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2016 Free Agent Win Share 48 List
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mreinman
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4/1/2016  9:59 AM
SupremeCommander wrote:If the Knicks could add Conley and Batum and some depth I would be ecstatic

batum at what price?

so here is what phil is thinking ....
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SupremeCommander
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4/1/2016  10:02 AM    LAST EDITED: 4/1/2016  10:05 AM
mreinman wrote:
SupremeCommander wrote:If the Knicks could add Conley and Batum and some depth I would be ecstatic

batum at what price?

I'm assuming something like $9 or $10 million/yr... the market will determine that. I certainly wouldn't want to see some garbage like 4 years for $65 million.

I just think the guy is a smart basketball player who is pretty good. I think that's all you need at SG in today's NBA. There is Klay Thompson and then there is... I think he'd fit in here and I think international players really like being in NYC as they can find people from says France here

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martin
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4/1/2016  10:26 AM
SupremeCommander wrote:
mreinman wrote:
SupremeCommander wrote:If the Knicks could add Conley and Batum and some depth I would be ecstatic

batum at what price?

I'm assuming something like $9 or $10 million/yr... the market will determine that. I certainly wouldn't want to see some garbage like 4 years for $65 million.

I just think the guy is a smart basketball player who is pretty good. I think that's all you need at SG in today's NBA. There is Klay Thompson and then there is... I think he'd fit in here and I think international players really like being in NYC as they can find people from says France here

Different players but DeMarre Carroll was offered a 4 year deal starting at $13.5M. Batum isn't the defender or shooter but he does a lot on the court.

With the market so slim I'd say Batum is gonna get a starting of at least $13M.

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nyknickzingis
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4/1/2016  11:12 AM
martin wrote:
SupremeCommander wrote:
mreinman wrote:
SupremeCommander wrote:If the Knicks could add Conley and Batum and some depth I would be ecstatic

batum at what price?

I'm assuming something like $9 or $10 million/yr... the market will determine that. I certainly wouldn't want to see some garbage like 4 years for $65 million.

I just think the guy is a smart basketball player who is pretty good. I think that's all you need at SG in today's NBA. There is Klay Thompson and then there is... I think he'd fit in here and I think international players really like being in NYC as they can find people from says France here

Different players but DeMarre Carroll was offered a 4 year deal starting at $13.5M. Batum isn't the defender or shooter but he does a lot on the court.

With the market so slim I'd say Batum is gonna get a starting of at least $13M.


I'd guess more, Martin.
He's on a playoff team, and was the main trade piece that improved them vs last season. He's giving a team 5 assists a night, some defense, athleticism, can shoot the 3, and is their 2nd or 3rd best player. 2nd or 3rd best players on playoff teams will get paid way too much in free agency right now. Teams like the Lakers have $60M in space. I think Batum's going to get the maximum he can make. I'm not sure what the figure is for his maximum, but it has to be in the $20M a year range for the 1st season. Once DeRozan and Durant are off the market, Batum becomes the best wing available. He's getting the maximum, I think.
martin
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4/1/2016  11:18 AM
nyknickzingis wrote:
martin wrote:
SupremeCommander wrote:
mreinman wrote:
SupremeCommander wrote:If the Knicks could add Conley and Batum and some depth I would be ecstatic

batum at what price?

I'm assuming something like $9 or $10 million/yr... the market will determine that. I certainly wouldn't want to see some garbage like 4 years for $65 million.

I just think the guy is a smart basketball player who is pretty good. I think that's all you need at SG in today's NBA. There is Klay Thompson and then there is... I think he'd fit in here and I think international players really like being in NYC as they can find people from says France here

Different players but DeMarre Carroll was offered a 4 year deal starting at $13.5M. Batum isn't the defender or shooter but he does a lot on the court.

With the market so slim I'd say Batum is gonna get a starting of at least $13M.


