Bonn1997 wrote:There's an excellent article below by Nate Silver's 538.com on why Melo's contract may doom the Knicks to mediocrity. And Note that Silver is far from a Melo critic - he's probably one of Melo's biggest supporters actually. His calculation (before Melo's injury) was that Melo would produce at a level warranting 122 mil, which is only slightly below the actual contract. The problem is that the top teams don't simply get an even 1:1 ratio on dollars spent to player productivity. Teams that get average return on their money spent are average teams and hence finish around 41-41. The top teams have players vastly outproducing their contracts. Note that Silver wrote all of this before Melo's injury and I think he'd be at least a little harsher now.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/carmelo-anthonys-contract-could-doom-the-knicks-to-mediocrity/

right, and i am not even a fan of silver. in a vacuum a case is being made for the contract being fair, but in the context of winning titles the money being paid makes winning a title impossible, ie the contract is outrageous and ridiculous.

newyorknewyork wrote:

EnySpree wrote:If Carmelo comes into this season and plays the way he's been playing, the Knicks should make the playoffs....

If the team struggles early, or if Melo pulls a JR/Shump... the Knicks can trade Melo and get a small ransom for him....

either way, the Knicks fans/organization win. Or future is set and we have a healthy cap situation.

We win anyway you look at it

What we are doing now, the Knicks should have done 4 yrs ago when we first traded for him. Should have played out the season, let Billups walk, amnesty Amare. Freed up 34mil in cap space, then used that to replenish the assets we gave up by eating short term unwanted contracts. Then used the cap space after a yr or 2 to add big time free agents to go along with some young talent and Carmelo.

what the knicks (DOLAN) should have done was wait for free agency, call melo's bluff, let him go to new jersey for 28 games, and sign him if he wanted to be a knick... and hold on to gallinari, mozgov, chandler, felton, and stoudemire. next season dump felton and chandler, and keep mozgov and gallinari. you need an upgrade over felton and chandler's contract is redundant with gallinari there on a rookie contract.

if melo doesn't sign with new york then we are still building a team from the ground up, making it a desirable destination for top tier free agents in 2012, 2013, 2014.

newyorknewyork wrote:

dk7th wrote:

newyorknewyork wrote:

EnySpree wrote:If Carmelo comes into this season and plays the way he's been playing, the Knicks should make the playoffs....

If the team struggles early, or if Melo pulls a JR/Shump... the Knicks can trade Melo and get a small ransom for him....

either way, the Knicks fans/organization win. Or future is set and we have a healthy cap situation.

We win anyway you look at it

What we are doing now, the Knicks should have done 4 yrs ago when we first traded for him. Should have played out the season, let Billups walk, amnesty Amare. Freed up 34mil in cap space, then used that to replenish the assets we gave up by eating short term unwanted contracts. Then used the cap space after a yr or 2 to add big time free agents to go along with some young talent and Carmelo.

what the knicks (DOLAN) should have done was wait for free agency, call melo's bluff, let him go to new jersey for 28 games, and sign him if he wanted to be a knick... and hold on to gallinari, mozgov, chandler, felton, and stoudemire. next season dump felton and chandler, and keep mozgov and gallinari. you need an upgrade over felton and chandler's contract is redundant with gallinari there on a rookie contract.

if melo doesn't sign with new york then we are still building a team from the ground up, making it a desirable destination for top tier free agents in 2012, 2013, 2014.

Well we could keep going back further then that. We shouldn't have dumped ZBO and Crawford for nothing in order to chase Lebron without knowing how much real interest he had in us. Or traded our lottery pick Jordan Hill along with right to swap our 2011 first round pick and rights to our 2012 first round pick in order to dump Jeffries contract. Or signed Amare to 100mil unisured contract.

Lets look at all the assets given up right there even before the Carmelo trade.

stern had to step in to save the knicks (dolan/isiah) from themselves. walsh was allowed to do roster flush but was not given the chance to build the team properly. the only issue i had with the idea of trading away bloated longer contracts for bloated shorter ones is that of the two players zbo and crawful you dump crawful asap. walsh was under pressure to acquire a big name as part of his dance with the devil, ie dolan. he wasn't the right guy to withstand both ownership and the alleged impatience of the new york fanbase. by comparison jackson is the right guy to withstand ownership and the impatient fanbase.

the only people who are against what is happening right now are the same people who like dolan and his willingness to spend money (as he sees fit and not in keeping with his gms), isiah thomas (who deserves only contempt but is somehow regarded with fondness by this same contingent, carmelo anthiny (who never takes responsibility for his words or actions and who is always an innocent victim and never an actual agent in his own affairs). the spokesperson for this contingent is stephen a. smith, who though the loudest is also the wrongest....

if walsh had to do it all over again i would think keeping a 26 year old randolph, a leftie and an elite offensive rebounder would be a priority.

