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OT: Is Tobias Harris the NBA's Most Underrated Player?
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CrushAlot
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5/7/2015  11:02 PM
BRIGGS wrote:
Knixkik wrote:
BRIGGS wrote:This is where analytics need to take a step back. Tobias is a good player and rated somewhat fairly. Hes nothing special and he gets hurt a lot. Hes played on a team that has avg 20 something wins and his stats have a hollowness about them.

He's only 22 years old. I don't think it's fair to judge his impact on a team to that extent. By age 25 or 26 when he's closer to his prime things could be a lot different. The talent is there.

You understand that the Knicks have 0/100 chance to get Tobias Harris right? Does anyone in the forum think other teams are spawning grounds to send the NY Knicks players for free?

there are reports Harris would like to come home. If Harris is offered a Parsons type deal do you think the Magic match?
I'm tired,I'm tired, I'm so tired right now......Kristaps Porzingis 1/3/18
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BRIGGS
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5/7/2015  11:11 PM
CrushAlot wrote:
BRIGGS wrote:
Knixkik wrote:
BRIGGS wrote:This is where analytics need to take a step back. Tobias is a good player and rated somewhat fairly. Hes nothing special and he gets hurt a lot. Hes played on a team that has avg 20 something wins and his stats have a hollowness about them.

He's only 22 years old. I don't think it's fair to judge his impact on a team to that extent. By age 25 or 26 when he's closer to his prime things could be a lot different. The talent is there.

You understand that the Knicks have 0/100 chance to get Tobias Harris right? Does anyone in the forum think other teams are spawning grounds to send the NY Knicks players for free?

there are reports Harris would like to come home. If Harris is offered a Parsons type deal do you think the Magic match?

The Magic have/will match any offer--no question about it.

RIP Crushalot😞
CrushAlot
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5/7/2015  11:20 PM
BRIGGS wrote:
CrushAlot wrote:
BRIGGS wrote:
Knixkik wrote:
BRIGGS wrote:This is where analytics need to take a step back. Tobias is a good player and rated somewhat fairly. Hes nothing special and he gets hurt a lot. Hes played on a team that has avg 20 something wins and his stats have a hollowness about them.

He's only 22 years old. I don't think it's fair to judge his impact on a team to that extent. By age 25 or 26 when he's closer to his prime things could be a lot different. The talent is there.

You understand that the Knicks have 0/100 chance to get Tobias Harris right? Does anyone in the forum think other teams are spawning grounds to send the NY Knicks players for free?

there are reports Harris would like to come home. If Harris is offered a Parsons type deal do you think the Magic match?

The Magic have/will match any offer--no question about it.

I know that is what they are saying but it could be posturing. I like Tobias but I don't think he deserves a max deal and I think the Knicks might be better off chasing other Gus with ther cap space. I always thought of him as a plan b or c. The guy you sign because you missed out on your targets and because he wants to be a Knicks.

I'm tired,I'm tired, I'm so tired right now......Kristaps Porzingis 1/3/18
BigDaddyG
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5/7/2015  11:32 PM
CrushAlot wrote:
BRIGGS wrote:
CrushAlot wrote:
BRIGGS wrote:
Knixkik wrote:
BRIGGS wrote:This is where analytics need to take a step back. Tobias is a good player and rated somewhat fairly. Hes nothing special and he gets hurt a lot. Hes played on a team that has avg 20 something wins and his stats have a hollowness about them.

He's only 22 years old. I don't think it's fair to judge his impact on a team to that extent. By age 25 or 26 when he's closer to his prime things could be a lot different. The talent is there.

You understand that the Knicks have 0/100 chance to get Tobias Harris right? Does anyone in the forum think other teams are spawning grounds to send the NY Knicks players for free?

there are reports Harris would like to come home. If Harris is offered a Parsons type deal do you think the Magic match?

The Magic have/will match any offer--no question about it.

I know that is what they are saying but it could be posturing. I like Tobias but I don't think he deserves a max deal and I think the Knicks might be better off chasing other Gus with ther cap space. I always thought of him as a plan b or c. The guy you sign because you missed out on your targets and because he wants to be a Knicks.


This isn't last year, were the lack of decent wings on the market forced teams to overpay for Parsons and Ariza. There's no guarantee he gets max. Harris is the type of guy you want because of his age and the fact he keeps improving. He's got a solid post game and he's a handful from the triple threat position. I don't understand how guys find it easy to throw money at a 29 year old journeyman who's playing at level he obviously won't sustain for an entire season, but are scared off by a younger player who continues to show improvement year after year. I starting to think this forum has a bias against players from LI.
Always... always remember: Less is less. More is more. More is better and twice as much is good too. Not enough is bad, and too much is never enough except when it's just about right. - The Tick
BRIGGS
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5/7/2015  11:48 PM


BigDaddyG wrote:
CrushAlot wrote:
BRIGGS wrote:
CrushAlot wrote:
BRIGGS wrote:
Knixkik wrote:
BRIGGS wrote:This is where analytics need to take a step back. Tobias is a good player and rated somewhat fairly. Hes nothing special and he gets hurt a lot. Hes played on a team that has avg 20 something wins and his stats have a hollowness about them.

He's only 22 years old. I don't think it's fair to judge his impact on a team to that extent. By age 25 or 26 when he's closer to his prime things could be a lot different. The talent is there.

You understand that the Knicks have 0/100 chance to get Tobias Harris right? Does anyone in the forum think other teams are spawning grounds to send the NY Knicks players for free?

there are reports Harris would like to come home. If Harris is offered a Parsons type deal do you think the Magic match?

The Magic have/will match any offer--no question about it.

I know that is what they are saying but it could be posturing. I like Tobias but I don't think he deserves a max deal and I think the Knicks might be better off chasing other Gus with ther cap space. I always thought of him as a plan b or c. The guy you sign because you missed out on your targets and because he wants to be a Knicks.


