Bonn1997 wrote:

yellowboy90 wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

yellowboy90 wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:If you really want great spacing, you should replace Shumpert with Novak in the starting lineup. If you care about defense and overall performance and view spacing just as one of many factors, then you start Shumpert and Tyson (along with K-Mart & Melo)

WHy would you replace a 41% (career 34%) 3 point shooter with a 42%(career 43%) 3 point shooter that can't play D? Neither one are great two point shooter but Shump gives you a little more. I guess you do not believe in Shump's range.

I was just presenting two possible scenarios - I didn't state whether I'd start Novak or Shump. I haven't decided. You can make a stronger case for Novak I believe but I'd be reluctant to shake things up now. In Shumpert's case, his 3 point percentage is probably well above his true ability and what he's likely to shoot in the future. It's based on a small sample, way above last year's number, and above his percentage on deep 2 pointers (36%). Most players don't shoot a higher percentage from 3 than from long distance 2 point shots - either the 2 point shots will get better or the 3 point shots will get worse. From what we know about Shumpert, I think the latter is more likely.

Here are some other numbers: Shumpert's win shares and wins produced are below average and the team is much better with him off the floor (+/- is -14.6!) Novak's performing better in all those areas. The only argument I can see in favor of Shumpert is if you say you give more weight to your eyeball test than to every available piece of data. I can respect that if you say it. We just have a different way of analyzing the game.

last year Shump on 3 48/157.

This year Shump on 3 37/90

I really do not know who shump is. Unlike other bad shooters Shump shows good form and it was one thing he got to work on over the summer. Also, last year raw numbers do not tell the whole story. I would like to see the breakdown on assisted 3 pointers, unassisted, spot ups, transition, and floor position. That would paint a better picture.

I also know about Shump's on/off numbers but that was before his improved overall play. His only good numbers was when he subbed for Melo and played in a 4 guard line up but the sample is really to small to consider. IMO. Should I not give him leeway when he is coming off a major injury? Even if Shump is around 35-38% from 3 I would want him over NOvak. Considering his play at the rim improves. Right now though just ride the hot hand. The jury is still out on SHump.

Also, I do not put great value in WS/WP. They have some value I guess.

Out of curiosity, I calculated Shump's +/- for the last 4 games. It's +2.3. He is getting better. I definitely wouldn't take Shumpert out of the starting lineup now. That probably would just piss off the players since the team is doing well. I'd give it more time so we have more data and I'd potentially make the change after the next losing streak (which hopefully doesn't happen this year).

You are slightly off it was 37% from 16 ft to 3pt range last year and this year he is was at 41% before tonight's game. So that bodes pretty well for him. Like I said his problem is finishing at the rim. Which is odd for someone with his athleticism.

Also, check out this article. SHump may get even better at shooting.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323384604578326451812887938.html