nixluva wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:OK fair enough - but if it's isolating different possible lineup rotations, each of those is going to be based on a small sample of minutes or possessions. Many of the examples above are just a couple hundred possessions (comparable to about 2 nba games). This one stat is just not enough to tip the scale in Stein's favor IMO. If we can grab him at #25 (which I'm sure we can't), that would be great.

You're not looking at how he would impact the Knicks team defense. He is so big and long and quick that he by himself would make the defense much improved. If they add better perimeter defenders as Phil is looking to do, then you can build an elite defense. That has to be the goal. Build an Elite defense and the rest will be much easier.

IMO WCS's offense is right there on the edge of being something he can be reliable and consistent with. He's totally focused on it and you can see that his jump shot looks smooth with touch. He has the agility and coordination to make any kind of post moves. He will get better offensively. He's just a late bloomer but now he's focused on it.

nixluva wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

nixluva wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:OK fair enough - but if it's isolating different possible lineup rotations, each of those is going to be based on a small sample of minutes or possessions. Many of the examples above are just a couple hundred possessions (comparable to about 2 nba games). This one stat is just not enough to tip the scale in Stein's favor IMO. If we can grab him at #25 (which I'm sure we can't), that would be great.

You're not looking at how he would impact the Knicks team defense. He is so big and long and quick that he by himself would make the defense much improved. If they add better perimeter defenders as Phil is looking to do, then you can build an elite defense. That has to be the goal. Build an Elite defense and the rest will be much easier.

IMO WCS's offense is right there on the edge of being something he can be reliable and consistent with. He's totally focused on it and you can see that his jump shot looks smooth with touch. He has the agility and coordination to make any kind of post moves. He will get better offensively. He's just a late bloomer but now he's focused on it.

Sure, I'm well aware that that's the best case scenario but most of the stats don't indicate he is that productive or influential.

The stats don't tell the whole story. You seem to be assuming that WCS is all he'll ever be. I don't believe that's the case at all. I think he's on the cusp of becoming an Elite big man. There's literally nothing stopping him from being a 2 way player. He has the touch and agility to develop his offensive game. There's nothing hitchy about his movement in any way. Usually bigs like him may be clumsy when they move offensively but not WCS. He actually shows great coordination and agility. He just needs more reps working on his moves. His feet are quick and he has great body control. His shot isn't flat or broken in any way.

Go back and look at his workout video and watch his feet, movement and ball handling and how he finishes his moves. You won't see a player that has no shot at improving his offensive game.

Bonn1997 wrote:

nixluva wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

nixluva wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:OK fair enough - but if it's isolating different possible lineup rotations, each of those is going to be based on a small sample of minutes or possessions. Many of the examples above are just a couple hundred possessions (comparable to about 2 nba games). This one stat is just not enough to tip the scale in Stein's favor IMO. If we can grab him at #25 (which I'm sure we can't), that would be great.

You're not looking at how he would impact the Knicks team defense. He is so big and long and quick that he by himself would make the defense much improved. If they add better perimeter defenders as Phil is looking to do, then you can build an elite defense. That has to be the goal. Build an Elite defense and the rest will be much easier.

IMO WCS's offense is right there on the edge of being something he can be reliable and consistent with. He's totally focused on it and you can see that his jump shot looks smooth with touch. He has the agility and coordination to make any kind of post moves. He will get better offensively. He's just a late bloomer but now he's focused on it.

Sure, I'm well aware that that's the best case scenario but most of the stats don't indicate he is that productive or influential.

The stats don't tell the whole story. You seem to be assuming that WCS is all he'll ever be. I don't believe that's the case at all. I think he's on the cusp of becoming an Elite big man. There's literally nothing stopping him from being a 2 way player. He has the touch and agility to develop his offensive game. There's nothing hitchy about his movement in any way. Usually bigs like him may be clumsy when they move offensively but not WCS. He actually shows great coordination and agility. He just needs more reps working on his moves. His feet are quick and he has great body control. His shot isn't flat or broken in any way.