This isn't last year, were the lack of decent wings on the market forced teams to overpay for Parsons and Ariza. There's no guarantee he gets max. Harris is the type of guy you want because of his age and the fact he keeps improving. He's got a solid post game and he's a handful from the triple threat position. I don't understand how guys find it easy to throw money at a 29 year old journeyman who's playing at level he obviously won't sustain for an entire season, but are scared off by a younger player who continues to show improvement year after year. I starting to think this forum has a bias against players from LI.

The thing about RFA's the decisions are ultimately out of their hanmds

RIP Crushalot😞
nixluva
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5/8/2015  12:35 AM
yellowboy90 wrote:
nixluva wrote:
yellowboy90 wrote:
nixluva wrote:According to advanced stats Tobias rated as just below average in terms of his WS/48. League average is .100 and he came in at .098. That's not a good sign IMO. He clearly has talent but right now he has yet to put it all together in a way that is really impactful. Players doing things that lead to wins is pretty much my entire focus right now. I want players that are proven to be plus players that have an impact on team wins.

Tobias is a poor defender and not highly efficient offensively. That combo is basically a younger version of Melo. We'd do better to fill the team with highly efficient players even if they lack the overall talent that Tobias has. Players that are limited but highly efficient in what they do seem to be a smart way to go and then you can add in a couple of players who are able to create offense out of nothing even if it's not very efficient. In the Knicks case that player should be a guard who can break down a defense much like Shved was able to do. Shved is not a perfect player but in the end his WS/48 was a very solid .135.

DeMarre Carroll isn't a very talented shot creator but he sticks to what he can do and is very efficient as well as a solid defender. His regular season WS/48 was .154. Tobias could get there one day, so i'm not saying he's not a good player. Only that he has yet to figure out how to play on a higher level.

I find it interesting you use Shved as an example against Tobias when his career WS/48 is .046. He has had an abysmal WS/48 in 147 game sample compared to his good WS in 33 games in Philly and NY. On top of that Tobias has a higher career efficiency. Also, his Orlando WS/48 is right at league avg Now, price does play a part in both players evaluation.

I do understand the reservations about Tobias( I just don't like using Shved) because of the money a team would be paying. They would be overpaying a player based on the potential that a 22y/o would break out and having him locked into a long term contract. I do think Tobias offensively is on his way to becoming a better player and he needs to keep improving on defense. He needs to continue improving his 3pt shooting and increase his attempts. If I had a good team I would add Tobias at the right price.


Perhaps you didn't understand my point in mentioning Shved. It wasn't to say he's a direct comparison with Tobias. Why would I do that since there are forwards I could use to do that. I didn't directly compare Tobias and Shved. If you re-read what I wrote I said, Shved was merely mentioned in the same paragraph but not directly compared.

nixluva wrote:Tobias is a poor defender and not highly efficient offensively. That combo is basically a younger version of Melo. We'd do better to fill the team with highly efficient players even if they lack the overall talent that Tobias has. Players that are limited but highly efficient in what they do seem to be a smart way to go and then you can add in a couple of players who are able to create offense out of nothing even if it's not very efficient. In the Knicks case that player should be a guard who can break down a defense much like Shved was able to do. Shved is not a perfect player but in the end his WS/48 was a very solid .135.

DeMarre Carroll isn't a very talented shot creator but he sticks to what he can do and is very efficient as well as a solid defender. His regular season WS/48 was .154. Tobias could get there one day, so i'm not saying he's not a good player. Only that he has yet to figure out how to play on a higher level.

Tobias isn't perfect but he can create his own offense. I do want to see him perform at a higher level than he's shown so far. I didn't say he couldn't do that only that he hasn't done it.


I should have worded my post better.

I do understand they are not direct comparisons. What I was saying is I do not like using players like Shved numbers. You focused on an extremely small sample(NY,Hou, & Phi- ws/48 .135) out off another small sample(career- ws/48 .046) to describe how he could help a team ignoring the much larger sample of minutes that suggest he is a fringe player.

I pretty much agree with your overall Tobias assessment. I do think that if Tobias is actual coached by a smart coaching staff and gets to a team focused on analytics his game would jump instantly. Carroll is a good example of that. His shots from 10 ft to - < 3-pt has decreased over the last three years from 120('12-'13) to 88('13-'14) to 75('14-'15). That's what Tobias should be doing instead of going from 104 to 235 to 238 over the same time period as Carroll. Would he listen? Is this the staff that would tell him? That is probably the bigger question. Fisher and co seemed to start taking more threes and less mid range shots as the season went on but I have not looked at the numbers.

To me right now Tobias is a better version of Wilson Chandler. Chandler had similar potential but never put it all together will Tobias waste his potential like Chandler or grow into a player like Carroll.

Tobias is a very interesting case. I think his biggest issue is that he's a Tweener. He's not really a SF and he's not a PF either. At least Carroll can guard some smaller quicker guys, but Tobias doesn't have that kind of lateral quickness. He has very good straight line quickness and enough athletic ability to be effective. His lower body isn't as strong as Melo and thus he isn't really able to dominate as a post player. So that leaves straight line drives, Midrange and 3pt jumpers.

I would agree that you're right about him taking fewer midrange shots and that would immediately help him be much more efficient. I think he could perhaps try to turn himself into more of a stretch 4. I just don't see him being able to defend SF's. His hips look too stiff IMO. He might as well bulk up a bit more and play as a PF.

yellowboy90
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5/8/2015  2:50 AM
nixluva wrote:
yellowboy90 wrote:
nixluva wrote:
yellowboy90 wrote:
nixluva wrote:According to advanced stats Tobias rated as just below average in terms of his WS/48. League average is .100 and he came in at .098. That's not a good sign IMO. He clearly has talent but right now he has yet to put it all together in a way that is really impactful. Players doing things that lead to wins is pretty much my entire focus right now. I want players that are proven to be plus players that have an impact on team wins.

Tobias is a poor defender and not highly efficient offensively. That combo is basically a younger version of Melo. We'd do better to fill the team with highly efficient players even if they lack the overall talent that Tobias has. Players that are limited but highly efficient in what they do seem to be a smart way to go and then you can add in a couple of players who are able to create offense out of nothing even if it's not very efficient. In the Knicks case that player should be a guard who can break down a defense much like Shved was able to do. Shved is not a perfect player but in the end his WS/48 was a very solid .135.

