Bonn1997 wrote:

but I watch every minute of every game and it's clear to me that when it happens it's a product of no one else being able to score or hit open shots.

This is a very common defense of Melo's bad shot selection but it's based on a misunderstanding of stats. The most important factors impacting the quality of a shot are the distance from the rim (ideally within 3 feet) and how close the defender guarding you is, *not* the name of the individual shooting the shot. The difference in efficiency of the most versus the least efficient shooters is rarely more than 10 points (around 50 vs. 40), whereas the differences based on location and openness from defenders are huge: about 65 vs. 35 for shots near the rim vs. from the perimeter, and it rises to close to 100% for open layups. An open layup by the worst offensive player on your team is a better shot than a contested jumper by your highest scorer. Players like Nash, Chris Paul, and Lebron understand that. They could all score far more points (Lebron could easily lead the league in scoring) if they wanted to but would rather get the highest percentage shot on each possession for someone on their team - either themselves or their teammates. Melo acts like he has to be the one shooting.

This is the silliest argument that is commonly (mis)used by you.

Of course a layup or a dunk is a better shot, but who says that a layup or a 3 footer or a 10 footer is always available? You take what the defense gives you and that can be very little depending on how strong your 5 is and their ability to break down the opposing defense. Kobe and Westbrook though awful shot selectors do not have the same excuse since they have/had extremely strong wing men. If Melo passes up a shot there is nobody to give it to - Westbrook has Durant - no excuse to force dumb shots.

Having said that, Melo def needs to be alot less selfish and trust in his teammates even if they might suck. [shudder] passing to Fields in the corner who for some reason has nobody near him

Melo once played a postseason with a good PG in CB and they went to the WCF's.

Of course a layup or a dunk is a better shot, but who says that a layup or a 3 footer or a 10 footer is always available?

Bonn1997 wrote:

Of course a layup or a dunk is a better shot, but who says that a layup or a 3 footer or a 10 footer is always available?

You try to get those shots but if there's nothing available and the shot-clock is running down, THEN you force a contested shot. I have nothing against contested jump-shots per se; it's contested jump-shots with more than 5 or 6 on the shot-clock that are problematic. The idea of shooting a contested jump-shot with 18 left on the clock should never even enter a player's mind.

You don't know if you can even get a contested jump shot against top defensive teams with 5-6 seconds left. Have you watched KD? Do you see how many contested jump shots he takes with alot of time on the shot clock? How about Wade?

Certain players cannot be contested, they just miss sometimes.

From what martin posted it looks like there are 3 scenarios

1. Use the full midlevel and have 4.6 million for 8 more players to fill the roster out assuming JR Smith doesn't exercise his option.

a) Who do y'all think is a realistic target and fit for $5M per?
b) How do we stretch 4.6 M for the remainder of the roster?

2. Use the full midlevel, JR Smith sucks up 2.5 mill, Knicks now have 2.1 M left for 7 players. Pretty bleak there

3. Use the mini mid level ($3M) and spend as much as they want with no hard cap.

I would love Nash on the Knicks but think he cripples us, especially if JR re-ups because we have peanuts for the rest of the roster. Dunno what happens with Novak, if he won't count against the 74 number.

Since we're all playing armchair GM my plan would be:

Go get Odom or Kidd with the mini mid level....with no hard cap hopefully we get back JR (don't see us getting anyone better for 2.5M), and now can chase a backup PG and another SG without worrying about the hard cap.

Bonn1997 wrote:

mrKnickShot wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

Of course a layup or a dunk is a better shot, but who says that a layup or a 3 footer or a 10 footer is always available?

You try to get those shots but if there's nothing available and the shot-clock is running down, THEN you force a contested shot. I have nothing against contested jump-shots per se; it's contested jump-shots with more than 5 or 6 on the shot-clock that are problematic. The idea of shooting a contested jump-shot with 18 left on the clock should never even enter a player's mind.

You don't know if you can even get a contested jump shot against top defensive teams with 5-6 seconds left. Have you watched KD? Do you see how many contested jump shots he takes with alot of time on the shot clock? How about Wade?

Certain players cannot be contested, they just miss sometimes.

Going by your logic, then, Lebron and Paul should take more contested jump-shots early in the clock because they don't have certainty that the team will be able to get better shots in the possession. Melo hits about 30% of his contested jump-shots and can create them at will in about 3 seconds. No offense is going to work 100% of the time but having him take shots he hits at 30% efficiency when there's 18 left on the clock is the worst strategy you can have.

If thats what you extrapolated then you completely missed my point. Lebron and Paul are both PG's who have excellent support. If the ball leaves Melo's hands and get STUCK in Landry's in the corner, there cannot be anything worse other than Tyson with the ball on top of the key, wide open with time winding down.

Miami denies Melo the ball and that makes it really hard to get it back. The jump shots also open up the drive which then must be respected.

Melo does take shots that he should not and I do hope that it improves next year but it will be easier to yell at him and hold him accountable if he had a smart offensive coach and players who can be counted on. Oh ... and of course a viable PG.

PP improved his shot selection when he was surrounded with more qualified players, I hope the same for Melo (funny how bad PP looked against Miami, Harden, Durant .......).

