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The Case for Willie Trill Cauley Stein
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mreinman
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6/8/2015  11:20 AM
blkexec wrote:
mreinman wrote:tristan thompson is a max money player and he has zero offensive game.

stein is all world offense compared to tristan

TT has less than zero game....it's terrible to watch him air ball a 2 foot hook shot. But thats another case where stats may not always show his value. And he's terrible guarding PnR.....His only true skill is offensive rebounds. I wouldn't say he's a max guy, but more power to him! I hope he gets his money, just not from us.

tristan brings so much to the game and he is gonna get paid

the point is, Stein can be miles better than tristan thompson

so here is what phil is thinking ....
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blkexec
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6/8/2015  11:33 AM
mreinman wrote:
blkexec wrote:
mreinman wrote:tristan thompson is a max money player and he has zero offensive game.

stein is all world offense compared to tristan

TT has less than zero game....it's terrible to watch him air ball a 2 foot hook shot. But thats another case where stats may not always show his value. And he's terrible guarding PnR.....His only true skill is offensive rebounds. I wouldn't say he's a max guy, but more power to him! I hope he gets his money, just not from us.

tristan brings so much to the game and he is gonna get paid

the point is, Stein can be miles better than tristan thompson

agree....WCS can be and should be better than TT.

I disagree that TT is a max player. But thats my own issue with maxing out guys. I don't think Melo should be maxed out....Same with Bosh. But thats not the point.

I agree with you on WCS....and if TT is a high value player, then WCS should have the same high value.

Will WCS rebound like Tristan Thompson? TT is very strong on the block, and knows how to use his strength to create space. I'm not sure if WCS will do that kind of rebounding, but he does so much more than TT (or thats my predictions when he enters the NBA).

So if anybody likes TT's game....they should also respect WCS game......Both add value without adding much to the offensive end, as far as scoring buckets. Both are offensive rebounders. WCS is younger and already ahead of TT with his guard like defense. But we will see. The NBA is different from college.

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anrst
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6/8/2015  11:42 AM
at #4, i'd rather have Winslow. At least he can contribute on both ends. the only highlights i've seen of WCS are wide open dunks.
WaltLongmire
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6/8/2015  11:58 AM
BRIGGS wrote:
WaltLongmire wrote:Given Stein's age compared to the younger prospects, and his lack of significant improvement over 3 years at the most consistently successful team in college, you have to be careful when talking about "potential."

Bonn1997 is right about Towns- if he had stayed in college for 3 years, his stat line showed no improvement, and his coach did not expand his role on the team, he would not be the probable #1 pick in this draft.

You can hide behind the "potential" curtain if you are a one and done player, but how do you do that with someone in Stein's situation.

Kaminsky wouldn't be a late 2nd, or undrafted FA, if he had come out after his first season.

Nobody finds little known prospects like Briggs, and Kaminsky was at a major school. Anyone remember Briggs threads touting Kaminsky when he was a freshman? A sophomore? Probably not...because he only played 8MPG as a freshman, and about 10MPG as a sophomore. He improved his game each year, though, and his college success needs no description here.

If Stein had showed the same kind of improvement as Kaminsky, he would be an easy pick at 4, and maybe a top 1-3 pick, but he did not, so all you have to do is go by that old stand-by, "potential."

There are seniors I never hear of until the end of their careers. There is 375 teams in div 1 and 4000+ players. I didnt know who Kaminsky was until the 4th game of his junior year. I imagine when he is lost in the NBA by defenders he will have a few games like that--but will add the rebounds and assist.

I know its hard- hell, I depend on guys like you to give me people to look at.

No criticism...just trying to make a point that Kaminsky did nothing special that would cause a guy searching for talent like you are to notice him, yet he continued to improve his body and game to the point where you could not help but notice him.

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nixluva
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6/8/2015  12:04 PM
WaltLongmire wrote:
nixluva wrote:Just think about this, WCS on a loaded team was not needed on offense but still ended up a top player based mostly on his D. WCS ended up just 1.3 behind Kaminsky! So how does that happen? You have to be stellar defensively. How likely is it that with higher usage that WCS can up his offensive production? I'd say it's pretty likely. WCS will always bring his great defensive gifts. If he adds even a little more scoring you're talking about an All Star.

WCS isn't a guy with no talent. He's shown flashes of offense but hasn't consistently been aggressive. It may not have been all his fault. Just go look at the UK offense and how they had WCS playing on Offense. It's not that great. Not to mention the college game has less space to begin with. The floor will be more spaced for WCS in the NBA.

