Knixkik wrote:I agree it may be in our best interest to keep things as clean as possible for another year. TJ would be a great addition but not sure about as a starter due to being a non-factor from 3pt. Honestly I’d start Rose but make sure to have a committee behind him to keep his minutes down if we aren’t going to sign a new starting level PG. TJ just isn’t that. But I like him for this roster. You can honestly even start Burks at PG if we are concerned about Rose going up against starters.

Well you can't have the perfect PG in the starting rotation at the price where I am pinpointing. What can't you be sure about in the non-factor from 3point land? And what about all of the other positive things TJ CAN do much better than Rose in the starting lineup? One aspect of the game can't just be the only determinant IMHO.

What about their defense?
What about their ability to play near 80 games?
What about their ability to run an offense where getting the other guys involved is more important than getting your own shot?
What is changing Thib's decision THIS year versus next to start Rose?
To be fair, has Rose had a really good 35 game run at shooting from distance or has he displayed that type of consistency from 3 previous to showing up on the Knicks team?

I don't watch TJ at all but he seems like a guy who is a high metrics player. I'll let other speak to it (last article is the one to read in full, lots of videos).

From only a couple months ago:

https://www.nba.com/news/defensive-player-ladder-sidney-moncrief-qa

5. T.J. McConnell, Indiana Pacers

Counting stats might have been eclipsed by advanced metrics for the slide-rule set, but when you lead the league both in steals per game (1.85) and total steals (72) and in deflections (3.9 per) and loose balls recovered (1.4, 1T), and you’re doing it all off the bench in 25.4 minutes per game, that’s good for a Defensive Player rung. Along with this from Indianapolis Star beat scribe J. Michael on the feisty reserve point guard: “If the NBA had an All-Madden Team, T.J. McConnell would be a lock. If it had the pound-for-pound rankings such as boxing … McConnell would be champ. He’s significantly shorter than everyone else. He’s paid significantly less, too. … There’s what he does that is seen, such as his steals and assists, and then there’s the unseen. McConnell injects energy into everyone’s veins. Play up to his speed or get left behind.”

https://www.indystar.com/story/sports/nba/pacers/2021/03/20/indiana-pacers-resemble-well-oiled-machine-beat-miami-heat/4707941001/

All-Madden/Pound-for-Pound champ

If the NBA had an All-Madden Team, T.J. McConnell would be a lock.

If it had the pound-for-pound rankings such as boxing — a mythical creation to recognize skilled smaller fighters such as Sugar Ray Robinson, who'd long been overshadowed and undercompensated compared to heavyweights — McConnell would be champ.

He's significantly shorter than everyone else. He’s paid significantly less, too. When is the last time he has dunked in a game? Has he ever dunked in a game?

There's what he does that is seen, such as his steals and assists, and then there's the unseen. McConnell injects energy into everyone's veins. Play up to his speed or get left behind. He went at Goran Dragic, an aged and poor defender, and got the shots he wanted around the rim. He made 8 of 9.

"He just changed the game. He really does," McDermott said. "He pushes the pace, gets everyone involved and it sparks our energy. He completely changed the momentum of the game and he got each and every one of us going."

https://theleadsm.com/mcconnells-magic-defies-logic/

McConnell’s Magic Defies Logic

Tasty Metrics

Wrestler Scott Steiner once said, “The numbers don’t lie, and they spell disaster for you”. That is the essence of TJ’s effect on opponents.
Defense

McConnell leads the NBA in steal percentage, defined as “an estimate of the percentage of opponent possessions that end with a steal by the player when they were on the floor” (Basketball-Reference). TJ has an 26% higher metric than second place Larry Nance Jr. A 6’1 guard with a 6’0 wingspan leads the NBA in steal percentage- and by a wide margin. That is neat.

Offense
Dimer

McConnell trails only James Harden in assists per 36 minutes. Of that top ten, only Chris Paul turns the ball over at a lower rate than TJ. McConnell leads all NBA bench players in assists per game. It seems he can pass.

On top of everything, McConnell is efficient at what he does. He knows his strengths and plays to them. TJ far and away has the lowest usage rate of any point guard in the NBA. He takes smart shots, good care of the ball, and creates something from nothing. He pushes the pace as well as anyone in the league, but as indicated by his turnover statistics, is nearly always under control. Here is McConnell going 60 to zero and calmly finding the open man:

McConnell often gets his teammates good looks either on the break, in transition or using the pick-and-roll. Even at 4.5 PPG, TJ is a threat to score out of the P-n-R, and defenses respect his short shot. McConnell smartly uses this to his advantage, as seen against the Bucks.

A selective bucket

Scoring is generally best left to his teammates, but McConnell will go on speedy spurts in which he beats the defense down the floor or gets to his mid-range spots. He knocks them down, too. Both this season, and for his career, TJ shoots above 50% from the field. He pushes the pace but does not force the issue. Shots 15 feet and in are TJ’s specialty– strange for a player of his height.

