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The DRAFT - The place where championships are born - A MUST READ
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tkf
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11/18/2013  1:31 PM
EnySpree wrote:
martin wrote:
EnySpree wrote:
gunsnewing wrote:Yea we've gone over this a billion times. Every championship included a star who was originally drafted by the team. They then add championship ship caliber free agents around them. It very simple. Knicks will never figure it out though

To get that start we would have to lose magnificently then be lucky to win the lottery. With the Knicks luck we'd get Tyrus thomas or Kwame brown. Our maybe we get Ewing and still never sign anyone to compliment him and still go 15 more years without winning.


It's a Crap shoot. How many teams do the draft and build up and still never win?

I think the Knicks just need to keep this thing going positively. We traded all our picks until 2018. We hope to still be winning at that point. We're going to fight for Kevin Love and whoever else. We have to ride this wave right now. Hopefully we start to hold on to our future picks and if things go south after 2018 we can do the draft thing..... right now we gotta build around Melo. Right now we are currently Fucking that up royally.

Gallo at #6. Weak draft more than anything, right? Wade went #5, Kobe #13, Dirk #9. Lots of luck involved.

Tony Parker went #30 right? It's not an exact thing. Even drafting Shump and Hardaway.... going back to Ariza and Wilson Chandler.... Knicks drafted all these great role players but no star.... say if we never traded for Melo..... the Knicks would have a gimpy Amar'e and rule players. Gallo is hurt, Wilson is just coming back from being chronically injured since he left ny.

Knicks just got to keep moving positively.... but as I said we cant even do that with the struggles were having now

and with that in mind, we should not be giving away picks.. that is the point.. we have no chance at such luck in 2014 and 2016.. if you think it is luck, why limit the chances?

Anyone who sits around and waits for the lottery to better themselves, either in real life or in sports, Is a Loser............... TKF
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arkrud
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11/18/2013  1:45 PM    LAST EDITED: 11/18/2013  1:47 PM
First a foremost organization must have vision and plan and stick to it.
This means that only proven and competent GM and coaching stuff must be employed.
No non-bbal people including owner should be involved in personal decisions.
Owner should set the financial restrictions and that's about it.
After this any avenue must be taken in consideration to better the team and build according to the plan.
Draft, FA, trades are all interdependent and should be in line with coaching decisions and style of teh team.

That's why we see the same teams in the list of great organization, and same teams winning the chip.
Simply because they did a great job in building the winners.
It may not be Dunking, Parker, Ginobly but Spurs will be great regardless with other names we all new.
The luck stays with the people who deserve it, because those who are not, cannot make use of it.

"There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy." Hamlet
dk7th
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11/18/2013  1:48 PM
arkrud wrote:First a foremost organization must have vision and plan and stick to it.
This means that only proven and competent GM and coaching stuff must be employed.
No non-bbal people including owner should be involved in personal decisions.
Owner should set the financial restrictions and that's about it.
After this any avenue must be taken in consideration to better the team and build according to the plan.
Draft, FA, trades are all interdependent and should be in line with coaching decisions and style of teh team.

That's why we see the same teams in the list of great organization, and same teams winning the chip.
Simply because they did a great job in building the winners.
It may not be Dunking, Parker, Ginobly but Spurs will be great regardless with other names we all new.
The luck stays with the people who deserve it, because those who are not, cannot make use of it.


like jeremy lin falling into our laps.

knicks win 38-43 games in 16-17. rose MUST shoot no more than 14 shots per game, defer to kp6 + melo, and have a usage rate of less than 25%
gunsnewing
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11/18/2013  1:52 PM    LAST EDITED: 11/18/2013  2:03 PM
martin wrote:
gunsnewing wrote:Yea we've gone over this a billion times. Every championship included a star who was originally drafted by the team. They then add championship ship caliber free agents around them. It very simple. Knicks will never figure it out though

Did this hold with Chauncy-led Detroit? Or do you consider Prince a star?

Detroit is the exception. Something we've also gone over 1 billion times

gunsnewing
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11/18/2013  2:01 PM    LAST EDITED: 11/18/2013  2:13 PM
It quite simple. You luck out and draft one of these guys. They are on rookie deals as they develop. Once they become stars they attrack other great players and away you go.

It's all a mute point for the Knicks though until one day Dolan is out of the picture completely

JohnStarksFan
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11/18/2013  2:02 PM
tkf wrote:
martin wrote:
gunsnewing wrote:Yea we've gone over this a billion times. Every championship included a star who was originally drafted by the team. They then add championship ship caliber free agents around them. It very simple. Knicks will never figure it out though

Did this hold with Chauncy-led Detroit? Or do you consider Prince a star?

I think he said that was the exception....

