mreinman wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

mreinman wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

mreinman wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

mreinman wrote:

yellowboy90 wrote:

nixluva wrote:I'd prefer Jordan, Danny Green and Bjelica. If not Jordan than Monroe, Green and Bjelica.

Well you can't do that unless you Stretch Calderon. I think a real option is sending a 1st with Calderon if that's what it would cost. Who knows maybe they can do it for cash and two 2s.

My plan for if they traded Calderon would be.

Monroe
Green/Carroll/ Harris
Joseph

Then use the TPE from Jose to do a S&T for Bjelica.

That would possibly get the team several young players with experience. IF the Knicks could get Monroe to take a contract starting at $14m since he wants to have a short contract would be all the better.

Say they get those players to sign contracts starting at $14m, $12, and $7m that would creat almost $3m to use to sign one more player and that's not counting the room exception money.

Why is Tobias Harris' WS48 so weak? I really have not watched him that much (who watches orlando?) so its hard for me to see why we would pay this guy so much money.

That's a good question. I'm not entirely sure. However, WS48 around .100 is not bad for a 22 year old. Very few 22 year olds are average NBA players.

he has played 4 years already. What has he shown to deserve to be paid so much? Just on potential? We are gonna pay a guy 12-15 per on potential?

Yeah, I think that is a little too much. I'd still project that a 22 year old with 4 years experience will have significantly better numbers by 25 and in his 7th year. I could easily see the WS48 going up to .140 or so.

can you provide a comp?

fyi: Monroe's first 2 years were .143, .161

The best I can do is share this link but it shows how total win shares (not WS 48) change as players age.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=2953

If a guy does not have 1 good WS48 year after being in the league for 4 years, I would think that it is crazy to pay him like a star.

Also, I believe Zach Lowe just put out an article how you can't over pay based on how high the cap will be the following years.

I'm not at my computer or I would post the links.

nixluva wrote:I'd prefer Jordan, Danny Green and Bjelica. If not Jordan than Monroe, Green and Bjelica.

I'd be happy if we came away with either of those and then we can sign some veterans to the vet min contracts.

mreinman wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

mreinman wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

mreinman wrote:

yellowboy90 wrote:

nixluva wrote:I'd prefer Jordan, Danny Green and Bjelica. If not Jordan than Monroe, Green and Bjelica.

Well you can't do that unless you Stretch Calderon. I think a real option is sending a 1st with Calderon if that's what it would cost. Who knows maybe they can do it for cash and two 2s.

My plan for if they traded Calderon would be.

Monroe
Green/Carroll/ Harris
Joseph

Then use the TPE from Jose to do a S&T for Bjelica.

That would possibly get the team several young players with experience. IF the Knicks could get Monroe to take a contract starting at $14m since he wants to have a short contract would be all the better.

Say they get those players to sign contracts starting at $14m, $12, and $7m that would creat almost $3m to use to sign one more player and that's not counting the room exception money.

Why is Tobias Harris' WS48 so weak? I really have not watched him that much (who watches orlando?) so its hard for me to see why we would pay this guy so much money.

That's a good question. I'm not entirely sure. However, WS48 around .100 is not bad for a 22 year old. Very few 22 year olds are average NBA players.

he has played 4 years already. What has he shown to deserve to be paid so much? Just on potential? We are gonna pay a guy 12-15 per on potential?

Yeah, I think that is a little too much. I'd still project that a 22 year old with 4 years experience will have significantly better numbers by 25 and in his 7th year. I could easily see the WS48 going up to .140 or so.

can you provide a comp?

fyi: Monroe's first 2 years were .143, .161

Harris has really only had one "good" year in terms of all around efficiency. He just started hitting the 3 at a decent clip and rebounding to his ability. He is only 22. I can see him developing into a very solid starter but yeah it's a gamble paying him the max. Tho I feel like a broken record in all these threads about FA's in that IF Harris plays to his potential a $15 mil salary when the cap explodes will be one of the best bargains in the NBA.

yellowboy90 wrote:Basketballinsiders did a breakdown of the salaries percentage for the cap as it increases over the next few years.

Also, I believe Zach Lowe just put out an article how you can't over pay based on how high the cap will be the following years.

I'm not at my computer or I would post the links.

I'd like to read that because it logically makes sense that contracts would become bargains relative to other higher contracts. I believe in Lowes latest piece he even mentioned how so and so's deal would "become a bargain". I'd def like to read the piece you are talking about because I've been assuming all this time and I could very well be way off base!