Knicks have a good thing going at the moment, and they got better as the season went

I don't think we'll change for some marginal upgrade or some hope that someone like Monk transforms. i know we may need to do some of that but only if our current guys leave -- which they may or may not do.

if we make a move i suspect it will be much bigger akin to Butler to Minny. I would like to think AD to the Lakers. big game hunting

BigDaddyG wrote:I noticed...no one has brought up our most important re-signing. We need to sign Theo to a 10 year, vet minimum contract, pronto!

with yearly NTC

BigDaddyG wrote:

EwingsGlass wrote:

knicks1248 wrote:

BigDaddyG wrote:Another guy the Knicks could take a flyer on in a make good deal is Malik Monk. He definitely isn't a point guard, but he could replace Burk. Or do you guys think he's to redundant?

I don't think he's much of an upgrade over BURK, IMO if your not going to resign a guy, then you should be replacing him with someone a hell of a lot better

I don't think he replaces Burk. Knicks are pretty jammed up at combo guard and a but light at SF. Not opposed to Monk, but it would be more as a replacement for DRose or IQ in the second unit, if one gets moved to the SL.

If the Knicks follow OP's position and basically punt another year but also resign Rose/Noel/Burks/Bullock/Gibson and otherwise facilitate other teams for more assets, they end up with a 15 man rotation of (ignore who actually starts for a moment. Clearly should maximize the first 10-man rotation based on Thibs' usage:

Rose/Vildoza /______
Barrett/Quickley /_____
Burks/Bullock/ Knox
Randle/Toppin/ Gibson
Robinson/Noel/Pelle
2Way _______/ ________

DP19/DP21/DP32/DP58

Monk is young, offers full-court transition skills and has improved his three. He doesn't offer the same level of playmaking as Burks, but his scoring has been on par or better this season. I should also add I'm assuming Burks might get a multi-year deal close to the mid-level elsewhere. I'm choosing Reggie over Burks if it comes down to that. I'd definitely want to keep Burks at the right price, but we'll have to see how things play out. Ideally, you'd want replace a player by signing someone a hell of lot better, but the talent pool in a given year won't allow for it and you need to improvise.

I’m not opposed to Monk at all. I just don’t think his minutes come from the same place as Burks. I don’t think Monk can slot out to SF. I also have Bullock ahead of Burks. If you are moving IQ to the SL and swapping Monk into the second unit SG, I am fine. I think Monk’s minutes will be in competition with IQ unless I am missing something.

EwingsGlass wrote:

BigDaddyG wrote:

EwingsGlass wrote:

knicks1248 wrote:

BigDaddyG wrote:Another guy the Knicks could take a flyer on in a make good deal is Malik Monk. He definitely isn't a point guard, but he could replace Burk. Or do you guys think he's to redundant?

I don't think he's much of an upgrade over BURK, IMO if your not going to resign a guy, then you should be replacing him with someone a hell of a lot better

I don't think he replaces Burk. Knicks are pretty jammed up at combo guard and a but light at SF. Not opposed to Monk, but it would be more as a replacement for DRose or IQ in the second unit, if one gets moved to the SL.

If the Knicks follow OP's position and basically punt another year but also resign Rose/Noel/Burks/Bullock/Gibson and otherwise facilitate other teams for more assets, they end up with a 15 man rotation of (ignore who actually starts for a moment. Clearly should maximize the first 10-man rotation based on Thibs' usage:

Rose/Vildoza /______
Barrett/Quickley /_____
Burks/Bullock/ Knox
Randle/Toppin/ Gibson
Robinson/Noel/Pelle
2Way _______/ ________

DP19/DP21/DP32/DP58

Monk is young, offers full-court transition skills and has improved his three. He doesn't offer the same level of playmaking as Burks, but his scoring has been on par or better this season. I should also add I'm assuming Burks might get a multi-year deal close to the mid-level elsewhere. I'm choosing Reggie over Burks if it comes down to that. I'd definitely want to keep Burks at the right price, but we'll have to see how things play out. Ideally, you'd want replace a player by signing someone a hell of lot better, but the talent pool in a given year won't allow for it and you need to improvise.

I’m not opposed to Monk at all. I just don’t think his minutes come from the same place as Burks. I don’t think Monk can slot out to SF. I also have Bullock ahead of Burks. If you are moving IQ to the SL and swapping Monk into the second unit SG, I am fine. I think Monk’s minutes will be in competition with IQ unless I am missing something.

EwingsGlass wrote:1) Valid point that they do not need to “force” the issue and make bad signings. I think your spreadsheet clearly demonstrates that it isn’t a complete “use it or lose it” to the extent the Knicks don’t spend freely this offseason.

2) Could you explain the $3.4mm for Robinson? Is that his cap hold?

3) Maintaining the core on 1 year contracts would bring Rose and Bullock to Bird Rights and would make the others early birds. Worth considering what those cap holds are.

4) One aspect of cap management being given up is the ability to use exceptions (MLE, drafted player as prime examples). I think of cap management as both cap space and potential salary. If you accept that salary and skill are generally more correlated than not - the ability to exceed the cap and add more salary should add better talent depth. Theoretically, you could have quite a bit more salary than you list in 20/23 if the Knicks were to find good salary adds this year and utilize the exceptions in 22/23.

