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TPercy
Posts: 28010 Alba Posts: 1 Joined: 2/5/2014 Member: #5748 |
5/31/2016 11:48 AM
Unless we manage to get Malik Beasley from that spot then no thanks.
The Future is Bright!
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Bonn1997
Posts: 58654 Alba Posts: 2 Joined: 2/2/2004 Member: #581 USA |
5/31/2016 1:04 PM LAST EDITED: 5/31/2016 1:06 PM
82games.com's analysis says that there's only a 10% probability of pick #35 even being a role player. I think many here would view koq as already a useful role player. Even if you don't, you'd have to grant that there's at least a 10% chance he improves on his weaknesses, right? I think you need something with higher expected return for koq.
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nixluva
Posts: 56258 Alba Posts: 0 Joined: 10/5/2004 Member: #758 USA |
5/31/2016 1:15 PM
Bonn1997 wrote:82games.com's analysis says that there's only a 10% probability of pick #35 even being a role player. I think many here would view koq as already a useful role player. Even if you don't, you'd have to grant that there's at least a 10% chance he improves on his weaknesses, right? I think you need something with higher expected return for koq. IMO it's not about the 10% chance. It's about how good of a job your scouts do in vetting the talent and finding that quality player that can contribute and FIT the needs of your team. The probability game is IMO quite a useless thing to try and factor into your decision making. Phil and his staff are digging into this talent pool and i'm sure in their minds they're looking for that player they feel will bring the needed talent to the roster. That player doesn't have to match KOQ. He has to fill the need for which he's being drafted. |
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yellowboy90
Posts: 33942 Alba Posts: 0 Joined: 4/23/2011 Member: #3538 |
5/31/2016 1:16 PM
Bonn1997 wrote:82games.com's analysis says that there's only a 10% probability of pick #35 even being a role player. I think many here would view koq as already a useful role player. Even if you don't, you'd have to grant that there's at least a 10% chance he improves on his weaknesses, right? I think you need something with higher expected return for koq. What's funny is that O'Quinn is one of the few second rd success stories. He was pick #49 and was chosen right after the knicks chose Papanikolaou. It has been said that O'Quinn has bad practice habits that keeps him out of the rotation. That was one of the reasons ORl was willing to let him go. |
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Bonn1997
Posts: 58654 Alba Posts: 2 Joined: 2/2/2004 Member: #581 USA |
5/31/2016 1:32 PM
nixluva wrote:Bonn1997 wrote:82games.com's analysis says that there's only a 10% probability of pick #35 even being a role player. I think many here would view koq as already a useful role player. Even if you don't, you'd have to grant that there's at least a 10% chance he improves on his weaknesses, right? I think you need something with higher expected return for koq. Eh, if KOQ doesn't fit our needs, trade him for a player with higher expected return than pick 35. If we really do have awesome scouts, I'd rather put them to use finding a current player with higher return to trade KOQ for. |
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BRIGGS
Posts: 53275 Alba Posts: 7 Joined: 7/30/2002 Member: #303 |
5/31/2016 1:39 PM
Bonn1997 wrote:82games.com's analysis says that there's only a 10% probability of pick #35 even being a role player. I think many here would view koq as already a useful role player. Even if you don't, you'd have to grant that there's at least a 10% chance he improves on his weaknesses, right? I think you need something with higher expected return for koq. Id say thats much higher this year. RIP Crushalot😞
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nixluva
Posts: 56258 Alba Posts: 0 Joined: 10/5/2004 Member: #758 USA |
5/31/2016 2:02 PM
Bonn1997 wrote:nixluva wrote:Bonn1997 wrote:82games.com's analysis says that there's only a 10% probability of pick #35 even being a role player. I think many here would view koq as already a useful role player. Even if you don't, you'd have to grant that there's at least a 10% chance he improves on his weaknesses, right? I think you need something with higher expected return for koq. My problem with this take is that in theory what you're saying is totally right, but every single offseason is different. The talent pool is different. So while the averages may work out a certain way over time, the year to year talent pool is not the same. Some years it's better than others. There may not be a trade that addresses the team's needs. It may very well be that the best talent for this team's needs would come in the draft. |
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yellowboy90
Posts: 33942 Alba Posts: 0 Joined: 4/23/2011 Member: #3538 |
5/31/2016 2:08 PM
nixluva wrote:Bonn1997 wrote:nixluva wrote:Bonn1997 wrote:82games.com's analysis says that there's only a 10% probability of pick #35 even being a role player. I think many here would view koq as already a useful role player. Even if you don't, you'd have to grant that there's at least a 10% chance he improves on his weaknesses, right? I think you need something with higher expected return for koq. The talent pool this year is pretty bad. |
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franco12
Posts: 34069 Alba Posts: 4 Joined: 2/19/2004 Member: #599 USA |
5/31/2016 2:18 PM
NYKBocker wrote:franco12 wrote:Jmpasq wrote:yellowboy90 wrote:crzymdups wrote:mreinman wrote:I can't believe that Ainge is this dumb Per Bonn's stat, its a gamble - and a bad one for a team like ours which has so many needs. If you're rich, I might take that kind of shot. But we're not. |
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crzymdups
Posts: 52018 Alba Posts: 0 Joined: 5/1/2004 Member: #671 USA |
5/31/2016 2:30 PM
EnySpree wrote:crzymdups wrote:mreinman wrote:I can't believe that Ainge is this dumb As opposed to sourced, reported stories by actual reporters. This is a made up fantasy trade by a blogger who didn't talk to a single soul. I mean... ¿ △ ?