Only "blip" for the last 25+ years. I pointed this out.

JohnStarksFan
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11/18/2013  2:06 PM
EnySpree wrote:
martin wrote:
EnySpree wrote:
gunsnewing wrote:Yea we've gone over this a billion times. Every championship included a star who was originally drafted by the team. They then add championship ship caliber free agents around them. It very simple. Knicks will never figure it out though

To get that start we would have to lose magnificently then be lucky to win the lottery. With the Knicks luck we'd get Tyrus thomas or Kwame brown. Our maybe we get Ewing and still never sign anyone to compliment him and still go 15 more years without winning.


It's a Crap shoot. How many teams do the draft and build up and still never win?

I think the Knicks just need to keep this thing going positively. We traded all our picks until 2018. We hope to still be winning at that point. We're going to fight for Kevin Love and whoever else. We have to ride this wave right now. Hopefully we start to hold on to our future picks and if things go south after 2018 we can do the draft thing..... right now we gotta build around Melo. Right now we are currently Fucking that up royally.

Gallo at #6. Weak draft more than anything, right? Wade went #5, Kobe #13, Dirk #9. Lots of luck involved.

Tony Parker went #30 right? It's not an exact thing. Even drafting Shump and Hardaway.... going back to Ariza and Wilson Chandler.... Knicks drafted all these great role players but no star.... say if we never traded for Melo..... the Knicks would have a gimpy Amar'e and rule players. Gallo is hurt, Wilson is just coming back from being chronically injured since he left ny.

Knicks just got to keep moving positively.... but as I said we cant even do that with the struggles were having now

I think you're making the case. Yes, high picks usually higher value, but not always. Sometimes you find tremendous value lower. Either way, super valuable. All of them. The start of greatness is there.

martin
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11/18/2013  2:07 PM
gunsnewing wrote:
martin wrote:
gunsnewing wrote:Yea we've gone over this a billion times. Every championship included a star who was originally drafted by the team. They then add championship ship caliber free agents around them. It very simple. Knicks will never figure it out though

Did this hold with Chauncy-led Detroit? Or do you consider Prince a star?

Detroit is the exception. Something we've also gone over 1 billion times

Great, then don't say every.

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JohnStarksFan
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11/18/2013  2:09 PM
gunsnewing wrote:It quite simple. You luck out and draft one of these guys. They are on rookie deals as they develop. Once they become stars they at track other great players and away you go.

It's all a mute point for the Knicks though until one day Dolan is out of the picture completely

This is true and so damn frustrating. Well said though. +1

gunsnewing
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11/18/2013  2:09 PM    LAST EDITED: 11/18/2013  2:14 PM
You are right TKF. I've argued this with people here for years going back to Isiah a I keep getting is lottery picks does not guarantee anything

Well look where we are today. Obviously the path the Knicks chose which a lot of people blindly defended hasn't worked either. In fact it las gotten worse

Chicago struck out all those times with the jay Williams and curry's but eventually they netted rose and Noah. We had to sign Tyson for $14mil Melo and Amare for $20mil a piece. Both guys on the bad side of their prime. Amare completely finished

This is nothing new. It dates back to the Ewing and mcdyess trades and the Knicks never learn from their mistakes because there is no thought out plan under Dolan

The plan changes every year

gunsnewing
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11/18/2013  2:11 PM    LAST EDITED: 11/18/2013  2:14 PM
martin wrote:
gunsnewing wrote:
martin wrote:
gunsnewing wrote:Yea we've gone over this a billion times. Every championship included a star who was originally drafted by the team. They then add championship ship caliber free agents around them. It very simple. Knicks will never figure it out though

Did this hold with Chauncy-led Detroit? Or do you consider Prince a star?

Detroit is the exception. Something we've also gone over 1 billion times

Great, then don't say every.

Sorry I was being lazy. I assumed it was common knowledge that Detroit was the exception. 1 team in 25yrs+ I didn't feel it was necessary plus I was posting and driving which I should probably avoid all together

It was a masterful job of coaching by Larry brown and why the Knicks hired him. But in typical knick fashion we had a roster of castoffs and injured players with huge on the verge of retiring for medical reasons

tkf
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11/18/2013  2:17 PM
gunsnewing wrote:You are righ TKF. I've argued this with people here for years going back to Isiah a I keep getting is lottery picks does not guarantee anything

Well look where we are today. Obviously the path the Knicks chose which a lot of people blindly defended hasn't worked either. In fact it las gotten worse

Chicago struck out all those times with the jay Williams and curry's but eventually they netted rose and Noah. We had to sign Tyson for $14mil Melo and Amare for $20mil a piece. Both guys on the bad side of their prime. Amare completely finished

This is nothing new. It dates back to the Ewing and mcdyess trades and the Knicks never learn from their mistakes because there is no thought out plan under Dolan

The plan changes every year

YEA, there are no guarantees in the draft, there are no guarantees period... but what one should do is go back and look at the history of the league.. you will see a pattern...one that has led to success moreso than anything else... why not follow that pattern?

the knicks have taken short cut after short cut for years? it hasn't worked....

