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Instead of Bashing Marbury and The Knicks, Why Not Simply Take A Vacation?
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nixluva
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7/26/2007  9:59 AM
Posted by codeunknown:

First of all, Nix, your understanding of the concept of an average seems to be severely lacking. Read Franco's post. The average is the total 3s made/total 3s taken, regardless of who takes them. It is not the mere average of the individual player averages, rather the team average amounts to a weighted average of the player averages. So the distribution of shots among players is accounted for. This is very basic and it shouldn't be beyond your grasp. As a result, it IS the team 3pt shooting average we're concerned with. Moreover, it should concern you that Nate and Q are among our "best" shooters because 1 is a marginal player and the other has a horrendous injury history. If anything, the potential absence of those players is likely to worsen our average.

Your disregard for career numbers is equally alarming, especially since you counter with nothing except a hope for improvement. Expecting career bests for all of our players is likely to leave you very disappointed.

Lastly, a rank of 23rd out of 30 teams is pathetic. There's nothing over the top about that. And, frankly, its not your "over the top words" that concern me. Its your skewed presentation of the facts.

Code I really don't get your logic at all.

3pt shots attempted:

Steph ---- 345 - 35.7%
Jamal ---- 322 - 32%
Quentin -- 258 - 37.6%
Nate ----- 213 - 39%
Francis -- 111 - 37.8% (just for example)

No one else even made it to 50 3pt shots attempted. In any game that we play the guys most likely to take a 3 are the guys who happen to have the best chance of making that shot. Now what I will say is that we need MORE good 3 pt shooters at the SF position. So Isiah has gone and drafted guys who can hit a 3.

Balkman & Mardy will need to improve their 3pt shooting as well.

AUTOADVERT
Bippity10
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7/26/2007  10:04 AM
I don't think our shooting is pathetic or horrible or even bad. I think the problem with our shooting is that it is inconsistent. A "dead-eye" shooter is a guy that you can never leave open. A guy that may shoot 39% from the field but does that every night. A guy who if left open will definitely go 5 for 6 or thereabouts. WE have good shooters. The problem is on any given night we don't know what They will give us. Craw can go 9-10 one night and then miss his next 8 wether he's left open or has 6 hands in his face. This isn't to knock these guys at all. It's meant to analyze the needs of the team. Honest analyzation is not negative or positive. It's analyzation.

I feel with Curry and Zach we need a Kerr type that can make you pay everytime you leave him. Can Nichols be that guy? Hopefully. We are all hoping for this. We have to make a spot for him on the roster. WE have to find time for him on the floor. But even still, until he does it on an NBA floor we really don't know what he can provide. At some point we have to stop relying on what a guy can do if he gets better and start bringing in guys that have already proven they can get it done. This is Isiah's flaw.
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nixluva
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7/26/2007  10:10 AM
Posted by Bippity10:

I don't think our shooting is pathetic or horrible or even bad. I think the problem with our shooting is that it is inconsistent. A "dead-eye" shooter is a guy that you can never leave open. A guy that may shoot 39% from the field but does that every night. A guy who if left open will definitely go 5 for 6 or thereabouts. WE have good shooters. The problem is on any given night we don't know what They will give us. Craw can go 9-10 one night and then miss his next 8 wether he's left open or has 6 hands in his face. This isn't to knock these guys at all. It's meant to analyze the needs of the team. Honest analyzation is not negative or positive. It's analyzation.

I feel with Curry and Zach we need a Kerr type that can make you pay everytime you leave him. Can Nichols be that guy? Hopefully. We are all hoping for this. We have to make a spot for him on the roster. WE have to find time for him on the floor. But even still, until he does it on an NBA floor we really don't know what he can provide. At some point we have to stop relying on what a guy can do if he gets better and start bringing in guys that have already proven they can get it done. This is Isiah's flaw.

These are some great points. I think there is an element of inconsistency with our shooters.

In terms of Isiah adding a known sniper, he had a chance to do that this year. I think he passed because he wanted guys that could not only hit the 3 but do even more out there. In Chandler and Nichols, I think he feels that he's got guys that can give you more than a Matt Carroll or Jason Kapono. With the limited space we have, it may not have been feasible to fit another pure shooter on the team that didn't really do much else. It's risky, but I think he is confident in his talent evaluation of Chan & DNich.
misterearl
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7/26/2007  10:10 AM
>>With Curry & Zach, we need a guy who can shoot 40%++ from 3pt land.

franco - Michael Redd only shoots 38% and Kobe is 34% from three.

