TripleThreat wrote:Knixkik wrote:So when it is all said and done, however you spin it, it was the right move.
I disagree, no offense, IMHO I think what ended up was a "favorable current result", but I don't think it was the "right move"
For example. I think if I'm 16 years old and I smoke 3 packs of cigarettes a day for 30 years, there's a good chance I'll die of lung cancer. Now I might be one of those super rare people who can eat 10 pounds of bacon a day, drink four bottles of whiskey, smoke those cigarettes, never sleep, and snort cocaine and still look like young Brad Pitt no matter what I do. I might be that 1 in one billion. If I was that rare bird who didn't drop dead from clogged up lungs, I would consider that a "favorable current result" in my old age, but I would never say that starting a three packs a day habit in high school was a "right move" In fact, just playing the odds, looking at the metrics, I would be statistically more likely to have a higher quality of life if I didn't smoke at all. Just because I'm the anomaly who doesn't cough to death or sound like a 60's era robot from the hole in my throat doesn't mean I made the best play.
Second example, many girls, young ones, have problems at home and many are poor or are in very religious household and get married young. They run off with good old Bobby, while both are teenagers and the girl proceeds to pop out a few kids. Most of those marriages blow up in those people's faces, that's a statistical reality. The raw odds of that type of marriage surviving is very very slim. The future prospects of children from those marriages are much slimmer compared to children born in other situations. Now there are some people who marry at 17 or 18, have two kids young and work it out, are happy and find success, however they define that, that would be a "favorable current result" for that couple in their early 40s, but I would never call kids marrying that young and popping out children that young without first establishing an education, a career and their own maturity a "right move" for the best chance at success.
There's a reason why teams hire Moneyball type analysts and numbers crunchers and factor those metrics in how they search for players and how they retain and value them. Teams make the high percentage move because the odds of a miracle ( Jeremy Lin coming out of nowhere for almost no cost and making peanuts and Tyson Chandler, a big ticket free agent who has thus far worked out when so many big man contracts have blown up in team's faces over the years) are very low.
But will the result stay favorable for the long term? No one knows. Chandler could blow out a knee. Lin could get caught doing PEDS and regress badly. Melo could come home and his wife could "Steve McNair" him and blow him away with a hand cannon over any number of domestic bliss issues. I think people calling it a win now is just as bad as people calling it a total loss before Lin showed up. That being said, IMHO, it was still a "bad move" in general.
Let's look at the trade -
The Knicks got:
Carmelo Anthony
Chauncey Billups - Gone, had to buy him out and pay his option
Anthony Carter - Gone
Renaldo Balkman - Recently gone
Shelden Williams - Gone
Corey Brewer - Gone, I think he's on the Bulls now.
The Nuggets got:
Wilson Chandler - Someone the Knicks would have probably lost anyway
Danilo Gallinari - Legitimate NBA starter, good shooter, young, on a rookie contract
Raymond Felton
Timofey Mozgov - Centers always have value. Young ones especially.
Kosta Koufos - (from Minnesota)
Future 1st round draft selection - Given the new CBA, the value of young players on rookie contracts, if you can find a contributor, has increased
Two future 2nd-round draft selections (originally acquired from Golden State in Lee deal)
Right to exchange 2016 first-round draft selections - What will the Knicks look like the year when this draft happens?
Cash considerations to Denver
The Timberwolves got:
Eddy Curry - Captain Meatloaf, but at the time of the trade, an expiring contract and a big body.
Anthony Randolph - Young player D'Antoni kept mostly on the bench.
Cash considerations
Future 2nd round draft selection - I don't remember who surrenders this one, the Knicks or Nuggets.
I'm not saying the Knicks would have made slam dunk move after slam dunk move if they still had those assets and moved them some other way, I will say it would have given the Knicks options. Melo declared his desire for the Knicks openly. The Knicks had all the leverage and simply, IMHO, gave up the farm. Is Melo great? Sure, but could the Knicks have turned all those assets into something else plus Melo? Because Melo is the only thing that's left. And the Knicks paid cash in the trade but also to buy out Billups, that money doesn't disappear in a vacuum, does that impact money that could have gone to scouting? International scouting? Maybe another coach or certain trainers or technology that could help the players health? Maybe pay for another good young executive to groom? Even with the Knick's deep pockets, I don't think anyone can say it's just money. There's a tradeoff for the money you spend, all the time.
I love the Knicks, I love watching Jeremy Lin beat the odds, I enjoy watching Melo play. But IMHO, I can't kid myself, the Knicks were that 16 year old who got married young, ran from home, got knocked up, ended up a truck stop waitress and lucked out and blew the right trucker who just won the PowerBall. That's not good decision making in my book, because put on all the glitz, fancy clothes and big houses and fancy sportscars, and underneath is still the same ignorant truck stop waitress whose prospects were a trailer, screaming kids, wearing out her Winter's Bone dvd, hoping for tips that weren't coupons, and settling for some guy named Glider doing the Jackson Pollack on her face.
Sorry, I guess I'm just not enough of a homer to pretend that girl, even it's a girl I want to love, is the prom queen.
The smoker example is a good one. It's a bad gamble to smoke but like any bad gamble smoking may work out well for any specific individual. You might even go to the store one day just for cigarettes, decide last minute to also buy a lottery ticket, and win the lottery and live to be 100. The Melo trade was a bad gamble. No one said it was impossible for the team to play well at any point in the future if the trade was made. Best case scenario is that the Melo trade was a bad gamble that works out well.
That said, I didn't read your whole post, though, and loweycue may be right about your needing your meds!