but you're right, it was a roster flush for lebron and the backup plan should have been to not sigh amare but hold the course. if we had a better man as the owner of the knicks that would have happened. but lets face it: jackson may be the only man in basketball not named popovich or buford who could overpower dolan.

dk7th wrote:

nixluva wrote:

EnySpree wrote:We didn't move him earlier. The smart thing to do would have been to not even sign him at all...

without back tracking and just dealing with this situation, the Knicks are doing great and no matter what we will be fine

I actually disagree about not signing Melo at all. The thing you would hope for is that having him still allowed FA's to feel they weren't coming to a team that had nothing. So we've gotten thru FA and have a solid roster. Now if Melo shows he can play the way he always has that would give us a very nice trade chip going forward. At any time this year if Melo should decide that he wants a win now roster he can waive his no trade. I think it still made sense to have him as an asset. I don't think he's gonna want to beg off from this team tho. I think Melo is gonna find a comfort zone with this team and help the team make a run for the playoffs. It's in his best interests to have a great year no matter what he decides he wants to do. Stay or Go, Melo has to perform.

he is not going to have any takers out there for win-now-- he's too expensive. more likely we get marbury 2.0.

Are you crazy, there are teams that will move heaven and earth to get a player like melo, but at this point in his career, he pretty much controls his destination. He's build his brand large enough to dictate where ever he wants to play.

Now I don't care what we make think about melo, or how he should play, apparently he has done something right, because he's part of the face of the NBA. People will pay to come see him play, the pack the stands on the road or at home, and it aint to see galloway or THJ, or what ever role player you want to replace him with.

When i guy says "I trust in what phil is doing" from day 1, and has not deviated from that since day 1.

Perhaps Melo would have showed up to SL like LBJ if we were still in the tournament like cleveland was, and not playing some consolation game minus it biggest star (kp)

knicks1248 wrote:

dk7th wrote:he is not going to have any takers out there for win-now-- he's too expensive. more likely we get marbury 2.0.

Are you crazy, there are teams that will move heaven and earth to get a player like melo, but at this point in his career, he pretty much controls his destination. He's build his brand large enough to dictate where ever he wants to play.

DK7th is right.

To make the money match on Melo's contract in a trade, another team will have to gut itself to get him onto the roster. So if they were a contender, they'd have to more core pieces to the point where they stopped being a contender to fit in Melo's limitations.

Warriors passed on Kevin Love for that very reason. And Love is younger and better and has a better future.

If Melo moves, Knicks will get 10-15 cents on the dollar. Sorry guys, that's the power of a No Trade Clause for you.

That way other teams know he's in the right frame of mind and health, Phil will coax Melo into waiving his no trade clause, and Knicks will ship him to a contender around the all star break that need that hired gun for their playoff run and we trade for some valuable picks and pieces.

Only way it seems, to go forward for both sides.

Bonn1997 wrote:

ChuckBuck wrote:Best bet is Carmelo has a bounce back season, is fully healthy, and the Knicks are playing .500 ball.

That way other teams know he's in the right frame of mind and health, Phil will coax Melo into waiving his no trade clause, and Knicks will ship him to a contender around the all star break that need that hired gun for their playoff run and we trade for some valuable picks and pieces.

Only way it seems, to go forward for both sides.

Phil has to convince Dolan it's worth giving him the $15 mil cash trade kicker too. Dolan would have spent about $50 mil for 2 half seasons from Melo.

If $15m is outside the team cap, Dolan doesn't really care, he's settled for worst. Larry Brown at $18.5m comes to mind.

It's a matter of convincing him(Melo) too though, which would be Phil's job.

dk7th wrote:

nixluva wrote:

EnySpree wrote:We didn't move him earlier. The smart thing to do would have been to not even sign him at all...

without back tracking and just dealing with this situation, the Knicks are doing great and no matter what we will be fine

I actually disagree about not signing Melo at all. The thing you would hope for is that having him still allowed FA's to feel they weren't coming to a team that had nothing. So we've gotten thru FA and have a solid roster. Now if Melo shows he can play the way he always has that would give us a very nice trade chip going forward. At any time this year if Melo should decide that he wants a win now roster he can waive his no trade. I think it still made sense to have him as an asset. I don't think he's gonna want to beg off from this team tho. I think Melo is gonna find a comfort zone with this team and help the team make a run for the playoffs. It's in his best interests to have a great year no matter what he decides he wants to do. Stay or Go, Melo has to perform.

he is not going to have any takers out there for win-now-- he's too expensive. more likely we get marbury 2.0.

If you look at the history of bloated contracts there is always a taker out there. Gilbert Arenas, Rashard Lewis, etc. Those guys had arguably just as bad or worse contracts than Melo and they somehow got moved. I think with the cap rising dramatically (and MSG is on the hook for his trade bonus, right? Not the receiving team-it BTW also reduces annually) Anthony will be moveable and I dont even think it'll be that hard, it just won't happen for another year or so when he has less years on his deal. Some team that is "almost there" like the Clippers last season who are desperate for a gunner will plunk down a couple assets for him especially in a year or two. We wont get much in return but who cares. He is a sunk cost at this point.

