EwingsGlass wrote:Thinking about your WinShare argument, I think it is a fine identifier of value. That said, I believe it actually excludes Tank teams (making Shveddy's appearance more interesting). That said, guys like Ed Davis are excluded even though his PER is substantial because those value plays did not result in Wins. The unnatural bias caused by tank teams may result in players being left off the list.

Second, I think stats against starters are slightly diff than stats against the bench. Most players left on the list are bench players. Coming in fresh against the opposing starters or against rotation players. In this regard comparing /48 numbers may be misleading. it is still valuable since most starters moved up in the rotation from the bench, but assuming the same performance level as a starter may be skewed. If I had a starter like Patrick Beverley and a bench player like Joseph, I would have to discount Joseph slightly by virtue of his role.

These guys may be the players of the future. But you might want to spend extra dollars on the starters that are performing to minimize risk that players will be able to perform when guarded by Jimmy Butler Kawhi Leonard or Dray Green.

Great points. It really is an extremely difficult job for any GM to make the right call. They have to look at everything and not just at Advanced Stats. I trust Phil in this regard since he also uses old fashioned basketball instincts and reasoning. Winning basketball is more Alchemy than strict science.

This process isn't going to be easy. I think they realize that and I'm sure they've gone thru tons of scenarios and player combinations.

VCoug wrote:

nixluva wrote:Who the Knicks go after in Free Agency will be impacted greatly by the Lottery on Tuesday. It totally changes everything we would do depending on which pick we get. Phil could decide to spread the money over 3 smaller contracts rather than sign a Max player. It's going to be very interesting to see what happens.

The cap could balloon to $89 million for 2016-17. Phil could be taking a 2 year approach where he does a little this summer and saves something for next summer.

People keep on saying this but no one names any players, except for Ajinca, that we'd realistically be able to sign for $8M/year.

This is not true people have named player's like koufos, joseph, Jerabko, Crowder, & Baynes.

Also, I am still naive enough to think the Knicks and Shved will make a hand shake deal for the room exception for 2.8m+ with an opt out then pay him in '16.

yellowboy90 wrote:

VCoug wrote:

nixluva wrote:Who the Knicks go after in Free Agency will be impacted greatly by the Lottery on Tuesday. It totally changes everything we would do depending on which pick we get. Phil could decide to spread the money over 3 smaller contracts rather than sign a Max player. It's going to be very interesting to see what happens.

The cap could balloon to $89 million for 2016-17. Phil could be taking a 2 year approach where he does a little this summer and saves something for next summer.

People keep on saying this but no one names any players, except for Ajinca, that we'd realistically be able to sign for $8M/year.

This is not true people have named player's like koufos, joseph, Jerabko, Crowder, & Baynes.

Also, I am still naive enough to think the Knicks and Shved will make a hand shake deal for the room exception for 2.8m+ with an opt out then pay him in '16.

Are people actually talking about trying to sign Jerebko, Crowder, and Baynes? Baynes sucks. Crowder has one good half-season to his name and will be a restricted free agent. Jerebko is meh.

I wonder if it's possible for fans to set expectations so low for free agency this Summer that it will be impossible to be disappointed.

CrushAlot wrote:

VCoug wrote:

yellowboy90 wrote:

VCoug wrote:

nixluva wrote:Who the Knicks go after in Free Agency will be impacted greatly by the Lottery on Tuesday. It totally changes everything we would do depending on which pick we get. Phil could decide to spread the money over 3 smaller contracts rather than sign a Max player. It's going to be very interesting to see what happens.

The cap could balloon to $89 million for 2016-17. Phil could be taking a 2 year approach where he does a little this summer and saves something for next summer.

People keep on saying this but no one names any players, except for Ajinca, that we'd realistically be able to sign for $8M/year.

This is not true people have named player's like koufos, joseph, Jerabko, Crowder, & Baynes.

Also, I am still naive enough to think the Knicks and Shved will make a hand shake deal for the room exception for 2.8m+ with an opt out then pay him in '16.

Are people actually talking about trying to sign Jerebko, Crowder, and Baynes? Baynes sucks. Crowder has one good half-season to his name and will be a restricted free agent. Jerebko is meh.

I wonder if it's possible for fans to set expectations so low for free agency this Summer that it will be impossible to be disappointed.

I like Crowder a lot. I didn't think his game would transfer to the nba but it has. He has a lot of moxie. The Cavs were gunning for him. Pretty amazing since he isnt a star. I think his mentality transferred to hs teammates. That s huge because he doesn't back down or ever appear to be intimated by his opponent. I don't think the celts let him go but I think he would be a great signing.

What does he do well? Anything? At least with Cory Joseph you're hoping he's an above average shooter and ball handler. Biyombo you're hoping he's a Camby or at least Chris Andersen. Koufos and Ajinca I guess we're hoping for Robin Lopez, maybe? Crowder is, what, a poor man's Wilson Chandler?

nixluva wrote:

callmened wrote:i have a feeling we'll end up with monte ellis and josh smith and theyll be promoted as former all stars to lift the knicks into contention. lol

Phil is a basketball purist. He's not into just names. He has a very specific blueprint for the kind of players he needs at each position. Phil wants a dominant Post presence to anchor the offense, rebound and hopefully a rim protector as well. He wants wings that can score at the basket and who can shoot without having to dribble the ball. He wants guards who can defend and attack the basket as well as pass. he wants EVERYONE to be able to pass the ball. He's going to be looking for players with multiple skills and a passion to win. This is based on his statements over the years which he constantly repeats what he wants.

i dont think phil is calling the shots. a basketball purist wouldnt have resigned melo to a 5 yr committment.

