ESOMKnicks wrote:
This is all very true and nice, but as a practical matter, what do you do next? I doubt there is a trade of Randle out there that improves the team. Do we then re-sign him to the max, if we feel he is not worth the max? Do we try to get him to accept a lower offer? But then we risk losing him for nothing to another team, willing to offer him more, and we know that teams have been silly with humongous contracts, through good times and bad. Then what? Go back to square one and build just around RJ? After whiffing on a high draft pick in a generational draft?
What Brock Aller will say to do, based on the best market place decision given the time and place, is to pick up Randle's team option ( he's earned it, I'll give him complete credit for that. ) and then wait and see what happens while the team accrues his Full Bird Rights. Aller will come up with a projection on Randle's future. Will it be an absolute? No, nothing is certain Will it be strong odds of bearing out as he projects? Yes. NBA progression and production trends curve a certain way for a reason.
The reality is Randle is likely better than his first Knicks season but not quite as good as this season. Somewhere in the middle. I believe that's a fair and rational stance given basic resource management in the NBA. The other issue is Randle will likely give you his "this season" in spurts, and give you his "first Knicks season" also in spurts. That doesn't preclude him from potentially being offered a max deal, but he's likely, at most, a "market max player" and not a "franchise max" player.
For example, John Wall is a market max player. He fills the stands and you can build your marketing around him and he can drive you hopefully into the playoffs. But won't win a ring with him and his inconsistency and limitations will make his contract choke out your ability to build a contender around him. He'll help you into a first round or even a rare 2nd round playoff exit but never pull you over the top since you are now a glorified treadmill team.
Steph Curry, Doncic, Jokic, AD, formerly prime Durant and LBJ, those are franchise max players They will help you win a ring and you can still gain all the business side benefits of a market max type player.
What the Knicks should do
1) Pick up the team option
2) Keep trying to amass assets and find good value bargain signings. Try to win in the draft process
3) Evaluate Randle over another full season.
4) Based on the price/AAV/contract total assessed, then consider offering that to Randle if you believe his "middle" trend will lean more this year than his first year. If he won't take it, then consider trading him at the deadline.
5) If you can't trade him at the deadline, hope you can sign and trade him, with his Full Bird Rights, to another team to get something versus nothing
6) If you can't get a sign and trade, you let him walk. Better to let him walk than overpay him against market.
What the Knicks should do to win the most games may or may not be what Leon Rose does or does not do. To be fair, Aller only has to worry about wins in isolation from other business realities. Rose has to think about TV contracts, sponsorships, MSG as a whole, agent interaction, dealing with the league office, keeping Dolan happy, etc, etc.
Do I personally believe Randle is "franchise max" player? No
Do I personally believe Randle is a "market max" player? No
Do I think Randle will regress next season? Yes
Do I think Randle will regress to his horrible first Knicks season baseline? No
This is NOT a decision that needs to be made today. So then the Knicks don't need to make it today. Or even this offseason.
If Randle ends up walking in FA for nothing, what did the Knicks lose. They got him for open cap space, got some solid use out of him, and then he's gone. Certainly I would prefer to get something over nothing, but the Knicks should not feel forced to make a decision because they are afraid they can't find anyone else or draft anyone else worthy otherwise. That's not how successful franchises think. The great teams believe no matter what happens, they'll adjust and keep on trucking forward.
Sit, wait, be patient, observe and be ready to strike. That's it. That's all the front office needs to do.