I'd guess more, Martin.
He's on a playoff team, and was the main trade piece that improved them vs last season. He's giving a team 5 assists a night, some defense, athleticism, can shoot the 3, and is their 2nd or 3rd best player. 2nd or 3rd best players on playoff teams will get paid way too much in free agency right now. Teams like the Lakers have $60M in space. I think Batum's going to get the maximum he can make. I'm not sure what the figure is for his maximum, but it has to be in the $20M a year range for the 1st season. Once DeRozan and Durant are off the market, Batum becomes the best wing available. He's getting the maximum, I think.

yeah I tend to agree

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SupremeCommander
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4/1/2016  1:22 PM    LAST EDITED: 4/1/2016  1:25 PM
martin wrote:
nyknickzingis wrote:
martin wrote:
SupremeCommander wrote:
mreinman wrote:
SupremeCommander wrote:If the Knicks could add Conley and Batum and some depth I would be ecstatic

batum at what price?

I'm assuming something like $9 or $10 million/yr... the market will determine that. I certainly wouldn't want to see some garbage like 4 years for $65 million.

I just think the guy is a smart basketball player who is pretty good. I think that's all you need at SG in today's NBA. There is Klay Thompson and then there is... I think he'd fit in here and I think international players really like being in NYC as they can find people from says France here

Different players but DeMarre Carroll was offered a 4 year deal starting at $13.5M. Batum isn't the defender or shooter but he does a lot on the court.

With the market so slim I'd say Batum is gonna get a starting of at least $13M.


I'd guess more, Martin.
He's on a playoff team, and was the main trade piece that improved them vs last season. He's giving a team 5 assists a night, some defense, athleticism, can shoot the 3, and is their 2nd or 3rd best player. 2nd or 3rd best players on playoff teams will get paid way too much in free agency right now. Teams like the Lakers have $60M in space. I think Batum's going to get the maximum he can make. I'm not sure what the figure is for his maximum, but it has to be in the $20M a year range for the 1st season. Once DeRozan and Durant are off the market, Batum becomes the best wing available. He's getting the maximum, I think.

yeah I tend to agree

Afflalo got $8mm a year... I'm not sure he gets $5 more a year. That said, I'll concede he gets that. I wouldn't love that number but I would do it. I didn't love the Lopez signing at the time but now I do... $13 million will not look like a lot of money for a SG with the new TV deal.

We would have youth and/or talent 1 through 5. You look at what the NY Giants did this offseason and would do something similar. You aren't going to fix all your problems but you get guys about to enter the prime of their careers.

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mreinman
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4/1/2016  2:21 PM
nyknickzingis wrote:
martin wrote:
SupremeCommander wrote:
mreinman wrote:
SupremeCommander wrote:If the Knicks could add Conley and Batum and some depth I would be ecstatic

batum at what price?

I'm assuming something like $9 or $10 million/yr... the market will determine that. I certainly wouldn't want to see some garbage like 4 years for $65 million.

I just think the guy is a smart basketball player who is pretty good. I think that's all you need at SG in today's NBA. There is Klay Thompson and then there is... I think he'd fit in here and I think international players really like being in NYC as they can find people from says France here

Different players but DeMarre Carroll was offered a 4 year deal starting at $13.5M. Batum isn't the defender or shooter but he does a lot on the court.

With the market so slim I'd say Batum is gonna get a starting of at least $13M.


I'd guess more, Martin.
He's on a playoff team, and was the main trade piece that improved them vs last season. He's giving a team 5 assists a night, some defense, athleticism, can shoot the 3, and is their 2nd or 3rd best player. 2nd or 3rd best players on playoff teams will get paid way too much in free agency right now. Teams like the Lakers have $60M in space. I think Batum's going to get the maximum he can make. I'm not sure what the figure is for his maximum, but it has to be in the $20M a year range for the 1st season. Once DeRozan and Durant are off the market, Batum becomes the best wing available. He's getting the maximum, I think.

I think that Batum is the perfect example of blowing 20+ million on a player that does not deserve it. That would probably be serious desperation move.

so here is what phil is thinking ....
newyorker4ever
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4/1/2016  2:31 PM
crzymdups wrote:Mike Conley has the highest WS/48 of any guard available and he's unrestricted and has at least some interest in coming here.