CrushAlot wrote:

callmened wrote:

nixluva wrote:

callmened wrote:i have a feeling we'll end up with monte ellis and josh smith and theyll be promoted as former all stars to lift the knicks into contention. lol

Phil is a basketball purist. He's not into just names. He has a very specific blueprint for the kind of players he needs at each position. Phil wants a dominant Post presence to anchor the offense, rebound and hopefully a rim protector as well. He wants wings that can score at the basket and who can shoot without having to dribble the ball. He wants guards who can defend and attack the basket as well as pass. he wants EVERYONE to be able to pass the ball. He's going to be looking for players with multiple skills and a passion to win. This is based on his statements over the years which he constantly repeats what he wants.

i dont think phil is calling the shots. a basketball purist wouldnt have resigned melo to a 5 yr committment.

I disagree. There are only a few guys as talented as Melo. As a gm your goal is to get that guy and build around him.

Yeah people get too caught up in dissing Melo and aren't really being fare to his talent. He's not a perfect player but he's one of the few players in this league that can get a shot when the offense stalls and he can go off at any time. Phil's philosophy on winning teams is that after you've put together a solid roster you MUST have an X Factor type who can make something out of nothing when you need it. Guys like Melo and Pierce are valuable in the Playoffs. Pierce literally missed keeping his team alive by hundredths of a second.

You have to have certain constants in your top 6 rotation. Guys you can depend on every night. Phil made sure he kept at least one and now he has to add a few more but he isn't starting with nothing.

Phil wants to build a team with size, length, athletic ability and Skill. He has said he wants Post Presence that can pass. He wants shooters who can catch and shoot, cut and finish, without having to dribble the air out of the ball. He wants guys that can attack the basket and get to the FT line. He's not going to waste resources on players that don't advance the overall efficiency of the team. That's why I didn't waste my time focusing on players who aren't productive. WS/48 may not be perfect but at least it's some measure of production that can separate quality impact players from the rest.

yellowboy90 wrote:

VCoug wrote:

yellowboy90 wrote:

VCoug wrote:

nixluva wrote:Who the Knicks go after in Free Agency will be impacted greatly by the Lottery on Tuesday. It totally changes everything we would do depending on which pick we get. Phil could decide to spread the money over 3 smaller contracts rather than sign a Max player. It's going to be very interesting to see what happens.

The cap could balloon to $89 million for 2016-17. Phil could be taking a 2 year approach where he does a little this summer and saves something for next summer.

People keep on saying this but no one names any players, except for Ajinca, that we'd realistically be able to sign for $8M/year.

This is not true people have named player's like koufos, joseph, Jerabko, Crowder, & Baynes.

Also, I am still naive enough to think the Knicks and Shved will make a hand shake deal for the room exception for 2.8m+ with an opt out then pay him in '16.

Are people actually talking about trying to sign Jerebko, Crowder, and Baynes? Baynes sucks. Crowder has one good half-season to his name and will be a restricted free agent. Jerebko is meh.

I wonder if it's possible for fans to set expectations so low for free agency this Summer that it will be impossible to be disappointed.

I'm just throwing out names that have been thrown out there that fit under $8m. Ajinca, Koufos, and Joseph have been on my list because they are low cost high rewards type and if they do not work out as startes at least I have locked down some nice back ups. I still think Ajinca might be had for mmle type money. That could be wishful thinking but I think he was hidden behind Davis enough and he is still not a starter caliber play so how much will teams pay for a back up who has flashed but is still a risk? If I am wrong he might go around the same amount Koufos goes for and if that is the case give me Ajinca and resign Cole for another vet min deal.

Joseph is the only real young PG out their that is available. I just do not see the Spurs investing more money in their pg position.

I know people do not like him and think he is a duplicate of Melo but give me the 22 y/o Harris at 13.5m w Parson like language. Can his shoe "bonus" make up for the 2.2m he probably wants? I want a young player and I'll figure out the fit later.

Harris is an interesting guy to me but I'm not sure we can get him for $13.5M. Orlando offered him $12M already and he's going to be a RFA this summer. I don't think an extra $1.5M convinces them not to match.

CrushAlot wrote:

callmened wrote:

nixluva wrote:

callmened wrote:i have a feeling we'll end up with monte ellis and josh smith and theyll be promoted as former all stars to lift the knicks into contention. lol

Phil is a basketball purist. He's not into just names. He has a very specific blueprint for the kind of players he needs at each position. Phil wants a dominant Post presence to anchor the offense, rebound and hopefully a rim protector as well. He wants wings that can score at the basket and who can shoot without having to dribble the ball. He wants guards who can defend and attack the basket as well as pass. he wants EVERYONE to be able to pass the ball. He's going to be looking for players with multiple skills and a passion to win. This is based on his statements over the years which he constantly repeats what he wants.

i dont think phil is calling the shots. a basketball purist wouldnt have resigned melo to a 5 yr committment.

I disagree. There are only a few guys as talented as Melo. As a gm your goal is to get that guy and build around him.

I agree. I'm actually a melo fan but paying any player max money after the age of 30 is foolish. IMHO. Year 4 and 5 the knicks will be regretting that contract. I believe Phil knows this and even suggested that melo take a pay cut for the team. So he took a 5 mill paycut. Lol