Go back and look at his workout video and watch his feet, movement and ball handling and how he finishes his moves. You won't see a player that has no shot at improving his offensive game.

Cusp? Potential?
I'm not using the 4th pick to draft guys based on things they haven't done. Cusp and potential are just fancy ways of saying the guy hasn't done much. Cusp and a quarter get you a gumball. I want someone with a compelling body of work. If we're trading way down for Stein, that's another story.

You could make the same arguments against Towns.

Player              G  MP   FG   FGA ▾   FG%  2P   2PA   2P%   3P   3PA   3P%   FT   FTA   FT%  TRB  AST  STL  BLK  TOV  PF   PTS
Karl-Anthony Towns  39 21.1 3.7  6.6    .566  3.7  6.4  .577   0.1  0.2   .250	2.8  3.4  .813  6.7  1.1  0.5  2.3  1.4  2.9  10.3
Willie Cauley-Stein 39 25.9 3.5  6.1    .572  3.5  6.1  .572   0.0  0.0   ---   2.0  3.3  .617	6.4  1.0  1.2  1.7  1.2  2.0  8.9

Bonn1997 wrote:

nixluva wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

nixluva wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

nixluva wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:OK fair enough - but if it's isolating different possible lineup rotations, each of those is going to be based on a small sample of minutes or possessions. Many of the examples above are just a couple hundred possessions (comparable to about 2 nba games). This one stat is just not enough to tip the scale in Stein's favor IMO. If we can grab him at #25 (which I'm sure we can't), that would be great.

You're not looking at how he would impact the Knicks team defense. He is so big and long and quick that he by himself would make the defense much improved. If they add better perimeter defenders as Phil is looking to do, then you can build an elite defense. That has to be the goal. Build an Elite defense and the rest will be much easier.

IMO WCS's offense is right there on the edge of being something he can be reliable and consistent with. He's totally focused on it and you can see that his jump shot looks smooth with touch. He has the agility and coordination to make any kind of post moves. He will get better offensively. He's just a late bloomer but now he's focused on it.

Sure, I'm well aware that that's the best case scenario but most of the stats don't indicate he is that productive or influential.

The stats don't tell the whole story. You seem to be assuming that WCS is all he'll ever be. I don't believe that's the case at all. I think he's on the cusp of becoming an Elite big man. There's literally nothing stopping him from being a 2 way player. He has the touch and agility to develop his offensive game. There's nothing hitchy about his movement in any way. Usually bigs like him may be clumsy when they move offensively but not WCS. He actually shows great coordination and agility. He just needs more reps working on his moves. His feet are quick and he has great body control. His shot isn't flat or broken in any way.

Go back and look at his workout video and watch his feet, movement and ball handling and how he finishes his moves. You won't see a player that has no shot at improving his offensive game.

Cusp? Potential?
I'm not using the 4th pick to draft guys based on things they haven't done. Cusp and potential are just fancy ways of saying the guy hasn't done much. Cusp and a quarter get you a gumball. I want someone with a compelling body of work. If we're trading way down for Stein, that's another story.

You could make the same arguments against Towns.

Player              G  MP   FG   FGA ▾   FG%  2P   2PA   2P%   3P   3PA   3P%   FT   FTA   FT%  TRB  AST  STL  BLK  TOV  PF   PTS
Karl-Anthony Towns  39 21.1 3.7  6.6    .566  3.7  6.4  .577   0.1  0.2   .250	2.8  3.4  .813  6.7  1.1  0.5  2.3  1.4  2.9  10.3
Willie Cauley-Stein 39 25.9 3.5  6.1    .572  3.5  6.1  .572   0.0  0.0   ---   2.0  3.3  .617	6.4  1.0  1.2  1.7  1.2  2.0  8.9

If Towns stayed in college 2 more years and put up those same #s as a junior, I wouldn't even consider drafting him at #4 - probably not even at 14. Yes, you could say I'm projecting growth but growth is a much more reasonable expectation from a freshman who has already been growing than from a junior who's been stuck for 3 years.

nixluva wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

nixluva wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

nixluva wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

nixluva wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:OK fair enough - but if it's isolating different possible lineup rotations, each of those is going to be based on a small sample of minutes or possessions. Many of the examples above are just a couple hundred possessions (comparable to about 2 nba games). This one stat is just not enough to tip the scale in Stein's favor IMO. If we can grab him at #25 (which I'm sure we can't), that would be great.

