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NBA Draft Lotto Thread - May 19 - 2009
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VDesai
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5/19/2009  11:45 PM
Posted by oohah:
Posted by VDesai:


Which is precisely why I compare Steph Curry's eFG to guys who shoot close to the basket. His shooting efficiency number places him in similar company to guys who can use their physicality to score in close, i.e. he's creating a similar amount of points per each shot he takes as a guy who plays close to the basket. It actually a fairly intuitive and not a very complicated or even derived number.



So tell me why Chris Jackson isn't the best shooting guard in NBA history? I believe his College EFG is close to if not better than Michael Jordan's.

oohah
Here's the thing about Mahmud Abdul Rauf- he was actually a very impressive scorer on the NBA level with PPG averages in the 18-19 range for a few seasons and mid teens for his career. His career was shortened by mitigating circumstances- namely that he suffered from Tourettes syndrome which was an adversity he had to overcome every day in life.

Anyway, that kind of offense is pretty much what I'm projecting Curry to get if he ends up playing shooting guard on the NBA level. And I have been very consistent with this position on this board. In my opinion picking no.8 in a relatively weaker talent draft, getting that kind of player could be one of the better results and I think Curry has an excellent shot of being that kind of player- a good mid-teens scorer for his career and a high level NBA sixth man.

The true question with him is if he can continue to transition to the PG position on the NBA level and therefor take his talent further. That remains to be seen.



[Edited by - vdesai on 05-19-2009 11:46 PM]
AUTOADVERT
oohah
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5/19/2009  11:46 PM
I believe Chris Paul and Deron Williams had lower EFG's than Curry, and I belive that JJ Reddick had a high er EFG. I'm not sure, just a hunch.

oohah

Good luck Mike D'Antoni, 'cause you ain't never seen nothing like this before!
PresIke
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5/19/2009  11:47 PM
also, you've decided it's meaningless based on seemingly random selections of players who have or have had better eFG% than curry, but are ignoring the reasons it can be demonstrated to be a good way to show strengths and weaknesses of a player.

also TS% is also useful for taking into account free throws and 3 pointers.
Forum Po Po and #33 for a reason...
PresIke
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5/19/2009  11:49 PM
Posted by oohah:

I believe Chris Paul and Deron Williams had lower EFG's than Curry, and I belive that JJ Reddick had a high er EFG. I'm not sure, just a hunch.

oohah

but jj reddick is not good at other things curry is good at. and paul and deron williams are better than curry at other things.

the line of argumentation you keep using would be destroyed in a logic class.
Forum Po Po and #33 for a reason...
oohah
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5/19/2009  11:51 PM
no, it's an example of how you don't seem to understand the use of eFG, and how it is being used to show steph curry's value.

who is saying eFG% is the ONLY way to measure whether a player is good or not?

I simply said that Curry's stats, while very good, have to be taken with a grain of salt because he played in a mid-major league and the entire offense was geared toward getting his scoring off.

You are the one jumping to all the conclusions, saying I don't understand etc.

In lieu of an actual argument, I am being met with a statistic that is black and white. EFG does not show context.

So instead of me not understanding EFG, I say you don't understand the context in which Curry put up his statistics.

Here is another one for you: Keith Jennings EFG: http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/j/jennike01.html Wow that's impressive!

oohah


[Edited by - oohah on 19-05-2009 11:55 PM]
Good luck Mike D'Antoni, 'cause you ain't never seen nothing like this before!
martin
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5/19/2009  11:53 PM
Posted by Pharzeone:
Posted by martin:
Posted by Vmart:
Posted by Andrew:

VMart you do realize that its not 14 balls - 1 for each team right? To get the different percentages you would need 1000 total ping pong balls. Lets pause for commecial break for an hour while someone sifts through all 1000 balls and removes the ones from the team that just got picked.

That is fine put thousand ping pongs if you have to. All you have to do instead since there are 14 teams is allot one ball to the 14th team best record and 14 balls to the worst team. atleast the Knicks would have had 8 ping pongs. Now televise it.

All I know is if they are not doing it in public then they are running a scam.

I think this solidifies why the public is not is on this. You don't even understand lottery percentages and how the system works.

