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The Case for Willie Trill Cauley Stein
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WaltLongmire
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6/7/2015  1:16 AM
Knicks1969 wrote:
WaltLongmire wrote:
BRIGGS wrote:I wonder if Stein is part of my Jewish fraternity. I know many Steins and they're all Jewish.

So its possible that he won't be available for Friday night games and Saturday morning practices?

What the heck!

Lol.....BRIGGS is trying to find all sorts of excuses to view STEIN in a negative light. We all know you prefer Kaminski dude:::)))))


Pretty sure I saw a Jewish star amongst his many tattoos.
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Ilovestarks
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6/7/2015  5:47 AM
I love WCS, but it think some of his advantages will be faded if he gain weight , his a quick/agille 7' fotter mainly due to his physical shape , if he becomes a tank he will no longer be that quick/agile which may be what make him such elite defender
BRIGGS
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6/7/2015  7:49 AM
The ="nixluva"]
In trying to show how WCS can impact his team despite not being a big offensive threat, I think this article does the best job of trying to quantify it.

It has become popular in basketball stats circles to measure player impact in terms of the difference between their on and off court impacts; that is, how does a team drop off when a player leaves the game? This takes the next step beyond accounting for a player’s individual stats, and moves to account for the impact a player has on how the rest of his team plays. It’s not perfect, since it usually doesn’t account for which teammates are in the game, or if the other team has their backups in…but it is definitely a step in the right direction.

I like to measure Isolated Plus/Minus, which helps to deal with some of these issues. I measure plus/minus for all the lineups a player is in, and compare that to the plus/minus of the remaining four players when any other player joins them. This at least controls for the quality of teammates, and looks at how each player impacts the game compared to their teammates. It’s not meant to rate individual players, but rather to identify how easily players are replaced by their teammates. So, how did UK’s roster stack up in the 2014/15 season?

The far right columns is what we’re measuring, and the higher the value the better. It attempts to capture the per-possession value each player adds (or subtracts) to the team’s scoring margin. By this measure, Willie Cauley-Stein and Tyler Ulis led the team, adding +.07 points per possession more than their teammates. So, what are they doing so well? Let’s look at their on/off court impact across a number of stats:

First, let’s look at Willie Cauley-Stein. He’s off to the NBA, but the mobile seven-footer made a large impact, particularly on the defensive end. What do the stats say?

UK Cauley-Stein Diff

As expected, Cauley-Stein’s impact is on the defensive end. UK allows 82 pts per 100 possessions when he’s in, and 90 pts/100 poss when he sits. UK does shoot better with him out, but also turns the ball over more. They also force more turnovers and draw more fouls with Willie in the game. His defensive presence is difficult to replicate, even on a roster as loaded as UK’s.

http://cats.cardsandcatsstats.com/uk-201415-season-wrap-up-on-off-court-differentials/#more-201

The only thing this showed was the truth. It didn't matter whether stein was out there for Kentucky or not they has 6 seven fters and there defense never changed although their offense was worse with stein in?

RIP Crushalot😞
Bonn1997
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6/7/2015  8:36 AM
mreinman wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:Mudiay is Jewish

is he reallY?


No, I was just joking. I should have inserted the smiley face.
mreinman
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6/7/2015  9:58 AM
Bonn1997 wrote:
mreinman wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:Mudiay is Jewish

is he reallY?


No, I was just joking. I should have inserted the smiley face.

yeah so was I

so here is what phil is thinking ....
Bonn1997
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6/7/2015  9:59 AM
LOL
nixluva
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6/7/2015  10:39 AM
BRIGGS wrote:
nixluva wrote:In trying to show how WCS can impact his team despite not being a big offensive threat, I think this article does the best job of trying to quantify it.

