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OMG.. these #'s are INSANE
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islesfan
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11/8/2005  2:32 PM
Posted by Bonn1997:
Posted by fishmike:
Posted by rvhoss:

So what's your point? AD getting 9 boards a game is meaningless?

I don't see the correlation.
Posted by fishmike:
Posted by Bonn1997:

These #s are quite unstable this early in the season. I'm sure they'll get much smaller but the point that the young guys are winners and the vets are losing games is clear.
hey you got it! Good boy
since we now have stats that prove the Knicks are horrible with AD in the line up what conclusion would you draw Einstien?
They hardly "prove" anything with a sample size of 3 games. I'm with you that Frye and Lee should be playing ahead of AD, though. I didn't need 82games.com to tell me that.

[Edited by - Bonn1997 on 11-08-2005 2:25 PM]


But yet you made such a big deal about Big Stiff's 12 good playoff games out of the hundreds NBA games that he's played.

As Solace would say: You're pwned.
If it didn’t work in Phoenix with Nash and Stoutamire... it’s just not a winning formula. It’s an entertaining formula, but not a winning one. - Derek Harper talking about D'Antoni's System
AUTOADVERT
djsunyc
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11/8/2005  2:36 PM
Posted by islesfan:

As Solace would say: You're pwned.

ok...THAT'S IT!!!

martin, andrew...can we please officialy replace that god awful "pwned" crap with stars "*****" like a curse word. i don't ever want to see that again.


rvhoss
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11/8/2005  2:38 PM
I still don't know what it means, I always stop reading the thread after I see that because the next post from isles wound be:
rv...you are *****!

And I'd start to cry.
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crzymdups
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11/8/2005  3:21 PM
Posted by rvhoss:

I still don't understand, does AD suck and Rose is our best front court player?
Did you pull these stats to prove that they make no sense?

What are you thoughts on Rose's high ranking? And does this confirm Ariza is a star?

Are you having trouble reading that Mo Taylor and Frye are ranked ahead of Rose? Or do Mo and Frye not count as "big men"?
¿ △ ?
rvhoss
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11/8/2005  3:30 PM
Oh Sh!T...I guess I was. My bad.
Love live Ariza!
Posted by crzymdups:
Posted by rvhoss:

I still don't understand, does AD suck and Rose is our best front court player?
Did you pull these stats to prove that they make no sense?

What are you thoughts on Rose's high ranking? And does this confirm Ariza is a star?

Are you having trouble reading that Mo Taylor and Frye are ranked ahead of Rose? Or do Mo and Frye not count as "big men"?


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Bonn1997
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11/8/2005  3:39 PM
Posted by islesfan:
Posted by Bonn1997:
Posted by fishmike:
Posted by rvhoss:

So what's your point? AD getting 9 boards a game is meaningless?

I don't see the correlation.
Posted by fishmike:
Posted by Bonn1997:

These #s are quite unstable this early in the season. I'm sure they'll get much smaller but the point that the young guys are winners and the vets are losing games is clear.
hey you got it! Good boy
since we now have stats that prove the Knicks are horrible with AD in the line up what conclusion would you draw Einstien?
They hardly "prove" anything with a sample size of 3 games. I'm with you that Frye and Lee should be playing ahead of AD, though. I didn't need 82games.com to tell me that.

[Edited by - Bonn1997 on 11-08-2005 2:25 PM]


But yet you made such a big deal about Big Stiff's 12 good playoff games out of the hundreds NBA games that he's played.

As Solace would say: You're pwned.
I said he had nice #s in his 17 career playoff games. You can hardly say 17 games and 3 games are comparable samples sizes. I hope that even you wouldn't make that kind of stretch.

crzymdups
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11/8/2005  4:00 PM
Posted by Bonn1997:


I said he had nice #s in his 17 career playoff games. You can hardly say 17 games and 3 games are comparable samples sizes. I hope that even you wouldn't make that kind of stretch.

Bottom line: there's no argument you can make that makes that Jerome James signing make sense. Hey, he's fooled other GMs before Zeke (Layden offered him the full MLE and Seattle signed him to one before we gave him his second MLE contract this summer.)
¿ △ ?
islesfan
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11/8/2005  4:15 PM
Posted by Bonn1997:
Posted by islesfan:
Posted by Bonn1997:
Posted by fishmike:
Posted by rvhoss:

So what's your point? AD getting 9 boards a game is meaningless?