Martin, that's not fair. Why do you assume he or anyone wouldn't learn the process if it was televised. The only reason why I am at all familar is because I've audited lotteries other than that I wouldn't have a clue because I would have no interest. I am sure if they did a real lottery show and explain the process for everyone, a lot of people would obtain an understanding. Also that way they would ensure no one feels like something funny is going on. Imagine if a state like New York would conduct their lottery system in a back room.

sure it's fair. Andrew just quickly explained to vmart the concept of %'s and ping pong balls and vmart still wants 14 ping pongs for the worst team and 1 for the best.

4 fans sent in in the form of reporters. An auditor is there. The machine is shown. It's a boring and tedious process that isn't worth the TV time for ESPN or anyone. You tell me why it's worth the NBAs time to televise it when they are in the business of making money?
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oohah
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5/19/2009  11:55 PM
Posted by PresIke:


but jj reddick is not good at other things curry is good at. and paul and deron williams are better than curry at other things.

the line of argumentation you keep using would be destroyed in a logic class.

Your argument gets destroyed in logic 202 which brings context into the equation.

And J Reddick is a much better pure shooter than Curry. This is really just a stat geek argument you are making.

So instead of the weak logic class pot shot, please tell me what Curry is so good and what makes him a better player than Reddick. Tell me why his big numbers at a mid-major school will translate. This I gotta hear!

I think you've confused Curry with Joe Dumars...hmmm....I wonder what his EFG was?

oohah






[Edited by - oohah on 19-05-2009 11:56 PM]
Good luck Mike D'Antoni, 'cause you ain't never seen nothing like this before!
tkf
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5/19/2009  11:58 PM
Posted by misterearl:

The Clippers will mess it up

no matter who it is

Guaranteed


yea, Blake griffin's career is headed for the gutter.... The clippers have way of destroying top picks somehow.. LOL.. nah, but blake should be fine, just wish he was headed elsewhere..
Anyone who sits around and waits for the lottery to better themselves, either in real life or in sports, Is a Loser............... TKF
oohah
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5/20/2009  12:00 AM
Here's the thing about Mahmud Abdul Rauf- he was actually a very impressive scorer on the NBA level with PPG averages in the 18-19 range for a few seasons and mid teens for his career. His career was shortened by mitigating circumstances- namely that he suffered from Tourettes syndrome which was an adversity he had to overcome every day in life.

Anyway, that kind of offense is pretty much what I'm projecting Curry to get if he ends up playing shooting guard on the NBA level. And I have been very consistent with this position on this board. In my opinion picking no.8 in a relatively weaker talent draft, getting that kind of player could be one of the better results and I think Curry has an excellent shot of being that kind of player- a good mid-teens scorer for his career and a high level NBA sixth man.

The true question with him is if he can continue to transition to the PG position on the NBA level and therefor take his talent further. That remains to be seen.

Mahmud Abdul Rauf was a one-dimension outside shooter at the NBA level. There wass nothing else to his game. He could not set up an offense, he could niot drive, he could not play D. He had a couple of good seasons. Tourretes did cause him some problems. Yet he was still far better than Curry in College and had far more ability and skill.

If Curry is as good as Chris Jackson I'll be pleasantly surprised. I would say that is about his ceiling. And if Curry's career is like that of Rauf's why not just let Nate Robinson play that role since we have a guy like that already?

oohah

Good luck Mike D'Antoni, 'cause you ain't never seen nothing like this before!
Pharzeone
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5/20/2009  12:04 AM
Posted by martin:
Posted by Pharzeone:
Posted by martin:
Posted by Vmart:
Posted by Andrew:

VMart you do realize that its not 14 balls - 1 for each team right? To get the different percentages you would need 1000 total ping pong balls. Lets pause for commecial break for an hour while someone sifts through all 1000 balls and removes the ones from the team that just got picked.

That is fine put thousand ping pongs if you have to. All you have to do instead since there are 14 teams is allot one ball to the 14th team best record and 14 balls to the worst team. atleast the Knicks would have had 8 ping pongs. Now televise it.

All I know is if they are not doing it in public then they are running a scam.

I think this solidifies why the public is not is on this. You don't even understand lottery percentages and how the system works.

