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Phil has gone all in - the official Man up thread
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franco12
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Phil has made a number of ballsy, all in moves. He's given out some very big contracts to players old and injured. He traded away a player in Robin Lopez who epitomized lunch pail workman like production and Jerian Grant for a former MVP & All star in Derrick Rose- a player who has yet to play 82 games in a season and last played a 'full season' in 2010-11.

The Knicks have gone all in to win this year, and the next several.

It's time to Man up and own your opinion.

What does this team need to accomplish over the next 4 years for Phil's moves & gambles to be considered a success- or at least not a failure? Not what you expect or hope for, but the minimum that the knicks need to accomplish to justify Phil's moves:

Championship or bust
Play offs all 4 years, 1st round exits ok
Play offs all 4 years, 1st round exits not ok
Play offs at least 3 years, must advance to finals at least 1x
Must get to the finals at least once
50 wins in at least 2 seasons, advance past 1st round 2x
No under 500 seasons
Must remain healthy & not have Noah/Rose/Lee turn into Houston 2.0
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Panos
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7/5/2016  10:25 AM    LAST EDITED: 7/5/2016  10:26 AM
What we wish for, and what would be a success for this group are two different things.
Sure, i wish for the team to make a run to the ECF. Maybe with some luck it is even possible. Or maybe it's not. But given the team's recent history, and knowing that Phil gambled on trading for Rose and signing Noah, both of whom might never be better than average players in this league again means that 4 years of first round exits would be a great success for this group.
Furthermore, the poll is a little flawed in that I don't expect this group to be together for 4 years. Rose has to prove a lot to be back the year after next. So at least the starting PG may be a very different one, and they should have a significant amount of money to sign a new one (or upgrade at center or SG if Jennings shows something.
Personally, i refuse to get my hope up about Rose, and to a lesser degree Noah. We've been here to many times before. Penny Hardaway, Steve Francis, Amare, Houston. Players generally don't come back from multiple years of injury to regain form as impact players. If they do in this case, and the Knicks make the playoffs, it was great luck, and that can only be called a success.
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crzymdups
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7/5/2016  10:27 AM    LAST EDITED: 7/5/2016  10:28 AM
fishmike wrote:
crzymdups wrote:People were (laughably) worried we were locked into Robin Lopez's contract and that we overpaid. Those same people then lamented that we traded such a good value contract. The handwringing around here is ridiculous.

The Knicks are trying to compete. "Building the right way" amounts to a heck of a lot of luck. We got KP. We wouldn't have gotten him if the Sixers or Lakers wanted him. The Spurs wouldn't necessarily be regarded as one of the best franchises of all-time if they hadn't lucked into the first pick in the draft the year Tim Duncan was available - they got him because David Robinson and Sean Elliot both unexpectedly went down with injuries. OKC did everything right. They drafted Durant, Westbrook, Ibaka, Harden - they lost them all due to bad luck in the playoffs.

Phil took a risk - there's no reason not to. Hoarding assets for a day that may never come or trying to purposely lose for draft position is lame. Just ask Sam Hinkie how well that works. The Sixers just did that for the past four years. Are they in better shape than the Knicks? Are they really? What do they have to show for it? A whole lot less than the Knicks who got lucky with KP the one year they had a top 4 pick.

what was that risk again? That Grant turns into a move the needle PG? That Lopez's value skyrockets above the last first round pick value that Thad Young got? The risk is that this whole thing fails and we are back in the lottery next year, and according to the "we should have grown it organically" crowd that is a good thing. So outline the risk again for me please? I am a bit sketchy on those details...

It was a calculated risk - the risk that a team built around the potential recovery of DRose and Noah is better than the steady middle of the pack play of Rolo and the likely improvement of Grant. Rolo and Grant were the safer play - with far lower upside. IMHO if everything went great with Rolo and Grant and we got improvement from KP and were able to add a SG... we'd win, what, 42 games? Maybe be close to a playoffs spot? Now we have a chance to win as many as 52 games if it all breaks right, but we could also have a tough season if there are injuries.