DeMarre Carroll isn't a very talented shot creator but he sticks to what he can do and is very efficient as well as a solid defender. His regular season WS/48 was .154. Tobias could get there one day, so i'm not saying he's not a good player. Only that he has yet to figure out how to play on a higher level.

I find it interesting you use Shved as an example against Tobias when his career WS/48 is .046. He has had an abysmal WS/48 in 147 game sample compared to his good WS in 33 games in Philly and NY. On top of that Tobias has a higher career efficiency. Also, his Orlando WS/48 is right at league avg Now, price does play a part in both players evaluation.

I do understand the reservations about Tobias( I just don't like using Shved) because of the money a team would be paying. They would be overpaying a player based on the potential that a 22y/o would break out and having him locked into a long term contract. I do think Tobias offensively is on his way to becoming a better player and he needs to keep improving on defense. He needs to continue improving his 3pt shooting and increase his attempts. If I had a good team I would add Tobias at the right price.


Perhaps you didn't understand my point in mentioning Shved. It wasn't to say he's a direct comparison with Tobias. Why would I do that since there are forwards I could use to do that. I didn't directly compare Tobias and Shved. If you re-read what I wrote I said, Shved was merely mentioned in the same paragraph but not directly compared.

nixluva wrote:Tobias is a poor defender and not highly efficient offensively. That combo is basically a younger version of Melo. We'd do better to fill the team with highly efficient players even if they lack the overall talent that Tobias has. Players that are limited but highly efficient in what they do seem to be a smart way to go and then you can add in a couple of players who are able to create offense out of nothing even if it's not very efficient. In the Knicks case that player should be a guard who can break down a defense much like Shved was able to do. Shved is not a perfect player but in the end his WS/48 was a very solid .135.

DeMarre Carroll isn't a very talented shot creator but he sticks to what he can do and is very efficient as well as a solid defender. His regular season WS/48 was .154. Tobias could get there one day, so i'm not saying he's not a good player. Only that he has yet to figure out how to play on a higher level.

Tobias isn't perfect but he can create his own offense. I do want to see him perform at a higher level than he's shown so far. I didn't say he couldn't do that only that he hasn't done it.


I should have worded my post better.

I do understand they are not direct comparisons. What I was saying is I do not like using players like Shved numbers. You focused on an extremely small sample(NY,Hou, & Phi- ws/48 .135) out off another small sample(career- ws/48 .046) to describe how he could help a team ignoring the much larger sample of minutes that suggest he is a fringe player.

I pretty much agree with your overall Tobias assessment. I do think that if Tobias is actual coached by a smart coaching staff and gets to a team focused on analytics his game would jump instantly. Carroll is a good example of that. His shots from 10 ft to - < 3-pt has decreased over the last three years from 120('12-'13) to 88('13-'14) to 75('14-'15). That's what Tobias should be doing instead of going from 104 to 235 to 238 over the same time period as Carroll. Would he listen? Is this the staff that would tell him? That is probably the bigger question. Fisher and co seemed to start taking more threes and less mid range shots as the season went on but I have not looked at the numbers.

To me right now Tobias is a better version of Wilson Chandler. Chandler had similar potential but never put it all together will Tobias waste his potential like Chandler or grow into a player like Carroll.


but To
Tobias is a very interesting case. I think his biggest issue is that he's a Tweener. He's not really a SF and he's not a PF either. At least Carroll can guard some smaller quicker guys, bias doesn't have that kind of lateral quickness. He has very good straight line quickness and enough athletic ability to be effective. His lower body isn't as strong as Melo and thus he isn't really able to dominate as a post player. So that leaves straight line drives, Midrange and 3pt jumpers.

I would agree that you're right about him taking fewer midrange shots and that would immediately help him be much more efficient. I think he could perhaps try to turn himself into more of a stretch 4. I just don't see him being able to defend SF's. His hips look too stiff IMO. He might as well bulk up a bit more and play as a PF.


Synergy tracks defensive possessions in the NBA. They track when the defender faces isolations, pick and rolls, post-ups, hand-offs, and off-the-ball screens. We will refer to the collection of these defensive possessions as Defensive Possessions Against (DPA). Together, these constitute all of the defensive possessions (that Synergy tracks) where the defender is in a position to defend his man with all of his defensive options available. It excludes transition plays, put-backs after offensive rebounds, and kick outs after the shooters’ defenders dropped to help.

The chart below displays the DPA, points allowed on DPA, and FGM on DPA per 48 minutes played for six Orlando Magic. These are the six Magic that played at least 1000 minutes in 2014-15.

Orlando Defense on DPA

DPA

Tobias had the fewest DPA, the fewest points allowed and the fewest FGM against. All of the data suggests that Tobias is either proficient at preventing shots when opponents attack him or opponents are not choosing to attack Tobias as often as his teammates. In either case, the data supports that Tobias is a capable defender.

On the DPA, opponents shot 38% against Tobias. That number is respectable. For comparison, Oladipo and Payton both allowed opponents to shoot 44%. When we factor in the low rate at which Tobias allows shots, we see his overall defensive performance is quite impressive. Tobias allowed 2.51 FGM per 48 minutes played. Harris played 34.8 minutes per game. So, he allowed 1.82 FGM on DPA per game. Even if Harris had held opponents to a ridiculously low 28% shooting on DPA, it would have only reduced is FGA against by .5 FGM per game (or 1 FG every 2 games).

The article suggest other wise. I wished they showed each individual possession type but an overall 38% dfg% makes you think. This defers from Bargs having . good iso/post defense numbers with everything else garbage. Also, he lost some power when he decided to drop weight to focus on being more of a SF. He was tipping the scales above 240 lbs the season before. Also, Like I said before, I'm okay with having tweeners 1-5. The nba is changing into a bunch position-less players that can switch(Woody's delight) everything on D. Now, you will have to have capable defenders but that goes without saying, however, switching will allow the below avg defenders some leeway.

