VDesai wrote:Lets be real here. The 6th year of a contract is an odd lot for Lebron James. He'll get that money in year 6 either from a new contract or an extension. Either way in the context of what he has made, what he will make, and what he will make the rest of his life from endorsements and the like, the difference between a Cavs and Knicks contract is an odd lot.

Lebron James is already into legendary status- he will always be a cash generating machine and everyone realizes that. Ultimately he'll go where he wants to play because he's gonna make money no matter what. This guy is not gonna look at this as a cash decision, its a life decision.

I agree. Both Briggs and cosmic are right but the only way lebron actually makes less money signing here is if he has a serious injury that ends his career. Otherwise between endorsement and an extension, he will probably make alot more signing with the knicks. Lebron has made so much money already that signing a 5 year deal will not be that much of a risk for him.

I think another tough loss in the playoffs would seal it for tho. He'd be looking for a fresh start to see if that would workout better. If he wins I don't see him leaving. This Jamison experiment has to fail for us to have a real shot.

bitty41 wrote:

Exactly. At this point in his career, he is planning his legacy. Winning with the Cavs is one thing. Rejuvenating the Knicks is something else entirely. As far as legacies go, there is really no comparison.
He will have to retire one day (everyone does) due to age and diminished skills. So in addition to his legacy he will want to be best set up to compete in business. I doubt he is thinking "Well, Cleveland doesn't have any business going on, but at least I can make some inroads in Shanghai."

I would fathom that he is rather thinking "NYC will be MY kingdom. I will control my destiny. After my playing career, I will:

1) Own a network (LBJTV)
2) Own my brand
3) Own part of MSG
4) Own a vertically integrated line of businesses selling LBJ merchandise
5) Own a few of the finest restaurants in the world
6) Own a financial firm dabbling in new-fangled LBJ derivatives

New York is where those things will happen. Not Cleveland, and certainly not China.

Don't even mention that word legacy, because if Lebron is seriously concerned with his legacy he would never consider leaving Clev for a team that's rebuilding. The rest of your post seems to be made of fantasy.

Knick fans act as though NY is the only place in the World to earn money. Have you people heard of things like cable, internet, this will enable any player in any market to be seen by millions of fans. If this was 20 years ago this would be legitimate argument but now it's total bs. Michael Jordan's endorsement earnings had very little to do with him playing Chicago and more with him Championships and of course individual performances.

This is getting annoying - if LeBron James signs here, this is NOT a rebuilding team! He'll be joining a team with another mega star like Chris Bosh, two decent young prospects in Danilo Gallinari and Wilson Chandler and possibly a veteran like Tracy McGrady. That is far from a rebuilding team. Take King James off Cleveland that team is trash, even with Antawn Jamison, who isn't that good anyway.

And 20 years ago or not, playing and winning in New York will forever exceed anything King James does in Cleveland. That is just fact. Ask CC Sabathia.

As to my fantasies, I suppose you're right. But the gist of my silliness is that opportunities for his post-playing career in NYC far outweigh what he might accomplish in Cleveland/China.

bitty41 wrote:

Exactly. At this point in his career, he is planning his legacy. Winning with the Cavs is one thing. Rejuvenating the Knicks is something else entirely. As far as legacies go, there is really no comparison.
He will have to retire one day (everyone does) due to age and diminished skills. So in addition to his legacy he will want to be best set up to compete in business. I doubt he is thinking "Well, Cleveland doesn't have any business going on, but at least I can make some inroads in Shanghai."

I would fathom that he is rather thinking "NYC will be MY kingdom. I will control my destiny. After my playing career, I will:

1) Own a network (LBJTV)
2) Own my brand
3) Own part of MSG
4) Own a vertically integrated line of businesses selling LBJ merchandise
5) Own a few of the finest restaurants in the world
6) Own a financial firm dabbling in new-fangled LBJ derivatives

New York is where those things will happen. Not Cleveland, and certainly not China.

Don't even mention that word legacy, because if Lebron is seriously concerned with his legacy he would never consider leaving Clev for a team that's rebuilding. The rest of your post seems to be made of fantasy.

Knick fans act as though NY is the only place in the World to earn money. Have you people heard of things like cable, internet, this will enable any player in any market to be seen by millions of fans. If this was 20 years ago this would be legitimate argument but now it's total bs. Michael Jordan's endorsement earnings had very little to do with him playing Chicago and more with him Championships and of course individual performances.

Great post. You would have sworn the rest of the USA is a third world country the way some make it seem.

Getting to that next level in earning potential is all about winning Championships.

bitty41 wrote:

This is getting annoying - if LeBron James signs here, this is NOT a rebuilding team! He'll be joining a team with another mega star like Chris Bosh, two decent young prospects in Danilo Gallinari and Wilson Chandler and possibly a veteran like Tracy McGrady. That is far from a rebuilding team. Take King James off Cleveland that team is trash, even with Antawn Jamison, who isn't that good anyway.