It has become popular in basketball stats circles to measure player impact in terms of the difference between their on and off court impacts; that is, how does a team drop off when a player leaves the game? This takes the next step beyond accounting for a player’s individual stats, and moves to account for the impact a player has on how the rest of his team plays. It’s not perfect, since it usually doesn’t account for which teammates are in the game, or if the other team has their backups in…but it is definitely a step in the right direction.

I like to measure Isolated Plus/Minus, which helps to deal with some of these issues. I measure plus/minus for all the lineups a player is in, and compare that to the plus/minus of the remaining four players when any other player joins them. This at least controls for the quality of teammates, and looks at how each player impacts the game compared to their teammates. It’s not meant to rate individual players, but rather to identify how easily players are replaced by their teammates. So, how did UK’s roster stack up in the 2014/15 season?

The far right columns is what we’re measuring, and the higher the value the better. It attempts to capture the per-possession value each player adds (or subtracts) to the team’s scoring margin. By this measure, Willie Cauley-Stein and Tyler Ulis led the team, adding +.07 points per possession more than their teammates. So, what are they doing so well? Let’s look at their on/off court impact across a number of stats:

First, let’s look at Willie Cauley-Stein. He’s off to the NBA, but the mobile seven-footer made a large impact, particularly on the defensive end. What do the stats say?

UK Cauley-Stein Diff

As expected, Cauley-Stein’s impact is on the defensive end. UK allows 82 pts per 100 possessions when he’s in, and 90 pts/100 poss when he sits. UK does shoot better with him out, but also turns the ball over more. They also force more turnovers and draw more fouls with Willie in the game. His defensive presence is difficult to replicate, even on a roster as loaded as UK’s.

http://cats.cardsandcatsstats.com/uk-201415-season-wrap-up-on-off-court-differentials/#more-201

The only thing this showed was the truth. It didn't matter whether stein was out there for Kentucky or not they has 6 seven fters and there defense never changed although their offense was worse with stein in?

As usual you totally missed the point of why this writer did his examination. Yes UK was talented, but the writer was looking to quantify WCS impact despite all of that. Only you could look at what this guy wrote and come out with such a stupid statement. A -8 ppp differential is not inconsequential.

Like many defensive bigs, he's not really pumping up the scoring, but his defensive impact outweighs his offensive hit. The point is that WCS would make a substantial impact on how the Knicks played defense and that is very important. A drop of 8 ppp would help the Knicks. In addition to adding some more scoring talent as they expect to do.

The point is that WCS makes a defense better and he's not even finished learning how to be a great defender. If Phil and Fish can coach WCS up and get his confidence up on offense you're talking about a guy who could have an even great impact.

Even without scoring a lot WCS was still a top player in terms of his impact. By your estimation WCS shouldn't even be on this list!

National Leaders - +/- Avg
Rank Value Player Yr Ht Wt Gms Team
1 16.8 Kevin Pangos Sr 6-2 182 38 Gonzaga
2 15.6 Frank Kaminsky Sr 7-0 242 39 Wisconsin
3 15.0 Gary Bell Jr. Sr 6-2 214 38 Gonzaga
4 14.7 Kyle Wiltjer Jr 6-10 240 38 Gonzaga
5 14.6 Tyus Jones Fr 6-1 190 39 Duke
6 14.3 Willie Cauley-Stein Jr 7-0 240 39 Kentucky

With any improvement in his offense WCS would easily surpass what he did this year in terms of his +/-. The difference between WCS and Kaminsky was a mere 1.3. With all of WCS inconsistency and lack of offense he was still at the top of CBB. I'm telling you this kid has some upside still left to realize.

WCS has only recently started to make improvement in his offense and tho it didn't all come across this season, there are small signs that he's beginning to make progress. His FT shooting improved and since the end of the season he's been able to put in more focused work on his offense. I think there's a good chance he can break thru.

smackeddog
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6/7/2015  10:48 AM
Ilovestarks wrote:I love WCS, but it think some of his advantages will be faded if he gain weight , his a quick/agille 7' fotter mainly due to his physical shape , if he becomes a tank he will no longer be that quick/agile which may be what make him such elite defender

well they said he's gained 20lbs of muscle and increased his vertical since the season ended. Could just be the usual pre-draft tall tales though!

