Shumpert's Absence Will Prove His Value to the Knicks
I know. I'm always right
By Chris Herring
Updated Feb. 21, 2014 9:03 p.m. ET
Mike Woodson will miss Iman Shumpert more than fans might think. Associated Press
ORLANDO, Fla.—Knick fans can be forgiven for believing that the loss of the injured Iman Shumpert for two weeks might actually help the team if Mike Woodson just gives his minutes to J.R. Smith or rookie Tim Hardaway, Jr.
Shumpert, who has been seemingly allergic to the idea of getting to the rim, can't compare to Smith or Hardaway on offense. Even though he's been shooting 35% from three-point range (right at league-average), opponents have usually been comfortable leaving him open, in part because he only takes about three triples a game. So it wasn't very surprising when Woodson said Friday that he'd consider letting Smith start for the rest of the season if the team plays well while Shumpert is out.
But there's reason to think that Shumpert is much more valuable than he appears. The Knicks score more when he's on the court (105 points per 100 plays) than with Smith (104) or Hardaway (102). And Shumpert's rebounding rate of 9.8% is fourth-best in the NBA among guards, better than Smith (7.3%) or Hardaway (4.1%), both of whom are an inch taller than Shumpert.
Defensively, Shumpert has a tendency to be overaggressive, but the Knicks have surrendered just 102 points per 100 plays when he's on the floor, a figure that would rank the Knicks eighth-best in the NBA. When Shumpert goes to the bench, that number swells to 109 points per 100 plays, which is dead last. (With Smith and Hardaway, the Knicks allows 107.7 and 109.4 points per 100 plays, respectively, according to NBA.com.)
One reason for the disparity: The veteran-laden Knicks, who use double-teams on defense more than any other NBA team, are usually too slow when they use anyone but Shumpert to double.
A look back through game films reveals that opposing teams are scoring 48.2% of the time (53-of-110) when the Knicks use someone other than Shumpert to double-team in the post. But they allow baskets just 20.4% of the time (9-of-44) when Shumpert is bringing the double-team. According to Synergy Sports, the former rate would qualify as the best rate in the league, while the latter would easily rank as the worst.
Here's a good example: On Tuesday night in Memphis, with Shumpert on the bench, the Grizzlies' Mike Miller hit a critical three-pointer in the closing moments of what should have been a Knicks victory. Miller was wide open because Pablo Prigioni was busy double-teaming Memphis's Zach Randolph and couldn't get back to the perimeter in time to contest the shot.
The Knicks could find themselves the victims of this sort of play over the next week, as the Knicks will play four of the NBA's top-10 three-point shooting clubs.
Smith said the Knicks are essentially instructed to always double-team in the post once the ball reaches a certain point, regardless of who has the ball. "When we've got a guy going toward the paint, our scheme is to go double automatically," Smith said earlier this month when asked why the Knicks would consistently double-teamed Portland's Robin Lopez in a loss to the Trail Blazers.
Now, with Shumpert out and teams ready to take advantage of that habit, the Knicks may want to re-think their strategy.
2/22/2014 1:27 AM
But Dolan will be the owner still. 