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Mardy Collins: Best and worst-case scenario's
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Solace
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5/29/2007  4:17 PM
Posted by purple012870:

PressIke - I don't think the Anthony Johnson comparison is an insult to Collins. Johnson has always been a fine back-up point.

I agree with you. Solid backup/solid starter is not an insult when you're talking about the 29th pick.

I don't understand why people assume gold with EVERY Knicks pick, yet these same people assume every other team's pick has a good chance of being complete garbage. It mystifies me. Or you some people just think every draft pick is an absolute stud and every veteran over 27 sucks. Again, mystifying. Not every player can be a star. Some players are destined to be role players. Some players won't even get that far. If you're talking worst case, worst case isn't an NBA starter. Worst case is much worse. If you're talking best case as a top 5 PG, you're probably not being reasonable, or took it too literally, for the 0.00001% chance that Mardy Collins is one of the top PGs ever.

As far as people depending their own deep-down personal beliefs that Mardy will be a star, why bother? To provide evidence of such is futile; there isn't any, and you're betting against the odds, but that's your choice. Knocking down arguments that are based on the probability of a late first round pick becoming a good role player or better (which is less than a 50% chance) is being too optimistic. Statistics are what they are. I like Mardy; but right now he's proven almost nothing in this league, so we have to accept that there's a real possibility that Mardy winds up being junk (like Channing). Even Lavor Postell looked as good as Sprewell in short spurts. So, let's just see what happens and make realistic projections (for a change).
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PresIke
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5/29/2007  5:32 PM
Why is any defense of an Isiah move have to be so oversimplified into broad sweeping mis-generalizations of what was stated? To defend Collins' upside mean he's "gold" or that he's going to be a top 5 pg? Please point to the part where that was stated. I did mention Ron Harper and Derek Harper, but I didn't imply that he would be as good as them at the top of their game. All I did was ask if that's what someone meant. He played well at the end of the season, so why is it wrong to think that he could be good. He was pretty close to averaging a triple double, so that means he's a certified backup guard and to think he couldn't be a pretty darn good NBA player is dumb?

Not that I agree that Collins, Frye, Lee, Nate or Balkman will be superstars, but how come Tyrus Thomas gets a pass as a potential superstar, but they don't when he has shown even less reason, IMHO, to be so? What because of so-called potential when he was drafted?

Gilbert Areans was a second round pick, Spree, Parker & Lee (I believe both were near the last 2 picks) were late first rounders and Kwame Brown and Kandiman were the #1 pick at one point. Which players would you rather have now?

You then claim that there is a "0.00001%" chance of them being a star. Would you care to share what what kind of statistical analysis this is based on? Please share that with us if you would because I'd like to see it...

Ok, I'm being a smart alec....the reality is that there is no statistical analysis to support this claim, it's a bunch of rhetoric from fans who apparently hate Isiah, and refuse to even consider the prospect that some guys they thought were gonna suck might be good.

Think about that, what is the benefit of not having any hope for Collins? It even goes against what he did on the court last year. So Frank Williams didn't live up to the hype...so what. Just because one player we had hopes for didn't doesn't mean every player we draft is going to be the same. Doesn't the self-deprecating Knick fan stuff ever get old to some here? So what Collins doesn't become a star, I can live with it, but why not have some hope that he could be pretty good? Please provide a good reason why as a fan one should decide to ignore hope altogether, after seeing positive signs in a player, and live in misery thinking about the team?

I challenge all of the "My life revolves around posting on UK and RealGM as an anti-Isiah Knick fan" to ask yourself why you go so far out of your way to undervalue every player on the Knicks? It's like we are self-hating fans so used to crappy draft picks and feeling like we get shafted and made fun of by everyone else in the sports world that we refuse to see the potential upside in our own youth, and to do so is somehow an implication of claiming they are the next superstar when that was never stated.

It isn't so black and white man. I can see some players not panning out, but I hope they do. Collins has some potential, and I like him. Postell was NOTHING compared to Collins, based on what I saw. Postell's hype was when he was drafted, fans felt we got a god player but he never showed us jack on the court when he got his chances, so guess what he was not that good to begin with.

But when Mardy got PT he showed things on the court that went against a lot of what was said about him. Some criticisms were accurate, he can't shoot consistently (although I think his stroke looks fine), but he is more athletic and physical than the scouting report said. Go check the NBA draft report on him and see how wrong it is about that part of his game. This is one tough dude who's not afraid. Lee and Balkman are also similar in mentality which is a major reason why they have done well, IMHO. They all play with a lot of confidence and toughness which is not common in young plaeyrs today. So now he's anthony Johnson? That dude was slow, and not much of a creator? Collins is more athletic and more interesting to me than the prodding Johnson ever looked like on the court.