I think its a 100% virtual guarantee Melo is moved before his contract is up. Book it, it's going to happen especially if the Knicks don't make the playoffs this year. It really should be done ASAP but I dont think it happens during this season. He'll stick around this season, which actually may be better since it'll be easier to get into the 8th spot and avoid the indignity of losing another lotto pick. Then he can get traded in the offseason and we can go back to rebuilding around KP, Grant, and whomever we select with our 2017 pick.

H1AND1 wrote:

dk7th wrote:

nixluva wrote:

EnySpree wrote:We didn't move him earlier. The smart thing to do would have been to not even sign him at all...

without back tracking and just dealing with this situation, the Knicks are doing great and no matter what we will be fine

I actually disagree about not signing Melo at all. The thing you would hope for is that having him still allowed FA's to feel they weren't coming to a team that had nothing. So we've gotten thru FA and have a solid roster. Now if Melo shows he can play the way he always has that would give us a very nice trade chip going forward. At any time this year if Melo should decide that he wants a win now roster he can waive his no trade. I think it still made sense to have him as an asset. I don't think he's gonna want to beg off from this team tho. I think Melo is gonna find a comfort zone with this team and help the team make a run for the playoffs. It's in his best interests to have a great year no matter what he decides he wants to do. Stay or Go, Melo has to perform.

he is not going to have any takers out there for win-now-- he's too expensive. more likely we get marbury 2.0.

If you look at the history of bloated contracts there is always a taker out there. Gilbert Arenas, Rashard Lewis, etc. Those guys had arguably just as bad or worse contracts than Melo and they somehow got moved. I think with the cap rising dramatically (and MSG is on the hook for his trade bonus, right? Not the receiving team-it BTW also reduces annually) Anthony will be moveable and I dont even think it'll be that hard, it just won't happen for another year or so when he has less years on his deal. Some team that is "almost there" like the Clippers last season who are desperate for a gunner will plunk down a couple assets for him especially in a year or two. We wont get much in return but who cares. He is a sunk cost at this point.

I think its a 100% virtual guarantee Melo is moved before his contract is up. Book it, it's going to happen especially if the Knicks don't make the playoffs this year. It really should be done ASAP but I dont think it happens during this season. He'll stick around this season, which actually may be better since it'll be easier to get into the 8th spot and avoid the indignity of losing another lotto pick. Then he can get traded in the offseason and we can go back to rebuilding around KP, Grant, and whomever we select with our 2017 pick.

This may happen but I actually think there's a great chance that if this team sparks this year that Melo will stick around for the duration. It's a great city to be in if you make the playoffs. There's a good chance this team is in the hunt for a playoff spot. Heck the year before last they missed the playoffs by one game or so. This year Boston and Brooklyn were sub .500. It's gonna be a bit tighter this year with Miami likely to bounce back. Some other teams will likely get better. Still it's possible for the Knicks to be in the hunt for a spot and if things workout they could get in.

Eastern	        W	L	PCT	GB	CONF	DIV	HOME	ROAD	L 10	STREAK
Atlanta   	60	22	0.732	0.0	38-14	12-4	35-6	25-16	5-5	L 3
Cleveland	53	29	0.646	7.0	35-17	11-5	31-10	22-19	7-3	W 2
Chicago  	50	32	0.610	10.0	33-19	8-8	27-14	23-18	7-3	W 4
Toronto  	49	33	0.598	11.0	33-19	11-5	27-14	22-19	7-3	W 1
Washington	46	36	0.561	14.0	30-22	10-6	29-12	17-24	6-4	L 2
Milwaukee	41	41	0.500	19.0	30-22	7-9	23-18	18-23	5-5	L 1
Boston  	40	42	0.488	20.0	28-24	12-4	21-20	19-22	8-2	W 6
Brooklyn	38	44	0.463	22.0	24-28	10-6	19-22	19-22	6-4	W 1
Indiana 	38	44	0.463	22.0	28-24	8-8	23-18	15-26	7-3	L 1
Miami	        37	45	0.451	23.0	25-27	6-10	20-21	17-24	4-6	W 2
Charlotte	33	49	0.402	27.0	25-27	8-8	19-22	14-27	2-8	L 6
Detroit 	32	50	0.390	28.0	23-29	6-10	18-23	14-27	4-6	W 1
Orlando 	25	57	0.305	35.0	15-37	4-12	13-28	12-29	3-7	L 4
Philadelphia	18	64	0.220	42.0	12-40	2-14	12-29	6-35	0-10	L 10
New Yorko	17	65	0.207	43.0	11-41	5-11	10-31	7-34	3-7	L 1