You're not looking at how he would impact the Knicks team defense. He is so big and long and quick that he by himself would make the defense much improved. If they add better perimeter defenders as Phil is looking to do, then you can build an elite defense. That has to be the goal. Build an Elite defense and the rest will be much easier.

IMO WCS's offense is right there on the edge of being something he can be reliable and consistent with. He's totally focused on it and you can see that his jump shot looks smooth with touch. He has the agility and coordination to make any kind of post moves. He will get better offensively. He's just a late bloomer but now he's focused on it.

Sure, I'm well aware that that's the best case scenario but most of the stats don't indicate he is that productive or influential.

The stats don't tell the whole story. You seem to be assuming that WCS is all he'll ever be. I don't believe that's the case at all. I think he's on the cusp of becoming an Elite big man. There's literally nothing stopping him from being a 2 way player. He has the touch and agility to develop his offensive game. There's nothing hitchy about his movement in any way. Usually bigs like him may be clumsy when they move offensively but not WCS. He actually shows great coordination and agility. He just needs more reps working on his moves. His feet are quick and he has great body control. His shot isn't flat or broken in any way.

Go back and look at his workout video and watch his feet, movement and ball handling and how he finishes his moves. You won't see a player that has no shot at improving his offensive game.

Cusp? Potential?
I'm not using the 4th pick to draft guys based on things they haven't done. Cusp and potential are just fancy ways of saying the guy hasn't done much. Cusp and a quarter get you a gumball. I want someone with a compelling body of work. If we're trading way down for Stein, that's another story.

You could make the same arguments against Towns.

Player              G  MP   FG   FGA ▾   FG%  2P   2PA   2P%   3P   3PA   3P%   FT   FTA   FT%  TRB  AST  STL  BLK  TOV  PF   PTS
Karl-Anthony Towns  39 21.1 3.7  6.6    .566  3.7  6.4  .577   0.1  0.2   .250	2.8  3.4  .813  6.7  1.1  0.5  2.3  1.4  2.9  10.3
Willie Cauley-Stein 39 25.9 3.5  6.1    .572  3.5  6.1  .572   0.0  0.0   ---   2.0  3.3  .617	6.4  1.0  1.2  1.7  1.2  2.0  8.9

If Towns stayed in college 2 more years and put up those same #s as a junior, I wouldn't even consider drafting him at #4 - probably not even at 14. Yes, you could say I'm projecting growth but growth is a much more reasonable expectation from a freshman who has already been growing than from a junior who's been stuck for 3 years.

Not every player develops at the same rate or in the same way. WCS is new to focusing on the offensive end. The Defense came more natural to him but he's not without the talent to actually improve. If you watch him you can see he has the ability to improve offensively. Kaminsky wasn't great early but his last 2 years he really came on. It could be the same for WCS.

smackeddog wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

nixluva wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

nixluva wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:OK fair enough - but if it's isolating different possible lineup rotations, each of those is going to be based on a small sample of minutes or possessions. Many of the examples above are just a couple hundred possessions (comparable to about 2 nba games). This one stat is just not enough to tip the scale in Stein's favor IMO. If we can grab him at #25 (which I'm sure we can't), that would be great.

You're not looking at how he would impact the Knicks team defense. He is so big and long and quick that he by himself would make the defense much improved. If they add better perimeter defenders as Phil is looking to do, then you can build an elite defense. That has to be the goal. Build an Elite defense and the rest will be much easier.

