Assuming a happy ending train of thought (no major injuries to key players (Melo, KP, JG, Rolo, Afflo)) I'm predicting 42 wins. I discount the 17 win season as an attempt to secure a decent draft pick (which we did). Had the team not suffered the injuries and player turnover, they could have won mid-twenties games - say 24.
Most pundits are simply doubling the red herring 17 wins and coming up low-thirties. I think that's a worst case scenario. I see the downside at 32 wins. I think 42 - 45 (a little better than .500-ish) is very possible with the wind of good health at the team's back. I'm factoring in that other teams will have their injuries and problems.
I think Phil will make a trade move in Dec. or January - say two deep bench players for a quality veteran pine brother from some under-performing team looking to jettison salaries and maybe promote a D-Leaguer. Too early to speculate about specifics at this point in time.
I do agree that the second half of the season is key and we should see an acceleration of wins then rather than earlier in the season. I think we've moved from the patience meme on to the anticipation meme (time to start winning again). I'm expecting that the Knicks become the surprise team of season.