Good point about the bulls...the core of that team, sans boozer were drafted.. rose, Deng(drafted by suns for the bulls per agreement)noah and gibson.... all of those guys were drafted.. were the bulls just lucky?

as you said, this is nothing new, the knicks never, ever learn...

Anyone who sits around and waits for the lottery to better themselves, either in real life or in sports, Is a Loser............... TKF
gunsnewing
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11/18/2013  2:19 PM    LAST EDITED: 11/18/2013  2:34 PM
Yea forgot about deng

Also guys like brand curry Jamal and Tyson who were all parlayed for picks and players that improved the makeup of the the team

tkf
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11/18/2013  2:32 PM
gunsnewing wrote:Yea forgot about deng

Also guys like brand boozer and Tyson who were all parlayed for picks and players that improved the makeup of the the team

YEA, and even with boozer they got him as a FA the same time we got amare i think, but for a lot less... smart FA signings is key as well.

Anyone who sits around and waits for the lottery to better themselves, either in real life or in sports, Is a Loser............... TKF
jrodmc
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11/18/2013  2:45 PM
tkf wrote:
EnySpree wrote:
gunsnewing wrote:Yea we've gone over this a billion times. Every championship included a star who was originally drafted by the team. They then add championship ship caliber free agents around them. It very simple. Knicks will never figure it out though

To get that star draft kid we would have to lose magnificently then be lucky to win the lottery. With the Knicks luck we'd get Tyrus thomas or Kwame brown. Our maybe we get Ewing and still never sign anyone to compliment him and still go 15 more years without winning.


It's a Crap shoot. How many teams do the draft and build up and still never win?

I think the Knicks just need to keep this thing going positively. We traded all our picks until 2018. We hope to still be winning at that point. We're going to fight for Kevin Love and whoever else. We have to ride this wave right now. Hopefully we start to hold on to our future picks and if things go south after 2018 we can do the draft thing..... right now we gotta build around Melo. Right now we are currently Fucking that up royally.

thats like saying how many people wear seat belts and still get injured in accidents... the key is how many are not injured wearing seatbelts as opposed to those who don't.....

If someone is hurt badly in an accident not wearing a seat belt, do you start riding with yours off?

history backs up the point that those who utilize the draft win more so than those who don't.. plain and simple..

tkf, as well as being a prophet, you are the unchallenged king of really bad analogies.

A seat belt....and an NBA draft pick. Think about that for just a bit more than a second.

A seat belt failure would be statistically almost nil.
NBA Draft failures are far more endemic and far more fail than don't.

And it's not like every team doesn't draft. We've had years with three first rounders and still manage to draft ****. the draft failures and busts far outweigh the championship list built upon the Jordans, Duncans, Wades and Kobes of the world.

The point is, the draft doesn't guarantee success. It's a necessary aspect of every NBA team. But until you can explain the Suns, the Grizz, the Raptors, the Hornets, etc etc you haven't proved it's a sufficient aspect of building a championship team. You draft for twenty years and get sheeit. Than you draft one year and get LeQ. Notice we're at the bottom of the list, and so are the Heat and the Bulls.

That's a bit more a crapshoot than putting on a seat belt that's been tested tens of thousands of times by industry and governmental agencies.

Explaining success by showing successful players is like saying you need to pick really good apples off an apple tree.

