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Where the heck is Hillary Clinton?
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earthmansurfer
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10/22/2016  5:18 PM
A bit for fun, but this guy has predicted (using a model) all but one presidential election back to 1912 correctly.

http://legalinsurrection.com/2016/10/suny-prof-with-reliable-election-model-predicts-87-chance-of-trump-win/

Helmut Norpoth, a professor at Stony Brook University on Long Island, has developed a model for predicting elections which, when applied, has correctly predicted every presidential election back to 1912 with one exception – the 1960 election.

He has been predicting a Trump win for months and he’s standing by his forecast.


UNY professor says Trump win at least 87 percent certain; other polls ‘bunk’

A SUNY professor continues to project Donald Trump as the likely winner of this year’s election and he’s critiquing polls that predict the opposite in a new opinion piece.


Helmut Norpoth has been predicting a Trump victory since early this year. His model currently projects a win for the Republican with a certainty of 87 to 99 percent…

That flies in the face of just about every other major election forecast out there, which mostly give an edge to Democrat Hillary Clinton, notes the Daily Mail.

Norpoth wrote in The Hill that although the race looks decided, current polling methods are “bunk.”

The projections for Clinton are all based on opinion polls, which are flawed because they don’t reflect actions, Norpoth wrote. They’re about what voters think of Clinton or Trump, but they can’t tell us exactly how voters will act on those thoughts.

“It is ingrained in all of us that voting is civic duty,” he says. “So nearly all of us say, oh yes, I’ll vote, and then many will not follow through.”

Instead of opinion polling, Norpoth relies on statistics from candidates’ performances in party primaries and patterns in the electoral cycle to forecast results. The model correctly predicted the victor in every presidential election since 1996, according to the Daily Mail.

1 min on his methodology

The intuitive mind is a sacred gift and the rational mind is a faithful servant. We have created a society that honors the servant and has forgotten the gift. Albert Einstein
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holfresh
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10/22/2016  9:43 PM    LAST EDITED: 10/22/2016  9:52 PM
Trump offered 10k to porn star for sex...


http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/jessica-drake-donald-trump-assault_us_580bde7ae4b000d0b157203c

I wonder what Professor Northpoth's odds are now...

earthmansurfer
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10/23/2016  4:24 AM
holfresh wrote:Trump offered 10k to porn star for sex...

I wonder what Professor Northpoth's odds are now...

Regarding where the world is going, as "bad" as it is - Trump offering 10k to a porn star, which in many places isn't even illegal, doesn't bother me as much as:
Invading Libya and killing thousands of people, installing a western bank, destroying their water treatment facilities, etc.
National Security risks regarding email deletions
Trail of 40 or so dead bodies that died under more than suspicious circumstances. (e.g. suicides with 2 shots to the head, back, etc.)

But the Clintons History goes way back and to be honest, Trump can't hold a candle to the Clintons corruption, really, no one can:

"The Clinton Legacy


The Progressive Review


This list was compiled at the end of the Clinton administration. It was last partially updated in 2000


Our Clinton Scandal Index

The Clintons, to adapt a line from Dr. Johnson, were not only corrupt, they were the cause of corruption in others. Yet seldom in America have so many come to excuse so much mendacity and malfeasance as during the Clinton years. Here are some of the facts that have been buried.

RECORDS SET

- The only president ever impeached on grounds of personal malfeasance
- Most number of convictions and guilty pleas by friends and associates*
- Most number of cabinet officials to come under criminal investigation
- Most number of witnesses to flee country or refuse to testify
- Most number of witnesses to die suddenly
- First president sued for sexual harassment.
- First president accused of rape.
- First first lady to come under criminal investigation
- Largest criminal plea agreement in an illegal campaign contribution case
- First president to establish a legal defense fund.
- First president to be held in contempt of court
- Greatest amount of illegal campaign contributions
- Greatest amount of illegal campaign contributions from abroad
- First president disbarred from the US Supreme Court and a state court

* According to our best information, 40 government officials were indicted or convicted in the wake of Watergate. A reader computes that there was a total of 31 Reagan era convictions, including 14 because of Iran-Contra and 16 in the Department of Housing & Urban Development scandal. 47 individuals and businesses associated with the Clinton machine were convicted of or pleaded guilty to crimes with 33 of these occurring during the Clinton administration itself. There were in addition 61 indictments or misdemeanor charges. 14 persons were imprisoned. A key difference between the Clinton story and earlier ones was the number of criminals with whom he was associated before entering the White House.

Using a far looser standard that included resignations, David R. Simon and D. Stanley Eitzen in Elite Deviance, say that 138 appointees of the Reagan administration either resigned under an ethical cloud or were criminally indicted. Curiously Haynes Johnson uses the same figure but with a different standard in "Sleep-Walking Through History: America in the Reagan Years: "By the end of his term, 138 administration officials had been convicted, had been indicted, or had been the subject of official investigations for official misconduct and/or criminal violations. In terms of number of officials involved, the record of his administration was the worst ever."

STARR-RAY INVESTIGATION

- Number of Starr-Ray investigation convictions or guilty pleas (including one governor, one associate attorney general and two Clinton business partners): 14
- Number of Clinton Cabinet members who came under criminal investigation: 5
- Number of Reagan cabinet members who came under criminal investigation: 4
- Number of top officials jailed in the Teapot Dome Scandal: 3

CRIME STATS

- Number of individuals and businesses associated with the Clinton machine who have been convicted of or pleaded guilty to crimes: 47
- Number of these convictions during Clinton's presidency: 33
- Number of indictments/misdemeanor charges: 61
- Number of congressional witnesses who have pleaded the Fifth Amendment, fled the country to avoid testifying, or (in the case of foreign witnesses) refused to be interviewed: 122

SMALTZ INVESTIGATION

- Guilty pleas and convictions obtained by Donald Smaltz in cases involving charges of bribery and fraud against former Agriculture Secretary Mike Espy and associated individuals and businesses: 15
- Acquitted or overturned cases (including Espy): 6
- Fines and penalties assessed: $11.5 million
- Amount Tyson Food paid in fines and court costs: $6 million

CAMPAIGN FINANCE INVESTIGATION

- As of June 2000, the Justice Department listed 25 people indicted and 19 convicted because of the 1996 Clinton-Gore fundraising scandals.
- According to the House Committee on Government Reform in September 2000, 79 House and Senate witnesses asserted the Fifth Amendment in the course of investigations into Gore's last fundraising campaign.
-James Riady entered a plea agreement to pay an $8.5 million fine for campaign finance crimes. This was a record under campaign finance laws.