VCoug wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

mreinman wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

mreinman wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

mreinman wrote:

yellowboy90 wrote:

nixluva wrote:I'd prefer Jordan, Danny Green and Bjelica. If not Jordan than Monroe, Green and Bjelica.

Well you can't do that unless you Stretch Calderon. I think a real option is sending a 1st with Calderon if that's what it would cost. Who knows maybe they can do it for cash and two 2s.

My plan for if they traded Calderon would be.

Monroe
Green/Carroll/ Harris
Joseph

Then use the TPE from Jose to do a S&T for Bjelica.

That would possibly get the team several young players with experience. IF the Knicks could get Monroe to take a contract starting at $14m since he wants to have a short contract would be all the better.

Say they get those players to sign contracts starting at $14m, $12, and $7m that would creat almost $3m to use to sign one more player and that's not counting the room exception money.

Why is Tobias Harris' WS48 so weak? I really have not watched him that much (who watches orlando?) so its hard for me to see why we would pay this guy so much money.

That's a good question. I'm not entirely sure. However, WS48 around .100 is not bad for a 22 year old. Very few 22 year olds are average NBA players.

he has played 4 years already. What has he shown to deserve to be paid so much? Just on potential? We are gonna pay a guy 12-15 per on potential?

Yeah, I think that is a little too much. I'd still project that a 22 year old with 4 years experience will have significantly better numbers by 25 and in his 7th year. I could easily see the WS48 going up to .140 or so.

can you provide a comp?

fyi: Monroe's first 2 years were .143, .161

The best I can do is share this link but it shows how total win shares (not WS 48) change as players age.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=2953

Boom: http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&type=totals&per_minute_base=36&per_poss_base=100&lg_id=NBA&is_playoffs=N&year_min=&year_max=&franch_id=&season_start=1&season_end=-1&age_min=0&age_max=22&height_min=0&height_max=99&shoot_hand=&birth_country_is=Y&birth_country=&birth_state=&college_id=&draft_year=&is_active=&debut_yr_nba_start=&debut_yr_nba_end=&debut_yr_aba_start=&debut_yr_aba_end=&is_hof=&is_as=&as_comp=gt&as_val=&award=&pos_is_g=Y&pos_is_gf=Y&pos_is_f=Y&pos_is_fg=Y&pos_is_fc=Y&pos_is_c=Y&pos_is_cf=Y&qual=&c1stat=mp&c1comp=gt&c1val=1000&c2stat=ws_per_48&c2comp=gt&c2val=0.09&c3stat=&c3comp=gt&c3val=&c4stat=&c4comp=gt&c4val=&c5stat=&c5comp=gt&c6mult=1.0&c6stat=&order_by=age&order_by_asc=Y

List of players who had WS/48 of at least 0.09 by age 22.

These weren't down years for those guys. The players just didn't peak until later.
I still think the trend is more informative than individual cases. It would be nice to see what the average change in WS48 by age and years of experience is.

gunsnewing wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:Interesting. I only scanned through that list but I see that the following players were still only average (around .100) by age 22 and year 3 but later peaked:
Tyson Chandler, year 3, age 21, WS 48 .116
DeMarcus Cousins, year 3, age 22, WS 48 .092
Steve Nash, year 4, age 25, WS .094
Chauncey Billups, year 4, age 24, .098
DeAndre Jordan, year 3, age 22, .122

These weren't down years for those guys. The players just didn't peak until later.
I still think the trend is more informative than individual cases. It would be nice to see what the average change in WS48 by age and years of experience is.

PG's & Bigs are more likely to take a few years to peak than SF's. You need to develop both physically and mentally to play PG & big. SF have the luxury to float around in between the sesame of the offense and defense. Either they are efficient offensively and defensively or they are not.

Any SF's on that list? After 4yrs as a SF his WS should be higher.

Yup:

Player          Age    WS/48
Melo            20     0.090
Ryan Anderson   20     0.090
Tim Thomas      20     0.091
Corey Maggette  20     0.091
Paul George     20     0.091

gunsnewing wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

VCoug wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

mreinman wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

mreinman wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

mreinman wrote:

yellowboy90 wrote:

nixluva wrote:I'd prefer Jordan, Danny Green and Bjelica. If not Jordan than Monroe, Green and Bjelica.

Well you can't do that unless you Stretch Calderon. I think a real option is sending a 1st with Calderon if that's what it would cost. Who knows maybe they can do it for cash and two 2s.