Folks who are not enthralled with taking Stein at #4 have never said he's untalented and without value, and they understand but don't overestimate his defensive value, yet they don't discount his limitations (especially on offense), a disquieting lack of progress as a player during his 3 years at KU, and Calipari's decision not to increase his role in the offense despite coaching him for 3 years.

Take a look at the guys picked 1-10 in the draft over the past years and please point out to everyone all Bigs who came into the league with questionable and unproven offensive skills and transformed their offensive games to the point where they are now, on a regular basis, doing things in the NBA that they never did in college.

Potential is a potent aphrodisiac for GMs come draft time, but the NBA graveyard is full of bigs whose "offense needs some work" and guys with "superior athleticism" who are chosen with the expectation they will do things in the NBA that they didn't do at the previous level they played at.

The offense Jackson wants to run calls for big men with the type of skills and decision making WCS did not show in 3 years at a great college BB program. Stein had his "audition" at KU and had a good chance to showcase his skills, and he showed his limitations. Calipari gave Stein a role he could handle, and one that probably masked many of his weaknesses.

Segal, Van Damme, Norris, and Schwarzenegger have all had memorable screen roles in the movies, and you might even enjoy what they've done, but none of them are getting called in to audition for Shakespeare in the Park, no matter how many acting classes you send them to.


IMO this is a flawed way of looking at it. You can't assume that a player "can't" do something until you personally check to see if he has the raw ability to actually do it. IMO i've seen enough of WCS actually executing offense to tell that he has the raw talent to actually learn and execute offensive moves. It's not like he "never" showed offensive ability.

WCS was inconsistent with his offense, but he had games where he did show he could score. He was obviously very raw and lacking in technique, but that is something he can learn and he already looks much better since he's been working on his offense. People are assuming that what they saw in his workout video isn't progress. IMO he does look better than he did earlier in the season. These kids are finally able to get the best training and 100% focus on improving their skills. What WCS is right now is not necessarily what he'll be down the line after much more training.


WCS is now noticeably bigger and his movement looks much better and more confident. He looks timid and unsure in college but now he looks much more sure of how he needs to move. This is not just a workout illusion.


"I thought he was really impressive," said DraftExpress.com's Jonathan Givony, one of the few analysts invited to the workout. "I came away pleasantly surprised."

A DraftExpress scouting breakdown earlier this year mentioned the former Wildcat's shooting stroke as a "strength" to his game, even if UK fans rarely got to see it outside of pregame warm-ups.

So Givony knew Cauley-Stein could shoot. He just didn't know he could shoot like he did Monday, when he was draining jumpers from all over the floor in a variety of ways.

"Just to see him knocking down three-pointer after three-pointer — that I wasn't really prepared for," he said.

It will be a comforting thought for whichever team selects Cauley-Stein in the NBA Draft. His showing in Monday's workout won't change the immediate expectations, which are almost entirely on the defensive end. But it did prove there could be more to Cauley-Stein's game down the road.

"There's a difference between hitting that shot by yourself in a gym and doing it in a game with a defender on you and all that pressure," Givony said. "But that's how guys become shooters. They work on it by themselves, and they get more comfortable with it in the game setting. I think what this means to me is that he has the potential to develop into that."

WaltLongmire
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6/8/2015  12:06 PM
blkexec wrote:
mreinman wrote:tristan thompson is a max money player and he has zero offensive game.

stein is all world offense compared to tristan

TT has less than zero game....it's terrible to watch him air ball a 2 foot hook shot. But thats another case where stats may not always show his value. And he's terrible guarding PnR.....His only true skill is offensive rebounds. I wouldn't say he's a max guy, but more power to him! I hope he gets his money, just not from us.


JVG made a comment about TT getting his money (contract) but then commented that Thompson was in the perfect situation for him, without really getting into what he was talking about.

Small for a PF, not a great shot blocker, no game in the post, no jump shot, worthy of a hack a TT foul, and a poor passer.

His contract negotiations should be interesting- It will be fascinating to see if anyone offers him a max contract.

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crzymdups
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6/8/2015  12:16 PM
Someone in another thread just mentioned that Stein is repped by CAA. We know Melo and NYK love their CAA.
¿ △ ?
nixluva
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6/8/2015  12:28 PM
crzymdups wrote:Someone in another thread just mentioned that Stein is repped by CAA. We know Melo and NYK love their CAA.