CLINTON MACHINE CRIMES FOR WHICH CONVICTIONS WERE OBTAINED

Drug trafficking (3), racketeering, extortion, bribery (4), tax evasion, kickbacks, embezzlement (2), fraud (12), conspiracy (5), fraudulent loans, illegal gifts (1), illegal campaign contributions (5), money laundering (6), perjury, obstruction of justice.

HISTORICAL CONTEXT

- Number of independent counsel inquiries since the 1978 law was passed: 19
- Number that have produced indictments: 7
- Number that produced more convictions than the Starr investigation: 1
- Median length of investigations that led to convictions: 44 months
- Length of Starr-Ray investigation: 69 months.
- Total cost of the Starr investigation (3/00) $52 million
- Total cost of the Iran-Contra investigation: $48.5 million
- Total cost to taxpayers of the Madison Guarantee failure: $73 million

OTHER MATTERS INVESTIGATED BY SPECIAL PROSECUTORS AND CONGRESS, OR REPORTED IN THE MEDIA

Bank and mail fraud, violations of campaign finance laws, illegal foreign campaign funding, improper exports of sensitive technology, physical violence and threats of violence, solicitation of perjury, intimidation of witnesses, bribery of witnesses, attempted intimidation of prosecutors, perjury before congressional committees, lying in statements to federal investigators and regulatory officials, flight of witnesses, obstruction of justice, bribery of cabinet members, real estate fraud, tax fraud, drug trafficking, failure to investigate drug trafficking, bribery of state officials, use of state police for personal purposes, exchange of promotions or benefits for sexual favors, using state police to provide false court testimony, laundering of drug money through a state agency, false reports by medical examiners and others investigating suspicious deaths, the firing of the RTC and FBI director when these agencies were investigating Clinton and his associates, failure to conduct autopsies in suspicious deaths, providing jobs in return for silence by witnesses, drug abuse, improper acquisition and use of 900 FBI files, improper futures trading, murder, sexual abuse of employees, false testimony before a federal judge, shredding of documents, withholding and concealment of subpoenaed documents, fabricated charges against (and improper firing of) White House employees, inviting drug traffickers, foreign agents and participants in organized crime to the White House.

ARKANSAS ALTZHEIMER'S

Number of times that Clinton figures who testified in court or before Congress said that they didn't remember, didn't know, or something similar.

Bill Kennedy 116
Harold Ickes 148
Ricki Seidman 160
Bruce Lindsey 161
Bill Burton 191
Mark Gearan 221
Mack McLarty 233
Neil Egglseston 250
Hillary Clinton 250
John Podesta 264
Jennifer O'Connor 343
Dwight Holton 348
Patsy Thomasson 420
Jeff Eller 697

FROM THE WASHINGTON TIMES: In the portions of President Clinton's Jan. 17 deposition that have been made public in the Paula Jones case, his memory failed him 267 times. This is a list of his answers and how many times he gave each one.

I don't remember - 71
I don't know - 62
I'm not sure - 17
I have no idea - 10
I don't believe so - 9
I don't recall - 8
I don't think so - 8
I don't have any specific recollection - 6
I have no recollection - 4
Not to my knowledge - 4
I just don't remember - 4
I don't believe - 4
I have no specific recollection - 3
I might have - 3
I don't have any recollection of that - 2 I don't have a specific memory - 2
I don't have any memory of that - 2
I just can't say - 2
I have no direct knowledge of that - 2
I don't have any idea - 2
Not that I recall - 2
I don't believe I did - 2
I can't remember - 2
I can't say - 2
I do not remember doing so - 2
Not that I remember - 2
I'm not aware - 1
I honestly don't know - 1
I don't believe that I did - 1
I'm fairly sure - 1
I have no other recollection - 1
I'm not positive - 1
I certainly don't think so - 1
I don't really remember - 1
I would have no way of remembering that - 1
That's what I believe happened - 1
To my knowledge, no - 1
To the best of my knowledge - 1
To the best of my memory - 1
I honestly don't recall - 1
I honestly don't remember - 1
That's all I know - 1
I don't have an independent recollection of that - 1
I don't actually have an independent memory of that - 1
As far as I know - 1
I don't believe I ever did that - 1
That's all I know about that - 1
I'm just not sure - 1
Nothing that I remember - 1
I simply don't know - 1
I would have no idea - 1
I don't know anything about that - 1
I don't have any direct knowledge of that - 1
I just don't know - 1
I really don't know - 1
I can't deny that, I just -- I have no memory of that at all - 1

ARKANSAS SUDDEN DEATH SYNDROME

- Number of persons in the Clinton machine orbit who are alleged to have committed suicide: 9
- Number known to have been murdered: 12
- Number who died in plane crashes: 6
- Number who died in single car automobile accidents: 3
- Number of one-person sking fatalities: 1
- Number of key witnesses who have died of heart attacks while in federal custody under questionable circumstances: 1
- Number of unexplained deaths: 4
- Total suspicious deaths: 46
- Number of northern Mafia killings during peak years of 1968-78: 30
- Number of Dixie Mafia killings during same period: 156

It is important in considering these fatal incidents to bear in mind the following:

The fact that anomalies need to be investigated further carries no presumption of how a death actually occurred, only that there remain serious questions that require answers.

The possibility of foul play must be taken seriously in a major criminal conspiracy in which over two score individuals and firms have been convicted and over 100 witnesses have pled the Fifth Amendment or fled the country.

If foul play did occur in any of these cases, that fact by itself does not carry the presumption that the the Clinton machine was involved. Given the footprints of organized crime, drug trade, foreign espionage, and intelligence agencies on the trail of the Clinton story, such a assumption would not be warranted. It is also well to keep in mind the classic prohibition era movie in which the corrupt poitician's job was not to engage in illegal acts but to avoid noticing them.
ARKANSAS MONEY MANAGEMENT

- Amount of an alleged electronic transfer from the Arkansas Development Financial Authority to a bank in the Cayman Islands during 1980s: $50 million
- Grand Cayman's population: 18,000
- Number of commercial banks: 570
- Number of bank regulators: 1
- Amount Arkansas state pension fund invested in high-risk repos in the mid-80s in one purchase in April 1985: $52 million through the Worthen Bank.
- Number of days thereafter that the state's brokerage firm went belly up: 3
- Amount Arkansas pension fund dropped overnight as a result: 15%
- Percent of Worthen bank that Mochtar Riady bought over the next four months to bail out the bank and the then governor, Bill Clinton: 40%.
- Percent of purchasers from the Clintons and McDougals of resort lots who lost the land because of the sleazy financing provisions: over 50%