My plan for if they traded Calderon would be.

Monroe
Green/Carroll/ Harris
Joseph

Then use the TPE from Jose to do a S&T for Bjelica.

That would possibly get the team several young players with experience. IF the Knicks could get Monroe to take a contract starting at $14m since he wants to have a short contract would be all the better.

Say they get those players to sign contracts starting at $14m, $12, and $7m that would creat almost $3m to use to sign one more player and that's not counting the room exception money.

Why is Tobias Harris' WS48 so weak? I really have not watched him that much (who watches orlando?) so its hard for me to see why we would pay this guy so much money.

That's a good question. I'm not entirely sure. However, WS48 around .100 is not bad for a 22 year old. Very few 22 year olds are average NBA players.

he has played 4 years already. What has he shown to deserve to be paid so much? Just on potential? We are gonna pay a guy 12-15 per on potential?

Yeah, I think that is a little too much. I'd still project that a 22 year old with 4 years experience will have significantly better numbers by 25 and in his 7th year. I could easily see the WS48 going up to .140 or so.

can you provide a comp?

fyi: Monroe's first 2 years were .143, .161

The best I can do is share this link but it shows how total win shares (not WS 48) change as players age.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=2953

Boom: http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&type=totals&per_minute_base=36&per_poss_base=100&lg_id=NBA&is_playoffs=N&year_min=&year_max=&franch_id=&season_start=1&season_end=-1&age_min=0&age_max=22&height_min=0&height_max=99&shoot_hand=&birth_country_is=Y&birth_country=&birth_state=&college_id=&draft_year=&is_active=&debut_yr_nba_start=&debut_yr_nba_end=&debut_yr_aba_start=&debut_yr_aba_end=&is_hof=&is_as=&as_comp=gt&as_val=&award=&pos_is_g=Y&pos_is_gf=Y&pos_is_f=Y&pos_is_fg=Y&pos_is_fc=Y&pos_is_c=Y&pos_is_cf=Y&qual=&c1stat=mp&c1comp=gt&c1val=1000&c2stat=ws_per_48&c2comp=gt&c2val=0.09&c3stat=&c3comp=gt&c3val=&c4stat=&c4comp=gt&c4val=&c5stat=&c5comp=gt&c6mult=1.0&c6stat=&order_by=age&order_by_asc=Y

List of players who had WS/48 of at least 0.09 by age 22.

Interesting. I only scanned through that list but I see that the following players were still only average (around .100) by age 22 and year 3 but later peaked:
Tyson Chandler, year 3, age 21, WS 48 .116
DeMarcus Cousins, year 3, age 22, WS 48 .092
Steve Nash, year 4, age 25, WS .094
Chauncey Billups, year 4, age 24, .098
DeAndre Jordan, year 3, age 22, .122

These weren't down years for those guys. The players just didn't peak until later.
I still think the trend is more informative than individual cases. It would be nice to see what the average change in WS48 by age and years of experience is.

PG's & Bigs are more likely to take a few years to peak than SF's. You need to develop both physically and mentally to play PG & big. SF have the luxury to float around in between the sesame of the offense and defense. Either they are efficient offensively and defensively or they are not.

Any SF's on that list? After 4yrs as a SF his WS should be higher.

mreinman wrote:

VCoug wrote:

gunsnewing wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:Interesting. I only scanned through that list but I see that the following players were still only average (around .100) by age 22 and year 3 but later peaked:
Tyson Chandler, year 3, age 21, WS 48 .116
DeMarcus Cousins, year 3, age 22, WS 48 .092
Steve Nash, year 4, age 25, WS .094
Chauncey Billups, year 4, age 24, .098
DeAndre Jordan, year 3, age 22, .122

These weren't down years for those guys. The players just didn't peak until later.
I still think the trend is more informative than individual cases. It would be nice to see what the average change in WS48 by age and years of experience is.

PG's & Bigs are more likely to take a few years to peak than SF's. You need to develop both physically and mentally to play PG & big. SF have the luxury to float around in between the sesame of the offense and defense. Either they are efficient offensively and defensively or they are not.

Any SF's on that list? After 4yrs as a SF his WS should be higher.

Yup:

Player          Age    WS/48
Melo            20     0.090
Ryan Anderson   20     0.090
Tim Thomas      20     0.091
Corey Maggette  20     0.091
Paul George     20     0.091

Age 20?

We are talking about after 4 years.

Those are just the first 4 guys I saw. It's a huge list.