A FO is really going to have to do there due diligence regarding Tobias Defense. I'm going to look at his player tracking data when i get a chance. The age is whats going to make teams bite regardless though, imo. its like overpaying to get a 4 yr draft pick that you no is an NBA player. Next year he will be younger than Galloway and Early, lol. Now, his price tag will definately be higher though.

yellowboy90
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5/8/2015  3:12 AM
BRIGGS wrote:

BigDaddyG wrote:
CrushAlot wrote:
BRIGGS wrote:
CrushAlot wrote:
BRIGGS wrote:
Knixkik wrote:
BRIGGS wrote:This is where analytics need to take a step back. Tobias is a good player and rated somewhat fairly. Hes nothing special and he gets hurt a lot. Hes played on a team that has avg 20 something wins and his stats have a hollowness about them.

He's only 22 years old. I don't think it's fair to judge his impact on a team to that extent. By age 25 or 26 when he's closer to his prime things could be a lot different. The talent is there.

You understand that the Knicks have 0/100 chance to get Tobias Harris right? Does anyone in the forum think other teams are spawning grounds to send the NY Knicks players for free?

there are reports Harris would like to come home. If Harris is offered a Parsons type deal do you think the Magic match?

The Magic have/will match any offer--no question about it.

I know that is what they are saying but it could be posturing. I like Tobias but I don't think he deserves a max deal and I think the Knicks might be better off chasing other Gus with ther cap space. I always thought of him as a plan b or c. The guy you sign because you missed out on your targets and because he wants to be a Knicks.


This isn't last year, were the lack of decent wings on the market forced teams to overpay for Parsons and Ariza. There's no guarantee he gets max. Harris is the type of guy you want because of his age and the fact he keeps improving. He's got a solid post game and he's a handful from the triple threat position. I don't understand how guys find it easy to throw money at a 29 year old journeyman who's playing at level he obviously won't sustain for an entire season, but are scared off by a younger player who continues to show improvement year after year. I starting to think this forum has a bias against players from LI.

The thing about RFA's the decisions are ultimately out of their hanmds

Everyone understands that but if you are Orlando and you draft a Winslow or Johnson will you honestly want to pay Tobias anything over $10m as you try to get minutes for your draft pick an Aaron Gordon at the same position Harris plays? Well okay, we will pay him and trade him. You can't trade him until mid Jan. and if he is not traded at the Feb. deadline he will have 1st refusal. So, they will be up against teams that know they are stuck paying a guy they dont want plus they'll have to pay a trade kicker if they finally do get a second rd pick for Harris.

Now, if they draft Stein or etc all bets are off.

Bonn1997
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5/8/2015  7:44 AM
knickscity wrote:Sometimes you cant really trust stats, Tobias is one of those cases. The kid certainly can play and likely will get better. I'd be surprised if the Magic let him go, but he'd certainly be a player worth looking at.

It's not so much that you can't trust the stats. It's that you have to take a holistic look at all the valuable stats. It would be helpful to have people high up in the office with years of training on this.
TripleThreat
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5/8/2015  8:18 AM
Well people can argue over what "underrated" means all day long and try to make historical comparisons about Tobias Harris and argue about what metrics mean what over time, in the end,

Does Tobias Harris, at his likely cost to acquire this offseason, become a good signing for the Knicks, IF they can acquire him?

My take on Harris, in baseline terms, is that he profiles out more of a PF than a wing. Esp over time.

The Knicks already have a PF in Melo. Either putting Melo at SF ( which would be tragic to watch for years on the defensive end) or leaving Harris there when clearly age and time and skill set during a 4 year contract would say otherwise, is just IMHO a bad fit.

You can't just project what a player is now, you have to consider what he will likely be during the course of his contract. Melo might have spent most of his career at SF, but let's be real about it, as players age and start to decline, if they can, they slide over to the PF position.

Name after name I see on this board. LMA. David Lee. Bargs. Kanter. Monroe. It's just the Knicks running into the same hell as before. Spending big dollars on a PF instead of filling critical needs on the wings and the pivot. Given how much cap room Melo is chewing up, Harris would be a luxury signing.

Harris is a BETTER SIGNING for a different team with a different circumstance for it's current roster and it's asset base than the Knicks.

FIT MATTERS.

callmened
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5/8/2015  8:39 AM
i agree and im a BIG fan of harris. i like his skill set and upside but he doesnt fit. if he played next to melo the defensive gates would be flooded open. however with that said, i know there is mutual interest between the knicks and the harris fam to bring him home. he def wants out of orlando but as already discussed, that is up to the magic on whether or not they will keep him. i think alot depends on who they hire as coach.

in regards to advanced stats - folks have to watch ppl play. not all numbers are uniform or indicative of performance. i cant take bball stats TOO seriously because the dont account for BAD teams (playing for or against), MOTIVATION and other intangible factors such as defensive schemes. for example, one team might have a low rebounding rate because they dont focus on that as a priority - however theyre still a good team (spurs). one player might have bad FG% because he has no one else to create shots for him so he has to force things.

Anyone who has seem toby play knows that he has it all offensively - but the problem is consistency and effort. he can score 30 one nite and 4 the next. this also shows on defense. dude has the ability and foot speed to at least be an above average defender. but half the time he looks asleep. again, is this because hes a bad defender? or he hates orlando? or he hates his teammates? or his coach? we dont know that - so its really hard to conclude anything from stats

Knicks should be improved: win about 40 games and maybe sneak into the playoffs. Melo, Rose and even Noah will have some nice moments however this team should be about PORZINGUS. the sooner they make him the primary player, the better
Knixkik
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5/8/2015  8:46 AM
callmened wrote:i agree and im a BIG fan of harris. i like his skill set and upside but he doesnt fit. if he played next to melo the defensive gates would be flooded open. however with that said, i know there is mutual interest between the knicks and the harris fam to bring him home. he def wants out of orlando but as already discussed, that is up to the magic on whether or not they will keep him. i think alot depends on who they hire as coach.

in regards to advanced stats - folks have to watch ppl play. not all numbers are uniform or indicative of performance. i cant take bball stats TOO seriously because the dont account for BAD teams (playing for or against), MOTIVATION and other intangible factors such as defensive schemes. for example, one team might have a low rebounding rate because they dont focus on that as a priority - however theyre still a good team (spurs). one player might have bad FG% because he has no one else to create shots for him so he has to force things.