Dirk shoots it at 41% but he's softer than Charmin

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misterearl
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7/26/2007  10:11 AM
nixluva - what you said
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misterearl
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7/26/2007  10:18 AM
The Knicks already have an accurate 3point scorer in Nate (39%) Robinson

I'm more curious about Mardy (mister almost triple-double) Collins

Quentin ain't bad at 37% but oh, that aching back thing is partially problemmatic.

Hit the open man



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codeunknown
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7/26/2007  10:29 AM
Posted by nixluva:
Posted by codeunknown:

First of all, Nix, your understanding of the concept of an average seems to be severely lacking. Read Franco's post. The average is the total 3s made/total 3s taken, regardless of who takes them. It is not the mere average of the individual player averages, rather the team average amounts to a weighted average of the player averages. So the distribution of shots among players is accounted for. This is very basic and it shouldn't be beyond your grasp. As a result, it IS the team 3pt shooting average we're concerned with. Moreover, it should concern you that Nate and Q are among our "best" shooters because 1 is a marginal player and the other has a horrendous injury history. If anything, the potential absence of those players is likely to worsen our average.

Your disregard for career numbers is equally alarming, especially since you counter with nothing except a hope for improvement. Expecting career bests for all of our players is likely to leave you very disappointed.

Lastly, a rank of 23rd out of 30 teams is pathetic. There's nothing over the top about that. And, frankly, its not your "over the top words" that concern me. Its your skewed presentation of the facts.

Code I really don't get your logic at all.

3pt shots attempted:

Steph ---- 345 - 35.7%
Jamal ---- 322 - 32%
Quentin -- 258 - 37.6%
Nate ----- 213 - 39%
Francis -- 111 - 37.8% (just for example)

No one else even made it to 50 3pt shots attempted. In any game that we play the guys most likely to take a 3 are the guys who happen to have the best chance of making that shot. Now what I will say is that we need MORE good 3 pt shooters at the SF position. So Isiah has gone and drafted guys who can hit a 3.

Balkman & Mardy will need to improve their 3pt shooting as well.

Nix, the average takes into account shot distribution. Why are you expecting that the shot distribution will vary so dramatically from last season, when we have the same coach and essentially the same 3pt personnel? There is no a priori reason to believe that our better shooters will play more minutes or take more shots given the framework of our offense and our lack of 2-way players. So, again, please re-read my post regarding the concept of an average.

Francis (who shot reasonably last year) is gone. Nate SHOULD lose minutes to Mardy. And Q needs to stay healthy. Marbs is a career 32.5% 3pt shooter. Our best shooters are question marks heading into the season due to minutes, injuries and consistency issues. And our baseline is 23rd in the league. That is pathetic.
Zach creates open looks. But, those opportunities are funneled through the bottleneck of our subpar shooting.



[Edited by - codeunknown on 07-26-2007 10:34 AM]
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Masterplan
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7/26/2007  10:39 AM
Posted by codeunknown:

Nix, the average takes into account shot distribution. Why are you expecting that the shot distribution will vary so dramatically from last season, when we have the same coach and essentially the same 3pt personnel? There is no a priori reason to believe that our better shooters will play more minutes or take more shots given the framework of our offense and our lack of 2-way players. So, again, please re-read my post regarding the concept of an average.

Francis (who shot reasonably last year) is gone. Nate SHOULD lose minutes to Mardy. And Q needs to stay healthy. Marbs is a career 32.5% 3pt shooter. Our best shooters are question marks heading into the season due to minutes, injuries and consistency issues. And our baseline is 23rd in the league. That is pathetic.
Zach creates open looks. But, those opportunities are funneled through the bottleneck of our subpar shooting.

plus, will zach + eddy create that many more open threes than just eddy last year? some of course, but it won't like double bringing in the second big man... shoot there we go with the whole touches/shots issue again.

i can't believe that we're debating the concept of an average here. nixluva, it doesn't matter that other players on the team took few shots last year. they will take a comparable number of shots again this year, and thus *must* be included in the team shooting equation.
franco12
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7/26/2007  10:42 AM
Posted by misterearl:

>>With Curry & Zach, we need a guy who can shoot 40%++ from 3pt land.

franco - Michael Redd only shoots 38% and Kobe is 34% from three.