He needs to be the top target.

also, thanks for putting this together - handy guide!

He's easily my top target. If we could get Conley and either C.Lee or E.Turner i would be more than happy.

mreinman
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4/1/2016  2:34 PM
newyorker4ever wrote:
crzymdups wrote:Mike Conley has the highest WS/48 of any guard available and he's unrestricted and has at least some interest in coming here.

He needs to be the top target.

also, thanks for putting this together - handy guide!

He's easily my top target. If we could get Conley and either C.Lee or E.Turner i would be more than happy.

conley's price tag will be tricky though

so here is what phil is thinking ....
newyorker4ever
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4/1/2016  2:36 PM
Bonn1997 wrote:
mreinman wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:
mreinman wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:
mreinman wrote:thanks Nix!! this is great. It also shows you how bad the field is this year. We are best off sitting tight unless we get Conley or Derozen (where is he on the list?)

Derozon's going to get overpaid. He has reasonably good (but not outstanding #s this year) and mediocre career #s. I think he'll give you about $10 mil in production for a $20 mil price tag.

170 is a pretty high TS and he is young. Phil would have to think that he can make him a complete star.


Right but giving a max contract out based on 1 good year out of 7 (especially a contract year) doesn't make sense. By NBA standards, 26 isn't young. Players peak around 24 to 26 statistically. A max contract would be paying him mostly in years where the average player is on a downward trajectory.

ok ... put it this way - I would rather they overpay for him than overpay for a guy like Rondo.

Also, I have this gut thing with Derozen and Phil. Not logical necessarily, I have admitted that before.


OK but I'd rather overpay for no one.

Maybe you should be paying more attention to the NBA and what free agents are getting these days because if you want any player that has any kind of name in this game then you have to overpay to get them.

newyorker4ever
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4/1/2016  3:18 PM
nixluva wrote:I've added Derozan to the list above. I actually thought he wasn't up until next year.

I agree that this crop is rather thin and Phil has to be careful not to feel pressure to overpay for someone that isn't really worth it. I think he'll be patient even tho the clamour will be loud. It's going to be interesting to see how this summer goes as opposed to last summer.

There are some young developing prospects that could be interesting targets. I think Phil will be very aggressive going after some of them if the big targets aren't an option.

Melo needs to do his part as the star player on the team that knows a lot of the other big name players like Lebron and Wade do for their teams. He needs to be the voice in the ears of these free agents because the whole thing about just because we have Phil Jackson all the big names will want to come play for us isn't how it works. They aren't gonna wanna play for us just cause we have Phil as our president so Melo needs to go through his little black book and call these guys.

newyorker4ever
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4/1/2016  3:24 PM
Bonn1997 wrote:
mreinman wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:
mreinman wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:
mreinman wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:
mreinman wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:
mreinman wrote:thanks Nix!! this is great. It also shows you how bad the field is this year. We are best off sitting tight unless we get Conley or Derozen (where is he on the list?)

Derozon's going to get overpaid. He has reasonably good (but not outstanding #s this year) and mediocre career #s. I think he'll give you about $10 mil in production for a $20 mil price tag.

170 is a pretty high TS and he is young. Phil would have to think that he can make him a complete star.


Right but giving a max contract out based on 1 good year out of 7 (especially a contract year) doesn't make sense. By NBA standards, 26 isn't young. Players peak around 24 to 26 statistically. A max contract would be paying him mostly in years where the average player is on a downward trajectory.

ok ... put it this way - I would rather they overpay for him than overpay for a guy like Rondo.

Also, I have this gut thing with Derozen and Phil. Not logical necessarily, I have admitted that before.


OK but I'd rather overpay for no one.

so whats your move? How do you hope the build? Sell melo and start from scratch/kp?


Yes and buy good bargains. That could mean 3 mil contracts for guys who give 4 mil in production or could mean much bigger contracts.

yeah ... not going to happen.

and who are your 3 for 4m?


