And in response to what you just asked me.
There's no way you can really "prove" whether Melo is worth a package of XYZ players unless you let the trade happen. Let X years pass. Then take a time machine and undo the trade and then see what happens.
But if we're going to debate whether it's a smart move for the Knicks, it would make sense to try to get a good idea of what Melo is really worth. To really examine him as much as we can.
You probably watched Melo in the NCAA Tourney.
Melo has played 514 regular season games total in 7 seasons since he entered the league.
2003 - Denver didn't make the playoffs.
2004 - 1st round:Lost to Minnesota 4-1. 5 games for Melo.
2005 - 1st round:Lost to San Antonio 4-1. 5 games for Melo.
2006 - 1st round:Lost to LA Clippers 4-1. 5 games for Melo.
2007 - 1st round:Lost to San Antonio 4-1. 5 games for Melo.
2008 - 1st round:Swept by Lakers 4-0. 4 games for Melo
2009 - 1st round:Beat New Orleans 4-1.
2nd round: Beat Dallas 4-1
WCF: Lost to LA Lakers 4- 2
16 games for Melo
2010 - 1st round: Lost to Utah 4-2 6 games for Melo
So in his NBA Career total. Melo has played 514 regular season games + 46 Playoff games = 560 games
How many of those did YOU, TMS watch?
I'll make a giant leap of faith and assume you watched every single minute of every playoff game he was in, including the last game of sweeps and near sweeps in the 1st round.
That's 46 playoff games.
Out of 7 regular seasons, let's assume you watched TEN Denver games in their entirety. Again, please correct me if I underestimated that number.
That's 70 regular season games.
70 + 46 = 116 out of 560 games. That's 21% of his games. Meaning you haven't seen him play 79% of his NBA games.
AGAIN PLEASE LET US KNOW IF I'M UNDERESTIMATING.
Tom Haberstroh writes about and studies sports for a living. I would think it's not crazy to think he has either watched as many full Melo games as you or more.
Now this guy is using numbers compiled over Melo's entire frikkin NBA career, in addition to what he sees with his eyes to measure his value. He's comparing those career numbers to Melo's fellow "superstar" peers D-Wade, Lebron and others in the league by doing things like comparing how many points Melo generates per 100 posessions vs. the league average.
But you dismiss the opinions of him and others like John Hollinger as "a buncha guys with pens & calculators in their shirt pockets." I actually linked you to some articles written by people who did their HW and you point blank said you didn't even bother reading it.
Because hey...watching a small fraction of the games he's played is an infallible evaluation system, right?
I'm pretty sure Hollinger and Haberstroh watch a fair amount of games. They have an advantage because they can do so while at work. They've also taken an exhaustive look a the numbers too. Have you?
Look man, I don't know whether Melo > AR/Gallo/Draft Picks/Opportunity cost of him getting paid vs anyone else during the life of his contract with the Knicks.
These stat guys you so despise have compared him to Dominique Frikkin Wilkins. They've said
"quick first step and variety of creative deliveries"
"Physical, high-scoring forward who likes to mix it up on the blocks."
"Good rebounder"
"among the top free throw drawers at his position"
"His exceptional skill on offense is his ability to get his shot off, whether it's attacking the rim or through a patented pull-up jumper on the perimeter."
"Is that package worth the max salary? Probably"
"quality defender when committed"
They obviously recognize that dude can ball. They also have a ton of other things they've observed about him and to me it seems crazy to stick your head in the sand and not even LOOK at what people have to say about a player who could change the Knicks entire fate for the next 5-6 years.
There are some people who have used advanced stats to say Melo is not worth trading for. I don't know if I agree with that but again..
Try reading what they're reading. Then maybe craft a response instead of not even looking at this stuff below and dismissing what they have to say.
Again I have no idea if you'll bother reading this but here it is again:
1. Hollinger in his 2010-11 preview of the Nuggets:
Projection: 28.0 pts, 7.0 reb, 3.5 ast per 40 min; 20.40 PER | Player card
• Physical, high-scoring forward who likes to mix it up on the blocks.
• Middling shooter, but has quick first step and variety of creative deliveries.