Anyone who has seem toby play knows that he has it all offensively - but the problem is consistency and effort. he can score 30 one nite and 4 the next. this also shows on defense. dude has the ability and foot speed to at least be an above average defender. but half the time he looks asleep. again, is this because hes a bad defender? or he hates orlando? or he hates his teammates? or his coach? we dont know that - so its really hard to conclude anything from stats


I don't think he's a bad defender at all. He actually could be a nice mix with Melo, they are interchangeable.
crzymdups
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5/8/2015  9:51 AM
callmened wrote:i agree and im a BIG fan of harris. i like his skill set and upside but he doesnt fit. if he played next to melo the defensive gates would be flooded open. however with that said, i know there is mutual interest between the knicks and the harris fam to bring him home. he def wants out of orlando but as already discussed, that is up to the magic on whether or not they will keep him. i think alot depends on who they hire as coach.

in regards to advanced stats - folks have to watch ppl play. not all numbers are uniform or indicative of performance. i cant take bball stats TOO seriously because the dont account for BAD teams (playing for or against), MOTIVATION and other intangible factors such as defensive schemes. for example, one team might have a low rebounding rate because they dont focus on that as a priority - however theyre still a good team (spurs). one player might have bad FG% because he has no one else to create shots for him so he has to force things.

Anyone who has seem toby play knows that he has it all offensively - but the problem is consistency and effort. he can score 30 one nite and 4 the next. this also shows on defense. dude has the ability and foot speed to at least be an above average defender. but half the time he looks asleep. again, is this because hes a bad defender? or he hates orlando? or he hates his teammates? or his coach? we dont know that - so its really hard to conclude anything from stats

I agree with this.

I also think he and Melo are too similar - they are both 6'8" - 6'9" tweeners. There may be some school of that thought the best guy to put next to Melo is another tweener so they can switch off on defense and put Melo on the lesser forward... maybe that would work? But it'd also make the team pretty small up front. Phil tends to be a fan of big and long 4s and 5s (and every position on the floor really)... so I dunno.

I've heard he wants to come to NY and wants out from Orlando. I still see Orlando matching any offer he gets and trying to maybe trade him for some assets at some point.

If the Knicks strike out elsewhere in FA, maybe they look to do a sign and trade for Tobias? I think the RFA guys are going to take a while to get resolved, like last summer.

If Tobias REALLY wants out of Orlando, he may do the Greg Monroe thing and play out his Qualifying Offer and aim to hit the FA market next summer when every team has max cap room and he'll be almost assured of getting a max on a team he wants to play for.

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stopstandthere
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5/8/2015  9:52 AM
I agree that Tobias Harris does not fit with the current Knicks roster, which is overlapping the position of Melo, i.e. power forward.

Based on the same reason, I do not think LMA suit as well.

crzymdups
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5/8/2015  9:56 AM
stopstandthere wrote:I agree that Tobias Harris does not fit with the current Knicks roster, which is overlapping the position of Melo, i.e. power forward.

Based on the same reason, I do not think LMA suit as well.

LMA is style of play... I think his style of play would complement Melo's - at least theoretically in the Triangle. They could play a high post / low post game. You could go small and have LMA at the 5 and Melo at the 4 or you could put a defensive center in and LMA at 4 and Melo at 3.

One BIG issue with the Knicks - Melo SHOULD be a PF at this point. His best two seasons ever came the two seasons he played at the 4 - 2012-13 and 2013-14. But Melo didn't WANT to play the four. He wanted to prolong his career at the three - which is one big reason CAA pushed Bargnani on the Knicks so hard.

I think Phil will need to sit down with Melo and talk to him about playing the 4 again. Though, Phil is big on big lineups, so he may see Melo at the 3. In which case, I think Phil and Melo are both wrong and the Knicks will be in danger of playing an outmoded brand of basketball. We shall see...

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H1AND1
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5/8/2015  10:32 AM    LAST EDITED: 5/8/2015  10:34 AM
TripleThreat wrote:Well people can argue over what "underrated" means all day long and try to make historical comparisons about Tobias Harris and argue about what metrics mean what over time, in the end,

Does Tobias Harris, at his likely cost to acquire this offseason, become a good signing for the Knicks, IF they can acquire him?

My take on Harris, in baseline terms, is that he profiles out more of a PF than a wing. Esp over time.

The Knicks already have a PF in Melo. Either putting Melo at SF ( which would be tragic to watch for years on the defensive end) or leaving Harris there when clearly age and time and skill set during a 4 year contract would say otherwise, is just IMHO a bad fit.

You can't just project what a player is now, you have to consider what he will likely be during the course of his contract. Melo might have spent most of his career at SF, but let's be real about it, as players age and start to decline, if they can, they slide over to the PF position.

Name after name I see on this board. LMA. David Lee. Bargs. Kanter. Monroe. It's just the Knicks running into the same hell as before. Spending big dollars on a PF instead of filling critical needs on the wings and the pivot. Given how much cap room Melo is chewing up, Harris would be a luxury signing.

Harris is a BETTER SIGNING for a different team with a different circumstance for it's current roster and it's asset base than the Knicks.

FIT MATTERS.

TripleThreat this is an honest question and im not trying to troll you. Besides your proclivity to harp on certain posters sometimes a bit too hard I find your posts on basketball very spot on and sometimes enlightening. However, sometimes it seems like you bash any and every player that is hypothetically proposed as a target for Knicks' acquisition. So my question is, what players do you think we should go after in the current situation. Put away all misgivings about the current management etc and pretend you're the GM: $33 million in cap space, Top 1-5 pick, and the current crop of FA's this year and next. What's your plan. What would you do and who would you go after. Assume we are stuck with Melo (we are, I know, but trading him is the only move not available to you in this hypothetical scenario).

