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Shot Arithmatic
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fishmike
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12/7/2010  2:42 PM
rvwink wrote:"because those #s dont really describe what happens in a game. They might describe what happens in a season, or in 30 games but not one."

I wasn't claiming that one game's shot percentages were accurate for the whole season. I was simply curious myself as to how many shots were available after our two top players took what they needed. Then if one assumes that Carmelo may take 10 shots a game more than Chandler or Gallinari, it becomes clear that the remaining two starters and the players coming off the bench would have live with significantly fewer shot attempts. My view is that there are substantial benefits for all 5 of your starters to be a viable threat to either score from the outside or in the paint, and also to focus on playing defense. Its hard to achieve that goal, but I believe it is within reach for the Knicks.

I actually agree with exactly this. Ive gone so far as to post Chandler/Gallo's game logs side by side. What you see is that together they are very productive, even more so you see that when one is NOT the other is VERY. I think it shows that depth can win over one star + a crappy player. Maybe Gallo/Fields/Chandler is greater than Melo + fodder.
"winning is more fun... then fun is fun" -Thibs
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rvwink
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12/7/2010  2:46 PM
"I think what melo does that Wilson cannot is create that shot at crunch time."

I think the whole point of D'Antoni's system is that if you space the floor properly with 5 viable scorers, then intelligent, unselfish passing will almost always find your team an open shot. So while Chandler may not be able to free himself for a shot by himself, quick passing between Chandler, Gallinari, Fields, Felton, and Amare will likely get the job done.

On another front, as good as Turiaf is both in playing defense, and in passing on offense, his lack of an outside shot, encourages defenders to double Amare. Insert Chandler instead of Turiaf, and the double teaming declines, which I think helps explain why Amare has 5 plus 30 point games in a row going on.

fishmike
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12/7/2010  2:47 PM
rvwink wrote:"I think what melo does that Wilson cannot is create that shot at crunch time."

I think the whole point of D'Antoni's system is that if you space the floor properly with 5 viable scorers, then intelligent, unselfish passing will almost always find your team an open shot. So while Chandler may not be able to free himself for a shot by himself, quick passing between Chandler, Gallinari, Fields, Felton, and Amare will likely get the job done.

On another front, as good as Turiaf is both in playing defense, and in passing on offense, his lack of an outside shot, encourages defenders to double Amare. Insert Chandler instead of Turiaf, and the double teaming declines, which I think helps explain why Amare has 5 plus 30 point games in a row going on.


you can defend that. Hell... we got beat by the zone a couple times with that offense.
"winning is more fun... then fun is fun" -Thibs
Bippity10
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12/7/2010  2:59 PM
rvwink wrote:

On another front, as good as Turiaf is both in playing defense, and in passing on offense, his lack of an outside shot, encourages defenders to double Amare. Insert Chandler instead of Turiaf, and the double teaming declines, which I think helps explain why Amare has 5 plus 30 point games in a row going on.

I think there is something to that. Here are the numbers(I excluded the first 11 games)

Starting next to Turiaf:
25.5 points, 56.7%, 9rebounds, 2.1 assists

Starting next to Chandler
34.0 points, 64.9%, 11 rebounds, 2.8 assists.

I think you may be on to something. I'd be curious to know what the team defense looks like with those two line-ups. I know that Chandler seems to have a positive effect on Stoudemire, he has a similar effect on Toney Douglas on the 2nd unit. That's a good sign that he is making teammates better.

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Bippity10
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12/7/2010  3:03 PM
Bippity10 wrote:
rvwink wrote:

On another front, as good as Turiaf is both in playing defense, and in passing on offense, his lack of an outside shot, encourages defenders to double Amare. Insert Chandler instead of Turiaf, and the double teaming declines, which I think helps explain why Amare has 5 plus 30 point games in a row going on.

I think there is something to that. Here are the numbers(I excluded the first 11 games)

Starting next to Turiaf:
25.5 points, 56.7%, 9rebounds, 2.1 assists

Starting next to Chandler
34.0 points, 64.9%, 11 rebounds, 2.8 assists.