I have no idea what price different FAs are going to get. You'd have to do a ton of interviewing and see who takes a good bargain. I also don't have the time I used to have to look at all the major advanced stats for every FA. I do have enough time to easily spot someone who's going to get paid double what the advanced stats say he's worth though.
Durant's the only player on that list that I think is worth a max contract. He's a health risk but it's a risk you'd have to take.
Edit: I do think David Lee at around $4 mil would be a great bargain, though. I think if you add a bunch of great bargains like that it will improve the team more than blowing all our cap space to overpay one guy will. The improvement would then make us more appealing the next summer.

Well there's a whole list of all the free agents in the original thread so i would have to think you's have enough time to scroll up and look at it and tell us which one's you think will be getting $3/$4 mil per right??

newyorker4ever
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4/1/2016  3:26 PM
martin wrote:
SupremeCommander wrote:
mreinman wrote:
SupremeCommander wrote:If the Knicks could add Conley and Batum and some depth I would be ecstatic

batum at what price?

I'm assuming something like $9 or $10 million/yr... the market will determine that. I certainly wouldn't want to see some garbage like 4 years for $65 million.

I just think the guy is a smart basketball player who is pretty good. I think that's all you need at SG in today's NBA. There is Klay Thompson and then there is... I think he'd fit in here and I think international players really like being in NYC as they can find people from says France here

Different players but DeMarre Carroll was offered a 4 year deal starting at $13.5M. Batum isn't the defender or shooter but he does a lot on the court.

With the market so slim I'd say Batum is gonna get a starting of at least $13M.

He's gonna get more than $13 per, more closer to max i would think.

newyorker4ever
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4/1/2016  3:31 PM
mreinman wrote:
newyorker4ever wrote:
crzymdups wrote:Mike Conley has the highest WS/48 of any guard available and he's unrestricted and has at least some interest in coming here.

He needs to be the top target.

also, thanks for putting this together - handy guide!

He's easily my top target. If we could get Conley and either C.Lee or E.Turner i would be more than happy.

conley's price tag will be tricky though

Oh it absolutely will be but he's the guy i want to play the point for Melo, KP and R.Lopez. He brings no drama with him on the court or off and seems like he's all about being a team player which is the type of players i want for this team. I keep saying that we should look to finish this semi rebuild in two seasons because the cap rise of about $20 mil each season should be how we get a legit point guard in one off season and get a legit SG the other off season and i'd love to start it with Conley.

nixluva
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4/1/2016  3:41 PM
newyorker4ever wrote:
mreinman wrote:
newyorker4ever wrote:
crzymdups wrote:Mike Conley has the highest WS/48 of any guard available and he's unrestricted and has at least some interest in coming here.

He needs to be the top target.

also, thanks for putting this together - handy guide!

He's easily my top target. If we could get Conley and either C.Lee or E.Turner i would be more than happy.

conley's price tag will be tricky though

Oh it absolutely will be but he's the guy i want to play the point for Melo, KP and R.Lopez. He brings no drama with him on the court or off and seems like he's all about being a team player which is the type of players i want for this team. I keep saying that we should look to finish this semi rebuild in two seasons because the cap rise of about $20 mil each season should be how we get a legit point guard in one off season and get a legit SG the other off season and i'd love to start it with Conley.


Conley is definitely a top target. He's used to playing a more old school style of ball with post bigs. It's a great fit for him and the Knicks.
Bonn1997
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4/1/2016  5:17 PM    LAST EDITED: 4/1/2016  5:23 PM
newyorker4ever wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:
mreinman wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:
mreinman wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:
mreinman wrote:thanks Nix!! this is great. It also shows you how bad the field is this year. We are best off sitting tight unless we get Conley or Derozen (where is he on the list?)

Derozon's going to get overpaid. He has reasonably good (but not outstanding #s this year) and mediocre career #s. I think he'll give you about $10 mil in production for a $20 mil price tag.

170 is a pretty high TS and he is young. Phil would have to think that he can make him a complete star.