I don't see the correlation.
Posted by fishmike:
Posted by Bonn1997:

These #s are quite unstable this early in the season. I'm sure they'll get much smaller but the point that the young guys are winners and the vets are losing games is clear.
hey you got it! Good boy
since we now have stats that prove the Knicks are horrible with AD in the line up what conclusion would you draw Einstien?
They hardly "prove" anything with a sample size of 3 games. I'm with you that Frye and Lee should be playing ahead of AD, though. I didn't need 82games.com to tell me that.

[Edited by - Bonn1997 on 11-08-2005 2:25 PM]


But yet you made such a big deal about Big Stiff's 12 good playoff games out of the hundreds NBA games that he's played.

As Solace would say: You're pwned.
I said he had nice #s in his 17 career playoff games. You can hardly say 17 games and 3 games are comparable samples sizes. I hope that even you wouldn't make that kind of stretch.


I bet you couldn't even type that with a straight face.
If it didn’t work in Phoenix with Nash and Stoutamire... it’s just not a winning formula. It’s an entertaining formula, but not a winning one. - Derek Harper talking about D'Antoni's System
tomverve
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11/8/2005  6:19 PM
Great to see some of the more sophisticated stats beginning to circulate, but there are some misconceptions here I think.

- It's already been mentioned but bears repeating: nothing really meaningful can be projected from these #s just yet. The sample size is very small and very biased.

- To give you an idea of how very noisy these stats are, here are the season leaders in net +/- rankings for the past 3 seasons:

04/05: Duncan (+16.6)
03/04: Garnett (+17.9)
02/03: Garnett (+22.8)

Hopefully this puts things in perspective big time. None of the current Knick players' +/- numbers should be taken very seriously at all, unless you think Ariza can maintain his +42.1 and blow previous leaders out of the water. On Indiana, Artest is +73.6 right now and Croshere is +39.3. So don't get too carried away with these numbers; right now they are not at all reliable indicators of how things will turn out. So we can immediately rule out ideas along the lines of "this guy has so-and-so +/- after 3 games, therefore he should (or should not) be seeing more playing time."

- Finally, a crucially important thing to bear in mind is that these +/- numbers do not solely reflect an individual player's contributions or detractions. For instance, Ariza's +42.1 ranking is not a product of just Ariza's play, but rather of Ariza's play combined with the combinations of other 4 players he's been out on the court with. In fact, a lot of Ariza's high +/- is probably just due to the fact that he's played a lot of his minutes with the rookies, who have been great.

Likewise, just because the team has not rebounded well when Antonio Davis has been on the court does not imply that Davis is a terrible rebounder. It could be that Davis has in fact been a strong rebounder for us but that thus far he has just spent most of his court time with guys who aren't strong on the boards. If that were the case, the net effect of having an overall poor rebounding team would overwhelm any positive contributions Davis has made on the glass.
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fishmike
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11/8/2005  6:33 PM
Posted by rvhoss:

I still don't understand
yea... we pretty much get that


"winning is more fun... then fun is fun" -Thibs
Solace
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11/8/2005  6:42 PM
Posted by islesfan:

But yet you made such a big deal about Big Stiff's 12 good playoff games out of the hundreds NBA games that he's played.

As Solace would say: You're pwned.

How quickly pwned has caught on.

Well, let's put it this way, a few games matter to some posters when it favors their argument. Otherwise, it's irrelevant. I won't name names (and I'm not talking about Fish, who is just presenting stats and not using it to win an argument), but we all know certain people who do this.

Wishing everyone well. I enjoyed posting here for a while, but as I matured I realized this forum isn't for me. We all evolve. Thanks for the memories everyone.
fishmike
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11/8/2005  8:19 PM
Tom!!! finally BB chat! Thanks for the good response. A couple of things
- It's already been mentioned but bears repeating: nothing really meaningful can be projected from these #s just yet. The sample size is very small and very biased.
I disagree for this reason. LB is playing so many players and guys have been pretty inconsistant, but there are some patterns that are hard to ignore. The thing that jumps out at me is the types of players at the top and bottom are very similar. Guys at the top in Ariza, Frye, Nate, Lee and Rose are all hustle guys and very active. They are always moving on offense and defense.
On the flip side the guys on the bottom in Curry, Q, AD and JJ are less active. Q is usually spotting up somewhere. When Curry has the ball everyone stops and watches. AD is a position rebounder and JJ... well we wont go there.

