martin wrote:how about let us start on the other side of things. The NBA pays its rookies on average around $1.5M per over 3 years, essentially a $4.5M total investment because 3 years are guaranteed. Is it smart for them to want to wait on drafting athletes for as long as they can? Let's see:Most guys don't physically fill out until around 21 years old? I think we can agree that most 18 year olds who are eligible in college are not physically ready for the NBA schedule. In fact, of those drafted, I think we can say that 90% are not physically ready, and of the 18 year olds, maybe 1 a year is physically ready. Of those who are drafted, how many who are drafted actually contribute on a regular basis verus those who are mostly just sucking up a paycheck? And those who are contributing regularly, how many were at least 2 years out of high school?
So, from the NBA's perspective, the investment in a kid straight out of high school is worthless outside of the once or twice every decade. And those 2 players would be no different, ie have to less earning potential over a career, than if they had been drafted 2 years later.
If you abolish the age limit MAYBE the NBA gets 4-5 extra kids a YEAR drafted who fall into 1-2 years out of high school, and of those kids, 2 of them are failures in the NBA.
So, you abolish the age limit, how does the NCAA practices change? I think not at all. So where is the tie?
I see why the NBA would not want to draft young kids.
That is why I argue for a true minor league development process, much like Europe has, or MLB, NHL, Golf, Tennis, etc.
The problem here is our investment in an antiquated system of the NCAA under the ruse that it is what is good for the players. I think it is good for the players to try to ply their trade and get paid as professionals even if they are not in the NBA just like they do in the sports I mentioned above.
Is it in the NBA's best interest to develop kids on their own dime? Maybe not on an NBA roster, but on a minor league level it is probably a good idea and it is way more fair than asking kids to pretend to be students just so they can showcase their ability and hope to be in the 1% that gets a shot at the NBA!
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I know a guy who started working in finance at the age of 16 or 17. He was a wunderkind. I believe JP Morgan hired him. There are cases in other industries - such as computer programming - where prodigies get hired. But the companies only hire them if they are truly ready.
So the answer is that basketball players should go to the NBA when they are ready. The big problem was that the NBA teams could not control themselves and stop picking kids who were not ready. They gambled too much. Lack of self-control by NBA franchises is the real genesis of the 19 years rule. If the kids don't get picked, they have to make other arrangements. Now they have no option, and when some kid does challenge the rule, they will beat it in court.
oohah