smackeddog wrote:

H1AND1 wrote:The SCHOENE model has them winning 32 games. Less than last year as well.

I was impressed that the computer last year foresaw Tyson's injury, and the quitting on the coach- even guessed that we'd have a rally at the end of the season! Remind me what else Schooner predicted regarding other teams not called The Knicks? Oh thats right, it was pretty much wrong. (not having a go at you, just the computer!).

Like in life, physics and basketball, you can't create an all knowing, future predicting computer because there are too many variables, and the greater number of variables you include, the greater the degree of chaos created due to the creation of more variables to take into account.

Yes, you are right "computers" cannot predict the future with 100% certainty. But what modern statistical models CAN do these days is give you an idea or a baseline as to what is reasonably likely to expect. There will always be outliers and instances where the computer models err but that is to be expected because as you said there are a lot of variables and nothing is ever _certain_.

All that being said, just because a stat model or computer model cant predict 100% of an outcome it is pretty foolish to simply dismiss any and all statistical models out of hand. Looking at the various projections, and especially when you look at multiple ones and they are each saying the same thing ie: 30 something wins, it stands to reason that the MOST LIKELY outcome this season is a win total around that amount. Could the Knicks win 40, 50 games? Sure. But what these models are telling us is that that is the least likely outcome along the range of win totals.

Again, just cause the projections arent foolproof doesnt mean they have no value. Its a matter of thinking about it correctly. And i will lend more credence to a well thought out computer or statistical model, which by the way is made by humans-the computer simply does the number crunching-than a bunch of fans or so called "expert" sportswriters' projections which are based on their feelings and what they think they see any day of the week (and not that that has zero value, but it IMO it has a helluva lot less than a well thought out statistical model).

knicks1248 wrote:

BRIGGS wrote:

StarksEwing1 wrote:I think 40-45 games is a pretty fair prediction. I think we can be a playoff team around the 6-8 seeds but most likely wont go far. This is a transition into next offseason when we have more money available

Here si the problem. Even if we win 50 games this year--this team has multiple FA including our entire frontline. So whatever you see this year good or bad--I don't see a continuation necessarily as we are likely going to have to renounce almost every FA to use a max contract anyway.

There's not one single FA that will be available worth max money beside aldridge, not Gasol, or dragic. While Amare, Bargi, and shump may or may not be part of the knicks future. If they turnout to have break out seasons (like most up incoming FA do) will be once again scrambling to fill out a roster with a very suspect 2015 FA class.

Were banking on gasol leaving the grizz and signing with the knicks like it's a formality...smh

There's a good possibility we will strike out in FA next summer were 20 other teams have cap space, and start talking about were saving cap for durant who plays the same damn position as melo.

I'm not understanding why some of you are not truly pulling for this team to make a strong run so we can attract the top FA, instead of talking tanking and rebuilding around a 30 yr old player is in the absolute prime of his career.

I will speak for myself here but I think this is what most mean when they say to tank this season is that we are absolutely NOT going to contend this year so we might as well tank or as fans we can root for a tank because in reality if its done right this team can rebuild very quickly. I dont think anyone is suggestion a Philly style 4-5 year span of throwing a d league team out there though Im sure some fans out there would be ok with that.

Anyway, my point is this season is a throwaway with the opportunity to turn it around quickly thereafter due to the opening up of basically 75% of our cap. If we luck into a high pick next draft then all the better for our quick rebuild. How sweet would it be to add a top pick to our roster to go along with whatever FA signings we make over the next couple years? The knicks could build a pretty nice squad.

And Durant could play multiple positions as can Melo. Personally, my wet dream scenario is winning the lottery this season then getting Durant and Noah in free agency

dk7th wrote:i am sticking with 35 wins, and i admit that it is based on emotion. first, i "have faith" in derek fisher's leadership ability. the better coaches are leaders and i think that has to count for a few extra games. my win total is also spurred by a sort of "desperation by proxy," ie. the knicks HAVE TO do well enough this season to be an appealing destination, or their overarching plan is crippled.

My question to you have you examined the league

And identified the better coaches

Side question here, had Phil not whiffed on Kerr

Would your coaching emotional opinion stick

knicks1248 wrote:

BRIGGS wrote:

StarksEwing1 wrote:I think 40-45 games is a pretty fair prediction. I think we can be a playoff team around the 6-8 seeds but most likely wont go far. This is a transition into next offseason when we have more money available

Here si the problem. Even if we win 50 games this year--this team has multiple FA including our entire frontline. So whatever you see this year good or bad--I don't see a continuation necessarily as we are likely going to have to renounce almost every FA to use a max contract anyway.

There's not one single FA that will be available worth max money beside aldridge, not Gasol, or dragic. While Amare, Bargi, and shump may or may not be part of the knicks future. If they turnout to have break out seasons (like most up incoming FA do) will be once again scrambling to fill out a roster with a very suspect 2015 FA class.

Were banking on gasol leaving the grizz and signing with the knicks like it's a formality...smh

There's a good possibility we will strike out in FA next summer were 20 other teams have cap space, and start talking about were saving cap for durant who plays the same damn position as melo.

I'm not understanding why some of you are not truly pulling for this team to make a strong run so we can attract the top FA, instead of talking tanking and rebuilding around a 30 yr old player is in the absolute prime of his career.

I was right there with you the past 15yrs but I've given up hope on tanking. The Knicks will never tank.

Thats 4 out of 5 years.

Low win totals are not "bash jobs" as some have come to call it. Its not hate, its just the way the factorials line up.

Barkley will not bash, but be nice about Phil.

We are not "tanking", were "rebuilding". Sounds better.

we go 2-8 are ya gonna call for Fish's head? You bet yah!

jrodmc wrote:And if we go 8-2 with inexplicable wins early on, will it be "fools gold"? You betcha!

The 54 win team wasn't even precious metals worthy

more "Fools Iron" when you saw through the fake hustle

And if the 54 win team was a recipe for winning then

No Stat and No Shumpert with Calderon and Daly playing near MVP caliber roles

F500ONE wrote:

dk7th wrote:i am sticking with 35 wins, and i admit that it is based on emotion. first, i "have faith" in derek fisher's leadership ability. the better coaches are leaders and i think that has to count for a few extra games. my win total is also spurred by a sort of "desperation by proxy," ie. the knicks HAVE TO do well enough this season to be an appealing destination, or their overarching plan is crippled.

My question to you have you examined the league

And identified the better coaches

Side question here, had Phil not whiffed on Kerr

Would your coaching emotional opinion stick

no i haven't identified the better coaches. my top 3, though, are popovich, doc rivers, and thibidaux. they share the ability to motivate their players. i think is sense or see the same ability in fisher. no, he doesn't have the talent and leadership of a noah, paul, or duncan as a partner.

i think kerr would have been fine here, but i am not so sure of his ability to motivate.

BRIGGS wrote:

nyk4ever wrote:im guessing 38-40. if this team gets the triangle, they'll have success.

I cant believe that this team would be a 31 win team unless Melo gets hurt. We did go 14-6 or something like that? down the stretch? IF THJ Melo Amare and JR can play up to their best capabilities and the rest of the guys are complimentary--we should be close to 41-43. This Bargnani stuff changed some of my original opinions.