There is risk there to me, but it is absolutely worthwhile IMHO. And as we've all mentioned, if the risk fails, at least we are rewarded with a nice draft pick in the 2017 draft.

I think the upside is absolutely worth the risk. The risk is minimal to me. It's the kind of risk you have to take to win.

Folks here are so risk averse, I get the sense that they'd be upset if we were Warriors fans and the Warriors just "broke up the team" to chase Durant.

¿ △ ?
SwishAndDish13
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7/5/2016  10:31 AM
ChuckBuck wrote:
SwishAndDish13 wrote:This is pretty misleading because we didn't go all-in. We actually have pretty good flexibility out of the moves that were made. The poll is a good one. Making the playoffs the next 3 years with at least 1 sustained run would be enjoyable and a nice change of pace.

Good flexibility how? Didn't we lock in injury prone Noah for 4 years and already 30 year old Courtney Lee for 4 years also? Also, Lance Thomas is 28 and locked in for 4 years as well.

Besides possibly flipping Rose for another point guard next season, there isn't much wiggle room to get out from these potentially albatross contracts.

Anyone thinking this is a win for the future type team is delusional.

Rose gives us flexibility for next summer, plus the cap bump, plus a potential tiering system. That's a decent start. We were going to need to spend a lot this off-season to meet the cap floor, so short of doing something outside the box and offering Jennings 15 mil for 1 year, and other players way over market value for 1 yr while ensuring we retain all cap space what you have continued to advocate was never an option. The contracts we have signed have generally been better than other teams.

In regards to your comment that I bolded, I don't know how to respond to it because it isn't really inline with what I posted. Clearly they are trying to win now, but they have left themselves reasonable flexibility. It's unlikely Rose is the long term answer and we have more than sufficient space to get whoever we want to run the point after this season.
newyorker4ever
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7/5/2016  10:55 AM
But the team we have now won't be the team we have next year so it's hard to predict what this team will be for the next 4 years. It would be easier to ask this question the following off season when we have our point guard of the future (which i don't think will be D.Rose) and whatever other free agents get signed or traded for and with our 1st round pick in the 2017 draft.

So i'll make my prediction on what i think this team can do next year. I think with good health we can win 50-55 games and make the 2nd round of the playoffs with a chance of making the ECF but again, that's with good health.
CrushAlot
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7/5/2016  10:58 AM
I don't see these moves as going all in. The Rose trade surprised me and I didn't like it when it happened but it opened the door to the moves that have happened since. That trade wasn't like when Walsh sent the ninth pick in the draft and another first rounder with Jared Jeffries for cap space. The Knicks have Rose and Holiday on one year deals. They added a second round pick. Jennings is on a one year deal. I was hoping for a Courtney Lee signing when I thought Rambis was still going to be coach so I have no issues with that deal. I like the Noah deal. There are obvious injury risks but leadership, heart, defense and passing are things this team needs. If he is reasonably healthy I think it is at worse a push with Lopez leaving. I loved that he resigned Lance to a below market deal for four years. The guy deserves to be paid and to have stability.
The Knicks have gone all in in the past. It has always involved using up all cap space for multiple years and the trading away of future draft picks and young players. Grant was traded in the Rose deal but no picks were given up and the Knicks are projected to have 33 mil in cap space next year with their picks. I am not sure how that is all in or resembles anything close to it especially after having to wait out the results of going all in in the past for many years.
I'm tired,I'm tired, I'm so tired right now......Kristaps Porzingis 1/3/18
newyorker4ever
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7/5/2016  10:59 AM
ChuckBuck wrote:Since this is all or nothing team, the worst I'll settle for as a fan is no 1st round exits just to be realistic.

I don't expect the Finals, but I'm willing to let this squad prove me wrong.

As long as the culture is conducive to winning, and KP gets tons of playoffs games under this belt, then overall these moves will be a net positive.