• Has improved defensive effort but still average at best. Good rebounder.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Last season, Anthony showed up in much better shape, having shed some of the baby fat he carried in previous seasons, and for the first two months, he was an MVP candidate. However, he wore down as the season progressed, missing 16 games with injuries and seeing his free throw rate dive after the All-Star break.
That last datum requires more elaboration. On March 1, Anthony had placed among the top free throw drawers at his position, earning .462 free throw attempts per field goal attempt -- not far off the pace of other high-scoring forwards like LeBron James (.506), Kevin Durant (.504) and Dwyane Wade (.465).
From March 1 onward, his rate inexplicably fell to .304. His inside shots decreased slightly (from 35.7 percent of attempts to 32.2 percent), but there's no way such a small shift in shot selection could trigger such a huge variation in free throw rate.
Whatever the reason, we can't place him in the same orbit with the league's other elite player candidates unless he's getting at least half as many free throw attempts as field goal attempts. Otherwise, his propensity for turnovers (59th among power forwards in Pure Point Rating) and less-than-stellar defense keep him out of the discussion.
================================================================================
2. Haberstroh on Melo:
Carmelo Anthony has averaged 20 points per game every season since he arrived in the NBA. This past campaign, he became the third-youngest player ever to reach the 10,000-point plateau, behind only Kobe Bryant and LeBron James. And next summer, he could hit the open market as an unrestricted free agent.
But despite all those gaudy point totals, the three-time All-Star may not even be worth the max deal a team would likely give him in 2011.
At first glance, Anthony seems like a member of the NBA's elite, largely due to his scoring prowess. But a deeper look at the points column and elsewhere in his game reveals a player who lives on an undeserved reputation more than his actual impact on wins.
It's tough to argue with his 28.2 points-per-game average in '09-10, but in the game of basketball, how a shooter gets his points is more meaningful than the raw number itself. To see that, we need to peel back the layers.
Let's first talk about Anthony's shot volume. It's not exactly a secret that 'Melo likes to shoot the rock, but his propensity to launch shots may raise some eyebrows. This past season, no player in the NBA took more shots per minute than Anthony -- not Kobe, not LeBron, not even scoring champ Kevin Durant.
It may seem obvious that a player worthy of 20 shots per game would have a healthy conversion rate. But in Anthony's case, that's far from the truth. Anthony, in reality, had a below-average field goal percentage (.458) this past season -- and his career percentage (.459) is no different. (The league average is .463.)
The sharp readers out there will point out that traditional field goal percentage doesn't reflect Anthony's shooting ability, since he launches a healthy dose of 3-pointers, which obviously count more on the scoreboard. That's true. But if you've been paying attention, you know Anthony is not a good shooter from beyond the arc, so that doesn't help his case. As a career .308 percent 3-point shooter, his shot from downtown ranks far below the norm (the average small forward shot .349 last season; Melo shot .316) and any progress he seemingly made in 2008-09, when he shot a career-high .371, disappeared. Even if we incorporate the added point bonus of a 3-pointer, the Syracuse product's shooting percentages are, at best, average.
It seems that, anyway we slice it, Anthony is a gunner at the core. His exceptional skill on offense is his ability to get his shot off, whether it's attacking the rim or through a patented pull-up jumper on the perimeter. But interestingly enough, Anthony got his shot blocked a whopping 109 times last season, which ranks as the second-highest total in the league, according to Hoopdata.com. Evidently, he doesn't lack perseverance.
Anthony's case illustrates a fundamental problem in conventional basketball analysis: scoring averages don't reflect efficiency. It's true that Anthony scored 28.2 points per game last season, but it's also true that no player missed more shots as often as Anthony did. Feel free to credit his skill but also pay attention his lofty shot volume and playing time.
And that's before we consider the disguise of team pace. Since Anthony entered the league, the Denver Nuggets have averaged 95.9 possessions per game, which places them as the third -fastest squad in the NBA over that period of time (and just a fraction behind the high-octane Phoenix Suns). Over that same span, the Nuggets have squeezed out an extra four possessions per game when compared to the average NBA team. Do the math, and the Nuggets have enjoyed nearly 2,000 extra possessions above the norm since Anthony joined the NBA. That's a ton of extra opportunities that can pad the per-game stats used as measuring sticks.