Don't you think he deserves a chance before assuming he's a mediocre backup PG after what he showed late last year?

[Edited by - PresIke on 05-29-2007 5:35 PM]
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Solace
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5/29/2007  5:54 PM
Posted by PresIke:

Why is any defense of an Isiah move have to be so oversimplified into broad sweeping mis-generalizations of what was stated? To defend Collins' upside mean he's "gold" or that he's going to be a top 5 pg? Please point to the part where that was stated. I did mention Ron Harper and Derek Harper, but I didn't imply that he would be as good as them at the top of their game. All I did was ask if that's what someone meant. He played well at the end of the season, so why is it wrong to think that he could be good. He was pretty close to averaging a triple double, so that means he's a certified backup guard and to think he couldn't be a pretty darn good NBA player is dumb?

Not that I agree that Collins, Frye, Lee, Nate or Balkman will be superstars, but how come Tyrus Thomas gets a pass as a potential superstar, but they don't when he has shown even less reason, IMHO, to be so? What because of so-called potential when he was drafted?

Gilbert Areans was a second round pick, Spree, Parker & Lee (I believe both were near the last 2 picks) were late first rounders and Kwame Brown and Kandiman were the #1 pick at one point. Which players would you rather have now?

You then claim that there is a "0.00001%" chance of them being a star. Would you care to share what what kind of statistical analysis this is based on? Please share that with us if you would because I'd like to see it...

Ok, I'm being a smart alec....the reality is that there is no statistical analysis to support this claim, it's a bunch of rhetoric from fans who apparently hate Isiah, and refuse to even consider the prospect that some guys they thought were gonna suck might be good.

Think about that, what is the benefit of not having any hope for Collins? It even goes against what he did on the court last year. So Frank Williams didn't live up to the hype...so what. Just because one player we had hopes for didn't doesn't mean every player we draft is going to be the same. Doesn't the self-deprecating Knick fan stuff ever get old to some here? So what Collins doesn't become a star, I can live with it, but why not have some hope that he could be pretty good? Please provide a good reason why as a fan one should decide to ignore hope altogether, after seeing positive signs in a player, and live in misery thinking about the team?

I challenge all of the "My life revolves around posting on UK and RealGM as an anti-Isiah Knick fan" to ask yourself why you go so far out of your way to undervalue every player on the Knicks? It's like we are self-hating fans so used to crappy draft picks and feeling like we get shafted and made fun of by everyone else in the sports world that we refuse to see the potential upside in our own youth, and to do so is somehow an implication of claiming they are the next superstar when that was never stated.

It isn't so black and white man. I can see some players not panning out, but I hope they do. Collins has some potential, and I like him. Postell was NOTHING compared to Collins, based on what I saw. Postell's hype was when he was drafted, fans felt we got a god player but he never showed us jack on the court when he got his chances, so guess what he was not that good to begin with.

But when Mardy got PT he showed things on the court that went against a lot of what was said about him. Some criticisms were accurate, he can't shoot consistently (although I think his stroke looks fine), but he is more athletic and physical than the scouting report said. Go check the NBA draft report on him and see how wrong it is about that part of his game. This is one tough dude who's not afraid. Lee and Balkman are also similar in mentality which is a major reason why they have done well, IMHO. They all play with a lot of confidence and toughness which is not common in young plaeyrs today. So now he's anthony Johnson? That dude was slow, and not much of a creator? Collins is more athletic and more interesting to me than the prodding Johnson ever looked like on the court.

Don't you think he deserves a chance before assuming he's a mediocre backup PG after what he showed late last year?

[Edited by - PresIke on 05-29-2007 5:35 PM]

Pres, wow, how did you get all of that from my post? First of all, my response wasn't directed at you. Second of all, there were posts like this:
Worst Case Lakers/Bulls Ron Harper

I mean Ron Harper as a worst case? That's pretty freakin' good, don't you think!?

I agree with you that you're being a smart alec. Outside of that, all I said was that he can flop, just like any draft player can flop, so if we're talking about worst case, it's a flop... it's not Ron Harper. Worst case is also lower than Charlie Ward or Greg Anthony. Those were both good NBA players. Great, no.