Right but giving a max contract out based on 1 good year out of 7 (especially a contract year) doesn't make sense. By NBA standards, 26 isn't young. Players peak around 24 to 26 statistically. A max contract would be paying him mostly in years where the average player is on a downward trajectory.

ok ... put it this way - I would rather they overpay for him than overpay for a guy like Rondo.

Also, I have this gut thing with Derozen and Phil. Not logical necessarily, I have admitted that before.


OK but I'd rather overpay for no one.

Maybe you should be paying more attention to the NBA and what free agents are getting these days because if you want any player that has any kind of name in this game then you have to overpay to get them.


I'm happy to get big name players if they give big production but otherwise I'll pass. I mentioned I'd gladly give Durant the full max. I'm not into just chasing big names, though. That's what we've done the past 15 years.
Bonn1997
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4/1/2016  5:22 PM
newyorker4ever wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:
mreinman wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:
mreinman wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:
mreinman wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:
mreinman wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:
mreinman wrote:thanks Nix!! this is great. It also shows you how bad the field is this year. We are best off sitting tight unless we get Conley or Derozen (where is he on the list?)

Derozon's going to get overpaid. He has reasonably good (but not outstanding #s this year) and mediocre career #s. I think he'll give you about $10 mil in production for a $20 mil price tag.

170 is a pretty high TS and he is young. Phil would have to think that he can make him a complete star.


Right but giving a max contract out based on 1 good year out of 7 (especially a contract year) doesn't make sense. By NBA standards, 26 isn't young. Players peak around 24 to 26 statistically. A max contract would be paying him mostly in years where the average player is on a downward trajectory.

ok ... put it this way - I would rather they overpay for him than overpay for a guy like Rondo.

Also, I have this gut thing with Derozen and Phil. Not logical necessarily, I have admitted that before.


OK but I'd rather overpay for no one.

so whats your move? How do you hope the build? Sell melo and start from scratch/kp?


Yes and buy good bargains. That could mean 3 mil contracts for guys who give 4 mil in production or could mean much bigger contracts.

yeah ... not going to happen.

and who are your 3 for 4m?


I have no idea what price different FAs are going to get. You'd have to do a ton of interviewing and see who takes a good bargain. I also don't have the time I used to have to look at all the major advanced stats for every FA. I do have enough time to easily spot someone who's going to get paid double what the advanced stats say he's worth though.
Durant's the only player on that list that I think is worth a max contract. He's a health risk but it's a risk you'd have to take.
Edit: I do think David Lee at around $4 mil would be a great bargain, though. I think if you add a bunch of great bargains like that it will improve the team more than blowing all our cap space to overpay one guy will. The improvement would then make us more appealing the next summer.

Well there's a whole list of all the free agents in the original thread so i would have to think you's have enough time to scroll up and look at it and tell us which one's you think will be getting $3/$4 mil per right??


There are two separate issues: 1) How much will other teams offer players, which no one here knows, and 2) How much would I offer players. For 3 to 4 mil, I'd want the player to have career and current win shares close to or above .100, and I'd more closely look at everyone at that level on this list. Win shares is just a (good) starting point though. You really have to thoroughly look through all the player tracking data and other advanced stats too. To do this seriously, it's gotta be a full-time job or you have to not value your time and do the work for free. I'm too old to do this kind of work for free and not good enough at it to do it for pay :)
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4/1/2016  9:54 PM
Who is coming off the books? What is the maximum amount of cap we can get and the least amount we can get?
The Future is Bright!
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4/1/2016  9:57 PM
TPercy wrote:Who is coming off the books? What is the maximum amount of cap we can get and the least amount we can get?

I read it's between $18-35mil.

TPercy
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4/1/2016  10:16 PM    LAST EDITED: 4/1/2016  10:19 PM
PG: ____ Grant Wroten
SG:_____ _______ ______
SF: Melo _______ ______
PF: Porzingis KOQ ________
C: Robin Lopez Hernangomez ________

(Assuming everyone is coming off the books and you stretch and waive Calderon)

The Future is Bright!
2016 Free Agent Win Share 48 List

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