If Phil somehow flips Rose for Russell then you can say job well done. If this is the best Phil can do, the jury is still out on him.

Ok who are you and why did you hack chuckbucks account?? You won't get away with this....lol
NYKBocker
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7/5/2016  11:00 AM
I think this is a 50+ win team that has a chance to impress in the playoffs.
martin
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7/5/2016  11:04 AM
NYKBocker wrote:I think this is a 50+ win team that has a chance to impress in the playoffs.

I think this is fair. Hornacek too a much less talented team in the West to 48 wins.

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newyorker4ever
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7/5/2016  11:07 AM
ChuckBuck wrote:
SwishAndDish13 wrote:This is pretty misleading because we didn't go all-in. We actually have pretty good flexibility out of the moves that were made. The poll is a good one. Making the playoffs the next 3 years with at least 1 sustained run would be enjoyable and a nice change of pace.

Good flexibility how? Didn't we lock in injury prone Noah for 4 years and already 30 year old Courtney Lee for 4 years also? Also, Lance Thomas is 28 and locked in for 4 years as well.

Besides possibly flipping Rose for another point guard next season, there isn't much wiggle room to get out from these potentially albatross contracts.

Anyone thinking this is a win for the future type team is delusional.

I think people need to get over the whole if you're 29 or 30 that you're automatically on the downside of your career because last i checked these guys aren't running backs and this isn't football. There's plenty of players out there playing some of their best basketball at the ages of 32/33 and even 34 which i'm sure if i really wanted to do the homework i could name multiple players that are in their low 30's that are playing really good basketball but i don't really feel like it unless someone wants to say i'm wrong. So can we please stop with that now?
nyk4ever
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7/5/2016  11:07 AM
championship teams are not built over night. not everyone gets it right going through the draft, not everyone gets it right going through free-agency either. the guy who is running our franchise has known nothing BUT winning in his career. i would assume he felt it important to give the guy that he drafted last year (kp) a winning environment around him and support him with good players to aide his progression. losing breeds losing, winning breeds success, im a firm believer in that. the guys that have been brought in this offseason do not have cap-killer contracts. i'm not a huge fan of the years that we gave noah, but i do think we'll get 2 good years out of him and rose is off the books next year. lee's contract will look good for the duration and jennings is on a year deal. this team as currently constructed is not going to win a championship next year but they are going to be a tough team to play for anyone, warriors and cavaliers included, and hopefully going into next year armed with more capspace we'll be attractive to teams after a solid year of 45+ (hopefully) wins. there is no downside to anything phil has done this offseason, my hats off to him.
"OMG - did we just go on a two-trade-wining-streak?" -SupremeCommander
fishmike
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7/5/2016  11:17 AM
Panos wrote:
fishmike wrote:
crzymdups wrote:People were (laughably) worried we were locked into Robin Lopez's contract and that we overpaid. Those same people then lamented that we traded such a good value contract. The handwringing around here is ridiculous.

The Knicks are trying to compete. "Building the right way" amounts to a heck of a lot of luck. We got KP. We wouldn't have gotten him if the Sixers or Lakers wanted him. The Spurs wouldn't necessarily be regarded as one of the best franchises of all-time if they hadn't lucked into the first pick in the draft the year Tim Duncan was available - they got him because David Robinson and Sean Elliot both unexpectedly went down with injuries. OKC did everything right. They drafted Durant, Westbrook, Ibaka, Harden - they lost them all due to bad luck in the playoffs.

Phil took a risk - there's no reason not to. Hoarding assets for a day that may never come or trying to purposely lose for draft position is lame. Just ask Sam Hinkie how well that works. The Sixers just did that for the past four years. Are they in better shape than the Knicks? Are they really? What do they have to show for it? A whole lot less than the Knicks who got lucky with KP the one year they had a top 4 pick.

what was that risk again? That Grant turns into a move the needle PG? That Lopez's value skyrockets above the last first round pick value that Thad Young got? The risk is that this whole thing fails and we are back in the lottery next year, and according to the "we should have grown it organically" crowd that is a good thing. So outline the risk again for me please? I am a bit sketchy on those details...