Martin, that's not fair. Why do you assume he or anyone wouldn't learn the process if it was televised. The only reason why I am at all familar is because I've audited lotteries other than that I wouldn't have a clue because I would have no interest. I am sure if they did a real lottery show and explain the process for everyone, a lot of people would obtain an understanding. Also that way they would ensure no one feels like something funny is going on. Imagine if a state like New York would conduct their lottery system in a back room.

sure it's fair. Andrew just quickly explained to vmart the concept of %'s and ping pong balls and vmart still wants 14 ping pongs for the worst team and 1 for the best.

4 fans sent in in the form of reporters. An auditor is there. The machine is shown. It's a boring and tedious process that isn't worth the TV time for ESPN or anyone. You tell me why it's worth the NBAs time to televise it when they are in the business of making money?

We won't know until they do it. Put it on a Saturday on ESPN 2. I rather watch that than some Bass fishing show they got on.
I don't like to play bad rookies , I like to play good rookies - Mike D'Antoni
martin
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5/20/2009  12:07 AM
Posted by Pharzeone:
Posted by martin:
Posted by Pharzeone:
Posted by martin:
Posted by Vmart:
Posted by Andrew:

VMart you do realize that its not 14 balls - 1 for each team right? To get the different percentages you would need 1000 total ping pong balls. Lets pause for commecial break for an hour while someone sifts through all 1000 balls and removes the ones from the team that just got picked.

That is fine put thousand ping pongs if you have to. All you have to do instead since there are 14 teams is allot one ball to the 14th team best record and 14 balls to the worst team. atleast the Knicks would have had 8 ping pongs. Now televise it.

All I know is if they are not doing it in public then they are running a scam.

I think this solidifies why the public is not is on this. You don't even understand lottery percentages and how the system works.

Martin, that's not fair. Why do you assume he or anyone wouldn't learn the process if it was televised. The only reason why I am at all familar is because I've audited lotteries other than that I wouldn't have a clue because I would have no interest. I am sure if they did a real lottery show and explain the process for everyone, a lot of people would obtain an understanding. Also that way they would ensure no one feels like something funny is going on. Imagine if a state like New York would conduct their lottery system in a back room.

sure it's fair. Andrew just quickly explained to vmart the concept of %'s and ping pong balls and vmart still wants 14 ping pongs for the worst team and 1 for the best.

4 fans sent in in the form of reporters. An auditor is there. The machine is shown. It's a boring and tedious process that isn't worth the TV time for ESPN or anyone. You tell me why it's worth the NBAs time to televise it when they are in the business of making money?

We won't know until they do it. Put it on a Saturday on ESPN 2. I rather watch that than some Bass fishing show they got on.

Don't hold your breath. And in the mean time envision Stern rigging the lottery for LAC for a third time in the last decade plus for the betterment of the leauge, that's his full-proof plan.
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oohah
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5/20/2009  12:07 AM
also, you've decided it's meaningless based on seemingly random selections of players who have or have had better eFG% than curry, but are ignoring the reasons it can be demonstrated to be a good way to show strengths and weaknesses of a player.

Why don't you just say you like Curry and you think he will be good? Because the rest of your argument has no basis in logic no matter what you type.

I said that EFG is not a good way of judging college players who have widely disparate levels of competition, and I prove it by showing you guys from better, similar, and worse competition at the college whose EFG did not correlate to their NBA careers.

I guess EFG is an accurate indicator only when you want it to be, is that about right? Seems like I made my point!

So if you would like to pursue the discussion, why not leave the protractor in your desk drawer and tell me why YOU THINK Curry will be able to translate his game well enough to the NBA level to make him worth a number 8 pick?

oohah



[Edited by - oohah on 20-05-2009 12:08 AM]
Good luck Mike D'Antoni, 'cause you ain't never seen nothing like this before!
eViL
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5/20/2009  12:13 AM
Chandler, Mobley and #8 --> Memphis.
Jaric and #2 --> Knicks

It's a salary dump for Memphis. Do they want Rubio after the drafted Conley? Can they get their guy at 8?
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Paladin55
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5/20/2009  12:13 AM
Posted by oohah:

If Curry is as good as Chris Jackson I'll be pleasantly surprised. I would say that is about his ceiling. And if Curry's career is like that of Rauf's why not just let Nate Robinson play that role since we have a guy like that already?
oohah

You either have a lot of time on your hand or a lot of coffee in your hand.