THE MEDIA

- Number of journalists covering Whitewater who have been fired, transferred off the beat, resigned or otherwise gotten into trouble because of their work on the scandals (Doug Frantz, Jim Wooten, Richard Behar, Christopher Ruddy, Michael Isikoff, David Eisenstadt, Yinh Chan, Jonathan Broder, James R. Norman, Zoh Hieronimus): 10

FRIENDS OF BILL

- Number of times John Huang took the 5th Amendment in answer to questions during a Judicial Watch deposition: 1,000
- Visits made to the White House by investigation subjects Johnny Chung, James Riady, John Huang, and Charlie Trie. 160
- Number of campaign contributors who got overnights at the White House in the two years before the 1996 election: 577
- Number of members of Thomas Boggs's law firm who have held top positions in the Clinton administration. 18
- Number of times John Huang was briefed by CIA: 37
- Number of calls Huang made from Commerce Department to Lippo banks: 261
- Number of intelligence reports Huang read while at Commerce Department: 500

UNEXPLAINED PHENOMENA

- FBI files misappropriated by the White House: c. 900
- Estimated number of witnesses quoted in FBI files misappropriated by the White House: 18,000
- Number of witnesses who developed medical problems at critical points in Clinton scandals investigation (Tucker, Hale, both McDougals, Lindsey): 5
- Problem areas listed in a memo by Clinton's own lawyer in preparation for the president's defense: 40
- Number of witnesses and critics of Clinton subjected to IRS audit: 45
- Number of names placed in a White House secret database without the knowledge of those named: c. 200,000
- Number of women involved with Clinton who claim to have been physically threatened (Sally Perdue, Gennifer Flowers, Kathleen Willey, Linda Tripp, Elizabeth Ward Gracen, Juantia Broaddrick): 6
- Number of men involved in the Clinton scandals who have been beaten up or claimed to have been intimidated: 10

THE HIDDEN ELECTION

USA Today calls it "the hidden election," in which nearly 7,000 state legislative seats are decided with only minimal media and public attention. But there was an important national story here: evidence of the disaster that Bill Clinton was for the Democratic Party. According to the National Conference of State Legislatures, Democrats held a 1,542 seat lead in the state bodies in 1990. As of 1998 that lead had shrunk to 288. That's a loss of over 1,200 state legislative seats, nearly all of them under Clinton. Across the US, the Democrats controled only 65 more state senate seats than the Republicans.

Further, in 1992, the Democrats controlled 17 more state legislatures than the Republicans. After 1998, the Republicans controlled one more than the Democrats. Not only was this a loss of 9 legislatures under Clinton, but it was the first time since 1954 that the GOP had controlled more state legislatures than the Democrats (they tied in 1968).

Here's what happened to the Democrats under Clinton, based on our latest figures:

- GOP seats gained in House since Clinton became president: 48
- GOP seats gained in Senate since Clinton became president: 8
- GOP governorships gained since Clinton became president: 11
- GOP state legislative seats gained since Clinton became president: 1,254
as of 1998
- State legislatures taken over by GOP since Clinton became president: 9
- Democrat officeholders who have become Republicans since Clinton became
president: 439 as of 1998
- Republican officeholders who have become Democrats since Clinton became president: 3

THE CLINTON LEGACY: LONELY VOICES

Here are some of the all too rare public officials, reporters, and others who spoke truth to the dismally corrupt power of Bill and Hill Clinton's political machine -- some at risk to their careers, others at risk to their lives. A few points to note:

- Those corporatist media reporters who attempted to report the story often found themselves muzzled; some even lost their jobs. The only major dailies that consistently handled the story well were the Wall Street Journal and the Washington Times.

- Nobody on this list has gotten rich and many you may not have even heard of. Taking on the Clintons typically has not been a happy or rewarding experience. At least ten reporters were fired, transferred off their beats, resigned, or otherwise got into trouble because of their work on the scandals.

- Contrary to the popular impression, the politics of those listed ranges from the left to the right, and from the ideological to the independent.

PUBLIC OFFICIALS

MIGUEL RODRIGUEZ was a prosecutor on the staff of Kenneth Starr. His attempts to uncover the truth in the Vincent Foster death case were repeatedly foiled and he was the subject of planted stories undermining his credibility and implying that he was unstable. Rodriguez eventually resigned.

JEAN DUFFEY: Head of a joint federal-county drug task force in Arkansas. Her first instructions from her boss: "Jean, you are not to use the drug task force to investigate any public official." Duffey's work, however, led deep into the heart of the Dixie Mafia, including members of the Clinton machine and the investigation of the so-called "train deaths." Ambrose Evans-Pritchard reports that when she produced a star witness who could testify to Clinton's involvement with cocaine, the local prosecuting attorney, Dan Harmon issued a subpoena for all the task force records, including "the incriminating files on his own activities. If Duffey had complied it would have exposed 30 witnesses and her confidential informants to violent retributions. She refused." Harmon issued a warrant for her arrest and friendly cops told her that there was a $50,000 price on her head. She eventually fled to Texas. The once-untouchable Harmon was later convicted of racketeering, extortion and drug dealing.

BILL DUNCAN: An IRS investigator in Arkansas who drafted some 30 federal indictments of Arkansas figures on money laundering and other charges. Clinton biographer Roger Morris quotes a source who reviewed the evidence: "Those indictments were a real slam dunk if there ever was one." The cases were suppressed, many in the name of "national security." Duncan was never called to testify. Other IRS agents and state police disavowed Duncan and turned on him. Said one source, "Somebody outside ordered it shut down and the walls went up."

RUSSELL WELCH: An Arkansas state police detective working with Duncan. Welch developed a 35-volume, 3,000 page archive on drug and money laundering operations at Mena. His investigation was so compromised that a high state police official even let one of the targets of the probe look through the file. At one point, Welch was sprayed in the face with poison, later identified by the Center for Disease Control as anthrax. He would write in his diary, "I feel like I live in Russia, waiting for the secret police to pounce down. A government has gotten out of control. Men find themselves in positions of power and suddenly crimes become legal." Welch is no longer with the state police.

DAN SMALTZ: Smaltz did an outstanding job investigating and prosecuting charges involving illegal payoffs to Agriculture Secretary Mike Espy, yet was treated with disparaging and highly inaccurate reporting by the likes of the David Broder and the NY Times. Espy was acquitted under a law that made it necessary to not only prove that he accepted gratuities but that he did something specific in return. On the other hand, Tyson Foods copped a plea in the same case, paying $6 million in fines and serving four years' probation. The charge: that Tyson had illegally offered Espy $12,000 in airplane rides, football tickets and other payoffs. In the Espy investigation, Smaltz obtained 15 convictions and collected over $11 million in fines and civil penalties. Offenses for which convictions were obtained included false statements, concealing money from prohibited sources, illegal gratuities, illegal contributions, falsifying records, interstate transportation of stolen property, money laundering, and illegal receipt of USDA subsidies. In addition, Janet Reno blocked Smaltz from pursuing leads aimed at allegations of major drug trafficking in Arkansas and payoffs to the then governor of the state, WJ Clinton. Espy had become Ag secretary only after being flown to Arkansas to get the approval of chicken king Don Tyson.