In theory, the Knicks would be in a better position to make deadline trades by adding value players and not just “facilitating” this year. Goal should be to maximize roster talent every year. I don’t really believe in the “waiting” game any longer.

Well it is about what you can get in trades and who you can sign in the FA market. Who do you like this year that will propel you over what is available next year?

EwingsGlass wrote:
2) Could you explain the $3.4mm for Robinson? Is that his cap hold?

Not sure if this question was answered so I'll be glad to.

Robinson expires in 2021-22, at a salary of $1.8m.

He'll become an unrestricted free agent for 2022-23, and while the Knicks didn't sign him to a rookie scale contract (those are only for as rounders), they did sign him to a four year deal and so they have his full Bird Rights.

All free agents have a "free agent amount" for their former team, and in the case of a FA you want to keep, it serves as a cap hold.

As a full Bird FA NOT coming off a rookie scale contract, his free agent amount is 190% of this previous salary, so $1.8m x 190% = $3.4m.

So that serves as his cap hold if they want to retain his Bird Rights up until he signs a new deal.

So in practice, if the Knicks have $60m of cap room, they could spend $56.6m on other players until they reached the cap, and THEN sign Robinson up to his maximum (or anything in-between), going over the cap to do so.

BRIGGS wrote:I like Payne over TJ( and I like tj)
Reasons
He played great on the best team
When he started he played well
He’s an excellent 3 point shooter which fits in here better. Taller longer defender
Excellent tO to assist ratio
He rebounds 5 per 36 min.
But I’m not interested in 1 year. I’m interested in a 2-3 year run. That’s includes guys like bullock rose noel and Burks.
I also like the thought of maneuvering a trade with Minnesota for naz reid. I think we need a tad more from the 5 position against top tier teams. He’s an excellent rebounder very good shot blocker but he brings much more to the table on the offensive end all the way to 3.I’m willing to give up a first rd draft pick for him.
I think adding payne and Reid would inject the team without changing it— the key to cohesion.

I'm warming to Payne. The Suns have been very good when he's on the floor. He's been one of the best backup PGs this year (along with Brunson.) He's been very good overall. The question becomes, is he a starting level PG? Does his production change in a different role? And i agree about injecting the team without changing it. This team can continue to get better with continuity, depth, and improvement from the youth, until a true superstar demands a move here. If Randle sustains this level of play, and Barrett, Quickley, and Toppin make a big jump next year, this is a 50+ win team over a full season.

fishmike wrote:

Knixkik wrote:

BRIGGS wrote:I like Payne over TJ( and I like tj)
Reasons
He played great on the best team
When he started he played well
He’s an excellent 3 point shooter which fits in here better. Taller longer defender
Excellent tO to assist ratio
He rebounds 5 per 36 min.
But I’m not interested in 1 year. I’m interested in a 2-3 year run. That’s includes guys like bullock rose noel and Burks.
I also like the thought of maneuvering a trade with Minnesota for naz reid. I think we need a tad more from the 5 position against top tier teams. He’s an excellent rebounder very good shot blocker but he brings much more to the table on the offensive end all the way to 3.I’m willing to give up a first rd draft pick for him.
I think adding payne and Reid would inject the team without changing it— the key to cohesion.

I'm warming to Payne. The Suns have been very good when he's on the floor. He's been one of the best backup PGs this year (along with Brunson.) He's been very good overall. The question becomes, is he a starting level PG? Does his production change in a different role? And i agree about injecting the team without changing it. This team can continue to get better with continuity, depth, and improvement from the youth, until a true superstar demands a move here. If Randle sustains this level of play, and Barrett, Quickley, and Toppin make a big jump next year, this is a 50+ win team over a full season.

Dont. Payne sucks. 50 bucks says Luca is better. Shane Larkin would be a beast in this lineup Payne-Booker-Bridges-Crowder-Ayton
Thats a scrap heap guy. Just pay Reggie for 2 years and draft some guys

If this were another situation I would say draft Jared Butler (trade up a little if needed) and see if he’s better than Payton soon. But with Vildoza coming in , I’m not sure they will carry multiple rookie PGs on a thibs team.

Jmpasq wrote:This doesnt bode well for us keeping Noel and or Mitch.

“They are going to give Allen $100 million or more in a contract extension. Having both wasn’t going to work,” he wrote, referring to the Cavs having both Allen and Andre Drummond on the roster. “Trading for Allen (another bargain price) was a good idea long term, but made life rough for J.B. Bickerstaff due to how Drummond reacted.”

We need to go cheap at center so we can keep a stable of wings. 20 million for the position is to much

I was just about to put this. Allen is probably a bit better or worth a bit more than our centers, but not too much so those who expect Mitch to sign for $ 7-8M per season should be given some perspective.

I know a lot of people think he’s not worth that much, but I’m more than happy with Mitch for say $ 12M per.