So after stripping out the inflationary effect of fast pace and boiling down Anthony's numbers to a per possession level, his scoring punch looks even more pedestrian. How pedestrian? Anthony's career offensive rating, an efficiency measure that calculates how many points a player produces per 100 possessions he uses, checks out at 107, which sits right at the league average. For reference, 2003 draft-mates James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh have earned 114, 111, and 113 lifetime offensive ratings, respectively.
Before we prematurely call Anthony an average player, there is something to be said for the burden of trust. Not every player can still perform while shouldering the heavy scoring responsibility that Anthony has endured. But the Nuggets have probably allowed Anthony to shoot far too often if efficiency -- and winning -- is their goal. In fact, last season Melo was only sixth on his own team in ORtg (110), trailing far behind other legit weapons like Nene (124), Chauncey Billups (120) and Ty Lawson (118).
Aside from scoring, Anthony doesn't have many other bankable weapons as a player. His rebounding (career 6.2 rpg) is only slightly better than what we'd expect from a small forward, and he doesn't create opportunities for his teammates like Paul Pierce, Wade and James can. Furthermore, he hasn't shown the intensity and dedication on the defensive end that you'd want from a max player.
In the end, Anthony's game demonstrates why it's important to strip away the biases that color our perceptions of elite players. In Anthony's case, the excessive shot volume, his team's stat-padding tempo and the lack of a true 3-point game makes his 28.2 ppg seem far less impressive than his sparkling reputation would suggest.
If anything, it's time we moved on from per-game statistics to evaluate our players. Millions of dollars are wasted every year basing player value on the archaic statistics that teams used half a century ago. And someone will surely overpay Anthony and offer him a max contract -- just look at the deals Joe Johnson and Rudy Gay got.
If the New York Knicks, rumored to be the favorites to land Melo if he decides to leave Denver, are expecting salvation from Anthony next summer, they're going to be very disappointed with their investment. It would be a much a wiser move to throw that cash toward the pursuit of Chris Paul, a real max player.
Tom Haberstroh is a frequent contributor to ESPN Insider
========================================
3. Basketball Prospectus on Melo:
Carmelo Anthony
Now in his prime, Melo has established a fairly steady level of performance. He can be counted on to use somewhere just over 30% of the Nuggets' plays with an efficiency right around the league average. He's an average to slightly above average rebounder and a quality defender when committed. Is that package worth the max salary? Probably, and there's no question that's what CA is going to command next season, whether in Denver or somewhere else. At the same time, grouping him in with Lebron James and Dwayne Wade, his peers from the 2003 draft class, flatters Anthony. This isn't solely a statistical perspective; last year was the first time Anthony made All-NBA Second Team. He's a second tier star.
The big upgrade Anthony made to his game last season was cutting down on his miscues, posting his lowest turnover percentage since 2005-06. That translated into career highs in both win% and WARP. Anthony's numbers might have looked even better if not for the decline in trips to the FT line under Adrian Dantley. Those free throws are a crucial part of CA's offensive game, which can use the high eprcentage scores generated by his isolations on the wing.
Most similar to: Dominique Wilkins 998.2), Xavier McDaniel, Glenn Robinson, Corey Maggette.
======================
4. Bill Simmons on Melo:
"Love the Rose-Noah-Boozer trio. All three play hard and complement each other. Actually, that's the biggest reason I didn't want Chicago to make a run at Carmelo. On paper, yeah … Carmelo is a better player than Noah. But why break up the Boozer-Noah combo just to get a crunch-time scorer when you already have a creator in Rose?.... And by the way, when does Carmelo's NBA résumé of inspiring playoff flameouts start to override his Syracuse title during a horrible college basketball year? Aren't we there? Or close? I like that the Bulls stood pat. Smart move."
Let's try to elevate the level of discourse in this byeetch. Please
10/25/2010 8:45 PM LAST EDITED: 10/25/2010 9:38 PM