DAVID SCHIPPERS was House impeachment counsel and a Chicago Democrat. He did a highly creditable job but since he didn't fit the right-wing conspiracy theory, the Clintonista media downplayed his work. Thus most Americans don't know that he told Newsmax, "Let me tell you, if we had a chance to put on a case, I would have put live witnesses before the committee. But the House leadership, and I'm not talking about Henry Hyde, they just killed us as far as time was concerned. I begged them to let me take it into this year. Then I screamed for witnesses before the Senate. But there was nothing anybody could do to get those Senators to show any courage. They told us essentially, you're not going to get 67 votes so why are you wasting our time." Schippers also said that while a number of representatives had looked at additional evidence kept under seal in a nearby House building, not a single senator did.

JOHN CLARKE: When Patrick Knowlton stopped to relieve himself in Ft. Marcy Park 70 minutes before the discovery of Vince Foster's body, he saw things that got him into deep trouble. His interview statements were falsified and prior to testifying he claims he was overtly harassed by more than a score of men in a classic witness intimidation technique. In some cases there were witnesses. John Clarke was his dogged lawyer in the witness intimidation case that was largely ignored by the media, even when the three-judge panel overseeing the Starr investigation permitted Knowlton to append a 20 page addendum to the Starr Report.

OTHER

THE ARKANSAS COMMITTEE: What would later be known as the Vast Right Wing Conspiracy actually began on the left - as a group of progressive students at the University of Arkansas had formed the Arkansas Committee to look into Mena, drugs, money laundering, and Arkansas politics. This committee was the source of some of the important early Clinton stories including those published in the Progressive Review.

CLINTON ADMINISTRATION SCANDALS E-LIST: Moderated by Ray Heizer, this list was subject to all the idiosyncrasies of Internet bulletin boards, but nonetheless proved invaluable to researchers and journalists.

JOURNALISTS

JERRY SEPER of the Washington Times was far and away the best beat reporter of the story, handling it week after week in the best tradition of investigative journalism. If other reporters had followed Seper's lead, the history of the Clintons' machine might have been quite different.

AMBROSE EVANS-PRITCHARD of the London Telegraph did a remarkable job of digging into some of the seamiest tales from Arkansas and the Clinton past. Other early arrivals on the scene were Alexander Cockburn and Jeff Gerth.

CHRISTOPHER RUDDY, among other fine reports on the Clinton scandals, did the best job laying out the facts in the Vince Foster death case.

ROGER MORRIS AND SALLY DENTON wrote a major expose of events at Mena, but at the last moment the Washington Post's brass ordered the story killed. It was published by Penthouse and later included in Morris' "Partners in Power," the best biography of the Clintons.

OTHERS who helped get parts of the story out included reporters Philip Weiss, Carl Limbacher, Wes Phelan, David Bresnahan, William Sammon, Liza Myers, Mara Leveritt, Matt Drudge, Jim Ridgeway, Nat Hentoff, Michael Isikoff, Christopher Hitchens and Michael Kelly. Also independent investigator Hugh Sprunt and former White House FBI agent Gary Aldrich.

SAM SMITH of the Progressive Review wrote the first book (Shadows of Hope, University of"

The intuitive mind is a sacred gift and the rational mind is a faithful servant. We have created a society that honors the servant and has forgotten the gift. Albert Einstein
Welpee
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10/23/2016  5:10 AM    LAST EDITED: 10/23/2016  5:16 AM
earthmansurfer wrote:A bit for fun, but this guy has predicted (using a model) all but one presidential election back to 1912 correctly.

http://legalinsurrection.com/2016/10/suny-prof-with-reliable-election-model-predicts-87-chance-of-trump-win/

Helmut Norpoth, a professor at Stony Brook University on Long Island, has developed a model for predicting elections which, when applied, has correctly predicted every presidential election back to 1912 with one exception – the 1960 election.

He has been predicting a Trump win for months and he’s standing by his forecast.


UNY professor says Trump win at least 87 percent certain; other polls ‘bunk’

A SUNY professor continues to project Donald Trump as the likely winner of this year’s election and he’s critiquing polls that predict the opposite in a new opinion piece.


Helmut Norpoth has been predicting a Trump victory since early this year. His model currently projects a win for the Republican with a certainty of 87 to 99 percent…

That flies in the face of just about every other major election forecast out there, which mostly give an edge to Democrat Hillary Clinton, notes the Daily Mail.

Norpoth wrote in The Hill that although the race looks decided, current polling methods are “bunk.”

The projections for Clinton are all based on opinion polls, which are flawed because they don’t reflect actions, Norpoth wrote. They’re about what voters think of Clinton or Trump, but they can’t tell us exactly how voters will act on those thoughts.

“It is ingrained in all of us that voting is civic duty,” he says. “So nearly all of us say, oh yes, I’ll vote, and then many will not follow through.”

Instead of opinion polling, Norpoth relies on statistics from candidates’ performances in party primaries and patterns in the electoral cycle to forecast results. The model correctly predicted the victor in every presidential election since 1996, according to the Daily Mail.

1 min on his methodology

I call BS on his "methodology." It's based on how somebody did in the primaries against the 2nd best opponent?

1) The 2nd best republican (Cruz) is far less popular than the 2nd best democrat (Sanders)
2) The republicans had 16 people running, very diluted field of candidates.

This guy would be the Dick Morris of the 2016 election if anybody knew who he was. And like Morris, he'll have some excuse on election day why his rock solid methodology didn't work this year, though I doubt anyone will be chasing him down to ask what happened.

This would be like looking at every previous NBA champion to seeing each team had one left handed 6'9" guy with a goatee and predicting the Sacramento Kings are winning the championship this year if they were the only team in the league with a guy who fit this description. Trump supporters are searching high and low for optimism.

earthmansurfer
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10/23/2016  5:34 AM
Welpee wrote:
earthmansurfer wrote:A bit for fun, but this guy has predicted (using a model) all but one presidential election back to 1912 correctly.

http://legalinsurrection.com/2016/10/suny-prof-with-reliable-election-model-predicts-87-chance-of-trump-win/

Helmut Norpoth, a professor at Stony Brook University on Long Island, has developed a model for predicting elections which, when applied, has correctly predicted every presidential election back to 1912 with one exception – the 1960 election.