Oh I'm sorry I missed the quote where Chris Bosh said he would go wherever Lebron goes.

And 20 years ago or not, playing and winning in New York will forever exceed anything King James does in Cleveland. That is just fact. Ask CC Sabathia.

First off I don't even know who CC Sabathia is. Again you assume that there will be winning in NY? The Knicks will essentially be building the team from scratch over the summer so at this point I can't possibly put faith in Walsh that he will have an elite roster put together by the fall of 2010. A million and one things could happen between now and next season.

A second mega star LIKE a Chris Bosh. It could be Joe Johnson, Amare Stoudemire or maybe Dwyane Wade. If you didn't notice, Donnie Walsh made a trade last week that opened the 'Robin' spot on the team next year. Something no other team can do, besides Miami, and LeBron James isn't going there.

Sorry but that makes no sense. A team with King James, a second mega star like Bosh or Johnson plus a veteran like Tracy McGrady and young productive players like Danilo Gallinari and Wilson Chandler is not starting from scratch. That's arguably the best team in the entire Eastern conference.

Yes, a million and one things can happen but stop trying to diminish what Donnie Walsh has done. Stop pretending like 'New York' is some ordinary cow town in middle America. This is the capital of the entire world! And Walsh put this franchise in prime position to be a serious contender next year. And as much as fans like Briggs and yourself might hate it because Walsh didn't build this team through the Draft, he's gone the best route possible in rebuilding this DEAD franchise and he's done a smart thing using 'New York' and the mecca of basketball as the selling point.

bitty41 wrote:

This is getting annoying - if LeBron James signs here, this is NOT a rebuilding team! He'll be joining a team with another mega star like Chris Bosh, two decent young prospects in Danilo Gallinari and Wilson Chandler and possibly a veteran like Tracy McGrady. That is far from a rebuilding team. Take King James off Cleveland that team is trash, even with Antawn Jamison, who isn't that good anyway.

Oh I'm sorry I missed the quote where Chris Bosh said he would go wherever Lebron goes.

And 20 years ago or not, playing and winning in New York will forever exceed anything King James does in Cleveland. That is just fact. Ask CC Sabathia.

First off I don't even know who CC Sabathia is. Again you assume that there will be winning in NY? The Knicks will essentially be building the team from scratch over the summer so at this point I can't possibly put faith in Walsh that he will have an elite roster put together by the fall of 2010. A million and one things could happen between now and next season.

the bench of Douglas, Walker and Giddens are not really a positive yet as they havent proven anything IMO.

But worst case is you add Lebron to that squad and you in the 2nd round, at the worst. I mean its not like your adding Lebron to Doleac, Othella Harrington and Howard Eisley. Chandler/Lee/Gallo/Sergio are some decent parts. Lee was an all star injury replacement or not.

If Lebron is coming its because he wants too. Cable and internet aside the geography does matter. ARod gets more press then Pujols because he's in NY when AP is the better player. Shaq left a Magic team that just went to the finals and had one of the best guards in the league (Penny) to go to LA. Lakers had Nick Van Exel, Cedric Ceballos and Eddie Jones. He went because he wanted to be a Laker.

Its fun to banter around the 10,000 reason he would or wouldnt come here, but the bottom line is its going to be because thats what he wants.

I do believe he's got every chance to win here than anywhere else. Knicks will be willing to overspend for talent around him, luxury tax be damned. You have Curry's expiring contract to burn next year. Walsh will play the $3mm to other teams to add picks if he likes guys late in the draft (Douglas PLEASE turn out to be good... PLEASE).

I agree with Cosmic that you cannot compare five years to six years, and I also agree that the sixth year will most likely be extended.

I agree with Briggs that terms of the contract are the terms of the contract and therefore LeBron is extending himself to more risk by taking five years as opposed to six.

You discount the cash flows as money today is more valuable than tomorrow. So that sixth year keeps value but it isn't full value.

I took the NPV of the two contracts. Discounted at 10 percent the difference in the contracts is $26.24 million and discounted at 3.5 percent the difference is $36.24 million.

That range does not take into account the sixth year. The NPV of the hypothetical sixth year is $15.90 million discounted at 10 percent and $22.94 discounted at 3.5 percent.

Reducing the amount by 100 percent would be a mistake as that fails to consider injury risk. I have no idea how to pick a probability of injury, so I'll put it at 50 percent.

I would argue that LeBron is leaving somewhere between $18.29 million and $24.78 million on the table, which is not as much as is being reported but also not as much as little as is being argued. This analysis is a GROSS amount too, as it is impossible to guess LBJ's tax structure