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Sangfroid
Posts: 24681 Alba Posts: 1 Joined: 7/7/2009 Member: #2784 |
5/31/2016 3:45 PM
EwingsGlass wrote:BRIGGS wrote:EwingsGlass wrote:For me, if a fan is offering the 35 pick, there is some possibility that he's more valuable. His 17 PER in limited minutes have value, the question is whether we need him to provide depth. In trying to get the match ups we want for KrisP at C, not sure there are enough minutes for KOQ and Rolo. His $4mm contract is a good deal, so we don't need to trade him unless we get something we like, but the opening Bid-Ask would be a high 2nd rounder. And with consistent minutes, as well as better coaching, as opposed to the quick hook he kept getting, KOQ represents a better value to the team as opposed to a phantom 2nd rounder. "We are playing a game. We are playing at not playing a game..."
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Bonn1997
Posts: 58654 Alba Posts: 2 Joined: 2/2/2004 Member: #581 USA |
5/31/2016 3:55 PM
nixluva wrote:Bonn1997 wrote:nixluva wrote:Bonn1997 wrote:82games.com's analysis says that there's only a 10% probability of pick #35 even being a role player. I think many here would view koq as already a useful role player. Even if you don't, you'd have to grant that there's at least a 10% chance he improves on his weaknesses, right? I think you need something with higher expected return for koq. Has there ever been a draft where half of the players picked in the 30s turned out to be solid rotation players? If you were talking about a pick closer to 25, this would be a different story. But in addition to the expected value of a pick around 35 being low, you don't automatically have the player locked into a cheap long-term contract like we do with KOQ or would with a first round pick. It's likely that both the player would be worse than KOQ and the contract (no Bird rights) might also be. |
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Bonn1997
Posts: 58654 Alba Posts: 2 Joined: 2/2/2004 Member: #581 USA |
5/31/2016 4:01 PM
franco12 wrote:NYKBocker wrote:franco12 wrote:Jmpasq wrote:yellowboy90 wrote:crzymdups wrote:mreinman wrote:I can't believe that Ainge is this dumb Also, according to BBall Reference, the average 35 pick produces 10.1 career win shares. KOQ is young, hasn't gotten much playing time, and is already at 7.1! I know Nix is saying this is an incredible draft and we have superb scouts but both seem like wishful thinking. I'm skeptical that in even the strongest draft in NBA history, the 35th pick would have as high an expected value as someone who is already a solid role player. |
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CrushAlot
Posts: 59764 Alba Posts: 0 Joined: 7/25/2003 Member: #452 USA |
5/31/2016 4:10 PM
crzymdups wrote:EnySpree wrote:crzymdups wrote:mreinman wrote:I can't believe that Ainge is this dumb Follow the tracks of these sources and you might find there isn't much if anything to their source if they sight one. Berman today: sources have indicated Knicks assistant Brian Keefe, Durant’s workout partner in OKC, won’t be retained under new coach Jeff Hornacek. http://nypost.com/2016/05/31/sizing-up-the-long-shots-bidding-to-pry-kevin-durant-off-thunder/ Not a stretch to assume this and at least this time he linked to a source but it is another writer from the post speculating Keefe won't be retained. Hornacek is not expected to retain Derek Fisher’s hires of former Thunder assistants Brian Keefe, http://nypost.com/2016/05/23/what-will-jeff-hornaceks-knicks-coaching-staff-look-like/ I agree that it is an opinion piece by a fan but the stuff in the Post and the Daily News is often not actually sourced or is a revisit of previous quotes and comments spun into something provocative. I'm tired,I'm tired, I'm so tired right now......Kristaps Porzingis 1/3/18
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nixluva
Posts: 56258 Alba Posts: 0 Joined: 10/5/2004 Member: #758 USA |
5/31/2016 4:30 PM
Bonn1997 wrote:franco12 wrote:NYKBocker wrote:franco12 wrote:Jmpasq wrote:yellowboy90 wrote:crzymdups wrote:mreinman wrote:I can't believe that Ainge is this dumb When did I ever say this was an incredible draft??? It doesn't have to be an overall incredible draft if you pick the right player!!! That's what i'm talking about. The Knicks are hunting for very specific needs and not just BPA as you would at the top of the draft. This is about the right Role players and not hoping for a potential Superstar to magically fall to the 2nd rd. The idea is to get a role player that will help the team in areas of real weakness and that can give the team production in a way that moves the team in the right direction. If they can land a 3nD SG or a PG that can shoot and breakdown a D, that would benefit the team much more than what we got from KOQ. Those kinds of players are going to be available in this draft. |