WCS agent is Rich Kleiman of RocNation. I don't know if they're connected to CAA.

http://rocnation.com/sports/willie-cauley-stein/

TPercy
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6/8/2015  12:48 PM
I'm so infatuted with Cauley Stein after watching his workout video. His off the dribble shots are pointless because he will never be able to do that in a game, but still. If he can stretch the floor and shoot 3s like he did then that is perfect.
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Ilovestarks
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6/8/2015  12:51 PM
Have you noticrd that all our potential #4s have a shooting issue?
earthmansurfer
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6/8/2015  12:57 PM
If he can shoot like in the video (and we all know he is a world class defender), then you have to look at him. Other teams in workouts are going to see the same thing so he will move up.
My question though, is can he score around the basket without dunking it. Can he shoot in that short zone, cause he will be there a lot and not be able to dunk.
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Uptown
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6/8/2015  12:58 PM
Ilovestarks wrote:Have you noticrd that all our potential #4s have a shooting issue?

Of course, thats what happens when you fall out of the top 3. You have to pick the best of the rest...

mreinman
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6/8/2015  1:00 PM
earthmansurfer wrote:If he can shoot like in the video (and we all know he is a world class defender), then you have to look at him. Other teams in workouts are going to see the same thing so he will move up.
My question though, is can he score around the basket without dunking it. Can he shoot in that short zone, cause he will be there a lot and not be able to dunk.

some determined that towns will be the best shooting big man of all time from his (edited) video

why can we extrapolate from WCS's video that he at least can be a good shooting big?

so here is what phil is thinking ....
crzymdups
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6/8/2015  1:01 PM
earthmansurfer wrote:If he can shoot like in the video (and we all know he is a world class defender), then you have to look at him. Other teams in workouts are going to see the same thing so he will move up.
My question though, is can he score around the basket without dunking it. Can he shoot in that short zone, cause he will be there a lot and not be able to dunk.

He showed a decent hook shot in some post ups in game action for Kentucky this season - at least until Towns overtook him as KU's number one post option.

I think WCS was probably held back or held into a smaller role at KU because Cal was sort of beholden to feature Noel, Randle and Towns. He gets those top top top recruits because he promises to develop and showcase them. So a guy like Stein, who wasn't the biggest blue chip prospect gets put into a role. Like Lyles did, like the Harrison boys, etc. All those guys scored about 10ppg at Kentucky - if they went to smaller programs they maybe could've put up 20ppg with more touches

¿ △ ?
nixluva
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6/8/2015  1:10 PM
crzymdups wrote:
earthmansurfer wrote:If he can shoot like in the video (and we all know he is a world class defender), then you have to look at him. Other teams in workouts are going to see the same thing so he will move up.
My question though, is can he score around the basket without dunking it. Can he shoot in that short zone, cause he will be there a lot and not be able to dunk.

He showed a decent hook shot in some post ups in game action for Kentucky this season - at least until Towns overtook him as KU's number one post option.

I think WCS was probably held back or held into a smaller role at KU because Cal was sort of beholden to feature Noel, Randle and Towns. He gets those top top top recruits because he promises to develop and showcase them. So a guy like Stein, who wasn't the biggest blue chip prospect gets put into a role. Like Lyles did, like the Harrison boys, etc. All those guys scored about 10ppg at Kentucky - if they went to smaller programs they maybe could've put up 20ppg with more touches

Great points! This is why the Knicks actually went to the Kentucky practices to see more of what these players could do. The way Calipari does things has an impact on his players ability to show what they can do. You pack that many players on a team and then run a platoon, it's gonna be hard to really feature a player.

This is not to say that WCS has all the offensive technique down pat. He clearly needed to work on his skills. I think what his workout video shows is that he's more than capable of executing offensively. He can handle enough, moves well, with great footwork, shoots with touch and has a smooth release. He clearly can shoot the ball. Now he has to keep refining his game and put it to use in games. That will come with reps.

WaltLongmire
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6/8/2015  2:07 PM
crzymdups wrote:
earthmansurfer wrote:If he can shoot like in the video (and we all know he is a world class defender), then you have to look at him. Other teams in workouts are going to see the same thing so he will move up.
My question though, is can he score around the basket without dunking it. Can he shoot in that short zone, cause he will be there a lot and not be able to dunk.

He showed a decent hook shot in some post ups in game action for Kentucky this season - at least until Towns overtook him as KU's number one post option.

