Posted by BigC:

Told you. Make Nate the 3rd option over Curry. lol

Posted by holfresh:


Wow...Is this the team people love to hate in this forum....

Posted by Cosmic:

Posted by VDesai:

I don't think you get it or bothered to read the explanation.

It's a simulation model that takes everyone's records into account today, and then runs a simulation on the possible outcomes of every game for every team and then spits back odds of getting into the playoffs based on actual record.

So in the end it shows each record as a possible outcome individually and then gives you a weighted average to calculate your odds of making it in. He has not applied a probability to each of those outcomes (and how in the hell would he?).

Soooo...it's an absolute crap shoot that's about as impressive as when ESPN does their little Lotto Machine - that you can run time and again until you get results you like?

No, I don't get it, and yes, he could create a logical model that would extrapolate team's current records - and apply a variable that takes into account a recent streak - and come up with a more respective outcome.

Again, it loses all credibility when it cites a .315 team as having a 5.6% chance - and then - says the same team, if it played above .550 ball the rest of the way, would actually have a much less or infitismal chance of making the playoffs.

So, uh, if we continue to suck at .315, we have a 5.6% chance, but if we improve drastically, our chances fall to nil?

Come'on man, you gotta find that funny.

Again, how could a win total that I suggest we'd need to make the playoffs, and quite likely be a 95%-100% likely playoff team, only get a 64% chance from him? So what would be 100% chance? 55 wins?


Seriously, I don't mean to tread if you enjoy the site, I'm just saying it's wacked and is completely illogical, is highly contradictory of its own findings, and is no more useful than ESPN's Lotto Machine where you push a GO button and it runs like a slot machine and just randomly spits out what could be a lotto order.

There is nothing illogical about it. They treat each game as a random event. They run it into a quick simulator. It gives you results. It's called math. It's not whacked or illogical. It actually removes all subjective evaluation from the matter. Now each game as a coin flip may not be the case- but if you don't have a 100% accurate way of predicting the future than why apply it?

Posted by Cosmic:

Posted by holfresh:

Posted by Cosmic:

Posted by holfresh:


Wow...Is this the team people love to hate in this forum....

Oh, dude, please.....

they're 12-26! Not 3-0.

So, stop that...seriously....don't choose one fragment then smash people for "hating" on a team that was 9-26 before they found a way to win a few games. That's not even fair.

Bro, I'm just commenting on their good play in this game...I am contrasting their play tonight compared to the rest of the season...

Some a little sensitive tonight...



[Edited by - holfresh on 01-18-2008 7:56 PM]

Yes, you are a little sensitive tonight. Your calling people out who want change because the Knicks are staying close to the Wizards tonight while letting them shoot 64% on us?

Gimme a break... You're getting on people who don't like that we're 12-26 because you choose to look at things as "Well, they've won their last 3, and their in tonights game" and nothing else?

Yah, okay....to each their own, until, you call people out.

You wanna root for the Knicks or be happy with the past few outings? Nothing wrong with that, until you call people out who chose to look at a bigger picture and view this recent streak as nothing more than a streak - and not some monumental statement of a turnaround of some sorts.

Bro, If you have ever read any of my post you would know I don't shy away from confrontation when it comes calling people out...I'm telling you I'm not trying to call anyone out and take that as face value...The time will come when I call people out and there will be no doubt about it...This ain't that time...If you want to pick a fight, I always game...But this ain't the time...