IMO WCS's offense is right there on the edge of being something he can be reliable and consistent with. He's totally focused on it and you can see that his jump shot looks smooth with touch. He has the agility and coordination to make any kind of post moves. He will get better offensively. He's just a late bloomer but now he's focused on it.

Sure, I'm well aware that that's the best case scenario but most of the stats don't indicate he is that productive or influential.

The stats don't tell the whole story. You seem to be assuming that WCS is all he'll ever be. I don't believe that's the case at all. I think he's on the cusp of becoming an Elite big man. There's literally nothing stopping him from being a 2 way player. He has the touch and agility to develop his offensive game. There's nothing hitchy about his movement in any way. Usually bigs like him may be clumsy when they move offensively but not WCS. He actually shows great coordination and agility. He just needs more reps working on his moves. His feet are quick and he has great body control. His shot isn't flat or broken in any way.

Go back and look at his workout video and watch his feet, movement and ball handling and how he finishes his moves. You won't see a player that has no shot at improving his offensive game.

Cusp? Potential?
I'm not using the 4th pick to draft guys based on things they haven't done. Cusp and potential are just fancy ways of saying the guy hasn't done much. Cusp and a quarter get you a gumball. I want someone with a compelling body of work. If we're trading way down for Stein, that's another story.

Like who? Time to step up and say who we should take

Bonn1997 wrote:

smackeddog wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

nixluva wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

nixluva wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:OK fair enough - but if it's isolating different possible lineup rotations, each of those is going to be based on a small sample of minutes or possessions. Many of the examples above are just a couple hundred possessions (comparable to about 2 nba games). This one stat is just not enough to tip the scale in Stein's favor IMO. If we can grab him at #25 (which I'm sure we can't), that would be great.

You're not looking at how he would impact the Knicks team defense. He is so big and long and quick that he by himself would make the defense much improved. If they add better perimeter defenders as Phil is looking to do, then you can build an elite defense. That has to be the goal. Build an Elite defense and the rest will be much easier.

IMO WCS's offense is right there on the edge of being something he can be reliable and consistent with. He's totally focused on it and you can see that his jump shot looks smooth with touch. He has the agility and coordination to make any kind of post moves. He will get better offensively. He's just a late bloomer but now he's focused on it.

Sure, I'm well aware that that's the best case scenario but most of the stats don't indicate he is that productive or influential.

The stats don't tell the whole story. You seem to be assuming that WCS is all he'll ever be. I don't believe that's the case at all. I think he's on the cusp of becoming an Elite big man. There's literally nothing stopping him from being a 2 way player. He has the touch and agility to develop his offensive game. There's nothing hitchy about his movement in any way. Usually bigs like him may be clumsy when they move offensively but not WCS. He actually shows great coordination and agility. He just needs more reps working on his moves. His feet are quick and he has great body control. His shot isn't flat or broken in any way.

Go back and look at his workout video and watch his feet, movement and ball handling and how he finishes his moves. You won't see a player that has no shot at improving his offensive game.

Cusp? Potential?
I'm not using the 4th pick to draft guys based on things they haven't done. Cusp and potential are just fancy ways of saying the guy hasn't done much. Cusp and a quarter get you a gumball. I want someone with a compelling body of work. If we're trading way down for Stein, that's another story.

Like who? Time to step up and say who we should take

Well I already had the trade out/trade down thread. I'm not crazy about any of the options at 4 but I'd probably go with Winslow or Kaminsky. I could understand the argument that we need a HR and it's worth gambling on Mudiay. I haven't completely ruled him out. If I had to pick right now I'd lean towards Winslow though.

I can understand a vote for Kaminsky. Dude had a great season. My problem with Kaminsky isn't that he's not a great player, but rather that we need what WCS does best more than what Kaminsky does best. We need to build a championship level defense. We can always pick up scoring. WCS is on the list almost entirely based on his defense. That's very telling. Any small improvement in his offense and you're talking about an elite player.