I think WCS was probably held back or held into a smaller role at KU because Cal was sort of beholden to feature Noel, Randle and Towns. He gets those top top top recruits because he promises to develop and showcase them. So a guy like Stein, who wasn't the biggest blue chip prospect gets put into a role. Like Lyles did, like the Harrison boys, etc. All those guys scored about 10ppg at Kentucky - if they went to smaller programs they maybe could've put up 20ppg with more touches


So what you are saying is that Calipari does not care if his teams lose, as long as he develops the guys he is beholden to, even though he has a guy -Stein- on his team, who some of you Steinies are almost making out to be a Ewing in the rough. Why not show loyalty to a guy whose been on your team for 3 years??

Why has his name never come up as being a potential top 3 pick over the last months? With the way he is being described by people here, he should be a top 2 pick, for goodness sake.

Towns, OK4, Russell, Mudiay, Winslow, and Porzingis have all been thrown out as potential top 3 picks, but WCS is never mentioned. Hey, he's an elite defender who some of you are now saying will make 3s and other shots in the NBA...even though he never made a 3 in his entire college career.

This is the most frustrating thread to write on, because it is hard to argue against taking a player who is being guaranteed by some to be able to do things he never did in games over a 3 year college career.


Still amazed that Wisconsin had the guts to even show up vs KU. Might have been the reason Stein was so underwhelming that game- perhaps he was expecting Wisconsin to forfeit and wasn't ready for actual competition.


Once again- show me the bigs drafted 1-10 with his kind of limited offense who have morphed into solid and dependable players on offense...please.

Can Stein be the exception? Maybe...but that is not what history tells us, and unlike many of the kids being drafted, Stein is a physically mature 3 year college player who has played with, and against, the best competition college has to offer, without his game showing any appreciable alteration from his freshman year.

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nixluva
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6/8/2015  2:16 PM
USA Today's most recent Mock

Round 1

1. T'Wolves: Jahlil Okafor, C Duke
HT: 6'11" | WT: 270 lbs | AGE: 19
Karl-Anthony Towns has his share of supporters within the Minnesota front office, but Flip Saunders, the one who matters the most, may be leaning towards Okafor. There's still plenty of time for this pick to go in either direction.


2. Lakers: Karl-Anthony Towns, C Kentucky
HT: 6'11" | WT: 250 lbs | AGE: 19
The Lakers will take a look at D'Angelo Russell and Emmanuel Mudiay here as well, and the pick could get interesting if Towns goes No. 1. If Towns falls to No. 2, however, the decision should be a relatively easy one for the Lakers.


3. 76ers: D'Angelo Russell, G Ohio State
HT: 6'5" | WT: 180 lbs | AGE: 19
Some league executives think Russell could be the best prospect in the draft, and he also fits a position and skill-set the Sixers desperately need.


4. Knicks: Willie Cauley-Stein, C Kentucky
HT: 7'0" | WT: 240 lbs | AGE: 21
The more time goes by, the more the Knicks become a wildcard in this draft. While the possibility of the Knicks trading out of the fourth pick remains ever looming, Cauley-Stein appears to be gaining traction within the Knicks front office.


http://sportswire.usatoday.com/2015/06/08/2015-nba-mock-draft-10-0-minnesota-timberwolves-lottery-emanuel-mudiay-karl-anthony-towns-new-york-knicks-jahlil-okafor-frank-kaminsky-los-angeles-lakers-sam-dekker-boston-celtics-2/?utm_source=feedblitz&utm_medium=FeedBlitzRss&utm_campaign=usatodaycomnba-topstories

Other Sites have WCS at 5 or 6, so it's not really that far fetched at all that he could move up to #4.

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6/8/2015  2:24 PM
nixluva wrote:
BRIGGS wrote:
nixluva wrote:
codeunknown wrote:The isolated plus/minus stats that were displayed earlier in the thread depend heavily on the methodology. For example, a 4-man constant lineup normalization followed by a weighted utility (by minutes or position or otherwise) can actually skew the data further, accentuating style, coaching, sample size (as mentioned before) and mathematic modeling artifacts. Acquiring the above data for all team players in tandem to create "a plus-minus space" with iterative player assessment modulation is another way to do it. The lineups used are usually starter/bench stratified though and the value of going to these lengths is tough to say; it may not add too much. Regardless, its pretty dumb to get overly excited about these things without knowing the degree of uncertainty in the measurement, far be it the predictive value.

The "eye" test plus the stats on Stein leave me not very impressed at all as a #4 pick. Lower down 9-14ish, he would a decent pick-up from a probability standpoint, whether bust or stud.