The two anomalies are Rose and Barnes. Now I think Barnes has really be hurt by his D; ie whoever he's guarding has done very well. Rose has simply played very hard and better than his stats would indicate. The game where he drew the 2 charges for one.

The big conclusion? Our guards. Crawford, Nate and Marbury are all better when surrounded by active players, and they are better on both sides of the ball. The lack of motion with the bottom guys takes away from their ability to find open guys, get offensive boards, crash the glass, fill the lane, get steals, etc.

when the Knicks are moving good things happen. The guys at the top move.

Just my take on that
"winning is more fun... then fun is fun" -Thibs
Bonn1997
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11/8/2005  8:50 PM
Posted by islesfan:
Posted by Bonn1997:
Posted by islesfan:
Posted by Bonn1997:
Posted by fishmike:
Posted by rvhoss:

So what's your point? AD getting 9 boards a game is meaningless?

I don't see the correlation.
Posted by fishmike:
Posted by Bonn1997:

These #s are quite unstable this early in the season. I'm sure they'll get much smaller but the point that the young guys are winners and the vets are losing games is clear.
hey you got it! Good boy
since we now have stats that prove the Knicks are horrible with AD in the line up what conclusion would you draw Einstien?
They hardly "prove" anything with a sample size of 3 games. I'm with you that Frye and Lee should be playing ahead of AD, though. I didn't need 82games.com to tell me that.

[Edited by - Bonn1997 on 11-08-2005 2:25 PM]


But yet you made such a big deal about Big Stiff's 12 good playoff games out of the hundreds NBA games that he's played.

As Solace would say: You're pwned.
I said he had nice #s in his 17 career playoff games. You can hardly say 17 games and 3 games are comparable samples sizes. I hope that even you wouldn't make that kind of stretch.


I bet you couldn't even type that with a straight face.
So you're seriously saying that a 17 game playoff sample and 3 game regular season sample are comparable? I'd love to hear you explain that one
knicks1248
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11/8/2005  9:02 PM
Posted by fishmike:

Tom!!! finally BB chat! Thanks for the good response. A couple of things
- It's already been mentioned but bears repeating: nothing really meaningful can be projected from these #s just yet. The sample size is very small and very biased.
I disagree for this reason. LB is playing so many players and guys have been pretty inconsistant, but there are some patterns that are hard to ignore. The thing that jumps out at me is the types of players at the top and bottom are very similar. Guys at the top in Ariza, Frye, Nate, Lee and Rose are all hustle guys and very active. They are always moving on offense and defense.
On the flip side the guys on the bottom in Curry, Q, AD and JJ are less active. Q is usually spotting up somewhere. When Curry has the ball everyone stops and watches. AD is a position rebounder and JJ... well we wont go there.

The two anomalies are Rose and Barnes. Now I think Barnes has really be hurt by his D; ie whoever he's guarding has done very well. Rose has simply played very hard and better than his stats would indicate. The game where he drew the 2 charges for one.

The big conclusion? Our guards. Crawford, Nate and Marbury are all better when surrounded by active players, and they are better on both sides of the ball. The lack of motion with the bottom guys takes away from their ability to find open guys, get offensive boards, crash the glass, fill the lane, get steals, etc.

when the Knicks are moving good things happen. The guys at the top move.

Just my take on that


I think thats pretty much evident Fish, it's very obvious with out even going into statistics.

The thing is no one should really be suprise at how bad our vets are playing. It's the reason they have been loosing there whole careers, simply because there a custom to playing a certain way. Hustling Has never been in Steph, Curry, or JC's Vocabulary let alone game.
ES
franco12
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11/8/2005  9:12 PM
Posted by knicks1248:
Posted by fishmike:

Tom!!! finally BB chat! Thanks for the good response. A couple of things
- It's already been mentioned but bears repeating: nothing really meaningful can be projected from these #s just yet. The sample size is very small and very biased.
I disagree for this reason. LB is playing so many players and guys have been pretty inconsistant, but there are some patterns that are hard to ignore. The thing that jumps out at me is the types of players at the top and bottom are very similar. Guys at the top in Ariza, Frye, Nate, Lee and Rose are all hustle guys and very active. They are always moving on offense and defense.
On the flip side the guys on the bottom in Curry, Q, AD and JJ are less active. Q is usually spotting up somewhere. When Curry has the ball everyone stops and watches. AD is a position rebounder and JJ... well we wont go there.

