Let's say that Bargnani takes the exact same shots that Novak took last season -- 4.3 threes and one two pointer.Novak was able to score 6.6 points on those shots.
Based on Bargnani's career #s, which are far better than his more recent #s, Bargnani would score 5.5 points on those same shots. That means in limited minutes he'll have to add A LOT in other ways whether it's driving to the hoop more or playing defense (LOL). To illustrate, let's say Bargnani takes 5 other shots, all drives to the rim, and he takes those shots because they are better than any other shot the Knicks could have gotten on those possessions.
Last year, the KNicks averaged about 1.09 points per possession, but we'll say that Bargnani only takes those extra 5 shots on possessions that would otherwise have led to a subpar shot. We'll say his shots are replacing possessions that would have averaged 1 PPP, so the Knicks would have scored 5 points on those 5 possessions with their 12/13 team. To make up the 1.1 points we lose from Bargnani's inferior 3 point shooting, Bargnani would have to score then 6.1 points on those extra possessions, which equates to a TS% of 61%, which would make Bargnani an elite scorer. He would be the most efficient perimeter player the Knicks have had in my adult life, right up there with Tony Parker, Lebron and Durant as best in the league.
Back to Novak:
If you compare the Knicks' 3 pt % to Novak's minutes, it's almost a linear relationship, and the Knicks win differential is quite closely tied to their 3 pt %.
November:
Novak MPG: 23.2
Knick win differential/100 possessions: +10.5
Knick 3pt %: 41.6
December:
Novak MPG: 26.7
Knick win differential/100 possessions: +2.9
Knick 3pt %: 37.1
January:
Novak MPG: 19.0
Knick win differential/100 possessions: +2.5
Knick 3pt %: 36.0
February:
Novak MPG: 13.6
Knick win differential/100 possessions: +3.2
Knick 3pt %: 33.5
March:
NOvak MPG: 17.0
Knick win differential/100 possessions: +5.0
Knick 3pt %: 37.0
April:
NOvak MPG: 21.5
Knick win differential/100 possessions: +5.8
Knick 3pt %: 40.0
The only outlier month is December, when the Knicks struggled with a number of other issues -- Anthony and Kidd both had injury problems and towards the end, so did Felton.
So what does that tell me? It tells me that a system is dependent on having players who can fill the roles that that system demands, and the Knicks now have only one guy who over the last three seasons has been an above average 3 point shooter, and that guy is JR Smith, who will most definitely miss time and may struggle for a while after he returns. What are teams going to do when those minutes go to subpar shooters like Bargnani, MWP, and Udrih? They're going to put more pressure on guys like Felton and especially Anthony. The system won't work anymore because as I'm sure you know, there is no magic bullet system that automatically upgrades a player's shooting 3 point percentage.