I think you may be on to something. I'd be curious to know what the team defense looks like with those two line-ups. I know that Chandler seems to have a positive effect on Stoudemire, he has a similar effect on Toney Douglas on the 2nd unit. That's a good sign that he is making teammates better.

Upon further review. In games where Turiaf has played more then 30 minutes

24.5 pointes, 59%, 9.0 rebounds, 2.5 assists. Right on his season averages.

I just hope that people will like me
fishmike
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12/7/2010  3:05 PM
scoshin wrote:Butler/Odom, sure, but Grant actually had negative value for the Heat since he was such a large non-expiring contract. It's as if Eddy Curry had 2-3 years left instead of one...we'd have to give up more to get Denver to swallow his contract if that were the case.
KG was traded for: Al Jefferson, Ryan Gomes and Gerald Green, guard Sebastian Telfair and center Theo Ratliff + 2 first rounders and cash.
Gasol: Kwame Brown, guard Javaris Crittenton, guard Aaron McKie (who the Lakers signed earlier today), the draft rights to Marc Gasol and first round picks in 2008 and 2010.

We all know Lakers fleeced Memphis but Gasol (Marc) + 2 first rounders is still a package. Since we arent giving up first rounders (both KG and Gasol were trade for TWO) isnt it safe to assume we would be adding Fields + to a starter? Seems like 3 rotation guys or a starter and 2 picks is going price. Would we be trading a player as good as Al Jefferson for Melo?

I would think Denver could get more than Curry + a Knick rotation player (Fields, Gallo, Chandler) from a team willing to take a shot with no guarentee to sign him.

"winning is more fun... then fun is fun" -Thibs
umynot
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12/7/2010  3:14 PM
BRIGGS wrote:
Moonangie wrote:
fishmike wrote:...Melo is a star, and many simply beleive that stars = playoff wins so you do whatever it takes. I thought Detroit proved you could do it with quality, size and depth, which considering our youth is what I favor right now.

Word to the wise Monger Mike. You always keep it real, which I appreciate. And your logic is quite compelling. With our current 10 of 11 streak, incl. numerous road wins and victories in close games, there is MUCH evidence that the cost of adding Melo via a trade Denver would like is not going to be a net benefit for the Knicks. You don't break up a team that is pwning the league.

Let's see how we do against elite teams before we take away any of our core. Melo will be available at the deadline as well as next summer, b/c he can see that the Knicks are a bonafide playoff CONTENDER, not just an 8th seed.

I dont view this club as an 8 t seed candidate anymore. Once you have an MVP player with the nice pieces around it--you move up top a top 3-6 position(and I firmly believe that we would be 17-5 using this lineup all year--but it is what it is) We have needs but Carmelo is not one of them. The honest to goodness truth is Wilson Chandler can score 20 points 70 out of 80 games given 38 minutes imho and Gallo should hit 40 of them for 20 --so the scoring part--the way it is designed--I dont think you want to mess with it. Id rather spend much less money on Chandler and see if I can find an elite big man and a back up combo/PG who can shoot with size. I think with Williams Gallo Fields and Chandler--the wings are set.

Perfectly said Briggs.....

Add Mayo or Rubio and a Big who could spell Amare and Turiaf and we would be in the mix with
the elite....

KNICKS on the way UP!!!
fishmike
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12/7/2010  3:23 PM
umynot wrote:
BRIGGS wrote:
Moonangie wrote:
fishmike wrote:...Melo is a star, and many simply beleive that stars = playoff wins so you do whatever it takes. I thought Detroit proved you could do it with quality, size and depth, which considering our youth is what I favor right now.

Word to the wise Monger Mike. You always keep it real, which I appreciate. And your logic is quite compelling. With our current 10 of 11 streak, incl. numerous road wins and victories in close games, there is MUCH evidence that the cost of adding Melo via a trade Denver would like is not going to be a net benefit for the Knicks. You don't break up a team that is pwning the league.

Let's see how we do against elite teams before we take away any of our core. Melo will be available at the deadline as well as next summer, b/c he can see that the Knicks are a bonafide playoff CONTENDER, not just an 8th seed.