He has been predicting a Trump win for months and he’s standing by his forecast.


UNY professor says Trump win at least 87 percent certain; other polls ‘bunk’

A SUNY professor continues to project Donald Trump as the likely winner of this year’s election and he’s critiquing polls that predict the opposite in a new opinion piece.


Helmut Norpoth has been predicting a Trump victory since early this year. His model currently projects a win for the Republican with a certainty of 87 to 99 percent…

That flies in the face of just about every other major election forecast out there, which mostly give an edge to Democrat Hillary Clinton, notes the Daily Mail.

Norpoth wrote in The Hill that although the race looks decided, current polling methods are “bunk.”

The projections for Clinton are all based on opinion polls, which are flawed because they don’t reflect actions, Norpoth wrote. They’re about what voters think of Clinton or Trump, but they can’t tell us exactly how voters will act on those thoughts.

“It is ingrained in all of us that voting is civic duty,” he says. “So nearly all of us say, oh yes, I’ll vote, and then many will not follow through.”

Instead of opinion polling, Norpoth relies on statistics from candidates’ performances in party primaries and patterns in the electoral cycle to forecast results. The model correctly predicted the victor in every presidential election since 1996, according to the Daily Mail.

1 min on his methodology

I call BS on his "methodology." It's based on how somebody did in the primaries against the 2nd best opponent?

1) The 2nd best republican (Cruz) is far less popular than the 2nd best democrat (Sanders)
2) The republicans had 16 people running, very diluted field of candidates.

This guy would be the Dick Morris of the 2016 election if anybody knew who he was. And like Morris, he'll have some excuse on election day why his rock solid methodology didn't work this year, though I doubt anyone will be chasing him down to ask what happened.

This would be like looking at every previous NBA champion to seeing each team had one left handed 6'9" guy with a goatee and predicting the Sacramento Kings are winning the championship this year if they were the only team in the league with a guy who fit this description. Trump supporters are searching high and low for optimism.

Except his model has been working for 20 years.

The intuitive mind is a sacred gift and the rational mind is a faithful servant. We have created a society that honors the servant and has forgotten the gift. Albert Einstein
earthmansurfer
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10/23/2016  6:16 AM
Love him or hate him, Trump is proposing a 100 day action plan to start his administration: (I jotted these down)

1. Constitutional amendment to impose term limits on ALL members of congress
2. Federal hiring freeze and reduction through attrition (outside of military, public safety and public health)
3. Requirement for every new Federal Regulation, 2 existing regulations must be eliminated
4. 5 year ban on White House and Congressional officials becoming lobbyists, after they leave government service.
5. Lifetime ban on White House officials lobbying on behalf of a foreign government.
6. Complete ban on foreign lobbyists raising money for American elections

and 7 actions to protect American Workers:
1. He will TOTALLY renegotiate or exit NAFTA (#2205) (Thanks Mr. Bill Clinton for that one.)
2. Withdrawal from TPP
3. Direct Secretary of Treasury to label China a currency manipulator
4. Direct Secretary of Commerce to identify all foreign trading abuses that unfairly impact American workers... and end them immediately.
5. Lift restrictions on production of 50 Trillion Dollars of job producing American energy reserves (e.g. shale, oil, clean coal)
6. Lift Obama Clinton road blocks that will allow vital energy projects to go forward.
7. Cancel BILLIONS of payments to UN climate change program to fix our water and environmental infrastructure.

5 actions to restore security and constitutional rule of law:
1. Cancel every unconstitutional executive action, memorandum and order issued by Obama
2. Begin process of finding replacement for Justice Scalia
3. Cancel all Fed funding for sanctuary cities
4. Begin removing more than 2 million illegal immigrants (drug dealers, gang heads, killers) from our country and cancel visas to foreign countries that won't take them back.
5. Suspend immigration from terror prone regions where vetting can't safely occur.

And
Middle class tax relief
pause - tired of writing down...
(Not saying I agree with all, I don't, but it seems like he really wants to change things for the common person and remove the corruption from politics)

The intuitive mind is a sacred gift and the rational mind is a faithful servant. We have created a society that honors the servant and has forgotten the gift. Albert Einstein
Bonn1997
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10/23/2016  7:22 AM    LAST EDITED: 10/23/2016  7:22 AM
Interesting info. here, Briggs (and everyone else). The people who do the best with financial decisions and outcomes in their own lives are backing Hillary by huge margins! I can't get it to paste the article but the main findings are
-Hillary has a 17 point lead among those making $100K or more a year.
-It's almost a 30 point lead among those making at least $250K
-Typically the wealthy vote Republican. It's unclear if this is a re-alignment with Democrats or just a one-time aversion to Donald Trump.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/23/business/rich-vote-republican-not-this-election-maybe.html?_r=0

Bonn1997
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10/23/2016  7:34 AM    LAST EDITED: 10/23/2016  7:39 AM
earthmansurfer wrote:
Welpee wrote:
earthmansurfer wrote:A bit for fun, but this guy has predicted (using a model) all but one presidential election back to 1912 correctly.

http://legalinsurrection.com/2016/10/suny-prof-with-reliable-election-model-predicts-87-chance-of-trump-win/

Helmut Norpoth, a professor at Stony Brook University on Long Island, has developed a model for predicting elections which, when applied, has correctly predicted every presidential election back to 1912 with one exception – the 1960 election.

He has been predicting a Trump win for months and he’s standing by his forecast.


UNY professor says Trump win at least 87 percent certain; other polls ‘bunk’

A SUNY professor continues to project Donald Trump as the likely winner of this year’s election and he’s critiquing polls that predict the opposite in a new opinion piece.


Helmut Norpoth has been predicting a Trump victory since early this year. His model currently projects a win for the Republican with a certainty of 87 to 99 percent…

That flies in the face of just about every other major election forecast out there, which mostly give an edge to Democrat Hillary Clinton, notes the Daily Mail.

Norpoth wrote in The Hill that although the race looks decided, current polling methods are “bunk.”

The projections for Clinton are all based on opinion polls, which are flawed because they don’t reflect actions, Norpoth wrote. They’re about what voters think of Clinton or Trump, but they can’t tell us exactly how voters will act on those thoughts.

“It is ingrained in all of us that voting is civic duty,” he says. “So nearly all of us say, oh yes, I’ll vote, and then many will not follow through.”

Instead of opinion polling, Norpoth relies on statistics from candidates’ performances in party primaries and patterns in the electoral cycle to forecast results. The model correctly predicted the victor in every presidential election since 1996, according to the Daily Mail.

1 min on his methodology

I call BS on his "methodology." It's based on how somebody did in the primaries against the 2nd best opponent?

