace style only really yields championship-type results when the ball dominant player is exceptional (Lebron, CP3). Actually - watching the NBA finals you can see Kris Middleton and Devin Booker as two prime examples of the value of mid-range shooting. Teams need balance so defensives just don't follow the 3pt kick out. Defensive effort to me is committing to personal accountability as well as understanding the team's defensive scheme and objectives. Toppin is capable of this if he is committed. While his fundamentals and defensive instincts need work - he has athleticism that can allow him some margin for error at times (eg can recover). Key is will he work hard enough and want to change the perception or be content with being athletically talented but a limited role player?

Toppin doesn't rotate well. Saying Toppin showed signs of rotating better at the end of the season is a potential progressive pathway. But he didn't. At Dayton, Toppin relied on being so much stronger and faster than everyone to try to out power/out muscle and out athlete everyone in recovery. There were concerns about his general build in his frame, but he can't "flip his hips" well, he can't change directions on a dime at the level needed to operate at NBA game speed. He crosses his feet up far too much for a professional athlete, much less one called "pro ready", much less one who is already 23 and touted as "polished" The ****ty part is a mediocre high school wrestling coach, not even talking a low level basketball coach, could point out where Toppin's use of his size is totally broken. And his instinctive defense stance has been honed for years and is ingrained in his reactions and his muscle memory. Trying fixing some **** like that at this point. Most of his highlights happen when he's running fast in a straight line and with massive gaps in front of him. And given his defensive woes, he has a weak core. You can see it as other players rag doll him around at will.

You want Toppin to outrun and outmuscle people in a league where you can't get away with just trying to bulldoze people by trying to outrun and muscle him. If he was Steven Adams or a Monster Big like Nurkic, then saying to outmuscle someone might be useful. If he had the wheels of De'Aaron Fox or Ja Morant, then it might make sense to say to try to outrun people. But none of that is true.

No, I agree he can't bully people as this is not Division II. I disagree in that he seems to have a little bit of Shawn Marion type athleticism where he can score on the break, hit the occasional three and outhustle/outquick many power forwards. You think Randle is quick enough to guard Toppin if isolated? He's not. Of course there's more to the game than speed but he has tools that I think you either don't recognize or undervalue somewhat.

You just seem to want to split hairs and conjure up a type of play and a type of progress that Toppin hasn't shown, the Knicks aren't going to use and contradicts everything Thibs has shown as a head coach in the NBA.

I have never overestimated his rookie season - I simply disagree with your assessment that he can't improve and become a significant contributor because he has to work on fundamental work. Question is will he get the time to show progress? Lord knows we've waiting 3 seasons for Knox and Frank to show some progress... Can't we give Toppin a 2nd season before declaring he can't? RJ didn't have a stellar rookie season but most had some faith because we could see he was a hard worker. That is all it comes down to and I think we should be able to agree on that at least.

But sure, let the Knicks and Thibs try it your way. Let them believe Toppin "deserves" more playing time, not earning it, not being told he can only keep what he kills, but because he's entitled to it. And when the team defense gets cooked night after night, how many losses need to pile up before you've decided it's now more than an unproven opinion that Obi Toppin lacks basic and fundamental basketball skills.

You keep suggesting this entitled view that I believe Toppin deserves endless minutes. I have never said that. I have said that if Randle is your starting PF and plays 38/48 minutes per game - there's not much room to develop behind that so Toppin will probably get moved as a result. Now I don't want that because I think we've seen the ceiling with Randle in our Giannis type offense setup... but that doesn't mean I believe Toppin deserves anything that he doesn't earn.

He can't help this team win basketball games. All the excuses in the world won't change that.

That remains to be seen but as long as you keep throwing out comps like Toppin and Kanter - I'll keep responding :)