I dont view this club as an 8 t seed candidate anymore. Once you have an MVP player with the nice pieces around it--you move up top a top 3-6 position(and I firmly believe that we would be 17-5 using this lineup all year--but it is what it is) We have needs but Carmelo is not one of them. The honest to goodness truth is Wilson Chandler can score 20 points 70 out of 80 games given 38 minutes imho and Gallo should hit 40 of them for 20 --so the scoring part--the way it is designed--I dont think you want to mess with it. Id rather spend much less money on Chandler and see if I can find an elite big man and a back up combo/PG who can shoot with size. I think with Williams Gallo Fields and Chandler--the wings are set.

Perfectly said Briggs.....

Add Mayo or Rubio and a Big who could spell Amare and Turiaf and we would be in the mix with
the elite....


saying we have an MVP with pieces is premature isnt it? I mean I love this team as much as the next guy but I'm not assuming we are ready to contend with the top teams. I think we can be a 2nd tier, 4-6 seed. We could even win a first round, but I'm not treating this team as a tinker away from being elite w/ Boston and Orlando (hell the Hawks, Heat and Bulls) UNTIL I see us lose in game 6 or 7.

I love this group. I think Briggs is the only one that predicted a higher win total than I did (45+). But I'm trying to be realistic and understand we have young undeveloped pieces.

Amare has been awsome but also has his own set of failure in the playoffs, and has had issues against elite players and teams.

Just cause he's OUR MVP doesnt make him THE mvp.

Just enjoy this ride until Feb and we will see what the choices are

"winning is more fun... then fun is fun" -Thibs
rvwink
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12/7/2010  3:24 PM
It seems to me to be inaccurate to look for trades without taking into account the leverage that a team has in a transaction. In the Lakers Memphis trade, and in Celtics Wolves trade, the teams doing the trade had e leverage to say yeah or nah. In this trade, a lot of us feel that Melo wants specifically to come to the Knicks, and that if Denver isn't reasonable, then they may end up with nothing.

Also please bear in mind one other thing. Carmelo is coming to the Knicks not primarily for dollars but for an opportunity to win a championship. Frankly, Melo is probably very excited presently that if the Knicks can play this well without him, that he can probably take them to the championship he needs. So I doubt he will personally want to empower Denver to take a lot of the Knicks valuable pieces because that would lessen his chances of winning. (As an example, I do think that David Lee was fine with giving the Knicks the necessary leverage to make a excellent deal with the Warriors.)

JohnWallace44
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12/7/2010  3:29 PM
.438 scoring efficiency from a wing that takes the volume of shots that he does is pretty good

Don't you have to take the amount of shots into account?

Alan Hahn: Nate Robinson has been on a ridonkulous scoring tear lately (remember when he couldn't hit Jerome James with a Big Mac in early January?)
rvwink
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12/7/2010  3:34 PM
"Upon further review. In games where Turiaf has played more then 30 minutes"

Could you explain that statistic a bit more? My view is that when Amare is playing center along with 4 players who can space the floor well, then he should be able to score more points. In all but the last 5 games, hasn't Amare mainly been a power forward, with either Turiaf or Mosgov playing alongside?

Bippity10
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12/7/2010  3:43 PM    LAST EDITED: 12/7/2010  3:44 PM
rvwink wrote:"Upon further review. In games where Turiaf has played more then 30 minutes"

Could you explain that statistic a bit more?

I went to the game log. Found the games where Turiaf has played 30 minutes or more and then found Amare's statistics. What's confusing about this? This was in response to when you said:

"On another front, as good as Turiaf is both in playing defense, and in passing on offense, his lack of an outside shot, encourages defenders to double Amare. Insert Chandler instead of Turiaf, and the double teaming declines, which I think helps explain why Amare has 5 plus 30 point games in a row going on."

So I looked into this and.........In the games where Turiaf has gotten significant minutes, Amares numbers appear not to have gone down and are right in line with his season averages.