Plain and simple, until he gets enough chance to prove himself over a full season, he can flop, just like Frye did. Is his upside high? His upside is reasonable. I think he could certainly be a good player for this team. That's not an insult to him. It's just holding realistic expectations, vs. expecting everyone to be a star.

As I've said many times before (and been many time ignored), the general consensus among the lovers on the board:

Curry is a star
Lee is a star
Balkman is a star
Crawford is possibly a star
Marbury is a star

There's only so much room; not every player can be a star. If you guys think Collins is also a star, then knock someone else off your star list. That simple.

Why is it taken as such an offense that I think Collins could simply help the team (and has the potential to flop, as any drafted player does) but isn't a star? Explain that.

And if you think that I think Collins has no hope, you just haven't been listening. Sorry.

[Edited by - Solace on May 29 2007 5:55 PM]
Wishing everyone well. I enjoyed posting here for a while, but as I matured I realized this forum isn't for me. We all evolve. Thanks for the memories everyone.
bigbeast
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5/29/2007  7:19 PM
Best case= Doc Rivers/Alvin Robertson (BRIGGS- good call on the Fat Lever Comparison.)

Worst case= Mateen Cleaves/Frank Williams etc.
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nixluva
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5/29/2007  10:01 PM
I think it's a joke how people have to resort to exaggeration and LIES to express the opinions of fans here that like the team and some of the players on this team. If I like Lee, Balkman and Collins, that's not the same as saying I think they're gonna be All Stars. This is just stupid.

Even if you don't love Isiah's picks, you have to be honest and admit that nmost of these guys can play in this league and have decent upside. The most important thing is that in the case of Balkman and COllins, we needed to add players known to defend and we did. They bring energy on the defensive end and that's EXACTLY what we needed. David Lee is a hustle player and that is exactly what we needed. For such late picks we got good value and they still have a chance to be even better. We're actually bashing guys who are rookies and 2nd yr players. I mean come on already!!! GEEZ! What's wrong with you people? Can we give these guys a chance to develop?

We don't need Collins to be spectacular or top of the league. He simply needs to be productive, which I think he clearly can be. He's already a VERY SOLID defender and he's versatile, being able to cover the 1, 2 or 3 defensively. You know some of you bashed Curry for not being a defensive player and now you don't give credit to our young guys who ARE.
islesfan
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5/29/2007  10:16 PM
Collins was a late first rd pick and some thought that it was a reach to take him that high. He has serious flaws in his game and it doesn't seem that he can run an offense any better than a mediocre backup PG.

He's shown no more than Frank Williams did and chances are he's going to find playing time hard to come by with a veteran laden backcourt.

Other than that, he's awesome and shame on anybody for thinking that he can't be another Deron Williams.
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Solace
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5/29/2007  10:23 PM
Posted by nixluva:

I think it's a joke how people have to resort to exaggeration and LIES to express the opinions of fans here that like the team and some of the players on this team. If I like Lee, Balkman and Collins, that's not the same as saying I think they're gonna be All Stars. This is just stupid.

Even if you don't love Isiah's picks, you have to be honest and admit that nmost of these guys can play in this league and have decent upside. The most important thing is that in the case of Balkman and COllins, we needed to add players known to defend and we did. They bring energy on the defensive end and that's EXACTLY what we needed. David Lee is a hustle player and that is exactly what we needed. For such late picks we got good value and they still have a chance to be even better. We're actually bashing guys who are rookies and 2nd yr players. I mean come on already!!! GEEZ! What's wrong with you people? Can we give these guys a chance to develop?

We don't need Collins to be spectacular or top of the league. He simply needs to be productive, which I think he clearly can be. He's already a VERY SOLID defender and he's versatile, being able to cover the 1, 2 or 3 defensively. You know some of you bashed Curry for not being a defensive player and now you don't give credit to our young guys who ARE.

Ok, so pretty much you knocked what I said as blatant lies and then pretty much agreed with me. Interesting... I just said we need to give him time and he doesn't need to be a star and not everyone can be a star. Where's the disagreement? No wonder you drive Bippity nuts.

Poster: "I think A is valid"
Nixluva: "No, you stupid ass!!! A is the only possible answer. F you!"
Poster: "Um... you agreed with me, dork."
Wishing everyone well. I enjoyed posting here for a while, but as I matured I realized this forum isn't for me. We all evolve. Thanks for the memories everyone.
Rich
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5/29/2007  10:57 PM
Best case: Walt Frazier

Worst case: Don Chaney
BlueSeats
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5/29/2007  11:10 PM
Posted by Rich:

Best case: Walt Frazier

Worst case: Don Chaney


Good to know at a minimum he's a five-time all-defensive second team player and two time champion.
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5/29/2007  11:11 PM
Presike - you know what it is? Guys don't want to go on record saying Collins is can be as good as a certain player cuz they want to be on a even plane just in case he flops.