1) The 2nd best republican (Cruz) is far less popular than the 2nd best democrat (Sanders)
2) The republicans had 16 people running, very diluted field of candidates.

This guy would be the Dick Morris of the 2016 election if anybody knew who he was. And like Morris, he'll have some excuse on election day why his rock solid methodology didn't work this year, though I doubt anyone will be chasing him down to ask what happened.

This would be like looking at every previous NBA champion to seeing each team had one left handed 6'9" guy with a goatee and predicting the Sacramento Kings are winning the championship this year if they were the only team in the league with a guy who fit this description. Trump supporters are searching high and low for optimism.

Except his model has been working for 20 years.


You can find tons of people who have gotten every election right for the past 20 or more years, which basically just means they were right 5 or 6 times (most of which were not close elections). It's meaningless. I remember about a year ago a research team at Western Illinois University that had gotten every election right since 1975 was saying Bernie Sanders would be the next US President!
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10/23/2016  8:05 AM
Russell Simmons Says He's Heard Donald Trump Make Racist and Anti-Semitic Comments...
http://fortune.com/2016/10/21/russell-simmons-trump-comments/
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10/23/2016  8:13 AM
I've mentioned my #1 worry with the Clintons is corruption and I wonder why is the firing and resignation of 2 DNC workers is not being discussed more?
"We literally have someone in the Clinton campaign saying that they coordinate between the DNC and their super PACs. We have another saying that morals, ethics, and even law doesn't matter as long as they win. We have them saying they staged multiple protests, the Chicago one being extremely violent (more of a riot than a protest). They plant people at events to antagonize and incite violence."

Was the #1 Youtube trending video as well as on Twitter.

Robert Creamer's connection to the White House - Clinton and Obama

Video connecting Wikileaks releases to DNC staged protests

Wikileaks confirming 1pm calls for "Trump Rapid Response" team - it was Zulema Rodriguez who stated this in the video and claimed responsibility for Arizona highway shutdown
https://wikileaks.org/dnc-emails/emailid/12012

The intuitive mind is a sacred gift and the rational mind is a faithful servant. We have created a society that honors the servant and has forgotten the gift. Albert Einstein
Knickoftime
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10/23/2016  11:02 AM
earthmansurfer wrote:
holfresh wrote:Trump offered 10k to porn star for sex...

I wonder what Professor Northpoth's odds are now...

Regarding where the world is going, as "bad" as it is - Trump offering 10k to a porn star, which in many places isn't even illegal, doesn't bother me as much as:
Invading Libya and killing thousands of people, installing a western bank, destroying their water treatment facilities, etc.
National Security risks regarding email deletions
Trail of 40 or so dead bodies that died under more than suspicious circumstances. (e.g. suicides with 2 shots to the head, back, etc.)

But the Clintons History goes way back and to be honest, Trump can't hold a candle to the Clintons corruption, really, no one can:

"The Clinton Legacy


The Progressive Review


This list was compiled at the end of the Clinton administration. It was last partially updated in 2000


Our Clinton Scandal Index

The Clintons, to adapt a line from Dr. Johnson, were not only corrupt, they were the cause of corruption in others. Yet seldom in America have so many come to excuse so much mendacity and malfeasance as during the Clinton years. Here are some of the facts that have been buried.

RECORDS SET

- The only president ever impeached on grounds of personal malfeasance
- Most number of convictions and guilty pleas by friends and associates*
- Most number of cabinet officials to come under criminal investigation
- Most number of witnesses to flee country or refuse to testify
- Most number of witnesses to die suddenly
- First president sued for sexual harassment.
- First president accused of rape.
- First first lady to come under criminal investigation
- Largest criminal plea agreement in an illegal campaign contribution case
- First president to establish a legal defense fund.
- First president to be held in contempt of court
- Greatest amount of illegal campaign contributions
- Greatest amount of illegal campaign contributions from abroad
- First president disbarred from the US Supreme Court and a state court

* According to our best information, 40 government officials were indicted or convicted in the wake of Watergate. A reader computes that there was a total of 31 Reagan era convictions, including 14 because of Iran-Contra and 16 in the Department of Housing & Urban Development scandal. 47 individuals and businesses associated with the Clinton machine were convicted of or pleaded guilty to crimes with 33 of these occurring during the Clinton administration itself. There were in addition 61 indictments or misdemeanor charges. 14 persons were imprisoned. A key difference between the Clinton story and earlier ones was the number of criminals with whom he was associated before entering the White House.

Using a far looser standard that included resignations, David R. Simon and D. Stanley Eitzen in Elite Deviance, say that 138 appointees of the Reagan administration either resigned under an ethical cloud or were criminally indicted. Curiously Haynes Johnson uses the same figure but with a different standard in "Sleep-Walking Through History: America in the Reagan Years: "By the end of his term, 138 administration officials had been convicted, had been indicted, or had been the subject of official investigations for official misconduct and/or criminal violations. In terms of number of officials involved, the record of his administration was the worst ever."

STARR-RAY INVESTIGATION

- Number of Starr-Ray investigation convictions or guilty pleas (including one governor, one associate attorney general and two Clinton business partners): 14
- Number of Clinton Cabinet members who came under criminal investigation: 5
- Number of Reagan cabinet members who came under criminal investigation: 4
- Number of top officials jailed in the Teapot Dome Scandal: 3

CRIME STATS

- Number of individuals and businesses associated with the Clinton machine who have been convicted of or pleaded guilty to crimes: 47
- Number of these convictions during Clinton's presidency: 33
- Number of indictments/misdemeanor charges: 61
- Number of congressional witnesses who have pleaded the Fifth Amendment, fled the country to avoid testifying, or (in the case of foreign witnesses) refused to be interviewed: 122

SMALTZ INVESTIGATION

- Guilty pleas and convictions obtained by Donald Smaltz in cases involving charges of bribery and fraud against former Agriculture Secretary Mike Espy and associated individuals and businesses: 15
- Acquitted or overturned cases (including Espy): 6
- Fines and penalties assessed: $11.5 million
- Amount Tyson Food paid in fines and court costs: $6 million

CAMPAIGN FINANCE INVESTIGATION

- As of June 2000, the Justice Department listed 25 people indicted and 19 convicted because of the 1996 Clinton-Gore fundraising scandals.
- According to the House Committee on Government Reform in September 2000, 79 House and Senate witnesses asserted the Fifth Amendment in the course of investigations into Gore's last fundraising campaign.
-James Riady entered a plea agreement to pay an $8.5 million fine for campaign finance crimes. This was a record under campaign finance laws.