BRIGGS
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5/9/2015  7:57 AM    LAST EDITED: 5/9/2015  12:41 PM
TripleThreat wrote:
H1AND1 wrote:TripleThreat this is an honest question and im not trying to troll you. Besides your proclivity to harp on certain posters sometimes a bit too hard I find your posts on basketball very spot on and sometimes enlightening. However, sometimes it seems like you bash any and every player that is hypothetically proposed as a target for Knicks' acquisition. So my question is, what players do you think we should go after in the current situation. Put away all misgivings about the current management etc and pretend you're the GM: $33 million in cap space, Top 1-5 pick, and the current crop of FA's this year and next. What's your plan. What would you do and who would you go after. Assume we are stuck with Melo (we are, I know, but trading him is the only move not available to you in this hypothetical scenario).

I believe, over time, I have discussed players I do like. I don't tend to do so frequently simply because I factor in the likelihood of the Knicks being able to acquire ( what do they have to trade? what can they trade? ) or sign ( how attractive will the Knicks be to a FA with choices?) said player or players.

I also have said before that I think it's pretty much useless to try to " specifically roadmap" a complete NBA rebuild from the ground up. Often, depending on where you pick, the draft has to come to you as a franchise and often given value on the board, the pick almost makes itself in most cases. I know Knicks fans might not want to hear that, but there is a large element of luck and chance and random variables in play. You can "target" Player X and Player Y, and come up with grand schemes to get them, but often times you need a large list of things to fall in order, in specific order, in your favor, for that to work out. Then the reply is often, well it doesn't hurt to talk about players, and I agree, it doesn't. People have opinions, people like prospects or free agents, nothing wrong with talking about them. The only long term problems I have are with two posters, Briggs and nixluva, who are free to have whatever opinions they like, they both however, IMHO, fail to understand how to interact with other adults in a civilized way. I have never heard either say "Well let's just agree to disagree" Personally I think both drive away far more basketball discussion than they bring, and they both post a lot.

I'd said before, while I don't think the Knicks have a bloody chance in hell of getting him, that if you are going to make an ill fated "push now" team instead of a tried and true classic NBA rebuild from the ground up with Melo as a core centerpiece of the team, then the Knicks would be behooved to go after Joakim Noah.

Noah offers this

1) He can play the pivot. The Knicks desperately need a center.

2) He plays the "right way" Fundamentals, hard work, work ethic, pure drive, leave it all on the floor, never give up, sell out everything for the team.

3) He has pedigree from a winning team and a winning system. He has tenure in how to win and what it takes to win and has deep playoff experience. He has also operated under duress, media scrutiny and how to deal with loss ( Rose)

4) He actually is quite possibly the most ideal fit for a Triangle big man. He has a high BB IQ, he is not athleticism dependent and his timing/instincts and court awareness are off the charts. He does a lot of the big things but also the little things that don't end up in the stat sheet to help a team win. Noah can run the Triangle from the high post and he's got enough veteran saavy and floor smarts to assimilate into said offense.

5) He's a leader. There will be no slacking with Noah in the locker room and on the floor. JR Smith would not have been pulling any of his happy horse**** shoelace crap or Shumpert dogging it or any of that other crap with Noah around. Not since Charles Oakley would the Knicks have a guy who would forearm shiver his own team mates if that's what it took to win.

6) The guy can defend the rim and offers plus defense, with grit and just pure sweat and blood. The guy, when healthy and properly paced out, can single handedly elevate a defense all on his own. The guy is basically the Terminator, he won't stop, you can't negotiate with him, you can't get him to compromise, you can't get him to quit. You will need to basically take a shotgun and shoot him in the face to stop him.

What are the downsides?

Thibs literally rode this guy into the ground. He's aging, more injury prone and he needs to be paced out/limited minutes at this point in his career to be effective. He's done some things I can't condone on a professional level. Mixing it up with fans. Screaming out homophobic slurs on the court. I can't knock Melo and Kobe for what I see is a lack of professionalism, and not knock Noah on them. He's also been pretty horrid of late for the Bulls. And he carries a 13.4 cap hit if the Knicks could trade for him, and the Knicks have nothing to trade for him. You would be getting a guy clearly entering his decline phase.

Other free agents or restricted guys I like, whom I think the Knicks "might" be able to get in certain circumstances who could help.

Chuck Hayes - For purely leadership purposes, I think he's a solid locker room asset. The Knicks desperately need guys who can help gel a locker room and team and know how to go about the business of being a NBA professional the right way. Fundamentally I'm a big believer that there is always at least one veteran spot useful for a guy who simply climbed up into an NBA roster on sheer will. If the Knicks get some rookie big men, I can only see Hayes being very helpful.

Luis Scola - In keeping with the above, if you get some young big men, actually have some players around who can show them how to work the post, how to maximize a back to the basket game, how to do the small subtle things that can let your terrorize the paint. Scola is a human low post clinic. Is he Al Jefferson? No, but the Knicks aren't getting Jefferson. Again, if you can get a vet liks this for a close to minimum deal, with limited minutes usage, and being a quasi coach as well, I think it's a plus situation.

Robin Lopez and Omer Asik. Neither are sexy names. But this is where you look across a players entire history, not just some small sample of games. Lopez will not jump out at you in any one place, but he's solid across the board. He and Asik give you enough defense to give you a chance every night on the floor. No one likes the baseline cost of an NBA grade starting center, even with flaws, but that's the reality of the game and market conditions. Pivots cost. Defense costs. Rim protection costs. Even with some flaws.

Defensively I like Brandan Wright ( Knicks won't get him) and Jae Crowder ( restricted ) I think Crowder is worth a look and fits into multiple categories for the Knicks ( He can play defense, he might actually be attainable in that Tier 4-5 range, he might be available without gutting cap space because of another team's possible salary crunch)

I've always like Ed Davis, the Knicks won't get him, clearly a handshake deal between his agent and the Laker last offseason.