You know I didn't know rob Harper or Derek Harper was michesl Jordan and magic Johnson. Collins has shown the ability to play in this league. I hope he can get a chance one day to show and prove as a full-time starter one day. If he doesn't I hope some of you bookmark it so you can call me out on it if I'm wrong and every other time I have an opinion over a young guy.

I thought lavar postel was gonna be good. I thought shammond Williams was gonna be an elite point guard. I thought Q-woods was gonna be the knicks starter at the 3 for the next 10 years.

I compare this to the people that refuse to burn channing as hard as they should. They are afraid of the outside chance he bounces back next year. They might call him a bust but want to leave it open to say they knew channing was gonna turn it around. What wrong with calling a guy a homo if he plays like one? There is a season worth of puss play last year to prove it. Channings year one has nothing to do with it. Collins was a different player at the start of the year. He sucked. Last month of the season the dude was playing great when filling in for injured guys. Totally differnt player.

Nobody can predict the massive drug habit Collins is gonna pick up during the off season. The knicks as a team didn't win doesn't mean this guy can't be a part of this team turning it around. I hope he can do in Derek Harper fashion.
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Rich
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5/29/2007  11:14 PM
Posted by BlueSeats:
Posted by Rich:

Best case: Walt Frazier

Worst case: Don Chaney


Good to know at a minimum he's a five-time all-defensive second team player and two time champion.

You're welcome.
Rich
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5/29/2007  11:23 PM
btw, The point about championships is spurious. He played on great teams.
bigpimpin
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5/29/2007  11:36 PM
Rich, have you ever heard of the word sarcasm?
"Anyone who sits around waiting to hit the lottery, whether basketball or real life, in order to better their position is a loser."
Rich
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5/29/2007  11:37 PM
Posted by bigpimpin:

Rich, have you ever heard of the word sarcasm?

Ooooooooops.
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5/29/2007  11:41 PM
Posted by Rich:

btw, The point about championships is spurious. He played on great teams.


Most guys who win championships do.
Rich
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5/29/2007  11:48 PM
Posted by BlueSeats:
Posted by Rich:

btw, The point about championships is spurious. He played on great teams.


Most guys who win championships do.

Right. But some people, I'm not saying you, view players that win championships as being better than those who don't, which, when taken to the extreme, means that Clay Bellinger is better than Alex Rodriguez.

[Edited by - Rich on 05-29-2007 11:48 PM]
bigpimpin
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5/29/2007  11:52 PM
Who are the posters who view players that have won champiuonships as better than those players who haven't?

I need to know this kind of stuff, Rich.
"Anyone who sits around waiting to hit the lottery, whether basketball or real life, in order to better their position is a loser."
Rich
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5/29/2007  11:53 PM
Posted by bigpimpin:

Who are the posters who view players that have won champiuonships as better than those players who haven't?

I need to know this kind of stuff, Rich.

I don't necessarily mean on this board, but you often read posts on baseball boards that state that A-Rod is a loser because he doesn't have a ring.
BlueSeats
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5/29/2007  11:57 PM
Posted by Rich:
Posted by BlueSeats:
Posted by Rich:

btw, The point about championships is spurious. He played on great teams.


Most guys who win championships do.

Right. But some people, I'm not saying you, view players that win championships as being better than those who don't, which, when taken to the extreme, means that Clay Bellinger is better than Alex Rodriguez.

[Edited by - Rich on 05-29-2007 11:48 PM]



I'm just having fun with you, but Chaney was a serious player, putting him as a worst case scenario is drastically underrating him.
newyorknewyork
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5/30/2007  12:30 AM
Its hard to say best & worst case because we don't know what type of work ethic he brings yet.

I also don't think Frank Williams is a good comparison because Frank Williams created excellent ball movement. Frank Williams was like a lesser Jamal Tinsley. I don't see Collins being in the Tinsley mold.

I don't see Collins creating ball movement like that. But I do see Collins being smart with the ball and playing good defense on this opponent. I also him being a guy who attacks the rim a lot as well as being a strong rebounder, while having an inconsistent jump shot. A 10-5-5 average with explosive games of 20pts 10rebs 8assist. As well as no show games of 0-7-5.
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Mardy Collins: Best and worst-case scenario's

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