Dirk shoots it at 41% but he's softer than Charmin

With Curry & Zach causing opponents to collapse, we need someone to be in the top 20 for 3 pt shooting

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/statistics?stat=nba3ptpct&season=2007&league=nba

The fact is, Curry commanded so much attention, many of our guys were left wide open- and they can't hit the side of a barn. That is the problem- our guys can't hit wide open shots.

Go watch Phoenix or Dallas or San Antonio play- when they're shooters are left open, they make shots. All the time.
Masterplan
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7/26/2007  10:48 AM
Posted by franco12:
Posted by misterearl:

>>With Curry & Zach, we need a guy who can shoot 40%++ from 3pt land.

franco - Michael Redd only shoots 38% and Kobe is 34% from three.

Dirk shoots it at 41% but he's softer than Charmin

With Curry & Zach causing opponents to collapse, we need someone to be in the top 20 for 3 pt shooting

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/statistics?stat=nba3ptpct&season=2007&league=nba

The fact is, Curry commanded so much attention, many of our guys were left wide open- and they can't hit the side of a barn. That is the problem- our guys can't hit wide open shots.

Go watch Phoenix or Dallas or San Antonio play- when they're shooters are left open, they make shots. All the time.

the thing with redd and kobe is, a lot of their threes are contested, by guys like bowen, bell or even double teams. on the other hand, jason kapono was over 50% just playing off wade and shaq. that's more what we should look for out of our shooters - not quite that high, but you get the idea.
Bippity10
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7/26/2007  10:50 AM
Posted by nixluva:
Posted by Bippity10:

I don't think our shooting is pathetic or horrible or even bad. I think the problem with our shooting is that it is inconsistent. A "dead-eye" shooter is a guy that you can never leave open. A guy that may shoot 39% from the field but does that every night. A guy who if left open will definitely go 5 for 6 or thereabouts. WE have good shooters. The problem is on any given night we don't know what They will give us. Craw can go 9-10 one night and then miss his next 8 wether he's left open or has 6 hands in his face. This isn't to knock these guys at all. It's meant to analyze the needs of the team. Honest analyzation is not negative or positive. It's analyzation.

I feel with Curry and Zach we need a Kerr type that can make you pay everytime you leave him. Can Nichols be that guy? Hopefully. We are all hoping for this. We have to make a spot for him on the roster. WE have to find time for him on the floor. But even still, until he does it on an NBA floor we really don't know what he can provide. At some point we have to stop relying on what a guy can do if he gets better and start bringing in guys that have already proven they can get it done. This is Isiah's flaw.

These are some great points. I think there is an element of inconsistency with our shooters.

In terms of Isiah adding a known sniper, he had a chance to do that this year. I think he passed because he wanted guys that could not only hit the 3 but do even more out there. In Chandler and Nichols, I think he feels that he's got guys that can give you more than a Matt Carroll or Jason Kapono. With the limited space we have, it may not have been feasible to fit another pure shooter on the team that didn't really do much else. It's risky, but I think he is confident in his talent evaluation of Chan & DNich.

I agree with you 100%.

This is how the normal building workflow goes:
1.) Find a centerpiece for years to come(through the draft, trade or free-agency this doesn't matter)
2.) Find a complimentary starting line-up to build around that star. 3 of those 4 should be adequate-good 2 way players. This helps to establish a style of play and gives you a more defined plan and strategy as to what types of players you need to target.
3.) Start to replace your aging vets that aren't a part of your building future. Mentoring time.
4.) Find role players and specialists to fill in the gaps and eliminate your weaknesses.

Now of course it never goes exaclty in that order. Guys retire, guys get hurt, guys don't meet expectations, opportunities arise, that type of player isn't available etc. Adjusting is part of it and that's what good GM's do. Isiah has been okay to horrible at adjusting. All the while every move whether it's a move of opportunity or a well thought out planned one, has to meet with your original goals.

