Chandler wrote:Andrew wrote:Paris907 wrote:Why put KP on Haywood. He had 5 fouls and is foul prone. I know Lance was out but Afflalo, Grant, have more than ample speed to have given the foul.
KP wasn't assigned to Haywood...it was a switch on a screen. I'm pretty sure most if not all NBA coaches do not intentionally foul with their team up 3...even Pop.
I don't think that's true but will snoop around. Fairly sure the celts do this religously. Also FWIW Clyde was saying to do exactly this (not sure how you feel about him; but I think he's pretty smart), that it was a straightaway shot and teams need to practice this, including looking up at the shot clock on the opposing end of the floor so you can choose your spot when to foul
And you're absolutely right it was a switch, and it was right to switch. I was super happy to see KP on hayward and imagined him just sticking his arms up to make the shot more difficult. when he jumped up to block the shot, i was like good grief
Following up:
Here's an article from someone who sounds smart who did some analysis of college hoops; the net result is there was a statistically insignificant difference between the intentional foul strategy versus not
https://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpress.com/2010/08/24/intentionally-fouling-up-3-points-the-first-comprehensive-cbb-analysis/
Both a two sample t-test of proportion and a Chi-squared test fail to reject the null hypothesis that there is a difference in winning percentage between the two strategies. In this sample, teams that did not foul won slightly more often. For the less statistically inclined, this means that there is no significant difference between the two strategies.
then later after looking at it more closely (ends up with same result):
Teams that intentionally foul allowed the opponent to score three seven times out of 48. Teams that did not allowed the opponent to score three points 93 out of 395 times. While teams that did intentionally foul gave up three points a smaller proportion of the time than teams that did, the difference was not statistically significant (p values of .067 and .113 for a two sample t-test and a Chi-squared test). That means that in 2009-2010, teams that were down three points at the end of the game scored the necessary points at rates that did not differ based on which strategy the leading team pursued.
But on the other hand, here is another guys who says it's 4x better to intentionally foul (again based on stats) and on NBA data
http://www.82games.com/lawhorn.htm
The basic conclusion we come to is this:
With time running out (final possession), and a 3-point lead, the defensive team is roughly 4 times more likely to "blow the lead" and have to play overtime if they choose to play defense, rather than foul in the waning seconds of the game.
(note that immediately after he makes this statement -- which would strongly suggest to intentionally foul -- he then lays out why it might be a bad idea -- i.e., guy ends up fouling in the act of shooting a three pointer)
So my own take on this is either approach is legitimate and probably comes down to coach's predilection and team personnel. But the one thing is crystal clear -- you shouldn't foul him in the act at that point. Whatever strategy you use, you have to make sure to avoid that because the odds are much higher. (the above article says there's only a 20% hit rate for a 3 pointer with clock running down; odds of hitting three free throws is much higher)