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up 3 with 7 seconds left = Foul or Do not foul?
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Chandler
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1/21/2016  1:46 PM
Knixkik wrote:You shouldn't foul. Need to trust in your defense. If you foul, a lot of things can go wrong. If you play great defense and they hit a tough shot, you can live with that. You can't live with handing them free shots at the line (with the clock stopped) and having one of many things go wrong.

but you realize we're talking about two shot foul when they're three points behind. We're not advocating fouling in the act

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bernard
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1/21/2016  1:57 PM
It's tough to foul except on the catch without the risk of the fouled player going into a shooting motion and the ref giving continuation and shots. So I'd only do it on the catch and then only with <5 secs (or <8 secs if opponent is out of time outs). What you don't want is a situation where you're going to extend the game to the point where you have to knock down 4 foul shots. Even with a great foul shooting team like the Knicks, odds are only about 50/50 that they make 4 in a row.

I was at the game last night. Utah hit some very tough shots. Other than the Zingo brain freeze, we played good d down the stretch -- really the whole second half.

Off topic, it was really fun to watch Melo and Hayward go at each other. Hayward is more crafty/dirty than I realized, always pushing off while on offense (but not enough to get calls), always overreacting to any contact he takes. You could tell it was annoying Melo. Which made his response that much more satisfying. Hayward does have a damn sweet stroke. Credit where credit due.

Chandler
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1/21/2016  1:57 PM
fishmike wrote:
dk7th wrote:
helloharv wrote:I was so ticket off we didn't foul last night , what say you? I realize coaches vary on the subject but curious as to why?

you do like mr. frazier says which is foul him before he shoots. then he has to make two shots, they're forced to foul, and then we take two shots. we are a top-rated free throw shooting team.

before we get to take those two shots we need to successfully inbound the ball. We also need to get the rebound when the 2nd shot misses. We also need to hit both FTs. All points of failure. Defending one shot is easier and safer.


good point about the in-bounds! (especially since knicks have struggled with that at times) Did we have a timeout? Odds are highly in your favor you get the rebound on the missed FT (that type of stuff was analyzed by the NBA guy in that article i posted). And if the team that is down only hits one FT and misses the other on purpose and we got the rebound we're up by 2 points already and going to the line. SO wedo don't need to hit both FTs? If we do, we ice it, because we're up by 4; but even if we hit one we're up by 3 points and they have even less time to try and force a tie again (and you would foul again for a 2 point shot and so on). So I don't agree we have to hit both FTs

I think best case the math indicates it may be a wash on strategy or perhaps favor the intentional foul. But very good points about team mentality, identity etc. Completely legitimate

Just curious whether you're one of the advanced stats guys? Also wonder what mreinman thinks (aka Mr. Hate-the-midrange-shot)

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helloharv
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1/21/2016  2:57 PM
For the crowd that says it is too risky to foul....

How many times have you seen a foul shot missed on purpose and the offensive team rebounds it and actually scores? and if they do ALL that correctly, it is STILL tied. As compared to literally letting Melo shoot a 3 against the 76ers to tie the game.

dk7th
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1/21/2016  9:36 PM
fishmike wrote:
dk7th wrote:
helloharv wrote:I was so ticket off we didn't foul last night , what say you? I realize coaches vary on the subject but curious as to why?

you do like mr. frazier says which is foul him before he shoots. then he has to make two shots, they're forced to foul, and then we take two shots. we are a top-rated free throw shooting team.

before we get to take those two shots we need to successfully inbound the ball. We also need to get the rebound when the 2nd shot misses. We also need to hit both FTs. All points of failure. Defending one shot is easier and safer.

you play to win. you don't play to not lose. the first way is confidence and courage the second is fear and cowardice.

knicks win 38-43 games in 16-17. rose MUST shoot no more than 14 shots per game, defer to kp6 + melo, and have a usage rate of less than 25%
mreinman
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1/21/2016  11:51 PM
of course you foul ... unless you are an old school dope who does not care about statistics
so here is what phil is thinking ....
Knicks1969
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1/21/2016  11:56 PM
helloharv wrote:I was so ticket off we didn't foul last night , what say you? I realize coaches vary on the subject but curious as to why?

You freaking take the darn foul.

Thank God Fisher is no longer our coach, now let's get Calderon out of here:)
Knicks1969
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1/22/2016  12:00 AM
Chandler wrote:
BRIGGS wrote:Foul aggressive foul no hesitation grab the guy on the pass.

actually this is another good point. worse than fouling in the act of shooting is a ticky-tack one where the guy hits the three and gets an AND 1.