Dude you can come up with all the counter arguments you like but in the end WCS comes up as a big time Prospect. A legit 7'er with ELITE length, quickness and athletic ability is no small thing. What he does for your defense is exactly what teams need now. He's a big who can defend PnR and still get back to the rim. He's so quick and big that he's never really too far from the basket and he's a willing help defender. The man just understands how to play TEAM DEFENSE at a high level.

You can't underestimate the impact that has on a team. We need to be looking to build a championship level defense. The best way to do that is to bring in a defensive anchor and build out from there. Let's remember that we still have a team to build and if you draft WCS then all your other decisions are easier to make. He's like bringing in Joakim Noah. You know you'll have a solid D and every additional quality defender you add will only make your defense stronger from there.

I'm talking about how you build a title contender. You do that with a core of great defense. You can always add scorers. Finding elite defenders who can lead to a championship level defense is much more difficult. I find it sad that I have to be the one trying to make the case for that on a Knicks forum of all places. Knicks fans that understand the importance of defense. Draft WCS and the search is over. you can add a few quality free agents to provide scoring and defense on the perimeter. Another big to rebound and score inside. It's a much simpler process if you draft WCS.

nixluva you keep saying hes an elite level player

Can you tell me about his passing ability? His ballhandling ability? Why he seems to be very indecisive with the ball in his hands? Why his in game jumpshot form changes on nearly every attempt? In his 3 year career he has 127 turnovers and 90 assists--for a negative ratio--for a guy who does not score or even touch the ball that much.

Lets get one thing straight, the reason you draft WCS is to build your team based on defense. If you want a great offensive player then you aren't going to be looking at WCS. I don't think the Knicks biggest need is another offensive weapon. Phil should build this team with a great defensive player at the core. Offense will come, but you must build a team based on defense.

Very few players if any would come to the Knicks knowing all the fundamentals needed to execute in the Triangle. Teams at the lower levels don't teach these things anymore. This is understood going into the draft. You seem to have a problem realizing that all of these flaws are things you can fix with coaching and a system where his role is more clearly defined. We won't be in any rush and WCS will be allowed time to master the fundamentals.

The Triangle is all about teaching your players the fundamentals of spacing, footwork and passing. WCS would learn how to make the proper pass and where to look for his teammates who are cutting and moving into his sight lines. It's the very core of the offense. WCS has never been that involved in an offensive game plan. It may take time for him to master these things but he will learn and grow as a player. They didn't run an offense like the Triangle at UK.


Briggs seems to be under the notion that what these kids are now as basketball players is what they'll be for their entire careers. So these 19/20 year old kids will never get better at what they're not good at now. WCS will never have a offense, Mudiay will never be able to shoot, OK4/Kaminsky will never have defense and so on, so what you get now is what you'll have in 2/3/4 years from now. Every single kid coming out of this draft can grow and get better in areas they aren't good at now. The trick is drafting the kids that will put the work in to get better and want to get better and if they put that work in then they'll be as good as they wanna be.
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6/8/2015  2:52 PM
newyorker4ever wrote:
Briggs seems to be under the notion that what these kids are now as basketball players is what they'll be for their entire careers. So these 19/20 year old kids will never get better at what they're not good at now. WCS will never have a offense, Mudiay will never be able to shoot, OK4/Kaminsky will never have defense and so on, so what you get now is what you'll have in 2/3/4 years from now. Every single kid coming out of this draft can grow and get better in areas they aren't good at now. The trick is drafting the kids that will put the work in to get better and want to get better and if they put that work in then they'll be as good as they wanna be.

Have to back Briggs on this- don't think he believes this. He, like anyone though, does look at certain things as being more important than others in evaluating players.

This is not brain science, and you've heard it before...you look at physical specs and athletic measurements, past performances in organized ball, especially if it is against significant competition, growth as a player if you have that kind of history to look at, specific stats that are revealing about the basic skills, and some of the specialized stats I get all fuzzy thinking about.

You are always trying to project based on what you are seeing and "measuring,"

I've been asking guys to look back in the draft and show me the bigs who had "red flag" offensive abilities (or lack of ability) and transformed their games to the point where they were not liabilities.

I'm also trying to work on something I am calling the "Popovich Challenge." Simply put, is this a player Pops would want on his team? Still have to work on it, but it is something to think about.

You might also have a Golden State Challenge at some point...but we will see how they do over the next few years.

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smackeddog
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6/8/2015  3:00 PM
Ilovestarks wrote:Have you noticrd that all our potential #4s have a shooting issue?

Yes, depressingly we have the 4th pick in a 3 man draft

The Case for Willie Trill Cauley Stein

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