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weird stat article on Melo WSJ
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franco12
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1/13/2011  8:21 AM
knickstorrents wrote:http://arturogalletti.wordpress.com/2010/12/23/opponent-wp48-and-opponent-adjusted-wp48-for-2010/

Scroll 3/4 of the way down to the very last chart. It's a picture and not actual text because I don't think he wants people to cut and paste it (which I think is very lame).

A quick look at that chart, and I think our off season target should be Zach Randolph!

AUTOADVERT
SupremeCommander
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1/13/2011  8:36 AM
I'm glad I have the stat I need to prove that, yes, Kevin Durant does in fact suck donkey balls
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knickstorrents
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1/13/2011  8:52 AM
Between camby coming back from injury and andre miller being acquired that year, that would explain the win differential to me.
Rose is not the answer.
SupremeCommander
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1/13/2011  9:03 AM
can someone find/post Shareef Abdur Rahim's wins produced stat?
DLeethal wrote: Lol Rick needs a safe space
grillco
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1/13/2011  9:19 AM
TMS wrote:these stats tell a lot... it's incredible how the Nuggets ever managed to go from a 17 win team to a 54 win team w/Melo when he doesn't contribute to wins... crazy how the Nuggets are demanding so much back for a player that can't help teams win ballgames... i see Kevin Durant is on pace for only 11.6 win contribution for his team... i'm sure the Thunder are ready to deal him as we speak.

thanks to economics professor Berri... dunno what the NBA world would have done without this expert statistical analysis.

Yup, the rest of the Nuggets must be the all stars, since they're obviously the ones accounting for the other 50 or so wins the Nuggets seems to get each year.

grillco
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1/13/2011  9:24 AM
TMS wrote:
knickstorrents wrote:Wins Produced is based on statistical analysis and regression based on stats that lead to wins. So what they do is analyze teams that win (e.g., Lakers, Jordan's Bulls, Celtics, etc) then analyze the players on those teams, and what stats those players had. They also look at losing teams and determine what types of players are on those teams, and the stats those players have.

It is also weighted by position, so that each position has an inherent break even point in terms of rebounds, points, steals, to's, etc where if you are below those thresholds then you are a detriment to your team. The breakeven point is determined by the other players in those positions that year.

That's how they come up with this statistic. This is not the only statistic that shows Carmelo to be not that great a player, but its the statistic that makes it clearest the wins he provides to a team.

so let me get this straight... Carmelo doesn't help teams win many games, but somehow he was just fortunate enough to catch on with a 17 win franchise on the severe upswing to 43 wins that same year & to a high of 54 wins & playoffs for 7 consecutive seasons & just sorta rode the coattails of his superstar teammates? wow. if y'all just don't like Melo, that's your choice but enough w/the ridiculous crap like this to try & justify it to the rest of us.

btw, if you could provide the full list of NBA players of this statistic, i would love to see it, just for entertainment purposes.

Ima just keep quoting you're posts instead of basically restating the same opinion in my words...thanks.

grillco
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1/13/2011  9:42 AM
knickstorrents wrote:Between camby coming back from injury and andre miller being acquired that year, that would explain the win differential to me.

Not without Melo. Who was Miller getting the ball to? And who opened up the offense? Once you get the ball in Melo's hands it's time for a double team and that creates opportunities for the rest of the team, just like it does for the Knicks with Amare. And I love Marcus, but he's not a featured part of the offense and as good as he is defensively he isn't stopping teams by himself.

We all know it's a team game with five contributing the "most" on a nightly basis. Usually there's at least one standout among the starting five that is the real difference maker. Camby is gone, Miller is gone and Melo still keeps putting up his points and the Nuggets keep winning. He's been in a similar situation in Denver that Patrick was with the Knicks, he's the best player on a good team that hasn't given him any a-list support. I think they had understandably high hopes with getting Kenyon, but he's their new McDyess.