CLINTON MACHINE CRIMES FOR WHICH CONVICTIONS WERE OBTAINED

Drug trafficking (3), racketeering, extortion, bribery (4), tax evasion, kickbacks, embezzlement (2), fraud (12), conspiracy (5), fraudulent loans, illegal gifts (1), illegal campaign contributions (5), money laundering (6), perjury, obstruction of justice.

HISTORICAL CONTEXT

- Number of independent counsel inquiries since the 1978 law was passed: 19
- Number that have produced indictments: 7
- Number that produced more convictions than the Starr investigation: 1
- Median length of investigations that led to convictions: 44 months
- Length of Starr-Ray investigation: 69 months.
- Total cost of the Starr investigation (3/00) $52 million
- Total cost of the Iran-Contra investigation: $48.5 million
- Total cost to taxpayers of the Madison Guarantee failure: $73 million

OTHER MATTERS INVESTIGATED BY SPECIAL PROSECUTORS AND CONGRESS, OR REPORTED IN THE MEDIA

Bank and mail fraud, violations of campaign finance laws, illegal foreign campaign funding, improper exports of sensitive technology, physical violence and threats of violence, solicitation of perjury, intimidation of witnesses, bribery of witnesses, attempted intimidation of prosecutors, perjury before congressional committees, lying in statements to federal investigators and regulatory officials, flight of witnesses, obstruction of justice, bribery of cabinet members, real estate fraud, tax fraud, drug trafficking, failure to investigate drug trafficking, bribery of state officials, use of state police for personal purposes, exchange of promotions or benefits for sexual favors, using state police to provide false court testimony, laundering of drug money through a state agency, false reports by medical examiners and others investigating suspicious deaths, the firing of the RTC and FBI director when these agencies were investigating Clinton and his associates, failure to conduct autopsies in suspicious deaths, providing jobs in return for silence by witnesses, drug abuse, improper acquisition and use of 900 FBI files, improper futures trading, murder, sexual abuse of employees, false testimony before a federal judge, shredding of documents, withholding and concealment of subpoenaed documents, fabricated charges against (and improper firing of) White House employees, inviting drug traffickers, foreign agents and participants in organized crime to the White House.

ARKANSAS ALTZHEIMER'S

Number of times that Clinton figures who testified in court or before Congress said that they didn't remember, didn't know, or something similar.

Bill Kennedy 116
Harold Ickes 148
Ricki Seidman 160
Bruce Lindsey 161
Bill Burton 191
Mark Gearan 221
Mack McLarty 233
Neil Egglseston 250
Hillary Clinton 250
John Podesta 264
Jennifer O'Connor 343
Dwight Holton 348
Patsy Thomasson 420
Jeff Eller 697

FROM THE WASHINGTON TIMES: In the portions of President Clinton's Jan. 17 deposition that have been made public in the Paula Jones case, his memory failed him 267 times. This is a list of his answers and how many times he gave each one.

I don't remember - 71
I don't know - 62
I'm not sure - 17
I have no idea - 10
I don't believe so - 9
I don't recall - 8
I don't think so - 8
I don't have any specific recollection - 6
I have no recollection - 4
Not to my knowledge - 4
I just don't remember - 4
I don't believe - 4
I have no specific recollection - 3
I might have - 3
I don't have any recollection of that - 2 I don't have a specific memory - 2
I don't have any memory of that - 2
I just can't say - 2
I have no direct knowledge of that - 2
I don't have any idea - 2
Not that I recall - 2
I don't believe I did - 2
I can't remember - 2
I can't say - 2
I do not remember doing so - 2
Not that I remember - 2
I'm not aware - 1
I honestly don't know - 1
I don't believe that I did - 1
I'm fairly sure - 1
I have no other recollection - 1
I'm not positive - 1
I certainly don't think so - 1
I don't really remember - 1
I would have no way of remembering that - 1
That's what I believe happened - 1
To my knowledge, no - 1
To the best of my knowledge - 1
To the best of my memory - 1
I honestly don't recall - 1
I honestly don't remember - 1
That's all I know - 1
I don't have an independent recollection of that - 1
I don't actually have an independent memory of that - 1
As far as I know - 1
I don't believe I ever did that - 1
That's all I know about that - 1
I'm just not sure - 1
Nothing that I remember - 1
I simply don't know - 1
I would have no idea - 1
I don't know anything about that - 1
I don't have any direct knowledge of that - 1
I just don't know - 1
I really don't know - 1
I can't deny that, I just -- I have no memory of that at all - 1

ARKANSAS SUDDEN DEATH SYNDROME

- Number of persons in the Clinton machine orbit who are alleged to have committed suicide: 9
- Number known to have been murdered: 12
- Number who died in plane crashes: 6
- Number who died in single car automobile accidents: 3
- Number of one-person sking fatalities: 1
- Number of key witnesses who have died of heart attacks while in federal custody under questionable circumstances: 1
- Number of unexplained deaths: 4
- Total suspicious deaths: 46
- Number of northern Mafia killings during peak years of 1968-78: 30
- Number of Dixie Mafia killings during same period: 156

It is important in considering these fatal incidents to bear in mind the following:

The fact that anomalies need to be investigated further carries no presumption of how a death actually occurred, only that there remain serious questions that require answers.

The possibility of foul play must be taken seriously in a major criminal conspiracy in which over two score individuals and firms have been convicted and over 100 witnesses have pled the Fifth Amendment or fled the country.

If foul play did occur in any of these cases, that fact by itself does not carry the presumption that the the Clinton machine was involved. Given the footprints of organized crime, drug trade, foreign espionage, and intelligence agencies on the trail of the Clinton story, such a assumption would not be warranted. It is also well to keep in mind the classic prohibition era movie in which the corrupt poitician's job was not to engage in illegal acts but to avoid noticing them.
ARKANSAS MONEY MANAGEMENT

- Amount of an alleged electronic transfer from the Arkansas Development Financial Authority to a bank in the Cayman Islands during 1980s: $50 million
- Grand Cayman's population: 18,000
- Number of commercial banks: 570
- Number of bank regulators: 1
- Amount Arkansas state pension fund invested in high-risk repos in the mid-80s in one purchase in April 1985: $52 million through the Worthen Bank.
- Number of days thereafter that the state's brokerage firm went belly up: 3
- Amount Arkansas pension fund dropped overnight as a result: 15%
- Percent of Worthen bank that Mochtar Riady bought over the next four months to bail out the bank and the then governor, Bill Clinton: 40%.
- Percent of purchasers from the Clintons and McDougals of resort lots who lost the land because of the sleazy financing provisions: over 50%

THE MEDIA

- Number of journalists covering Whitewater who have been fired, transferred off the beat, resigned or otherwise gotten into trouble because of their work on the scandals (Doug Frantz, Jim Wooten, Richard Behar, Christopher Ruddy, Michael Isikoff, David Eisenstadt, Yinh Chan, Jonathan Broder, James R. Norman, Zoh Hieronimus): 10