I thought you loved and had big hopes for Grant.

always liked him and did have hopes. Realistic ones though... I thought he would take a nice step forward under JH. I thought he could be a starting PG. However I acknowledge my hopes vs. perception. Grant was not a good player last year. So while yes my hope was that Grant gets better he's not the level of prospect that losing sets me back years and years.

So while I like him the perspective is he's player taking 20ish and coming off a rookie campaign that didn't inspire.

"winning is more fun... then fun is fun" -Thibs
crzymdups
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7/5/2016  11:19 AM
There's no way to predict the next four years for any team. If you asked a Cleveland fan or an OKC fan to predict their next four years three years ago, I think you would have gotten some amusing answers.
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franco12
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7/5/2016  11:37 AM
crzymdups wrote:There's no way to predict the next four years for any team. If you asked a Cleveland fan or an OKC fan to predict their next four years three years ago, I think you would have gotten some amusing answers.

But I think it would be fair to ask Cleveland - after Lebron came back and became GM and traded for Love, resigned Shumbert & JR - is it fair to expect a championship? Which they got.
fishmike
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7/5/2016  11:40 AM
CrushAlot wrote:I don't see these moves as going all in. The Rose trade surprised me and I didn't like it when it happened but it opened the door to the moves that have happened since. That trade wasn't like when Walsh sent the ninth pick in the draft and another first rounder with Jared Jeffries for cap space. The Knicks have Rose and Holiday on one year deals. They added a second round pick. Jennings is on a one year deal. I was hoping for a Courtney Lee signing when I thought Rambis was still going to be coach so I have no issues with that deal. I like the Noah deal. There are obvious injury risks but leadership, heart, defense and passing are things this team needs. If he is reasonably healthy I think it is at worse a push with Lopez leaving. I loved that he resigned Lance to a below market deal for four years. The guy deserves to be paid and to have stability.
The Knicks have gone all in in the past. It has always involved using up all cap space for multiple years and the trading away of future draft picks and young players. Grant was traded in the Rose deal but no picks were given up and the Knicks are projected to have 33 mil in cap space next year with their picks. I am not sure how that is all in or resembles anything close to it especially after having to wait out the results of going all in in the past for many years.
this... some current assets were given up but no future assets. That's the thing. Everything going out can be quantified. Trading unprotected picks cant be quantified, because there is no way to gauge the value. The only future disaster is that Grant turns into a perennial all star. That is the risk.
"winning is more fun... then fun is fun" -Thibs
crzymdups
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7/5/2016  11:48 AM
franco12 wrote:
crzymdups wrote:There's no way to predict the next four years for any team. If you asked a Cleveland fan or an OKC fan to predict their next four years three years ago, I think you would have gotten some amusing answers.

But I think it would be fair to ask Cleveland - after Lebron came back and became GM and traded for Love, resigned Shumbert & JR - is it fair to expect a championship? Which they got.

Lebron is a very singular player. Very few guys immediately make a team a championship contender all by themselves. Even KD can't say that.

If you're putting down the Knicks off-season by saying it wasn't as good as the Cavs 2014 off-season when they signed Lebron James in Free Agency - then yes, I agree, the Knicks moves are not as good as signing 29yr old Lebron James.

It's going to be a fun team that is potentially a very good team. We still get to see KP develop and we've seen how quickly it is possible to restructure an entire roster around him. We have draft picks. We have two PGs for a year who may well turn out to be very good and capable of manning the spot for the next few years. We have a great value prototypical 3 and D SG locked in. We have Lance Thomas locked in at a very fair deal. We have Hernangomez coming over who may be a good rookie big man and is best friends with KP. We have a bright young coach who understands both the Triangle and how to update the Triangle. Things are not in bad shape at all.