Statistics, from collection to interpretation, are easily manipulated. Even if applied across the to all players throughout the league, these stats don't tell the whole picture. Individual stats matter in sports like tennis, boxing, and golf where it's one person against another. Once you're talking team sports it's a group effort and everyone plays an important role, yet it's usually incredibly obvious how important the roles of some players are over those of other players. Melo changed the Nuggets from less than also rans to a real team in the west.

For all the crap he been getting, imagine him on the Pistons if Dumars had drafted correctly (using our 20/20 hindsight of course). I'm guessing multiple championships, maybe even a mini-dynasty...if Larry liked him.

crzymdups
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1/13/2011  9:47 AM
Melo would be a huge piece here.

I'm just not sure he'd be the best piece possible. You look at the Clippers who beat the Heat last night with Deandre Jordan and Blake Griffin playing major roles in stopping the Heat from getting inside for easy buckets. (Eric Gordon on offense, too, d'oh!).

Size wins in this league. Size will help stop the Heat, which we'll need to figure out how to do to progress.

Carmelo helps make things easier for Amar'e and helps this offense score in the playoffs and against better defenses like the Lakers, Magic, Bucks, teams with huge bigs.

But we need some bigs of our own. We can say we scored on Boston and it's true, but are we really going to overlook the fact that Kendrick Perkins was out? He'll be back soon.

I'm into adding Melo. But I'm also interested in adding a guy like Deandre Jordan or Nene.

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FistOfOakley
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1/13/2011  9:51 AM
denver is in the top 5 in offensive efficiency as well and while melo has his detractors....

on the offensive end it's hard to think that a lineup of billups, nene, afflalo, harrington and jr smith would be in the top 10.

grillco
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1/13/2011  10:01 AM
crzymdups wrote:I'm into adding Melo. But I'm also interested in adding a guy like Deandre Jordan or Nene.

I wanted Nene back when he was drafted. I was at Camden that day watching the Ynaks and O's and was excited when they drafted him. Then I found out they flipped it for McDyess and I wasn't too excited anymore. I wished McDyess well as a Knicks, but I was worried about durability, especially in the tougher defensive play of east and saw Nene as all upside and a great front court tandem with Marcus...and he was, only in Denver.

But that's why I started that thread about going after Dwight in the 2012 plan instead of CP. Imagine how Amare, Melo, Superman would CRUSH everyone. Felton running the point and even I could be the shooting guard. But I get you thought of solid high quality 5's without necessarily going all-team, future HOF, all-star.

grillco
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1/13/2011  10:02 AM
FistOfOakley wrote:denver is in the top 5 in offensive efficiency as well and while melo has his detractors....

on the offensive end it's hard to think that a lineup of billups, nene, afflalo, harrington and jr smith would be in the top 10.

That's only because it wouldn't be.

rvwink
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1/13/2011  10:08 AM
Melo's two primary shooting areas are A) driving to the basket and b) shooting from just inside the 3 point line. His average points shot attempt statistic is much lower than what Gallo produces, because Gallo is frequently shooting 3s instead of long twos. Can Melo change this statistic strongly in his favor by working on his 3 point shooting? Absolutely. Will help significantly change his rating next year when the number of 3s he shoots significantly increases? Absolutely.

The statistics are inaccurate. When Amare joined the Knicks, the fact that Wilson Chandler and Landry Fields played well, was partly the result of the defensive attention that Amare attracted. In the same way, the statistics posted on "games won" fail to take into account that someone like Melo is getting doubled more frequently, and that allows his team mates to become better scorers. if Melo comes here to win a championship, his passing and defense will also improve. Now his goal at Denver is to be an elite scorer because that affects how much he earns in his next contract and also winning a championship is not realistic in Denver presently. Once he makes a decision to come to NY to win a championship, I do think he will become much more of a team player.

If I am Donnie, would I bring Melo here? Yes if the deal wa
s right, I go with Amare. If he thinks Melo will improve the team's chances of winning a championship, who am I to argue.

AnubisADL
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1/13/2011  10:18 AM
TMS wrote:these stats tell a lot... it's incredible how the Nuggets ever managed to go from a 17 win team to a 54 win team w/Melo when he doesn't contribute to wins... crazy how the Nuggets are demanding so much back for a player that can't help teams win ballgames... i see Kevin Durant is on pace for only 11.6 win contribution for his team... i'm sure the Thunder are ready to deal him as we speak.

thanks to economics professor Berri... dunno what the NBA world would have done without this expert statistical analysis.