Here has been Isiah's workflow:
1.) Take over an aging team without a centerpeace. Target a centerpiece(Marbs), not to build around, but to lead an aging incapable group to a mythical title/fill the seats
2.) Injuries cause Isiah to scrap original plan. This happens. Isiah instead of targeting two way players to fill the roster around Marbs instead targets one way and flawed players strictly on the basis of athleticism.
3.) Quickly realizing that Marbs isn't a centerpiece and that he has no reliable 2 way players he revamps the line-up again and gets a new centerpeice(Eddie Curry).
4.) Now we have our centerpeice. Because he has no energy on the roster he is forced to forgo any thoughts of targeting the future starting line-up and is instead forced to go after anyone and everyone that can provide some energy. In otherwords energy specialists or role players(JJ2, Balkman, DLee) I have nothing against any of them and like them on the team, but it just shows how out of order we went. These players were acquired not because they were a fit for our centerpiece but because they provide energy to the line-up. Once again we were left not knowing who would even be in the line-up 2, 3 or 4 years from now. We still only had one known future starter to groom and a bunch of role players.
5.) Makes a move for a second centerpiece(Zach). Now he finally has established a style of play to build around. For the first time in 3 years it is obvious what type of players we should be targeting.
6.) Now has to target two way players because for 3 years we have ignored this
7.) Will need to rid the roster of both wastes of space and good players that don't fit that we really want to keep in order to start targeting specialists and role players that can open the floor.

Isiah's "plan" is disjointed. It's not that we are doomed, it's that there are so many obvious moves that should have been addressed years ago. He has not been pro-active(see Jerome James). With Curry and Zach we need a PG of the future. We have to hope Mardy is that guy or else we are going to be starting over again at this position two years from now. Then we will be forced to target a free-agent market and take what is available instead of being pro-active and using all our resources to find the guy that fits.

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nixluva
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7/26/2007  11:06 AM
Posted by Masterplan:
Posted by codeunknown:

Nix, the average takes into account shot distribution. Why are you expecting that the shot distribution will vary so dramatically from last season, when we have the same coach and essentially the same 3pt personnel? There is no a priori reason to believe that our better shooters will play more minutes or take more shots given the framework of our offense and our lack of 2-way players. So, again, please re-read my post regarding the concept of an average.

Francis (who shot reasonably last year) is gone. Nate SHOULD lose minutes to Mardy. And Q needs to stay healthy. Marbs is a career 32.5% 3pt shooter. Our best shooters are question marks heading into the season due to minutes, injuries and consistency issues. And our baseline is 23rd in the league. That is pathetic.
Zach creates open looks. But, those opportunities are funneled through the bottleneck of our subpar shooting.

plus, will zach + eddy create that many more open threes than just eddy last year? some of course, but it won't like double bringing in the second big man... shoot there we go with the whole touches/shots issue again.

i can't believe that we're debating the concept of an average here. nixluva, it doesn't matter that other players on the team took few shots last year. they will take a comparable number of shots again this year, and thus *must* be included in the team shooting equation.

How do you know if perhaps Isiah might work Nichols into the rotation or if certain poor 3pt shooters won't take 3's like they did last year. You can't really know that Isiah won't revise the way this team plays in such a way that we do a better job of making sure we get our best shooters in position to take the 3.

In terms of Zach helping the perimeter game with his presence in the lineup. Let's just remember that it's likely Zach will go to the post when Eddy comes out. It's logical to assume that Isiah will look to make sure we always have a low post presence in the game. So YEAH, Zach will help the 3 point shooting, by providing a post presence where we didn't have one last year, when Curry wasn't in the game.

Code, you're doing a good job of taking the worst case scenario for why this teams shooting will be insufficient. This assumes that Isiah has no clue how to make sure he has good perimeter shooting this year. For one thing Nate is gonna play and if Mardy is gonna take minutes away, he's gonna have to have improved his 3pt shooting, cuz that's gonna be a priority this year. I'm hopeful that Q will be healthy this year and able to play more games.

For much of Steph's career he hasn't been a great 3pt shooter, but I believe he's improved in that area. Why? Because he's decided to focus on it. Isiah even mentioned that Steph has added that to his game, knowing it would be important.