We are not as good in Cleveland... yet... but I think even the most jaded cynic has to admit that if things somehow break right and this team is healthy in the playoffs it can make some noise. Look - if we had given up draft picks to get here, I'd be pissed. But we haven't. We have a good "all-in" season to look forward to and all it cost us was Rolo and Grant - who are nice players, but both guys would be coming off the bench on this team right now if we kept them.

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nixluva
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7/5/2016  12:00 PM
IMO there's no question that Phil has put together a vastly better team. Risk is involved but it's a worthy risk. The potential upside is well worth the risk. Melo and KP will be better with the support of better talent. The team should benefit from the coaching of Hornacek. All in all I can't imagine that Phil could've done much better with what he had to work with. This is one of the best offseason' this team has had and there are still moves to be made.

I think the Knicks are expecting deep playoff runs if they can get to the post season relatively healthy. I believe this team should be highly competitive.
crzymdups
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7/5/2016  2:03 PM
If you asked an Atlanta Hawks fan what their next four years would look like back in January 2015 when their entire starting five shared the player of the month award... what would they say?

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meloshouldgo
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7/5/2016  6:16 PM
Finals or nothing, time for mmbers of ultimatemelo.com to put up or shut up
I cannot teach anybody anything. I can only try to make them think - Socrates
nixluva
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7/5/2016  6:47 PM
meloshouldgo wrote:Finals or nothing, time for mmbers of ultimatemelo.com to put up or shut up

I'm pretty sure the Knicks are trying to make the Finals this year. Whether they make it or not is hard to say, but this team is much closer to
being a contender than they have been since the last Finals team. At some point you have to recognize that this is a good thing. Melo's history when he has played with a good PG is pretty good. Gotta hope for A better version of the success he's had in the past.

2007-08 Nuggets - Iverson and Melo 50 wins
2008-09 Nuggets - Chauncey and Melo 54 wins and WCF's
2009-10 Nuggets - Chauncey and Melo 53 wins
2012-13 Knicks - Kidd/Felton and Melo 54 wins
franco12
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7/5/2016  7:09 PM
fishmike wrote:
CrushAlot wrote:I don't see these moves as going all in. The Rose trade surprised me and I didn't like it when it happened but it opened the door to the moves that have happened since. That trade wasn't like when Walsh sent the ninth pick in the draft and another first rounder with Jared Jeffries for cap space. The Knicks have Rose and Holiday on one year deals. They added a second round pick. Jennings is on a one year deal. I was hoping for a Courtney Lee signing when I thought Rambis was still going to be coach so I have no issues with that deal. I like the Noah deal. There are obvious injury risks but leadership, heart, defense and passing are things this team needs. If he is reasonably healthy I think it is at worse a push with Lopez leaving. I loved that he resigned Lance to a below market deal for four years. The guy deserves to be paid and to have stability.
The Knicks have gone all in in the past. It has always involved using up all cap space for multiple years and the trading away of future draft picks and young players. Grant was traded in the Rose deal but no picks were given up and the Knicks are projected to have 33 mil in cap space next year with their picks. I am not sure how that is all in or resembles anything close to it especially after having to wait out the results of going all in in the past for many years.
this... some current assets were given up but no future assets. That's the thing. Everything going out can be quantified. Trading unprotected picks cant be quantified, because there is no way to gauge the value. The only future disaster is that Grant turns into a perennial all star. That is the risk.

I marginally disagree. Draft picks aren't the only future asset. The cap & money being paid out in the future is an asset. Rose being in the last year - his open salary & any future cap space, that is an asset. Noah & Lee's contracts are liabilities against our cap for four years. These liabilities can be productive if they perform and stay healthy. Or destructive if they're hurt, untradeable and prevent us from signing someone else.

But yes, trading future first rounders - we avoided. So far. So I guess, yes, Phil didn't go all in all in, but he did push most of his chips into pot, and he did so for this year, and really the next few.
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