Posted by tomverve:
For instance, consider that if we are roughly a .500 team this season (~40-43 wins), then in all likelihood we will come out of those 15 games with a record below .500. Reasoning is simple: If we're roughly .500, then we'll probably be above .500 at home and below .500 by the same amount on the road. So if we're basically a .300-.400 road team this season, then the simple law of averages predicts a losing record for those road games, which comprise 2/3 of the first 15 games.
Predicting something like 9-6 I'd say is very optimistic, probably a best case scenario that is very unlikely to unfold. And if you count on the best case scenario to happen and say that the team *should* live up to it, well, you're just setting yourself up for disappointment and doom-saying.
[Edited by - tomverve on 10-23-2005 10:45 PM]
The last few years , I dont even think I predicted as well as 6-9 going the other way, I think I was more 4-11 etc... I feel good about this team, we have a lot of beef inside we can rotate, I think Frye can be a real impact contributor on the offensive end and we have a bevy of guards. We are mising a 6-7 guy who can shoot the ball and bring it off the dribble a bit, but we can throw out some nice packages. 9-6 against these squads I think is reasonable, doomsaying would be a 4-11--if we are going to be a playoff team, there are games in here we should win