Aaron Brooks. He's not going to give you defense. And I won't call him a Triangle fit. But pound for pound, cost to bang out ratio, the guy can play.

Al Farouq Aminu. Knicks won't get him. Nice oddball mix of rebounding and wing prowess. The kind of player the Knicks might have gotten if they had another GM in place instead of Phil Jackson last offseason.

Larry Sanders. At the vets minimum, if he could get his head straight, would be a massive value to the Knicks. Still young, still has a strong defensive / pivot pedigree.

Kyle Singler, Kyle O'Quinn and Cory Joseph. Knicks won't get them. But they all have something to offer.

Jimmer Fredette and Justin Holiday. Fredette is a hot mess but I think I'm entitled to one sort of leap of faith type role player ( If Rex Ryan can have John Connor at fullback as a luxury pick, I can have Fredette) I love Fredette on a fan level, but he's also a test case why I say picking the non African American high up in the draft is a low percentage move. ( It is a low percentage/low return move across modern NBA draft history, like it or not) A young wing with some deep playoff experience and being on a winning franchise like Golden State, there are worst long reach fliers in the NBA.

The ideal forward to pair with Melo? Taj Gibson. Knicks won't / can't get him. Jimmy Butler would be a great get. Knicks aren't getting him. Draymond Green? If he came at a certain cost point, but for what the Knicks would need to pay, with Melo and Calderon killing the cap space, it's too much of an imbalance.

People will say, what about this player or that player or THAT player! And I say, Knicks won't get them. Or signing them will cripple the team long term. Or they are poor fit. Or they create even more of a roster/cap imbalance.

As I've said before, Knicks need pivots and need wings. And as I've said before, THERE'S A REASON THE PLAYERS WHO ARE AVAILABLE ARE AVAILABLE IN THE FIRST PLACE. There's a reason the originating teams aren't fighting tooth and nail to throw max resigning dollars at a Tobias Harris or Greg Monroe. Then factor in Melo IMHO is basically an elite 1 vs 1 isolation gunner/chucker with no defense, no leadership and create all kinds of negative tradeoffs. Of course I'm going to knock a lot of the discussed pickups here. It's a list of clearly flawed players at some level ( again, there's a reason their originating teams didn't bend hand over foot to resign them, and let's not pretend Jimmy Butler and Kawhi Leonard are in that discussion, they are a much more unique situation ) trying to meld around a heavily flawed "core" player in Melo.


If the Knicks could get Larry Sanders to some magical guru sports therapist, he's worth a flier. If the Knicks could walk away with Robin Lopez, Jae Crowder, Aaron Brooks, Larry Sanders and Chuck Hayes with some cap space left over, I'd call that a win given the situation. I don't think it's in line with a true rebuild, but it's in line with the clear treadmill team that Phil Jackson is going to force feed us, one way or another.

What's the situation? The Top Tier 1 and Tier 2 free agents aren't coming to the Knicks. Not unless it's a gross overpay. And if they don't have any other choices of equal compensation or close to equal compensation. And given cap holds and such, the Knicks don't have 33 million in raw cap space.

As for the draft, I've said before, the value seems to rest in Towns, Okafor and Russell in that order if the Knicks get a top 3 pick. If the Knicks get 1, they take Towns, if they get 2, they take either Towns or Okafor, whichever is left. If the Knicks get 3, then take whomever is left of Towns, Okafor and Russell, with odds on it being Russell. If the Knicks get 4 and the other players are off the board, I'd say go Cauley Stein.

Other players in the draft I like ( not factoring in if the Knicks can get them or not right now) These are not guys I'd use a top lottery pick on, but I think they all have things that can help the Knicks.

Domantas Sabonis
Jameel McKay
Delon Wright
Devin Booker
Rondae Hollis Jefferson

And while I don't tend to like sub 6 foot guards, I do like Fred VanVleet a lot.

I'll talk more about that non lottery list as the draft gets closer.

And H1And1 and even Martin/Andrew. I think you'd find more guys coming out of the woodwork to talk prospects if you didn't have Briggs basically insulting everyone on every thread if someone disagrees with him ("You don't watch film, you don't know the players, you don't know what I know! Wah! Wah!) . The "prove it to me, prove me to by giving me a list why your opinion should matter" is a good way to drive off posters and participation. Straight up, some of you guys might not like me, and that's fine, but the way some of you act, esp Briggs and Nixluva, is going to and probably drives away the ten other guys you would like a lot more than me, but don't feel like it's worth it to talk Knicks only to get their balls busted for it for the crime of having a different opinion.

Triple Threat---You bash both of us because we select players we think will help the team. You have come on many times and are vulgar nasty and rude to us. How come this really hasnt happened in 13 years until now? 1 of the great things about this forum since you have not been here are people get along. If I have an opinion so be it--so does everyone--sometime people think my opinion is poor--I accept it and I don't spew insults. If I dont agree with someone I might sat something I might not--but I try not to insult anyone in anyway and if I feel I went over the top--I immediately apologize. You bash every player that is mentioned as possible helps--all trades are "rapes" not possible but when asked yourself--you write 6 lines on another teams player--Noah without once telling anyone how you can get them--is that fair or makes sense? Dont the Bulls want massive compensation the Knicks do not have? He might be a good fit--maybe not--but exactly how do you get him here? I like Anthony Davis too but I don't type his name because it has no chance.
I wont comment how you would to me or nixluva on most of the guys like Lopez Asik that you mentioned etc.. Ill respect your opinion while I disagree that
they are answers. And Sabonis McKay and Van Fleet are not even in this draft and like you tell me--exactly how did you get that second pick to get Rondae
Jefferson? If you critique me like this I would not care as I believe Ive stayed in a reasonable friendly tone which you can as well--but thats your
choice. Nixluva and I dont agree on everything but not 1nc have I said something obnoxiously derogatory towards him in all these years other than a few rose colored glasses comments. Best wishes.

