Just wondering.

smackeddog wrote:If we don't get the number 1 pick, can we all agree to stop comparing OK4 to Duncan and instead compare him to Al Jefferson- it will help ease the pain

We should be comparing him to Jefferson anyway; that's his best comp as far as I'm concerned.

smackeddog wrote:If we don't get the number 1 pick, can we all agree to stop comparing OK4 to Duncan and instead compare him to Al Jefferson- it will help ease the pain

Haha I can see it already. OK4 is no better than Jared Sullinger and Mike Sweetney

smackeddog wrote:If we don't get the number 1 pick, can we all agree to stop comparing OK4 to Duncan and instead compare him to Al Jefferson- it will help ease the pain

Al Jefferson? He'll be Olowokandi to me.

yellowboy90 wrote:I'd be okay with Towns at 2. There is nothing wrong with him as a consultation prize. Give me a big that can rebound at a high level while surrounded by other great rebounders and not only that he passes, blks shots, and shows signs of having a offensive game.

yup and he has done more than show signs on offense. If he was starting for a team other than Kentucky his numbers would be dominant

The lottery is conducted with witnesses verifying that all 14 balls are represented once as they are placed in the lottery machine. The balls are placed in the machine for 20 seconds to randomize prior to having the first ball drawn. The remaining three balls are drawn at 10-second intervals.

NBA officials determine which team holds the winning combination and that franchise is awarded the #1 overall draft pick. The four balls are returned to the machine and the process is repeated to determine the second and third picks. In the event that a combination belongs to a team that has already won its pick (or if the one unassigned combination comes up), the round is repeated until a unique winner is determined.

When the first three teams have been determined, the remaining picks are given out based on regular season record with the worst teams getting the highest picks. This assures each team that it can drop no more than three spots from its projected draft position.

Seed	Chances	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	
1	250	.250	.215	.178	.357										
2	199	.199	.188	.171	.319	.123									
3	156	.156	.157	.156	.226	.265	.040	

smackeddog wrote:

earthmansurfer wrote:

H1AND1 wrote:

smackeddog wrote:Yeah, one of the beat writers tweeted a picture showing how rare it's been that the worst team gets the top pick. I think the Lakers will end up with the no 1.

Tweet was deleted or there was problem with the URL:

https://twitter.com/benchwarmerdan/status/551446790198034434

Although Bonn1997 said something about 'gamblers fallacy', meaning with regards to odds, what has come before has no bearing on what will come next.

He is exactly right. The fact that the worst team hasn't won in so long is simply an aberration. Repeated over the "long run", the odds will even out and you'll see the team with the worst record winning at the appropriate clip. Thus since the team with the worst odds still mathematically has the best chance, teams should aim for the worst record no matter what has happened in the past.

Exactly, math is on our side now. The odds must work back to average out and the worst record is due the #1 pick.
After seeing more video of Okafor, that guy is definitely the #1 pick. He has so much Tim Duncan (but more amped/energetic) in his offensive game. Sorry, I don't watch a ton of ball, but his footwork and moves inside just reminded me of Tim. If we don't get the #1 pick, I don't think we can go with Towns, he is just too far away. Perhaps that guard Briggs mentioned as he can contribute. Yeah, that part bit with that guy currently on the Lakers. But, now, with a lot of cap space and Melo, we need someone who can contribute more than Towns.

that's the gambler fallacy Bonn1997 was talking about- what has come before has no bearing on what will happen this year- they are two completely independent events. The deluded gambler (i.e. me!) would look at that record and say "well the worst team is due to have either the 1st pick or the 3rd, because neither has happened in a while", but the reality is the odds will be exactly the same as they were in each if those previous years. The lottery machine doesn't remember what came before.

Knicks1969 wrote:The Celtic are making some very suspicious moves for this draft and we need to take notes. They are compiling a lot of picks; chances are, they will look to trade them for a couple of super-stars

By suspicious do you mean smart? How is it suspicious? They are stockpiling assets and I for one am jealous!