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rvwink
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12/7/2010  4:05 PM
".438 scoring efficiency from a wing that takes the volume of shots that he does is pretty good

Don't you have to take the amount of shots into account?"

That's a really interesting subject. 90% of Carmelo's points are from 2 point range and 10% from 3 point range. Chandler, Gallinari and Fields are respectively scoring 18%, 48%, and 26% of their points from 3 point range. For example, if Gallo and Carmelo both take 10 shots, the likelihood is that Carmelo would score 10 or 11 points for his team, and Gallo would score 14 or 15 points for his team. That number includes foul shots as well.

Here are my numbers on the four of them.

Carmelo 1.05 points per attempt. Chandler 1.10. (He was hurt because he wasn't fouled as much.) Gallinari 1.46. (He drew twice as many fouls as Chandler and shot a very high percentage of 3 point shots). Fields 1.29. (He is scoring on over half of his shooting attempts.)

Yes, you are right that it takes more skill to shoot a higher volume of shots, but because he shoots 90% 2s Carmelo's team benefits less from his shots than they would from either Gallo, Chandler and Field's shots.

scoshin
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12/7/2010  4:16 PM
fishmike wrote:
scoshin wrote:Butler/Odom, sure, but Grant actually had negative value for the Heat since he was such a large non-expiring contract. It's as if Eddy Curry had 2-3 years left instead of one...we'd have to give up more to get Denver to swallow his contract if that were the case.
KG was traded for: Al Jefferson, Ryan Gomes and Gerald Green, guard Sebastian Telfair and center Theo Ratliff + 2 first rounders and cash.
Gasol: Kwame Brown, guard Javaris Crittenton, guard Aaron McKie (who the Lakers signed earlier today), the draft rights to Marc Gasol and first round picks in 2008 and 2010.

We all know Lakers fleeced Memphis but Gasol (Marc) + 2 first rounders is still a package. Since we arent giving up first rounders (both KG and Gasol were trade for TWO) isnt it safe to assume we would be adding Fields + to a starter? Seems like 3 rotation guys or a starter and 2 picks is going price. Would we be trading a player as good as Al Jefferson for Melo?

I would think Denver could get more than Curry + a Knick rotation player (Fields, Gallo, Chandler) from a team willing to take a shot with no guarentee to sign him.

Al Jefferson was really the only prize of that KG trade. I think Minny got back one of their 1st rounders from a previous trade with Boston, so that too was coveted. Outside of that, the throw-ins of Gerald Green, Gomes, and Telfair are just as comparable to the potential of AR, and the value of TD + Mozgov. Or even 'Buike if he comes back from injury.

Gasol trade was pretty awful for Memphis with the exception of Marc Gasol's draft rights. Carter was traded for scrubs + draft picks.

I dunno, maybe I'm just overvaluing AR's current trade value. I don't believe he's completely killed it because of the DNP's, and teams will still see him as an asset with loads of potential. So from my perspective, giving up Curry + a Knicks starter (Fields, Gallo, Chandler) + AR + other rotation players like TD and/or Mozgov is a solid package. If Denver is seriously asking for all three of Fields, Gallo, Chandler, then I don't think even Isiah Thomas pulls the trigger on that. It's more value than a lot of past superstar trades, and Denver doesn't even have that leverage to demand so much.

knicks1248
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12/7/2010  4:41 PM
scoshin wrote:
fishmike wrote:
scoshin wrote:Butler/Odom, sure, but Grant actually had negative value for the Heat since he was such a large non-expiring contract. It's as if Eddy Curry had 2-3 years left instead of one...we'd have to give up more to get Denver to swallow his contract if that were the case.
KG was traded for: Al Jefferson, Ryan Gomes and Gerald Green, guard Sebastian Telfair and center Theo Ratliff + 2 first rounders and cash.
Gasol: Kwame Brown, guard Javaris Crittenton, guard Aaron McKie (who the Lakers signed earlier today), the draft rights to Marc Gasol and first round picks in 2008 and 2010.