The two anomalies are Rose and Barnes. Now I think Barnes has really be hurt by his D; ie whoever he's guarding has done very well. Rose has simply played very hard and better than his stats would indicate. The game where he drew the 2 charges for one.

The big conclusion? Our guards. Crawford, Nate and Marbury are all better when surrounded by active players, and they are better on both sides of the ball. The lack of motion with the bottom guys takes away from their ability to find open guys, get offensive boards, crash the glass, fill the lane, get steals, etc.

when the Knicks are moving good things happen. The guys at the top move.

Just my take on that


I think thats pretty much evident Fish, it's very obvious with out even going into statistics.

The thing is no one should really be suprise at how bad our vets are playing. It's the reason they have been loosing there whole careers, simply because there a custom to playing a certain way. Hustling Has never been in Steph, Curry, or JC's Vocabulary let alone game.


I'd expect Curry's numbers to improve if/when he starts playing with Frye, Lee & the better players- & works himself into shape.

Q is simply lost- at least we got Nate!
islesfan
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11/8/2005  10:49 PM
Posted by Bonn1997:
Posted by islesfan:
Posted by Bonn1997:
Posted by islesfan:
Posted by Bonn1997:
Posted by fishmike:
Posted by rvhoss:

So what's your point? AD getting 9 boards a game is meaningless?

I don't see the correlation.
Posted by fishmike:
Posted by Bonn1997:

These #s are quite unstable this early in the season. I'm sure they'll get much smaller but the point that the young guys are winners and the vets are losing games is clear.
hey you got it! Good boy
since we now have stats that prove the Knicks are horrible with AD in the line up what conclusion would you draw Einstien?
They hardly "prove" anything with a sample size of 3 games. I'm with you that Frye and Lee should be playing ahead of AD, though. I didn't need 82games.com to tell me that.

[Edited by - Bonn1997 on 11-08-2005 2:25 PM]


But yet you made such a big deal about Big Stiff's 12 good playoff games out of the hundreds NBA games that he's played.

As Solace would say: You're pwned.
I said he had nice #s in his 17 career playoff games. You can hardly say 17 games and 3 games are comparable samples sizes. I hope that even you wouldn't make that kind of stretch.


I bet you couldn't even type that with a straight face.
So you're seriously saying that a 17 game playoff sample and 3 game regular season sample are comparable? I'd love to hear you explain that one


You just don't know when to leave things alone do you Bonnie? I wasn't going to push it further but fine.

17 (and it's probably not that high but I'll give it to you) games out of 294 games is 5.7%

3 out of 82 is 3.6

Yeah, 2.1% is such a HUGE difference. And that's assuming that he played that well in 17 games but like I said, I'll give it to you.

Pwned indeed.
If it didn’t work in Phoenix with Nash and Stoutamire... it’s just not a winning formula. It’s an entertaining formula, but not a winning one. - Derek Harper talking about D'Antoni's System
islesfan
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11/8/2005  11:31 PM
BTW, I never said that a 3 game sample was enough to judge anything by so please stop making things up. Tell me where I said that in this thread? I was pointing out what a hypocrite you are seeing how you've based your opinions on a small sample size in the past. The only way you could draw that conclusion would be if I agreed with you that 17 playoff games were a large enough sample to draw a conclusion, the way you and your Master Isiah did, but I sure as hell didn't.

I'm not the one using samples that small to judge anything, you are with your precious 17 playoff games. But the vast majority of the 297 games that he's played so far is a pretty good sample and that's what I've always based my opinion of the Big Stiff on.