National Leaders - +/- Avg
Rank	Value	Player	             Yr	Ht	Wt	Gms	Team
1	16.8	Kevin Pangos	     Sr	6-2	182	38	Gonzaga
2	15.6	Frank Kaminsky	     Sr	7-0	242	39	Wisconsin
3	15.0	Gary Bell Jr.	     Sr	6-2	214	38	Gonzaga
4	14.7	Kyle Wiltjer	     Jr	6-10	240	38	Gonzaga
5	14.6	Tyus Jones	     Fr	6-1	190	39	Duke
6	14.3	Willie Cauley-Stein  Jr	7-0	240	39	Kentucky
7	14.1	Thomas Walkup	     Jr	6-4	195	34	Stephen F. Austin
7	14.1	Quinn Cook	     Sr	6-2	185	39	Duke
7	14.1	Tyler Ulis	     Fr	5-9	155	37	Kentucky
10	13.9	Aaron Harrison	     So	6-6	212	39	Kentucky
||
34	12.2	Delon Wright	     Sr	6-5	178	35	Utah
34	12.2	Pat Connaughton	     Sr	6-5	218	38	Notre Dame
34	12.2	Jerian Grant	     Sr	6-5	203	38	Notre Dame
34	12.2	Justise Winslow	     Fr	6-6	225	39	Duke
38	12.1	Peyton Aldridge	     Fr	6-7	205	32	Davidson
39	12.0	Jordan Woodard	     So	6-0	182	35	Oklahoma
39	12.0	T.J. McConnell	     Sr	6-1	195	38	Arizona
39	12.0	Georges Niang	     Jr	6-8	230	34	Iowa State
42	11.9	London Perrantes     So	6-2	189	32	Virginia
42	11.9	Steve Vasturia	     So	6-5	211	38	Notre Dame
44	11.6	Karl-Anthony Towns   Fr	6-11	250	39	Kentucky
45	11.5	Jahlil Okafor	     Fr	6-11	270	38	Duke

Bonn1997 wrote:

nixluva wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

smackeddog wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

nixluva wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

nixluva wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:OK fair enough - but if it's isolating different possible lineup rotations, each of those is going to be based on a small sample of minutes or possessions. Many of the examples above are just a couple hundred possessions (comparable to about 2 nba games). This one stat is just not enough to tip the scale in Stein's favor IMO. If we can grab him at #25 (which I'm sure we can't), that would be great.

You're not looking at how he would impact the Knicks team defense. He is so big and long and quick that he by himself would make the defense much improved. If they add better perimeter defenders as Phil is looking to do, then you can build an elite defense. That has to be the goal. Build an Elite defense and the rest will be much easier.

IMO WCS's offense is right there on the edge of being something he can be reliable and consistent with. He's totally focused on it and you can see that his jump shot looks smooth with touch. He has the agility and coordination to make any kind of post moves. He will get better offensively. He's just a late bloomer but now he's focused on it.

Sure, I'm well aware that that's the best case scenario but most of the stats don't indicate he is that productive or influential.

The stats don't tell the whole story. You seem to be assuming that WCS is all he'll ever be. I don't believe that's the case at all. I think he's on the cusp of becoming an Elite big man. There's literally nothing stopping him from being a 2 way player. He has the touch and agility to develop his offensive game. There's nothing hitchy about his movement in any way. Usually bigs like him may be clumsy when they move offensively but not WCS. He actually shows great coordination and agility. He just needs more reps working on his moves. His feet are quick and he has great body control. His shot isn't flat or broken in any way.

Go back and look at his workout video and watch his feet, movement and ball handling and how he finishes his moves. You won't see a player that has no shot at improving his offensive game.

Cusp? Potential?
I'm not using the 4th pick to draft guys based on things they haven't done. Cusp and potential are just fancy ways of saying the guy hasn't done much. Cusp and a quarter get you a gumball. I want someone with a compelling body of work. If we're trading way down for Stein, that's another story.