In 04-05 when he took an avg of 4, 3's per game, he shot 35.4%,
In 05-06 under LB who forbade 3's, he took an avg of 1.7, 3's per game and shot only 31.7%
In 06-07 under Zeke, he took an avg of 4.7, 3's per game and shot 35.7%

In my estimation, Steph will be able to focus on getting set and keeping his form on his 3's. I expect that he'll be able to shoot about what he did last year.
Bippity10
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7/26/2007  11:22 AM
CodeUnknown is looking at the worst case scenario and Nixluva only looks at the best case scenario. In the end we don't know. Once again when we look at our roster we have no idea what to expect. This is the theme of Isiah's GM' career thus far.
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Masterplan
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7/26/2007  11:33 AM
Posted by nixluva:

How do you know if perhaps Isiah might work Nichols into the rotation or if certain poor 3pt shooters won't take 3's like they did last year. You can't really know that Isiah won't revise the way this team plays in such a way that we do a better job of making sure we get our best shooters in position to take the 3.

you're missing the point, though. we do a decent job having our good shooters take threes. but there will *always* be situations where the ball gets swung to renaldo or collins or jeffries or randolph on the three point line. and they'll take some of those shots, and they won't be bad shots. even the most disciplined teams have low percentage players take shots, you can't just assume no below-average shooters will shoot.
In terms of Zach helping the perimeter game with his presence in the lineup. Let's just remember that it's likely Zach will go to the post when Eddy comes out. It's logical to assume that Isiah will look to make sure we always have a low post presence in the game. So YEAH, Zach will help the 3 point shooting, by providing a post presence where we didn't have one last year, when Curry wasn't in the game.

i agreed that he will help the perimeter game - but i posed the question of how much? i think it's clear that having two post-up bigs won't, for instance, double the open 3pt looks we get. i think it will have a very modest effect on our percentages. my opinion/prediction.

by the way, i wish you'd answer my question in the channing frye thread.

[Edited by - Masterplan on 07-26-2007 11:35 AM]
BasketballJones
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7/26/2007  11:43 AM
I agree with nixluva. We should only include the three point shooting of our best shooters when calculating the team's 3 point average.
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EnySpree
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7/26/2007  11:45 AM
So this is how you guys keep boosting up your post count.

10 pages arguing?
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martin
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7/26/2007  11:49 AM
Posted by EnySpree:

So this is how you guys keep boosting up your post count.

10 pages arguing?

that and the Alba thread. Not too much to post about in the summer. Wish there were like 3 summer leagues going on.
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nixluva
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7/26/2007  11:49 AM
Posted by Masterplan:
Posted by nixluva:

How do you know if perhaps Isiah might work Nichols into the rotation or if certain poor 3pt shooters won't take 3's like they did last year. You can't really know that Isiah won't revise the way this team plays in such a way that we do a better job of making sure we get our best shooters in position to take the 3.

you're missing the point, though. we do a decent job having our good shooters take threes. but there will *always* be situations where the ball gets swung to renaldo or collins or jeffries or randolph on the three point line. and they'll take some of those shots, and they won't be bad shots. even the most disciplined teams have low percentage players take shots, you can't just assume no below-average shooters will shoot.
In terms of Zach helping the perimeter game with his presence in the lineup. Let's just remember that it's likely Zach will go to the post when Eddy comes out. It's logical to assume that Isiah will look to make sure we always have a low post presence in the game. So YEAH, Zach will help the 3 point shooting, by providing a post presence where we didn't have one last year, when Curry wasn't in the game.

i agreed that he will help the perimeter game - but i posed the question of how much? i think it's clear that having two post-up bigs won't, for instance, double the open 3pt looks we get. i think it will have a very modest effect on our percentages. my opinion/prediction.

by the way, i wish you'd answer my question in the channing frye thread.

[Edited by - Masterplan on 07-26-2007 11:35 AM]

I havn't yet gone back to the Frye thread, I'll check it out.

In regards to the guys who take the occasional 3, I don't think they're really going to be a problem. I would assume that in many cases those guys will only have very limited situations where they get the ball at the 3pt line and must shoot it.

My point is that I expect that there will be a greater focus on the 3 and who is taking them. I also disagree about Zach not having a significant efffect on the amount of open looks we get from 3. Like I said. In years past we didn't have another serious post threat like Zach who could take over when Curry isn't in the game. Now we do. That's gonna make a big difference in terms of our ability to play inside out effectively for the whole game. I never said anything about it doubling the amount of looks, but I do expect that they will increase a good deal.
BasketballJones
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7/26/2007  11:53 AM
Anyone care to bet how long it takes nixluva to drive codeunknown insane?

[Edited by - basketballjones on 07-26-2007 11:53]
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7/26/2007  12:01 PM
Posted by BasketballJones:

Anyone care to bet how long it takes nixluva to drive codeunknown insane?

About 3 more posts.
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