This pre-draft workout might settle a lot of questions It is held on June 2/3:

Minnesota Workout (42 invites planned)

Chase Budinger
DeJuan Blair
Jon Brockman
Derrick Brown
Nick Calathes
Darren Collison
Stephen Curry
Austin Daye
Tyreke Evans
Johnny Flynn
Taj Gibson
Danny Green
Daniel Hacket
Tyler Hansbrough
Luke Harangody
Damion James
Gani Lawal
Ty Lawson
Eric Maynor
Jodie Meeks
Patrick Mills
B.J. Mullens
Luke Nevill
Jeff Pendergraph
A.J. Price
Tyler Smith
DaJuan Summers
Jeff Teague
Marcus Thornton
Greivis Vasquez
Ben Woodside
Sam Young

Teams expected: HOU, MEM, UTA, IND, LAL, and more TBD

DraftExpress calls them (the workouts they listed) "highly tentative schedules."

I would hope that the Knicks would have some prominent people available. It would have been nice if Holiday was at this workout.

[Edited by - Paladin55 on 05-20-2009 06:39 AM]
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tkf
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5/20/2009  12:17 AM
Posted by Vmart:

I don't like it there is something massively wrong with this lottery.

I agree, I would like to increase the chances of the teams trying to make the playoffs to get a impact player. I other words, the suns would have been a playoff team in the east, easily.... now they get the 14th pick.. if they had a legit shot at a top 3 pick, or even a top 5 pick, a young player like derozan or Hill could help them quicker than it could a horrible team and franchise.. Honestly, I like to try to reward the teams that tried to win, but just missed.. Not the teams who perfect, being horrible.....
Anyone who sits around and waits for the lottery to better themselves, either in real life or in sports, Is a Loser............... TKF
oohah
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5/20/2009  12:17 AM
Posted by Paladin55:

This pre-draft workout might settle a lot of questions It is held on June 2/3:

Pre-draft workouts don't settle anything. NBA careers do.

oohah


Good luck Mike D'Antoni, 'cause you ain't never seen nothing like this before!
Paladin55
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5/20/2009  12:42 AM
Posted by oohah:
Posted by Paladin55:

This pre-draft workout might settle a lot of questions It is held on June 2/3:

Pre-draft workouts don't settle anything. NBA careers do.

oohah
... ahhhh, yeah, but you will get a chance to see many of the folks we might pick together on the same court. None of the potential draftees have had an NBA career, so yes, a pre-draft workout cannot settle something that, ultimately, can only be settled 10 years down the road, but unless you have some kind of time machine that you are not letting us know about, the only way to judge the kids you may pick is through workouts, game tapes, and whatever statistical models you deem significant.

It is easy for you to look at an NBA career and then go back to a particular draft and reevaluate or analyze that draft with 10 years of hindsight, but the people who decide who to draft don't have your magical powers, my friend.


[Edited by - Paladin55 on 05-20-2009 12:43 AM]
No man is happy without a delusion of some kind. Delusions are as necessary to our happiness as realities- C.N. Bovee
sebstar
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5/20/2009  12:52 AM
Damn...I lost, twice
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TMS
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5/20/2009  12:59 AM
well, Curry better be the real deal cuz he's as good as ours after tonight... i don't see Walsh taking any other PG over him other than Rubio & he'll be long gone by the time #8 rolls around.
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Paladin55
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5/20/2009  1:04 AM
Posted by TMS:

well, Curry better be the real deal cuz he's as good as ours after tonight... i don't see Walsh taking any other PG over him other than Rubio & he'll be long gone by the time #8 rolls around.

You are assuming that Curry will be there, though.

You might still get your boy DeRozan, and if we get him, you will be held accountable for his performance, good or bad.
No man is happy without a delusion of some kind. Delusions are as necessary to our happiness as realities- C.N. Bovee
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NBA Draft Lotto Thread - May 19 - 2009
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