Like who? Time to step up and say who we should take

Well I already had the trade out/trade down thread. I'm not crazy about any of the options at 4 but I'd probably go with Winslow or Kaminsky. I could understand the argument that we need a HR and it's worth gambling on Mudiay. I haven't completely ruled him out. If I had to pick right now I'd lean towards Winslow though.

I can understand a vote for Kaminsky. Dude had a great season. My problem with Kaminsky isn't that he's not a great player, but rather that we need what WCS does best more than what Kaminsky does best. We need to build a championship level defense. We can always pick up scoring. WCS is on the list almost entirely based on his defense. That's very telling. Any small improvement in his offense and you're talking about an elite player.

National Leaders - +/- Avg
Rank	Value	Player	             Yr	Ht	Wt	Gms	Team
1	16.8	Kevin Pangos	     Sr	6-2	182	38	Gonzaga
2	15.6	Frank Kaminsky	     Sr	7-0	242	39	Wisconsin
3	15.0	Gary Bell Jr.	     Sr	6-2	214	38	Gonzaga
4	14.7	Kyle Wiltjer	     Jr	6-10	240	38	Gonzaga
5	14.6	Tyus Jones	     Fr	6-1	190	39	Duke
6	14.3	Willie Cauley-Stein  Jr	7-0	240	39	Kentucky
7	14.1	Thomas Walkup	     Jr	6-4	195	34	Stephen F. Austin
7	14.1	Quinn Cook	     Sr	6-2	185	39	Duke
7	14.1	Tyler Ulis	     Fr	5-9	155	37	Kentucky
10	13.9	Aaron Harrison	     So	6-6	212	39	Kentucky
||
34	12.2	Delon Wright	     Sr	6-5	178	35	Utah
34	12.2	Pat Connaughton	     Sr	6-5	218	38	Notre Dame
34	12.2	Jerian Grant	     Sr	6-5	203	38	Notre Dame
34	12.2	Justise Winslow	     Fr	6-6	225	39	Duke
38	12.1	Peyton Aldridge	     Fr	6-7	205	32	Davidson
39	12.0	Jordan Woodard	     So	6-0	182	35	Oklahoma
39	12.0	T.J. McConnell	     Sr	6-1	195	38	Arizona
39	12.0	Georges Niang	     Jr	6-8	230	34	Iowa State
42	11.9	London Perrantes     So	6-2	189	32	Virginia
42	11.9	Steve Vasturia	     So	6-5	211	38	Notre Dame
44	11.6	Karl-Anthony Towns   Fr	6-11	250	39	Kentucky
45	11.5	Jahlil Okafor	     Fr	6-11	270	38	Duke

We need what we *hope* WCS does. Right now, we need a starting caliber and a backup caliber center. If we draft WCS, I think we'll still need both a starting and backup caliber center.
However, we only have one player who definitely belongs in an NBA rotation. It's too early to isolate specific needs anyway. We need guys who can play basketball. You might be underestimating how bad this team is right now IMO.

we will need to draft the player who will have the best career, not who will be good next year.

we need to start thinking long term and not like shortsighted bone heads (like we have been for years)

Bonn1997 is right about Towns- if he had stayed in college for 3 years, his stat line showed no improvement, and his coach did not expand his role on the team, he would not be the probable #1 pick in this draft.

You can hide behind the "potential" curtain if you are a one and done player, but how do you do that with someone in Stein's situation.

Kaminsky wouldn't be a late 2nd, or undrafted FA, if he had come out after his first season.

Nobody finds little known prospects like Briggs, and Kaminsky was at a major school. Anyone remember Briggs threads touting Kaminsky when he was a freshman? A sophomore? Probably not...because he only played 8MPG as a freshman, and about 10MPG as a sophomore. He improved his game each year, though, and his college success needs no description here.

If Stein had showed the same kind of improvement as Kaminsky, he would be an easy pick at 4, and maybe a top 1-3 pick, but he did not, so all you have to do is go by that old stand-by, "potential."

Methodology: When he was on, he looked like an NBA All-Star. But when he wasn't, I'm not sure how productive he'd even be in the D-League.