/thread

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crzymdups
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1/13/2011  10:45 AM
KBerg_CBS Ken Berger
Article says Melo only worth 6 wins/yr and not a franchise player. "That is stupid," GM told me. "I do not agree." http://on.wsj.com/hAlLX2
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jrodmc
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1/13/2011  10:57 AM
Yes of course, Melo is merely a figment of fan imagination. Must be the altitude out there. Or maybe it's just another Mormon conspiracy to keep attention away from the Jazz.

The Lugnuts only make the playoffs because of the superlative talents of people like Nene, Camby and maybe even the Birdman. Or possibly it's the scowling persona of JR Whiff. No wait, it's Chauncy! Chauncy is the key to the Nuggets resurgence, but wait, the NugNets were making the playoffs before they got Chauncy, right...??? Hmmmm, maybe it's George Carl! That's it, it's George Carl, he's what the Knicks need! Let's see, we've already had most of the rest of their roster, so that can't be what makes the Nuggets win...hmmmmmm...

No, it was AI!!!! That was the turning point! We need to get AI out of Turkey, or China, or Israel, or dayum!, where the heck is he now! I bet we won't even need to sign him to a max contract, either.

Get somebody to plug AI into that stupid algorithum... bet he adds 20-30 wins easy....

SupremeCommander
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1/13/2011  10:59 AM
SupremeCommander wrote:can someone find/post Shareef Abdur Rahim's wins produced stat?

if someone could at least tell me where to look for SAR's win produced career figures, it'll destroy the merit of this stat. I can feel it. SAR always got those 20 point-10 rebound team and his team always lost. He'd fill up a box score and his team would win 25 games. I'm pretty sure he's going to have an excellent win produced number

DLeethal wrote: Lol Rick needs a safe space
jrodmc
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1/13/2011  11:02 AM
SupremeCommander wrote:
SupremeCommander wrote:can someone find/post Shareef Abdur Rahim's wins produced stat?

if someone could at least tell me where to look for SAR's win produced career figures, it'll destroy the merit of this stat. I can feel it. SAR always got those 20 point-10 rebound team and his team always lost. He'd fill up a box score and his team would win 25 games. I'm pretty sure he's going to have an excellent win produced number

See David Lee

grillco
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1/13/2011  11:07 AM
jrodmc wrote:
SupremeCommander wrote:
SupremeCommander wrote:can someone find/post Shareef Abdur Rahim's wins produced stat?

if someone could at least tell me where to look for SAR's win produced career figures, it'll destroy the merit of this stat. I can feel it. SAR always got those 20 point-10 rebound team and his team always lost. He'd fill up a box score and his team would win 25 games. I'm pretty sure he's going to have an excellent win produced number

See David Lee

Y 4 2 h8?

Killa4luv
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1/13/2011  11:23 AM
sometimes u guys dissappoint me so much. So is this why we shouldn't get Melo? Cuz some nerd found an algorithm that says sigh. Sigh.
The same guys who loved David Lee's hollow numbers and thought he could give you 90% of what Amare would. smh
martin
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1/13/2011  11:28 AM
knickstorrents wrote:Wins Produced is based on statistical analysis and regression based on stats that lead to wins. So what they do is analyze teams that win (e.g., Lakers, Jordan's Bulls, Celtics, etc) then analyze the players on those teams, and what stats those players had. They also look at losing teams and determine what types of players are on those teams, and the stats those players have.

It is also weighted by position, so that each position has an inherent break even point in terms of rebounds, points, steals, to's, etc where if you are below those thresholds then you are a detriment to your team. The breakeven point is determined by the other players in those positions that year.

That's how they come up with this statistic. This is not the only statistic that shows Carmelo to be not that great a player, but its the statistic that makes it clearest the wins he provides to a team.

OK thanks for the explanation.

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weird stat article on Melo WSJ

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