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The Myth That Postseason Basketball Is Different
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nehemiah
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2/25/2012  2:52 PM
crzymdups wrote:the funny thing about the moneyball teams is that the yankees, who granted had a ton more money than the A's, went into the post-season and swept them with small ball. it was all bunts, steals, baserunning and pitching.

i think you need the stats working for you, but conventional wisdom is that you don't win a championship without elite defense and elite big men. hard to find a team that didn't have one or the other - most have both.

the heat might win this year without an elite big man, but they're almost using the bulls old strategy of having the best two all around players in the league and a suffocating defense. getting the best two players in the league isn't exactly a formula most teams can follow though. that said, the heat still struggle with late game situations on offense and it could be their achilles heel in the playoffs again.

Yes, the Yankees won. But not because "small ball" is better. Billy Beane's system maximized the effectiveness of the A's only -- it doesn't do anything for the other team. The Yankees, with three times the higher salary total, could afford to not utilize the best tactics and still were better than the A's. Also, the numbers that favor the Moneyball system work best when the sample size is large (law of averages). Small sample sizes can give a different picture -- however, if given enough playoff games, the system has proven itself mathematically. That is why the Red Sox hired Bill James for his sabermetric advice, and how the MLB have adapted to this system. It is an evidence based system, not just speculative.

That is why I am not surprised that the only person who seemed to have predicted Jeremy Lin's success is a guy who is interested in "sabermetrics" type analysis for basketball. Ed Weiland, the FedEx truck driver, said "I've always had a mind for numbers, the statistical side of sports". http://articles.cnn.com/2012-02-20/us/us_predicting-jeremy-lin-fame_1_jeremy-lins-fedex-assessment?_s=PM:US

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nixluva
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2/25/2012  7:39 PM
nehemiah wrote:In the book Moneyball (yes the book, not the movie), there is a discussion of the myth that many major league managers and coaches and spectators have about the postseason. The myth is that in the postseason, "runs need to be manufactured". It comes from the belief that since games often are low scoring or very close, that you try to "manufacture" runs by more aggressively bunting, or stealing bases, etc. Sounds about right -- except it's not. Using advanced statistical analysis, it was determined that postseason baseball is the same as regular season baseball -- the best policy is to try to preserve your "outs". So that means no sacrifice bunts, no attempts at steals, and no attempt at "manufacturing runs".

There's been a lot of talk on these boards that in the postseason, that you have to have Iso plays, or that you can't do the pick and roll, or other notion without any actual analysis. It is these types of myths that mislead people to undervalue certain players or ways of playing, and knowing fact from fiction led General Manager Billy Beane to have huge success with the Oakland A's (being one of the top teams in baseball while having one of the lowest payrolls).

What wins games in the regular season will win games in the playoffs. Playing good defense, working hard, taking high percentage shots, and having some fortune go your way.

The NBA is obviously different from Baseball in that the individual talent can have much more of an effect on the games from game 1-7 of a series. The Baseball issue is that you have different pitching from game to game and it has a HUGE effect on the teams chances of winning a game. In the NBA the Magic, Bird, Jordan, Kobe, Shaq, Duncan, Dirk, Lebron or Wade can have a huge impact in every game of the postseason.

The NBA playoffs differ from the regular season in that you have the top 8 teams in the conference playing each other and there is time to prepare for a specific team as well as adjust over the course of 4-7 games. That never happens in the NBA regular season so by its very nature playoff basketball is different.

A weaker team is less likely to sneak up on a better team. Also styles have an impact. You might face a team with a weaker record but that plays a style that attacks your weaknesses. Of course exploiting weaknesses is what the game is all about, but in the playoffs the better teams have fewer weaknesses.

ramtour420
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Russian Federation
2/25/2012  9:10 PM
RonRon wrote:we are constantly adjusting and learning on the fly with new lineups, players, and rookies.
While we have gained a lot of depth now, we still have to find our "identity" that we are constantly changing.
With limited practice and this schedule, its really hard to learn and adapt, especially to develop chemistry.
We will have to figure out our lineups, 2nd units, which players work best together, while preserving enough energy to rotate efficiently.
This was why Dantoni constantly was playing our starters + 2nd unit players in the Atlanta game, instead of putting TD + Bibby in to preserving energy vs Miami.

Dantoni knows TC and Amare doesn't work well for each other with our 2nd unit players, that is why Amare is always the first to go.
He also knows Fields doesn't have the ability to play SG, with his lack of speed, quickness, and ability to hit the shot, unless the match ups are weak.
But he doesn't have the balls or fears he will break their confidence if he throws Amare and Fields out of the starting lineup, especially for Amare.
Our starting lineup, just doesn't work well together, but he fails to do anything about it.
He is very stubborn, even JJ, shouldn't be playing many minutes on certain days and with some lineups, but he does it anyway.
It is the same reason why Lin, didn't get the chance to play earlier.
Even though EVERY guard got plenty of chances to fail and fail again. the same reason why Darko never got off the dog house
With Jorts coming back, there will be even more tweaks, to adjust, as he fits better as a Center vs a PF, while TC is our best defensive player on the team.
Jorts just doesn't have the ability to play PF, without the ability to penetrate, blow past his man, if the PF defends his shot.
He probably helps Amare's game the most, with his ability to spread the floor, but they are quite weak as a combo, defensively at the PF/C.
He has half the season left to find out his rotations and develop the chemistry for the team.

I would like to slowly give a chance back to TD to find back his confidence, as we now have the players that can handle the ball, penetrate, and take the facilitating away from him.
Having another player that can hit the 3pointer, if he can find back his groove he had last year, would really help.
He is just not a PG and plays horrible defense, but he has the physical abilities to be a good defender.
The coaching staff needs to work back his confidence and fix his errors.

Lin
Iman
Melo
Novak
TC

BD
JR Smith/ TD
Fields/ Walker
Amare/ JJ
Jorts/ Jordan

I think Walker is a horrible defender, but he does have good size, and is one of our streaky shooters that has been hitting the 3pointer at a good % for much of the year.
We became quite deep but we have are in the process of finding/developing the right rotations and chemistry.
From each player individually, to players learning how to play with each other, and playing with differently lineups, will take time.
I guess this is a good problem to have, as we now have a improved our depth, but have a hard time finding minutes for everyone on the roster.

I think Fields and Amare's PT has to go down, on many nights, with the players we currently have, we have that luxury.
Amare doesn't have a stretch 4, to play small ball, like we did last year, while spreading the floor, and playing good defense with speed and athleticism.
He does have a Center that can stretch the floor with Jorts though, with JR Smith being a player that can help penetrate, and capable of creating his own shot/even for others.
Smith has grown tremendously as a person, he isn't the same kid that he was in his past years, I owe an apology to him, as I thought he would never change, from his cancer ways.
His talent was never a question, but he has matured as a player and a person, something he might have learned during his time in China.

I can always tell its your post because you put a line up somewhere about %70 into the wall of text.

Everything you have ever wanted is on the other side of fear- George Adair
ramtour420
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Russian Federation
2/25/2012  9:13 PM
Playoff basketball is different. Just as when you play one on one at the park, when the score is still o-0 the intensity is not the same as when the score is "point game" Game 7 in the playoffs is same as in regular season? Err, no its not. And neither is game one of seven, for that matter.
Everything you have ever wanted is on the other side of fear- George Adair
The Myth That Postseason Basketball Is Different

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