EwingsGlass wrote:
It begs the question what the value of midlevel picks will actually be. I think many teams will have to use cash management as a factor in their decisions. Whether that means drafting foreign players and keeping them overseas or trading picks for other assets.
It's a good question you are asking here. The problem is no one can project how the college game will go. Part of the NBA feeder system is that draftees have been playing uninterrupted organized ball their entire lives. So universities will have a hard time keeping the college game going if students can't even go to class normally. This will have long term ripples into the international basketball community. The high profile college sports generate revenue to the point where they pay for the less profitable sports. In many cases, it's full subsidization. While losing the Judo and badminton teams don't kill basketball directly, it kills the feeder system for the Olympics and international games that do support the NBA indirectly. Talent scarcity for the NBA requires scouring the entire world for good talent. The international basketball community is integral to do this.
So a pick in the next two drafts might be insanely more valuable than a pick three years from now. OKC has a ****load of picks, but we also don't know what the college game will look like in 5 years.
You also have young guys now in a position to be idle. That's ****ing dangerous. Many pro athletes or prospects would spiral without a formalized structure to shape their lives. Think of a horny and bored college athlete without a schedule and hangs out with the next JR Smith type teammate?
Without the college game, there would need to be a "Showcase" league for players who can't play the college game. The NBA lowering the age requirement is another thing that will spur this. However a showcase type league would force the NBA to employ these players. Which leads to the tricky issue of service time and reasonable accomodation ( you need to house, feed and give medical care to all involved) Eventually you'll have a player who will get a legal team and challenge the current draft system, which relies on amateur to pro transition, not paid employee to pro transition.
George Hill might have also inadvertently bombed the college game. I don't see a return to March Madness, but now college teams face the risk, that even if they restart play, that there will be a walkout over the next shooting in their timeline. The college game does not operate the way the NBA does in terms of discipline. College kids will emulate their pro counterparts and this would have a destabilizing impact on the college game, their network contracts, then the NBA network contracts then the NBA itself.
This is a weak draft. But it might be the last draft for a long time that operates under traditional "cost certainty"
Long story short, the Knicks are a cash rich team. Given the league will be forced to have major roster increases across the board for the pandemic, the Knicks should buy as many late 2nds as possible. And offer more money to UDFAs than what market forces would typically dictate.
As for the league financially, the biggest concerns are
A) Immediately, the tax line falling.
B) Medium term, the risk of financial collapse of some franchises ( I think the Jazz might be ****ed) and dilution of the playoffs to hedge against the loss of playoff game count/revenue
C) Long term, the double hit of losing gate receipts plus getting totally hammered on the next TV deal which will decrease valuation of all NBA teams
9/12/2020 8:43 PM