We all know Lakers fleeced Memphis but Gasol (Marc) + 2 first rounders is still a package. Since we arent giving up first rounders (both KG and Gasol were trade for TWO) isnt it safe to assume we would be adding Fields + to a starter? Seems like 3 rotation guys or a starter and 2 picks is going price. Would we be trading a player as good as Al Jefferson for Melo?

I would think Denver could get more than Curry + a Knick rotation player (Fields, Gallo, Chandler) from a team willing to take a shot with no guarentee to sign him.

Al Jefferson was really the only prize of that KG trade. I think Minny got back one of their 1st rounders from a previous trade with Boston, so that too was coveted. Outside of that, the throw-ins of Gerald Green, Gomes, and Telfair are just as comparable to the potential of AR, and the value of TD + Mozgov. Or even 'Buike if he comes back from injury.

Gasol trade was pretty awful for Memphis with the exception of Marc Gasol's draft rights. Carter was traded for scrubs + draft picks.

I dunno, maybe I'm just overvaluing AR's current trade value. I don't believe he's completely killed it because of the DNP's, and teams will still see him as an asset with loads of potential. So from my perspective, giving up Curry + a Knicks starter (Fields, Gallo, Chandler) + AR + other rotation players like TD and/or Mozgov is a solid package. If Denver is seriously asking for all three of Fields, Gallo, Chandler, then I don't think even Isiah Thomas pulls the trigger on that. It's more value than a lot of past superstar trades, and Denver doesn't even have that leverage to demand so much.

the big difference from all those lopsided trades, were the fact that they all incuded draft pick, 1st rndrs..something denver is hell bent on getting, they'll just wait and see who falls further from contention, and push the button

ES
rvwink
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12/7/2010  4:48 PM
"What's confusing about this?"

I thought when he started at Center with Chandler at power forward that freed Amare up him more, because all 4 of his team mates were dangerous scorers that shouldn't be left open.

I didn't initially see what the connection was of your 30 minutes of Turiaf. But I understand it now. Sorry that I was confused.

Thanks.

nixluva
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12/7/2010  9:01 PM
rvwink wrote:Carmelo 1.05 points per attempt. Chandler 1.10. (He was hurt because he wasn't fouled as much.) Gallinari 1.46. (He drew twice as many fouls as Chandler and shot a very high percentage of 3 point shots). Fields 1.29. (He is scoring on over half of his shooting attempts.)

Yes, you are right that it takes more skill to shoot a higher volume of shots, but because he shoots 90% 2s Carmelo's team benefits less from his shots than they would from either Gallo, Chandler and Field's shots.

That is a serious way of looking at real production a player has. I don't know how Melo would work here. How the change in dynamics with Felton & Amar'e would work adding him into the mix. The closest we've seen of Multiple Superstars playing Mike's system is the Olympic team. I suppose it could work, but The NBA is a different animal. IMO I think we could make other moves that would push this team into the Elite tier of the League. The Melo deal is one idea, just not the only way of getting it done. I saw how close the Suns were in terms of competing against the Lakers superteam and it gives me hope for what we're doing here.

I think our team can be better than PHX was last year. I think we have a tougher roster that has more defensive components. They have just a bit more offensive punch, but we have a good deal more defensive power. I want to see how much we can improve at C and especially backup PG. If we can find a solution to the PG spot that may just push us up a great deal. That drop off in performance is a problem when we go against the better teams.

We can throw enough bodies at the bigger teams IMO. We've got fouls on the bench with Timo and AR. In time i'm sure we'll have developed those two to the point where they can help us much more than at present.

rvwink
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12/7/2010  10:27 PM
After I did that analysis, I actually thought Gallinari was more valuable to the Knicks than Chandler Gallo shoots .373 from the 3 point line, and .398 overall. The remarkably small drop off for shooting 3 points instead of 2, plus the relatively large number of fouls he gets, plus 4.5 rebounds, and 1.7 assists seem a very nice combination to me. I also think he works hard on defense. This year he is close to producing 1.5 points for every shooting attempt. That will be almost 50% higher per shot yield than what Melo provides Denver this year.

Do you still like Chandler better than Gallo and why?

Shot Arithmatic

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