The reason I ask is if we can get a 3rd team willing to take on Okafor if we sweeten the pot with Gallo, we can then sell the rest of our farm (AR, Chandler, Douglas...whatever NOH wants) for Chris Paul. Felton would have to be part of the deal as well to open up cap space in 2011, and NOH would need a replacement point guard anyway since they traded away Collison.

Simply put, if we can find a 3rd team to take on Okafor, and sell the farm for Chris Paul...we'd still have room for Melo in 2011, forming our big 3. And you damn well know that Carmelo would be willing to wait till FA if he sees Paul and Amare already on board, with the Knicks just waiting on his signature.

scoshin wrote:I know Toronto would love to have Gallinari to pair with Bargnani, but would they be willing to eat Okafor's contract for their large TPE (from the Bosh trade) to get Gallo?

The reason I ask is if we can get a 3rd team willing to take on Okafor if we sweeten the pot with Gallo, we can then sell the rest of our farm (AR, Chandler, Douglas...whatever NOH wants) for Chris Paul. Felton would have to be part of the deal as well to open up cap space in 2011, and NOH would need a replacement point guard anyway since they traded away Collison.

Simply put, if we can find a 3rd team to take on Okafor, and sell the farm for Chris Paul...we'd still have room for Melo in 2011, forming our big 3. And you damn well know that Carmelo would be willing to wait till FA if he sees Paul and Amare already on board, with the Knicks just waiting on his signature.

if that scenario played out i would be all for it... i've always preferred to bring CP3 in here over Melo anyway... i think he would be a much better compliment to Amare's game & like u said, if we have CP3 & Amare on board, u know Melo will wanna sign here this summer.

BigDaddyG wrote:Good point. But the Wins Produces stat leaves out a couple of things. Melo played on a more talented team than Bosh, Wade and James did last season, so it stands to reason that his WP48 would be lower. Denver's players all had defined roles and Billups is better than the second best players of any of those other teams.

Not sure what the resolution to your point is... theoretically it should be evened out because Denver wins more games than those other teams (because of their talent level), and therefore, those wins should trickle down to the WP48 statistic for the players on Denver.

BigDaddyG wrote:
Also, (and i'm referencing the article you linked to)the stat short changes Melo scoring ability. It's not that he's just willing to take more shots, but he's capable of creating that offense as well. The Bulls have been trying for years to get Luol Deng to create more shots and it makes sense. He's tall, a decent athlete and he possesses a decent shooting touch so it should be easy, right. He should be an automatic 20 points a game. But, he's been unable to create the number of opportunities needed to make that happen. Melo is a proven shot creator. That's why teams double team him, that's why the average fan can look at him and say he's one one of the top 10 to 15 players in the league. The ability to create decent shot opportunities isn't one that can really be quantified, but it is something that needs to be taken into account.

I can see where you're going with this point. Again it is hard to tell with current statistics the positive effects of a missed shot (the negative effects are easy to see). A rhythm 3 that leads to a long rebound and a fast break for the other team is a good shot with a bad result. Carmelo missing a shot because he doesn't pass out of a double team is also a negative, but maybe it does not lead to a fast break so for those individual shots, they are both misses - but the 'better' shot led to a worse result.

Theoretically, FG% should even this out... open 3's should be a high percentage shot, and since it scores 3 you can shoot at a lower percentage and still be efficient.

But I think the point of those holistic systems is to explain why supposedly 'good' players measured by standard statistics don't always result in effective teams (and why players like Shane Battier are grossly underrated). I think the way to go is a system rooted in deep analysis of statistics and plain old good scouting (IT would be good for JUST scouting). I think Houston would be a good model to follow because of their solid use of the NBADL and Synergy video analysis. I believe Kevin Pritchard also used similar methods when he was at Portland. Both sport very deep teams and players with reasonable contracts.

http://www.wagesofwins.com/CalculatingWinsProduced.html

I think the issue for Melo is not that other people on his team are eating his rebounds, but that he's not very efficient. On one side you have categories that add to your score, like

Three Point Field Goals Made (3FGM)
Two Point Field Goals Made (2FGM)
Free Throws Made (FTM)
Offensive Rebounds (REBO)
Defensive Rebounds (REBD)
Steals (STL)
Blocked Shots (BLK)
Assists (AST)
Opponent's Turnovers [TO(opp.)]
Team Rebounds (REBTM) (This counts as much as a Defensive Rebound by the way, so the whole other people eating his rebound is negated)

Then you have categories that subtract from your score:

Missed Field Goals (FGMS)
Missed Free Throws (FTMS)
Turnovers (TO)
Opponent's Free Throws Made [FTM(opp.)]
Opponent's Three Point Field Goals Made [3FGM(opp.)]
Opponent's Two Point Field Goals Made [2FGM(opp.)]
Team Turnovers (TOTM)

When he's on the floor, his positive categories don't outweigh the negative ones that much. There isn't a detailed calculation for Carmelo that I could find unfortunately... but here's the categories so make of them what you will.

knickstorrents wrote:Problem with Melo as a core three player, is that any of Miami's core 3 is better than Melo (yes even Bosh). This is based on analysis from the authors of the book Wages of Wins http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0804752877/qid=1136403009/sr=1-1/ref=sr_1_1/002-4376650-5320038?s=books&v=glance&n=283155.