Bonn1997
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6/7/2015  10:50 AM
smackeddog wrote:
Ilovestarks wrote:I love WCS, but it think some of his advantages will be faded if he gain weight , his a quick/agille 7' fotter mainly due to his physical shape , if he becomes a tank he will no longer be that quick/agile which may be what make him such elite defender

well they said he's gained 20lbs of muscle and increased his vertical since the season ended. Could just be the usual pre-draft tall tales though!


20 lbs of muscle in 2 months?
smackeddog
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6/7/2015  10:52 AM
Bonn1997 wrote:
smackeddog wrote:
Ilovestarks wrote:I love WCS, but it think some of his advantages will be faded if he gain weight , his a quick/agille 7' fotter mainly due to his physical shape , if he becomes a tank he will no longer be that quick/agile which may be what make him such elite defender

well they said he's gained 20lbs of muscle and increased his vertical since the season ended. Could just be the usual pre-draft tall tales though!


20 lbs of muscle in 2 months?

You sound sceptical- why would an agent or player lie on the run-up to the draft?

nixluva
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6/7/2015  11:07 AM
WCS may have put on 5-10 lbs realistically. He has a very low body fat still. I'm sure they cranked up his Protein intake. For him to maintain that he'll have to stay on his training and diet. Naturally he should be able to put on some weight as he matures. 20 lbs is just not believable. I don't believe he now weighs 260 lbs.
WaltLongmire
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6/7/2015  11:13 AM
Bonn1997 wrote:
smackeddog wrote:
Ilovestarks wrote:I love WCS, but it think some of his advantages will be faded if he gain weight , his a quick/agille 7' fotter mainly due to his physical shape , if he becomes a tank he will no longer be that quick/agile which may be what make him such elite defender

well they said he's gained 20lbs of muscle and increased his vertical since the season ended. Could just be the usual pre-draft tall tales though!


20 lbs of muscle in 2 months?

Oddly enough, it could hurt him in some ways.

First thing that comes to mind is PEDs.

Second would be whether this is something a player can continue to maintain.

I actually hope there is nothing to the rumor, and the guys who want him on the Knicks should feel the same way, because it's a red flag, if true.

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CrushAlot
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6/7/2015  11:23 AM
WaltLongmire wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:
smackeddog wrote:
Ilovestarks wrote:I love WCS, but it think some of his advantages will be faded if he gain weight , his a quick/agille 7' fotter mainly due to his physical shape , if he becomes a tank he will no longer be that quick/agile which may be what make him such elite defender

well they said he's gained 20lbs of muscle and increased his vertical since the season ended. Could just be the usual pre-draft tall tales though!


20 lbs of muscle in 2 months?

Oddly enough, it could hurt him in some ways.

First thing that comes to mind is PEDs.

Second would be whether this is something a player can continue to maintain.

I actually hope there is nothing to the rumor, and the guys who want him on the Knicks should feel the same way, because it's a red flag, if true.

His body fat was measured at a low number 6%? It seems adding 20 lbs of muscle would be pretty difficult.
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nixluva
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6/7/2015  11:36 AM
CrushAlot wrote:
WaltLongmire wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:
smackeddog wrote:
Ilovestarks wrote:I love WCS, but it think some of his advantages will be faded if he gain weight , his a quick/agille 7' fotter mainly due to his physical shape , if he becomes a tank he will no longer be that quick/agile which may be what make him such elite defender

well they said he's gained 20lbs of muscle and increased his vertical since the season ended. Could just be the usual pre-draft tall tales though!


20 lbs of muscle in 2 months?

Oddly enough, it could hurt him in some ways.

First thing that comes to mind is PEDs.

Second would be whether this is something a player can continue to maintain.

