Posted by tomverve:


Agreed, that is a good point. However, there have been studies that have indicated that the effect of context on a player's production, on average, might not be as significant as one might think. For instance, IIRC, players to to maintain or even increase their statistical outputs per-minute or possession when they get increased minutes, and players who have been drafted by expansion teams (entailing a drastically different context and role for the player in most cases), on average, put up stats quite comparable with ones they have previously recorded. I don't recall offhand where I've seen those studies but if you're interested I could try digging them up.

A big question is to what extent usage rate impacts a player's offensive stats. That is a tricky issue and I don't think there are yet any really conclusive studies.

The impact of distinct team situations on a player's performance is obviously related to the "dominance" of the particular player, parity of talent level on the two teams and the flexibility of the respective team coaches. For most players, I would a priori assume that context significantly affects individual production -- although I would be interested in looking at your data. I am inclined to attribute a shift in indiviudual production to two broad categories, the first quantitative and the second more subjective -- 1) a difference in usage rate (to which you previously referred) and 2) is the player being used but used differently - for instance, is Lamar Odom playing a greater percentage of minutes as a "point-forward" instead of the conventional low post small-forward? How does this affect a) plays run though him and b) shot attempts? Which position is he primarily guarding?

The ultimately even more difficult aspect is gauging team production - since the change in context for the individual player may involve additional changes in team context -- making it difficult to determine a baseline. I'll stick with the Odom example since he has remained with the same team and his shifting role during the game makes for an interesting dynamic. Here, Odom plays stretches at point when Smush Parker is benched. Naturally, this results in a shuffle at 1 and the 3 for the Lakers. Since Odom can't play the 1 and the 3 simultaneously, differences in team +/- statistics are not effectively controlled in the scientific sense. The tumult in context is further exacerbated by further second unit substitutions on both squads. You can then imagine that +/- team contributions of a player become next to impossible after trades since the context is exchanged wholesale. Clearly, a greater emphasis on direct observation becomes necessary here.

Posted by codeunknown:

Posted by KnickerBlogger:

Posted by codeunknown:

For example, the offensive rebounding statistic is obviously influenced by the number of taken 3 pointers, which result in long rebounds. Thus, offensive rebounding after either a 2 or 3 point shot might be an interesting statistic to keep.

IIRC, someone did a study on this in one of the APBRmetrics boards & found that offensive rebounding is not affected by three point shots. In other words, if you take a three pointer, you don't have a better chance at getting the rebound. This is why our motto at CTN is "basketball analysis beyond conventional wisdom." Conventional wisdom says you have a better chance of getting an offensive rebound off of 3 pointers, but no one ever thought to test it out before passing it on as wisdom.

Conventional wisdom can derive from inflated myth or sound logic. And surely you realize that the logic behind the increased chance of getting an offensive rebound after a 3 pointer, considering offensive/defensive position, is sound. Was the analysis restricted to half-court sets? Were their differences in the offensive or defensive frontcourts make-up during the 2-point and 3-point trials? How many missed shots were tabulated? I won't argue with your empirical data until I see it but I will say that your results are surprisingly.

It doesn't seem inconceivable that this could be true. Maybe long rebounds are harder to get back because it takes the offense's best rebounders out of the picture as well. Guards aren't always rushing down the court for a fast break in the NBA, because if the shot hits, they have to bring the ball up the court.

The study was done some time ago, and I never have luck using the search feature on those boards. Maybe you could verify this by checking the OREB/DREB ratio of guards?