That rarely happens

Thank God Fisher is no longer our coach, now let's get Calderon out of here:)
helloharv
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1/22/2016  8:18 AM
For the crowd that says it is too risky to foul....
How many times have you seen a foul shot missed on purpose and the offensive team rebounds it and actually scores? and if they do ALL that correctly, it is STILL tied. As compared to literally letting Melo shoot a 3 against the 76ers to tie the game.
fishmike
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1/22/2016  8:44 AM
mreinman wrote:of course you foul ... unless you are an old school dope who does not care about statistics
or a qualified NBA coach making millions to lead men as opposed to a know-it-all behind a keyboard. Don't forget those guys along with the old school dopes.
"winning is more fun... then fun is fun" -Thibs
fishmike
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1/22/2016  8:46 AM
helloharv wrote:For the crowd that says it is too risky to foul....
How many times have you seen a foul shot missed on purpose and the offensive team rebounds it and actually scores? and if they do ALL that correctly, it is STILL tied. As compared to literally letting Melo shoot a 3 against the 76ers to tie the game.
rarely. How many times have you seen an inbounds pass stolen or deflected leading to a TO? Happens most nights. That's the point.
"winning is more fun... then fun is fun" -Thibs
mreinman
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1/22/2016  8:49 AM
fishmike wrote:
mreinman wrote:of course you foul ... unless you are an old school dope who does not care about statistics
or a qualified NBA coach making millions to lead men as opposed to a know-it-all behind a keyboard. Don't forget those guys along with the old school dopes.

as qualified as the unqualified posters who think that not fouling is the best move

so here is what phil is thinking ....
Chandler
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1/22/2016  9:39 AM
Food fight!!

Honestly even though I'm in the statistics camp you need to take them w a grain of salt. And you need to make sure you have the right people and practice whatever strategy you employ

Nba Stats might say take more 3- pointers but if you're guys don't have range that's a poor choice

I think we can agree the knicks need work in this area of closing games because they are doing what is not debatably wrong-- fouling in the act

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fishmike
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1/22/2016  9:52 AM
mreinman wrote:
fishmike wrote:
mreinman wrote:of course you foul ... unless you are an old school dope who does not care about statistics
or a qualified NBA coach making millions to lead men as opposed to a know-it-all behind a keyboard. Don't forget those guys along with the old school dopes.

as qualified as the unqualified posters who think that not fouling is the best move

yes... there is your opinion and a bunch of fools. You have established this on several times making points and detailing facts based on your opinions. Funny you post here instead of consulting for one of these dumb franchises full of old school dopes who don't understand the game.
"winning is more fun... then fun is fun" -Thibs
fishmike
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1/22/2016  10:01 AM
Chandler wrote:Food fight!!

Honestly even though I'm in the statistics camp you need to take them w a grain of salt. And you need to make sure you have the right people and practice whatever strategy you employ

Nba Stats might say take more 3- pointers but if you're guys don't have range that's a poor choice

I think we can agree the knicks need work in this area of closing games because they are doing what is not debatably wrong-- fouling in the act

what do the stats say in this situation? I see teams scoring often on missed FTs. I see that all the time. I see TOs on inbounds passes all the time as well. Yes these are high % plays. So is defending desperation 3s. Arent the Knicks one of the best teams at defending that shot? Don't you think they know that? So you focus all season on defending that shot, but when it comes down to the final seconds you are telling your team not to defend that shot. Coaches takes this into consideration. Excel spread sheets do not.

Now feel free to disagree, and say you prefer stats over trust. That's fine, but don't pretend this other aspect doesn't exist or isn't important. THAT is being a dope.

There are two sides of this. Both have merit. This is what coaches are paid to do... decide which course is best for their team. If it works they did the right thing. If it doesn't they were wrong. Isnt that how coaching works? And at the end of the day it comes down to player execution, and in the case of the Jazz game KP failed miserably. You cant coach execution. All part of the game.

"winning is more fun... then fun is fun" -Thibs
fishmike
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1/22/2016  10:11 AM
Chandler wrote:Food fight!!
btw.. that was freakin awesome. Classic dude.. good stuff.
"winning is more fun... then fun is fun" -Thibs
mreinman
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1/22/2016  10:21 AM
fishmike wrote:
mreinman wrote:
fishmike wrote:
mreinman wrote:of course you foul ... unless you are an old school dope who does not care about statistics
or a qualified NBA coach making millions to lead men as opposed to a know-it-all behind a keyboard. Don't forget those guys along with the old school dopes.

as qualified as the unqualified posters who think that not fouling is the best move

yes... there is your opinion and a bunch of fools. You have established this on several times making points and detailing facts based on your opinions. Funny you post here instead of consulting for one of these dumb franchises full of old school dopes who don't understand the game.

your the opinion guy ... I like data

how is dramond green doing?

so here is what phil is thinking ....
up 3 with 7 seconds left = Foul or Do not foul?

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