WP48 = Wins Produced per 48 minutes

Bosh WP48 .267
Wade WP48 .20
James WP48 .40 (wow)

Carmelo WP48 .108

Multiply by total minutes played by that player in a season to get the total number of wins that player produced for that season. Incidentally, Al Harrington has a barely negative WP48, and David Lee has an astonishing WP of .26!!!

Here's an article that describes precisely what Carmelo is expected to bring to a team based on past performance as whole, not on individual categories.

http://dberri.wordpress.com/2010/10/01/what-carmelo-anthony-might-cost-the-bulls-besides-money/

I know some of you guys hate these kinds of statistical analysis, but I encourage folks to open up to other ways of looking at the game rather than just straight percentages and scoring averages.

Thanks for posting that Berri article. He linked to this one on Red Auerbach..also a good read
http://hoopspeak.com/2010/09/advanced-statistics-what-would-auerbach-do/

BTW TMS if this were a discussion about Chris Paul I'd be 100% on board with doing whatever it takes to get him here.

Melo is a ridiculously talented scorer. He would obviously make ANY TEAM better but I still am not 100% sure he's all that special. I think the chances of finding another guy to do what Melo does is way higher than trying to find a Lebron/Wade/Chris Paul. That's why I never really questioned Walsh doing what he had to do to get a shot at signing 2 max guys this offseason.

Overall a lot of people who have done some pretty in depth analysis seem to point to the fact that the perception of how good Melo is a lot higher than his actual value. Again it would be stupid to say Melo isn't a great player and would improve a lot of teams. The debate is just over the price tag...

AnubisADL wrote:So people would rather trade the farm for Chris Paul and his bum knee than a healthy Carmelo.

Since Melo will be a FA this summer, and CP3 will not, it makes sense to use some of our assets to make a trade with the Hornets. That gives us the chance to land BOTH CP3 and Melo, possibly even next season if the Hornets are motivated enough.

But yes, when it comes down to it, CP3 is a much better fit for us than Melo, since he would be the most complimentary addition to our roster. Felton just hasn't impressed to this point, and he will never reach the status of a healthy CP3.

scoshin wrote:

AnubisADL wrote:So people would rather trade the farm for Chris Paul and his bum knee than a healthy Carmelo.

Chris Paul is the 1st point guard to have a 4:1 assist:TO ratio since Stockton and Magic Johnson, and he did this while playing with the likes of David West and Tyson Chandler. Imagine what he could do with Amare?

So yes, I would definitely trade the farm for Chris Paul instead of Melo.

knee thing is a pretty big concern for me too but we'll see how he plays this season

GodSaveTheKnicks wrote:

TMS wrote:

GodSaveTheKnicks wrote:

TMS wrote:how long do you plan to wait for the future to become the present? 2 years? 3 years? 5 years? i thought we were waiting for 2010 to come around to go for it for the past 3 seasons? is it the 2013 plan now? sooner or later you gotta go for it, you can't keep waiting forever.

I don't get it. So because we were waiting for Lebron/Wade etc..the plan absolutely has to be win in 1 year??

Shouldn't the plan just be to always take the best available options vs. HAVING to do something in 1 year exactly? Just because we missed on Bron/Wade does that mean we have to sign FAs to whatever contracts they want and get bent over on trades because we have to win nownownow?

DW and MDA both said the plan now is to make moves to get wins..not cap space.

and btw...there is no offer on the table right now that could get us Melo or CP3. I don't understand why people are talking like there's a 3 team deal right now that would deliver us both of those players and Walsh is turning his nose up at it because he love Gallo/AR so much.

CP3 and Melo will both be FAs. If they want to be Knicks they can be Knicks. It appears best shot is to WAIT and sign them as free agents. All of you guys who are arguing that Gallo/Randolph etc aren't that great, think about this:

You guys could def. be right. Gallo and AR could just have ceiling as solid role players. If this is the case then don't the GMs of both Denver and New Orleans have a ton of other places they'd rather make deals with if they're trading their franchise players?

Even if Walsh was willing to trade the farm for Melo...we'd have to wait till the end of Paul's contract to add him to the Amare/Melo core. We don't have the assets to trade for both of them right??