[Edited by - islesfan on 11-08-2005 11:36 PM]
If it didn’t work in Phoenix with Nash and Stoutamire... it’s just not a winning formula. It’s an entertaining formula, but not a winning one. - Derek Harper talking about D'Antoni's System
Bonn1997
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11/9/2005  8:28 AM
Posted by islesfan:
Posted by Bonn1997:
Posted by islesfan:
Posted by Bonn1997:
Posted by islesfan:
Posted by Bonn1997:
Posted by fishmike:
Posted by rvhoss:

So what's your point? AD getting 9 boards a game is meaningless?

I don't see the correlation.
Posted by fishmike:
Posted by Bonn1997:

These #s are quite unstable this early in the season. I'm sure they'll get much smaller but the point that the young guys are winners and the vets are losing games is clear.
hey you got it! Good boy
since we now have stats that prove the Knicks are horrible with AD in the line up what conclusion would you draw Einstien?
They hardly "prove" anything with a sample size of 3 games. I'm with you that Frye and Lee should be playing ahead of AD, though. I didn't need 82games.com to tell me that.

[Edited by - Bonn1997 on 11-08-2005 2:25 PM]


But yet you made such a big deal about Big Stiff's 12 good playoff games out of the hundreds NBA games that he's played.

As Solace would say: You're pwned.
I said he had nice #s in his 17 career playoff games. You can hardly say 17 games and 3 games are comparable samples sizes. I hope that even you wouldn't make that kind of stretch.


I bet you couldn't even type that with a straight face.
So you're seriously saying that a 17 game playoff sample and 3 game regular season sample are comparable? I'd love to hear you explain that one


You just don't know when to leave things alone do you Bonnie? I wasn't going to push it further but fine.

17 (and it's probably not that high but I'll give it to you) games out of 294 games is 5.7%

3 out of 82 is 3.6

Yeah, 2.1% is such a HUGE difference. And that's assuming that he played that well in 17 games but like I said, I'll give it to you.

Pwned indeed.
Dividing one # by 82 and the other by 294 obscures the fact that 17 playoff games are still a much larger sample to go by than 3 regular season games. The 17 games were also the 17 biggest ones of his career (b/c they're playoff games) and should have greater weight than any individual regular season games.
islesfan
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11/9/2005  9:42 AM
What else are you going to divide them by??? You and Isiah were using 17 games out of 294 to judge whether or not the Big Stiff was worth that contract. And now you're saying that 3 games into a season (82 games) isn't a large enough sample to judge anything by. What other numbers are you looking to use incorrectly in order to make you not look like a hypocrite?

LOL Now we're going to give weight to the games? Whatever it takes, huh Bonnie? I guess if you're going to weigh anything it might as well be that 300+lb stiff.
If it didn’t work in Phoenix with Nash and Stoutamire... it’s just not a winning formula. It’s an entertaining formula, but not a winning one. - Derek Harper talking about D'Antoni's System
tomverve
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11/9/2005  9:59 AM
Posted by fishmike:

I disagree for this reason. LB is playing so many players and guys have been pretty inconsistant, but there are some patterns that are hard to ignore. The thing that jumps out at me is the types of players at the top and bottom are very similar. Guys at the top in Ariza, Frye, Nate, Lee and Rose are all hustle guys and very active. They are always moving on offense and defense.
On the flip side the guys on the bottom in Curry, Q, AD and JJ are less active. Q is usually spotting up somewhere. When Curry has the ball everyone stops and watches. AD is a position rebounder and JJ... well we wont go there.


I agree that there is good reason to think our better lineups are the ones with the young active guys up front, even if many things can change in the coming months. In fact, I would say that most of the guys who are currently yielding net +s on the court will continue to do so for the rest of the season. But that's a pretty modest prediction. These +/- numbers are going to continue to fluctuate wildly throughout the early season. Certainly all the rooks and young guys who are posting 20+ and up numbers are going to come back down to earth; some guys who are currently + may wind up being - (like say Rose); and some guys who are currently - will become +s (hopefully Curry and Jamal). So in general, I'd agree that many of the net +s and net -s will probably remain net +s and -s (especially the ones with the higher magnitudes), but at this point we really can't say anything meanigful about what the magnitudes of those +s and -s will end up being in the long term. In other words, even at this early stage we probably have a pretty good idea of who is going to help us and who is going to hurt us in the long run, but we can't really yet say how much any given player is going to help or hurt.

[Edited by - tomverve on 11-09-2005 10:01 AM]
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OMG.. these #'s are INSANE

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