thats a crazy prediction.. KT is not one of the best PF in the game and KT is not an allstar. By him getting those #s, he would be both.
Improbable? Probably. Unlikely? Likely. But not Crazy:
Kurt Thomas:
CAREER AVERAGES
REBOUNDS PER GAME
YEAR TEAM G GS MPG FG% 3P% FT% OFF DEF RPG APG SPG BPG TO PF PPG
95-96 MIA 74 42 22.4 .501 .000 .663 1.6 4.3 5.9 .6 .64 .49 1.32 3.70 9.0
96-97 MIA 18 9 20.8 .371 .000 .761 1.7 4.2 5.9 .5 .67 .50 1.39 3.70 6.3
96-97 -- 18 9 20.8 .371 .000 .761 1.7 4.2 5.9 .5 .67 .50 1.39 3.70 6.3
97-98 DAL 5 0 14.6 .378 .000 1.000 1.6 3.2 4.8 .6 .20 .00 2.00 3.80 7.4
98-99 NYK 50 44 23.6 .462 .000 .611 1.6 4.1 5.7 1.1 .90 .34 1.46 3.20 8.1
99-00 NYK 80 21 24.6 .505 .333 .781 1.8 4.5 6.3 1.0 .64 .53 1.31 3.50 8.0
00-01 NYK 77 29 27.6 .511 .333 .814 2.2 4.5 6.7 .8 .79 .90 1.29 3.70 10.4
01-02 NYK 82 82 33.8 .494 .167 .815 2.6 6.5 9.1 1.1 .87 .96 1.87 4.20 13.9
02-03 NYK 81 81 31.8 .483 .667 .750 2.0 5.9 7.9 2.0 1.00 1.20 1.70 4.20 14.0
03-04 NYK 80 75 31.9 .473 .000 .835 1.8 6.5 8.3 1.9 .70 1.00 1.65 3.70 11.1
04-05 NYK 80 80 35.7 .471 .500 .786 2.1 8.3 10.4 2.0 .88 .99 1.24 3.90 11.5
Career 627 463 28.9 .484 .269 .764 2.0 5.6 7.6 1.3 .79 .80 1.49 3.80 10.8
Playoff 48 24 22.0 .442 .000 .725 1.8 4.0 5.8 .6 .60 .56 1.19 3.70 6.5
So we see that KT would have to raise his career average in rebounds by about 2.5, but actually he averaged slightly over 10 rebounds last year, so guessing 10 this year is hardly a stretch. Therefore, I don't think that number is what you think is crazy.
You are reacting more to the prediction of 18 points per game. Of course, 18 is a whole number and I might be off by a couple of points. I see that as his outside cap for point production this year. What I mean to get across is that KT will significantly raise his average and he will have the proverbial "career season".
If that makes him an all-star remains to be seen. I have seen players with better numbers than what I predicted get snubbed for players with worse numbers. Maybe you just can't see KT as an all-star? Check back on previous all-star rosters and you will see all sorts of players that have career seasons and get 1 all-star game: Dana Barros, John Starks, Anthony mason, Charles Oakley, Juwan Howard, Tom Gugliotta, and Christian Laetner, off the top of my head.
As a matter of fact KT averaged 13.9 and 14.0 very recently, and that was with very poor teams where he was far from the offensive focus!
Add in a theory I will borrow from fishmike: KT was UTILIZED IMPROPERLY throughout his entire Knick career. The only time he was even played at true PF was at the very beginning when Ewing and Camby were there, and they were so frequently injured, he played center at least as much as forward. Once they were gone, he was the center. It was KT in post, and that is not the strong part of his offensive repetoire.
Now he will be in Phoenix, which had the best offense this previous season, has arguably the best point who is the also the reigning MVP, they have the brightest up and coming big man in the game in Stoudemire, and one of the premiere small forards in Marion.
So where does KT's points come from? Won't these guys score all the available buckets?
Nash and Marion are incredibly unselfish players, Stoudemire is not noticebly selfish or unselfish. KT will be the "safety valve" for those three dominant offensive players! This is the role that Joe Johnson played last year but refused to play this year. Joe Johnson averaged 17.1 as the number 4 option for the suns! So why wouldn't KT be likely to raise his average of 11.5 last year by a mere 3.5 points (For me to win my bet with Marv.)? He was the number 3-4 option last year too. Why wouldn't he get more shots, when the suns shoot more than the Knicks did? And wouldn't they frequently be better/easier shots? KT is already a career 48% shooter.
I think it is quite possible that KT's rebounds go DOWN this year because he will be shooting from the outside more and mixing it up on the offensive glass less. On the other hand, there will be many more possessions with the Sun's style so he may raise his rebound numbers.
oohah
[Edited by - oohah on 09-28-2005 01:35 AM]
9/27/2005 11:58 PM