I actually hope there is nothing to the rumor, and the guys who want him on the Knicks should feel the same way, because it's a red flag, if true.

His body fat was measured at a low number 6%? It seems adding 20 lbs of muscle would be pretty difficult.

Yeah I don't believe that. We don't even know who really said it. At the Combine they weighed him at 242 lbs which was about mid May.


2015 NBA Combine: Willie Cauley-Stein
Height Height Standing Hand Hand
Pos. (Shoes) (without Shoes) Weight Wingspan Reach Length Width Body Fat
C 7' 0.5'' 6' 11.25'' 242.4 lb. 7' 3'' 9' 3'' 9.5'' 9'' 6.3%
Bonn1997
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6/7/2015  2:53 PM    LAST EDITED: 6/7/2015  2:53 PM
These plus/minus on/off stats are too ambiguous to give much weight to. Your plus/minus will look better if you positively impact the game but also if you (a) play with great teammates and/or (b) have a bad sub or have other bad bench players who tend to go in when you do. I'm not saying completely ignore the plus/minus but you have to look at it within the bigger context that most of Stein's stats look bad and he didn't improve in his 3 years of college. I'd be happy to add Stein MUCH later in the draft but not at #4.
nixluva
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6/7/2015  2:56 PM
Bonn1997 wrote:These plus/minus on/off stats are too ambiguous to give much weight to. Your plus/minus will look better if you positively impact the game but also if you (a) play with great teammates and/or (b) have a bad sub or have other bad bench players who tend to go in when you do. I'm not saying completely ignore the plus/minus but you have to look at it within the bigger context that most of Stein's stats look bad and he didn't improve in his 3 years of college. I'd be happy to add Stein MUCH later in the draft but not at #4.

So you also didn't bother to read what i posted earlier which addresses the concerns about +/-?

It has become popular in basketball stats circles to measure player impact in terms of the difference between their on and off court impacts; that is, how does a team drop off when a player leaves the game? This takes the next step beyond accounting for a player’s individual stats, and moves to account for the impact a player has on how the rest of his team plays. It’s not perfect, since it usually doesn’t account for which teammates are in the game, or if the other team has their backups in…but it is definitely a step in the right direction.

I like to measure Isolated Plus/Minus, which helps to deal with some of these issues. I measure plus/minus for all the lineups a player is in, and compare that to the plus/minus of the remaining four players when any other player joins them. This at least controls for the quality of teammates, and looks at how each player impacts the game compared to their teammates. It’s not meant to rate individual players, but rather to identify how easily players are replaced by their teammates. So, how did UK’s roster stack up in the 2014/15 season?

The far right columns is what we’re measuring, and the higher the value the better. It attempts to capture the per-possession value each player adds (or subtracts) to the team’s scoring margin. By this measure, Willie Cauley-Stein and Tyler Ulis led the team, adding +.07 points per possession more than their teammates. So, what are they doing so well? Let’s look at their on/off court impact across a number of stats:

First, let’s look at Willie Cauley-Stein. He’s off to the NBA, but the mobile seven-footer made a large impact, particularly on the defensive end. What do the stats say?

UK Cauley-Stein Diff

As expected, Cauley-Stein’s impact is on the defensive end. UK allows 82 pts per 100 possessions when he’s in, and 90 pts/100 poss when he sits. UK does shoot better with him out, but also turns the ball over more. They also force more turnovers and draw more fouls with Willie in the game. His defensive presence is difficult to replicate, even on a roster as loaded as UK’s.

http://cats.cardsandcatsstats.com/uk-201415-season-wrap-up-on-off-court-differentials/#more-201

Bonn1997
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6/7/2015  3:03 PM    LAST EDITED: 6/7/2015  3:06 PM
OK fair enough - but if it's isolating different possible lineup rotations, each of those is going to be based on a small sample of minutes or possessions. Many of the examples above are just a couple hundred possessions (comparable to about 2 nba games). This one stat is just not enough to tip the scale in Stein's favor IMO. If we can grab him at #25 (which I'm sure we can't), that would be great.
nixluva
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6/7/2015  3:13 PM
Bonn1997 wrote:OK fair enough - but if it's isolating different possible lineup rotations, each of those is going to be based on a small sample of minutes or possessions. Many of the examples above are just a couple hundred possessions (comparable to about 2 nba games). This one stat is just not enough to tip the scale in Stein's favor IMO. If we can grab him at #25 (which I'm sure we can't), that would be great.