The rest of what you wrote is just excuses. Lebron played with absolute trash in Cleveland but showed exactly how to do it: take good shots and create good shots for your teammates. I don't think Melo has ever had to play a season with as weak a supporting cast as Lebron had there. As long as you're playing with teammates who are good enough to make it to the NBA, you don't have to jack up contested shots that you hit at a 30% rate with 18 on the clock.

Melo is an elite scorer. Not some guy who takes a ton of shots. We had that guy, his name was Jamal Crawford.

What the Knicks need to do is
1) feature the player(s) with the highest shooting % and thats Amare and Chandler. Feed those guys down low. If the shot isnt there kick it back out and get Melo on the elbow

That doesnt happen without a good PG and here's hoping and praying that Lin is that guy.

High PG play will get Melo the ball where he likes it.

If Melo is able to accept the offense wont run throug him on every possession and that when it doesnt he still needs to play hard and play like a top 20 player the Knicks will have a great (55 win) season next year.

If he's pouting because Amare and Chandler are getting more plays called for them and stops rebounding, defending and being active away from the ball the KNicks will be in the exact same place next year, complaining about a poor first round matchup before being elimintated

mrKnickShot wrote:

GodSaveTheKnicks wrote:Why does every thread in here somehow become Melo focused?

When you are the face of the franchise and the franchise is losing, it becomes a religion to kick the sh1t out of you (see Eli Manning).

It will stop when you win or are traded.

Ewing - Killed
Marbury - Killed
Melo - Killed
Arod - Killed (less since he won with the yanks)

fishmike wrote:

mrKnickShot wrote:

GodSaveTheKnicks wrote:Why does every thread in here somehow become Melo focused?

When you are the face of the franchise and the franchise is losing, it becomes a religion to kick the sh1t out of you (see Eli Manning).

It will stop when you win or are traded.

Ewing - Killed
Marbury - Killed
Melo - Killed
Arod - Killed (less since he won with the yanks)

agreed and its fair. Eli (always liked him) forced a trade to NY. Melo did the same and it cost a king's ranson in players and Melo is getting paid, so it cost the Knicks twice.

Yeah - Eli got paid too

I am not defending the trade since it is way too complicated to understand to outcome of the alternative scenarios.

And Melo will get killed until he wins or at least gets close to it (a couple of times). Is that fair? There is no "fair" in NY

GodSaveTheKnicks wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

GodSaveTheKnicks wrote:Why does every thread in here somehow become Melo focused?

From what martin posted it looks like there are 3 scenarios

1. Use the full midlevel and have 4.6 million for 8 more players to fill the roster out assuming JR Smith doesn't exercise his option.

a) Who do y'all think is a realistic target and fit for $5M per?
b) How do we stretch 4.6 M for the remainder of the roster?

2. Use the full midlevel, JR Smith sucks up 2.5 mill, Knicks now have 2.1 M left for 7 players. Pretty bleak there

3. Use the mini mid level ($3M) and spend as much as they want with no hard cap.

I would love Nash on the Knicks but think he cripples us, especially if JR re-ups because we have peanuts for the rest of the roster. Dunno what happens with Novak, if he won't count against the 74 number.

Since we're all playing armchair GM my plan would be:

Go get Odom or Kidd with the mini mid level....with no hard cap hopefully we get back JR (don't see us getting anyone better for 2.5M), and now can chase a backup PG and another SG without worrying about the hard cap.

Amare and Melo consume almost all our cap, and Amare is a hopeless, old man not even worth talking about.

We can't write off Amare yet simply because to do so means writing off our next 2-3 seasons until he becomes "Amare's expiring contract" at which point we might as well keep him.

But given that Melo looks like he's here to stay and Amare is untradeable, wouldn't it be more fun to figure out what to do with our remaining cap space to try to build a contender than fantasize about trading Melo which would be possible if Dolan weren't at the helm of the good ship Knickerbocker..

Godsave, I'm with you. Bonn, hopeless old man? That's f'in ridiculous son, and you know it.

Bonn1997 wrote:

fishmike wrote:Bonn.. your stat analysis isnt quite on. Leage average FG% is .448 while Melo's career average is .456
Every team Melo has been on he's been the featured scorer. You cant just assume %s will be the same when the volumes increase. Its not fair or accurate. Melo also averages a fantastic 8 FTAs a game where he scores at 80%

Melo is an elite scorer. Not some guy who takes a ton of shots. We had that guy, his name was Jamal Crawford.

What the Knicks need to do is
1) feature the player(s) with the highest shooting % and thats Amare and Chandler. Feed those guys down low. If the shot isnt there kick it back out and get Melo on the elbow

That doesnt happen without a good PG and here's hoping and praying that Lin is that guy.

High PG play will get Melo the ball where he likes it.

If Melo is able to accept the offense wont run throug him on every possession and that when it doesnt he still needs to play hard and play like a top 20 player the Knicks will have a great (55 win) season next year.

If he's pouting because Amare and Chandler are getting more plays called for them and stops rebounding, defending and being active away from the ball the KNicks will be in the exact same place next year, complaining about a poor first round matchup before being elimintated

It's not an assumption. Sabermetricians have found that when players FGAs change, their percentages don't. Your FG #s are accurate and when you take into account the entire offensive game (True shooting percentage, assists, and turnovers) Melo is about average in efficiency. He has the skill-set but not the mind-set to be a much more effective player on offense though.

How about Kobe?