RIP Crushalot&#128542;
nixluva
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5/9/2015  11:39 AM
So... BRIGGS and I post threads mostly about legit options for this team in either the Draft, UDFA's, Trades or FA's and somehow we're killing off opinion from others? Not only BRIGGS and myself but lots of others have put up legitimate options for discussion. This is a rare instance where TripleThreat has actually listed who he thinks the Knicks should try to bring in. In other words he participated in the conversation. All we ever want is for people to participate and express their opinions but not to character assassinate each other. Sure we'll sometimes get a bit heated, but that's only human.

What would be the point of me making a WS/48 thread if not for others to use that information to help make their own minds up for who they'd like to go after? BRIGGS posting video and info on obscure talent for us to look into is a great aspect of this forum. I think overall everyone is free on this forum to add whatever they wish. I'm not going to critique TT's post as I think the relationship is too toxic for me to touch, but I welcome his input on the forum, since i've asked in the past for his specific opinion on what the Knicks should do. Now we actually have his take on what the Knicks should do and that's what this forum is about. Minus the personal attacks.

RonRon
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5/9/2015  1:24 PM    LAST EDITED: 5/9/2015  1:35 PM
some players that I hope we can aquire in trades, especially if we can buy low for them

As Briggs and Phil Jackson has said, players that have the ability to take it to the rim and score consistently

1- Shabazz Muhammad, he really looked great last season dedicated to his improvement physically and skills that he worked, would use a future 1st rounder if needed

2- Tony Wroten, along with some cost efficient players on Philly, they likely will target a PG like Mudiay and if we can buy low for Wroten like a swap of Tim Hardaway JR/Early, etc, maybe a future 2nd rounder, if we do use a protected 1st rounder, I would want back a combination of some early 2nd rounders in this summer, future drafts, and/or some cost efficient players/continued development talents like Robert Covington, Thomas Robinson in a sign and trade at low cost 2year deal for continued development, maybe Hollis Thompson/Ish Smith/Cannons/ some of their SF's

3- DMO/Terrence Jones *especially if we do take back bad contracts this summer for more draft picks and CA would want out, if Houston would offer us a good return/package*

4- Meyers Leanard/Mike Muscula/Walter Tavares/Nikola Jokic *compared to a young Vucevic which Denver has the draft rights to*, depending on how we fill out our FA, as a stretch 4/5, though I would not use a 1st rounder for them alone, with Portland they will have a lot of FA's that they will have to pay in order to keep and if they do resign LA and Lopez, Leanard could be a target assuming they pick up Kaman's 5m team option

5- some lower tier role players that could be signed or traded for include

Alex Ajincia
Lavoy Allen

Some G/F's outside of Danny Green *do not think we can overpay for him but do feel he would be a good pickup at about 7-8m and a bit less for Matthewws because of his injury, maybe most of the MLE while resigning Cole Aldrich as we own his early bird rights to get the FULL MLE*

at 5m or less,
Wesley Johnson *feel he would fit in with Thanasis together and would help his development as a mentor as they have similiar strengths and weakness's while Johnson could help his development*
Jae Crowder
Aminu

Matt Barnes *on a short term deal at low cost if we are unable to get any SF's on value, despite his age*

Tyler Zeller/Brandon Bass/Evan Turner

Although the PG has never been a STAR player in the past for the Triangle, it doesn't mean that a GOOD PG could play a BIGGER role on OFFENSE that the Triangle hasn't had in the past, though we will need shooters/defenders and some low post threats as well
With that said, I would like to keep Shved at under his qualifing offer, at about 2.5m -3.3m on a short term deal for 2years, paying him backup money like Sessions, Bayless, DJ Augustine got last summer as we further anaylze his strengths and fit for the system with our change of players

I think Thanasis has a very high ceiling and could be a Trevor Ariza type of player with his versatility if he improves his 3pt shooting like Ariza did in the Lakers
I do understand that many teams will likely want him as well because of his high motor/defensive abilities/ceiling and low cost
I am also quite high on Orlando Sanchez as a backup PF/C, both Thanasis and Sanchez, I would like to sign 3year deals with team options to avoid future poison pills
We should also pick up about 2 contracts on the D League, maybe

Elliot Williams/Jarell Eddie
Tim Frazier/Aaron Craft

CJ FAIR
Arinze Onuaku/Backnaski/Willie Reed

There have been so many great D League callups the past couple season, especially last season that could have changed our future like
Just this past season alone, with D League callups, and maybe some undrafted players in this summers draft and past drafts
Along with 2nd rounders, some of which are mid/late, like Jordan Clarkson, Bklyns late 2nd round picks they acquired,

Tyler Johnson/Langston Galloway
Jabari Brown/Jarrell Eddie

Justin Holiday/Elliot Williams
Orlando Sanchez/ Arinza Onuaku

Whiteside


we have to be real, we are not going to be contenders overnight, it is going to be a 2-3year process, and how we fill each position of need/development with FA and our draft picks/future draft picks, collect talents on cost efficient contracts and rotate assets, absorb bad contracts for assets, and save flexibility in 2017 with the rise of the cap to till out our roster must be calculated
No FA is likely to currently choose NY over another team if the money was about the same, for those reasons we will need to improve and show that we have the ability to win in the future, in order to get the TOP TIER FA's in 2017
I am not sure if CA will be part of our plans moving forward


What type of money would Andray Blatche be making and be a steal for us?
If Andrew Bynum could be our development coach or vet min player with unguaranteed money, if we draft a BIG, especially to mentor OK4...

I think we have to get the best trainers/development coaches if we are going to go YOUNG this summer

Brian Shaw *hope we get him, as Fisher clearly isn't ready, demote Rambis*
Rasheed Wallace/Jermaine Oneil/Horace Grant
Battier/Pippen/Kukoc
Billups/Ron Harper

along with some of the apprentices of Phil Jackson

CrushAlot
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5/9/2015  1:35 PM
^^^^I like the d league list. Any word on what is going on with Sanchez? He did finally go to Puerto Rico. I also think Lavoy Allen will be a bargain.
I'm tired,I'm tired, I'm so tired right now......Kristaps Porzingis 1/3/18
OT: Is Tobias Harris the NBA's Most Underrated Player?

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