Posted by GodSaveTheKnicks:
I am guilty of judging Hill a bust before I'd seen him really play.
Someone on the TWolves board declared you needed 2 years to judge a GM's offseason or drafts.
Sensible or crazy?
Just look at the history of the NBA. Every starter was a rookie at some point. If you go through the career stats of the average NBA starters they are all over the map. Some guys come in and do nothing for a few years and then blossom. Some guys have a steady progression forward. Some guys come in and do great the first couple years and then flame out. You can judge a guys current talent. But you can't predict how big the guys heart is, how hard he will work, how money will affect his work ethic, how well the coaches will be able to get through to a player, how life's events will affect him etc..........
There is no real way to predict. The only guys you can guess are the once in a life time talents like Lebron and Michael etc. The rest you really have to draft a guy with talent and hope he develops.
I'll give you an example: Cliff Robinson had unreal talent in college, but he had a reputation for being lazy, had a bad attitude and off and on motivation. He was predicted to go in the top 10 but ended up lasting until 36. When he retired he said(I'm paraphrasing):
"If I had been drafted number 1 and given a boatload of money who knows how my career would have ended up. 20 years?.........then he laughed"
Circumstances motivated him. You really can't tell how fast a player is going to pick up things, and what he will be as a player for at least 2 years, and with some it takes more.