When MDA/Walsh were hired they had no choice but to blow up the roster no? Everyone was on board with them doing whatever it takes to be as attractive as possible this past offseason. I understand the impatience of waiting a decade plus to see a decent team on the court but I don't understand what else could have been done up to this point other than ticky tack arguments about things like was the Fishlips trade necessary.

how in the hell do you consider the T-Mac trade opposition as "ticky tack" arguing? that's ridiculous... that was 1 of the biggest trades this franchise has made in years & could have a lasting effect on our future depending on the players that are taken w/the picks we gave up... to have doubted that trade is only natural & completely justified.

as for being impatient, i am perfectly willing to be patient... i have been very patient up to this point not willing to give up cap space on 3rd & 4th tier players like Gerald Wallace, David Lee, Andre Iguodala, Zach Randolph & the like that others around here said we'd be absolute morons to pass up on... the reason i've remained patient is because i wanted to hold onto our assets in case a top player became available... now i dunno what NBA you follow but to me Carmelo Anthony is a top notch player in the game... not on Lebron or Kobe's level but certainly on the next notch of superstars in this league without a question... IF there is an opportunity to trade for him without giving up every single young player we have (meaning if we could hold onto at least 1 of Gallo or AR in the process), then i think you'd have to be an idiot to pass up on that opportunity... i think i've made that point pretty clear... this has nothing to do w/being impatient... it has everything to do with realizing the type of talent that a guy like Melo can bring to the table... this organization has never had a devastating 1-2 tandem like Amare & Melo in all the years i've been following this franchise... put some good role players around those 2 & you got yourself a team that you can contend with for years to come & quite possibly win a championship with if the right pieces fall into place & either Gallo or AR (whoever is remaining) ever turns out to be that viable 3rd option, or if CP3 ends up coming here in 2011... who knows what the future will bring? all i know is the present, & to me, Melo clearly makes this a better basketball team.

I meant ticky tack as in the Fishlips trade being part of the general Clear Cap for Big FA Class Plan. One could debate the finer points for days but I'm pretty sure everyone was on board for attempting to clear space for 2 FAs no?

My main point is there is no trade that we've turned down right? It's not like Denver said ok here's what we want for Melo and the Knicks turned their noses up at the offer right? It's just insane to me the amount of debate about a trade that is not even on the table right now.

And by the way..the Fishlips trade was done in the same spirit of your own argument. We waited all this time and we HAVE to do what it takes to try to clear space for 2 FAs...and so we paid a pretty damn high price for getting rid of that contract because we felt like we HAD to do it.

I think what you just said was that trading for Melo is a no brainer as long as we get to keep one guy out of Gallo/Randolph. Hopefully Walsh shares you view on trading for Melo as an OPTION for bulding a successful championship caliber team vs. an absolute necessity so we don't have to pay way above market value.

we didn't have to do anything last year... we already had the cap space to offer a max contract to a star player & enough flexibility & assets to make another major trade to bring in another... we gave up assets for nothing but cap space... that's what people had a problem with, we weren't trading for anything concrete, it was a pure roll of the dice maneuver that we wouldn't know the outcome of for months... that was definitely worthy of being second guessed... even the guy who made the deal Donnie Walsh admitted he second guessed himself every day ever since he pulled the trigger on that deal... there is no basis whatsoever to criticize anyone for having doubted that trade or disagreed with it... the Fishlips trade was not made in the spirit of my own argument at all... my argument has always been you don't give up future assets unless you know what you're getting in return... in Melo you know what you're getting, & that is 1 of the top 3 scorers in the game... you're not trading away assets for some pinky swear promise that he's going to sign here next summer like we did in Lebron's case... that was just a bad gamble to take.

like i've said before i have no problem being patient & if there is no deal possible where we can trade for Melo w/o having to give up both Gallo & AR in the process, then i'm fine with waiting it out & seeing what develops this summer... but i don't see DEN having that many options, so a reasonable offer of assets for Melo has, IMHO, a chance of sealing the deal now... i don't want to waste another year waiting & hoping for some gold to land in our laps... IMO if we wanna become a great team, then we gotta go out & MAKE ourselves into one... we gotta be proactive, but smart about it in the process... we can't just throw away assets unless we know what we're getting in return, & we can't be too conservative as to pass up a chance to land a top NBA player if the price is not too unreasonable, because those chances are few & very far between & don't come along very often... it's been over 2 & a half decades i've been following this team & i can't even think of the last time we were able to trade for a top player on Melo's level... probably the best trade i can harken back to is when we got Spree, & he came with all kinds of baggage & controversy & was nowhere near the scorer that Melo is... Melo has none of that baggage & is just now hitting his playing prime... if we were to land him while still holding onto Gallo or AR, it would be a tremendous coup for this franchise & a humongous boost to our overall talent level & attractiveness to other NBA players... the same goes if we can somehow land CP3 in a trade as well... you need superstars to win championships in the NBA... we have 1 in Amare... we gotta work on adding more... acquiring Melo or CP3 would be a huge step in the right direction for the Knicks franchise IMO.