You're not looking at how he would impact the Knicks team defense. He is so big and long and quick that he by himself would make the defense much improved. If they add better perimeter defenders as Phil is looking to do, then you can build an elite defense. That has to be the goal. Build an Elite defense and the rest will be much easier.

IMO WCS's offense is right there on the edge of being something he can be reliable and consistent with. He's totally focused on it and you can see that his jump shot looks smooth with touch. He has the agility and coordination to make any kind of post moves. He will get better offensively. He's just a late bloomer but now he's focused on it.

Bonn1997
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6/7/2015  3:15 PM    LAST EDITED: 6/7/2015  3:15 PM
nixluva wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:OK fair enough - but if it's isolating different possible lineup rotations, each of those is going to be based on a small sample of minutes or possessions. Many of the examples above are just a couple hundred possessions (comparable to about 2 nba games). This one stat is just not enough to tip the scale in Stein's favor IMO. If we can grab him at #25 (which I'm sure we can't), that would be great.

You're not looking at how he would impact the Knicks team defense. He is so big and long and quick that he by himself would make the defense much improved. If they add better perimeter defenders as Phil is looking to do, then you can build an elite defense. That has to be the goal. Build an Elite defense and the rest will be much easier.

IMO WCS's offense is right there on the edge of being something he can be reliable and consistent with. He's totally focused on it and you can see that his jump shot looks smooth with touch. He has the agility and coordination to make any kind of post moves. He will get better offensively. He's just a late bloomer but now he's focused on it.


Sure, I'm well aware that that's the best case scenario but most of the stats don't indicate he is that productive or influential.
nixluva
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6/7/2015  3:23 PM
Bonn1997 wrote:
nixluva wrote:
Bonn1997 wrote:OK fair enough - but if it's isolating different possible lineup rotations, each of those is going to be based on a small sample of minutes or possessions. Many of the examples above are just a couple hundred possessions (comparable to about 2 nba games). This one stat is just not enough to tip the scale in Stein's favor IMO. If we can grab him at #25 (which I'm sure we can't), that would be great.

You're not looking at how he would impact the Knicks team defense. He is so big and long and quick that he by himself would make the defense much improved. If they add better perimeter defenders as Phil is looking to do, then you can build an elite defense. That has to be the goal. Build an Elite defense and the rest will be much easier.

IMO WCS's offense is right there on the edge of being something he can be reliable and consistent with. He's totally focused on it and you can see that his jump shot looks smooth with touch. He has the agility and coordination to make any kind of post moves. He will get better offensively. He's just a late bloomer but now he's focused on it.


Sure, I'm well aware that that's the best case scenario but most of the stats don't indicate he is that productive or influential.

The stats don't tell the whole story. You seem to be assuming that WCS is all he'll ever be. I don't believe that's the case at all. I think he's on the cusp of becoming an Elite big man. There's literally nothing stopping him from being a 2 way player. He has the touch and agility to develop his offensive game. There's nothing hitchy about his movement in any way. Usually bigs like him may be clumsy when they move offensively but not WCS. He actually shows great coordination and agility. He just needs more reps working on his moves. His feet are quick and he has great body control. His shot isn't flat or broken in any way.

Go back and look at his workout video and watch his feet, movement and ball handling and how he finishes his moves. You won't see a player that has no shot at improving his offensive game.

The Case for Willie Trill Cauley Stein

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