Draft Success 1990-2002

Rank
Team
Avg. PER
Std. Dev.
1st Round Success
2nd Round 100+

1
Suns
16.1
3.93
80%
38.89%

2
76ers
15.07
3.53
63.64%
35.29%

3
Pacers
13.83
1.19
63.64%
36.36%

4
Cavaliers
14.57
3.31
61.54%
40%

5
Pistons
13.48
4.08
61.54%
44.44%

6
Grizzlies
16.59
2.79
60%
30%

7
Jazz
13.03
4.13
58.33%
45.45%

8
Raptors
14.96
5.26
55.56%
0%

9
SuperSonics
14.53
2.67
54.55%
47.37%

10
Hornets
15.51
4.26
50%
71.43%

11
Timberwolves
15
4.57
50%
35.71%

12
Warriors
14.77
2.96
50%
16.67%

13
Bucks
14.29
4.2
50%
62.50%

14
Spurs
13.99
5.69
50%
41.67%

15
Wizards
13.84
2.66
44.44%
53.33%

16
Celtics
13.13
4.33
42.86%
12.50%

17
Lakers
13.03
3.17
40%
27.27%

18
Nuggets
13.63
3.09
37.50%
35.71%

19
Magic
13.41
5.05
36.84%
57.14%

20
Kings
13.55
2.5
33.33%
44.44%

21
Clippers
13.29
2.4
31.58%
25%

22
Hawks
12.23
2.35
31.25%
25%

23
Trail Blazers
13.12
3.65
30%
20%

24
Mavericks
13.53
2.65
27.27%
57.89%

25
Rockets
12.48
5.15
26.67%
35.29%

26
Nets
13.23
3.45
25%
37.50%

27
Knicks
11.88
1.95
25%
12.50%

28
Bulls
12.6
3.83
20%
36.84%

29
Heat
13.45
1.6
11.11%
35.71%

fishmike
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11/18/2013  3:33 PM
this is simple.. are FAs important? Can stars be added via trade? Of course, but the history is impossibel to ignore despite JRod's best efforts. Every title except the Piston's has been won by a team who drafted a star player playing on that team.
Heat: Wade
Lakers: Kobe
Spurs: Duncan/Parker/Manu
Bulls: Jordan/Pippen
Rockets: Hakeem
Mavs: Dirk
Celtics: Pierce (weakest case, but still a max player, as big a star as ours)

Thats over 20 years counting...

Look at the Knicks... Look at how hard it is to get a real star player. we signed one he broke. We traded everything to get another and he's good but far from great.

What I take from this is simple... it takes luck to get a star. We all know this. Luck allowed the Spurs to draft Duncan over Keith Van Horn. Luck dropped Durant in the lap of the Sonics because Oden was off the board. We could do this all day. It takes luck to sign a FA, cap space, an available player, the right supporting cast.

The teams that get lucky twice win title or compete for them every year.

I can say with great certainty that the Knicks will not get lucky and draft a star, because we dont ever draft.

"winning is more fun... then fun is fun" -Thibs
EwingsGlass
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11/18/2013  5:50 PM
martin wrote:
gunsnewing wrote:
martin wrote:
gunsnewing wrote:Yea we've gone over this a billion times. Every championship included a star who was originally drafted by the team. They then add championship ship caliber free agents around them. It very simple. Knicks will never figure it out though

Did this hold with Chauncy-led Detroit? Or do you consider Prince a star?

Detroit is the exception. Something we've also gone over 1 billion times

Great, then don't say every.

Technically, Kobe was drafted by the Hornets.

You know I gonna spin wit it
EnySpree
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11/18/2013  7:12 PM
EwingsGlass wrote:
martin wrote:
gunsnewing wrote:
martin wrote:
gunsnewing wrote:Yea we've gone over this a billion times. Every championship included a star who was originally drafted by the team. They then add championship ship caliber free agents around them. It very simple. Knicks will never figure it out though

Did this hold with Chauncy-led Detroit? Or do you consider Prince a star?

Detroit is the exception. Something we've also gone over 1 billion times

Great, then don't say every.

Technically, Kobe was drafted by the Hornets.

You guys are Hilarious.

But still you have to admit you have to have some luck. Things just have to fall in place.

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JohnStarksFan
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11/18/2013  7:23 PM
EwingsGlass wrote:
martin wrote:
gunsnewing wrote:
martin wrote:
gunsnewing wrote:Yea we've gone over this a billion times. Every championship included a star who was originally drafted by the team. They then add championship ship caliber free agents around them. It very simple. Knicks will never figure it out though

Did this hold with Chauncy-led Detroit? Or do you consider Prince a star?

Detroit is the exception. Something we've also gone over 1 billion times

Great, then don't say every.

Technically, Kobe was drafted by the Hornets.

Come on dude. You know this was a pre-draft send-in by LA. The pick belonged to them. They picked Kobe regardless of what Stern said and the hat on his head.

JohnStarksFan
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11/18/2013  7:30 PM
EnySpree wrote:
You guys are Hilarious.

But still you have to admit you have to have some luck. Things just have to fall in place.

I admitted that. So did others. There's plenty of probability at play in the draft. I've looked over the drafts, ran some numbers. Roughly 50% become contributing members to teams 3 years later, and obviously much less become stars. But you know where the probability for being a winning team and competing for title and winning titles favors every NBA team? Being at the draft every year with a plan in place to get the best cheap young talent available and maximize their efforts, and possibly groom them to be homegrown stars that lead to titles. Because the probability of forsaking the draft for FA's and trades and still getting to the promised land is some lowly single digit, very close to the Knicks numbers of titles.

The DRAFT - The place where championships are born - A MUST READ

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