FRIENDS OF BILL

- Number of times John Huang took the 5th Amendment in answer to questions during a Judicial Watch deposition: 1,000
- Visits made to the White House by investigation subjects Johnny Chung, James Riady, John Huang, and Charlie Trie. 160
- Number of campaign contributors who got overnights at the White House in the two years before the 1996 election: 577
- Number of members of Thomas Boggs's law firm who have held top positions in the Clinton administration. 18
- Number of times John Huang was briefed by CIA: 37
- Number of calls Huang made from Commerce Department to Lippo banks: 261
- Number of intelligence reports Huang read while at Commerce Department: 500

UNEXPLAINED PHENOMENA

- FBI files misappropriated by the White House: c. 900
- Estimated number of witnesses quoted in FBI files misappropriated by the White House: 18,000
- Number of witnesses who developed medical problems at critical points in Clinton scandals investigation (Tucker, Hale, both McDougals, Lindsey): 5
- Problem areas listed in a memo by Clinton's own lawyer in preparation for the president's defense: 40
- Number of witnesses and critics of Clinton subjected to IRS audit: 45
- Number of names placed in a White House secret database without the knowledge of those named: c. 200,000
- Number of women involved with Clinton who claim to have been physically threatened (Sally Perdue, Gennifer Flowers, Kathleen Willey, Linda Tripp, Elizabeth Ward Gracen, Juantia Broaddrick): 6
- Number of men involved in the Clinton scandals who have been beaten up or claimed to have been intimidated: 10

THE HIDDEN ELECTION

USA Today calls it "the hidden election," in which nearly 7,000 state legislative seats are decided with only minimal media and public attention. But there was an important national story here: evidence of the disaster that Bill Clinton was for the Democratic Party. According to the National Conference of State Legislatures, Democrats held a 1,542 seat lead in the state bodies in 1990. As of 1998 that lead had shrunk to 288. That's a loss of over 1,200 state legislative seats, nearly all of them under Clinton. Across the US, the Democrats controled only 65 more state senate seats than the Republicans.

Further, in 1992, the Democrats controlled 17 more state legislatures than the Republicans. After 1998, the Republicans controlled one more than the Democrats. Not only was this a loss of 9 legislatures under Clinton, but it was the first time since 1954 that the GOP had controlled more state legislatures than the Democrats (they tied in 1968).

Here's what happened to the Democrats under Clinton, based on our latest figures:

- GOP seats gained in House since Clinton became president: 48
- GOP seats gained in Senate since Clinton became president: 8
- GOP governorships gained since Clinton became president: 11
- GOP state legislative seats gained since Clinton became president: 1,254
as of 1998
- State legislatures taken over by GOP since Clinton became president: 9
- Democrat officeholders who have become Republicans since Clinton became
president: 439 as of 1998
- Republican officeholders who have become Democrats since Clinton became president: 3

THE CLINTON LEGACY: LONELY VOICES

Here are some of the all too rare public officials, reporters, and others who spoke truth to the dismally corrupt power of Bill and Hill Clinton's political machine -- some at risk to their careers, others at risk to their lives. A few points to note:

- Those corporatist media reporters who attempted to report the story often found themselves muzzled; some even lost their jobs. The only major dailies that consistently handled the story well were the Wall Street Journal and the Washington Times.

- Nobody on this list has gotten rich and many you may not have even heard of. Taking on the Clintons typically has not been a happy or rewarding experience. At least ten reporters were fired, transferred off their beats, resigned, or otherwise got into trouble because of their work on the scandals.

- Contrary to the popular impression, the politics of those listed ranges from the left to the right, and from the ideological to the independent.

PUBLIC OFFICIALS

MIGUEL RODRIGUEZ was a prosecutor on the staff of Kenneth Starr. His attempts to uncover the truth in the Vincent Foster death case were repeatedly foiled and he was the subject of planted stories undermining his credibility and implying that he was unstable. Rodriguez eventually resigned.

JEAN DUFFEY: Head of a joint federal-county drug task force in Arkansas. Her first instructions from her boss: "Jean, you are not to use the drug task force to investigate any public official." Duffey's work, however, led deep into the heart of the Dixie Mafia, including members of the Clinton machine and the investigation of the so-called "train deaths." Ambrose Evans-Pritchard reports that when she produced a star witness who could testify to Clinton's involvement with cocaine, the local prosecuting attorney, Dan Harmon issued a subpoena for all the task force records, including "the incriminating files on his own activities. If Duffey had complied it would have exposed 30 witnesses and her confidential informants to violent retributions. She refused." Harmon issued a warrant for her arrest and friendly cops told her that there was a $50,000 price on her head. She eventually fled to Texas. The once-untouchable Harmon was later convicted of racketeering, extortion and drug dealing.

BILL DUNCAN: An IRS investigator in Arkansas who drafted some 30 federal indictments of Arkansas figures on money laundering and other charges. Clinton biographer Roger Morris quotes a source who reviewed the evidence: "Those indictments were a real slam dunk if there ever was one." The cases were suppressed, many in the name of "national security." Duncan was never called to testify. Other IRS agents and state police disavowed Duncan and turned on him. Said one source, "Somebody outside ordered it shut down and the walls went up."

RUSSELL WELCH: An Arkansas state police detective working with Duncan. Welch developed a 35-volume, 3,000 page archive on drug and money laundering operations at Mena. His investigation was so compromised that a high state police official even let one of the targets of the probe look through the file. At one point, Welch was sprayed in the face with poison, later identified by the Center for Disease Control as anthrax. He would write in his diary, "I feel like I live in Russia, waiting for the secret police to pounce down. A government has gotten out of control. Men find themselves in positions of power and suddenly crimes become legal." Welch is no longer with the state police.

DAN SMALTZ: Smaltz did an outstanding job investigating and prosecuting charges involving illegal payoffs to Agriculture Secretary Mike Espy, yet was treated with disparaging and highly inaccurate reporting by the likes of the David Broder and the NY Times. Espy was acquitted under a law that made it necessary to not only prove that he accepted gratuities but that he did something specific in return. On the other hand, Tyson Foods copped a plea in the same case, paying $6 million in fines and serving four years' probation. The charge: that Tyson had illegally offered Espy $12,000 in airplane rides, football tickets and other payoffs. In the Espy investigation, Smaltz obtained 15 convictions and collected over $11 million in fines and civil penalties. Offenses for which convictions were obtained included false statements, concealing money from prohibited sources, illegal gratuities, illegal contributions, falsifying records, interstate transportation of stolen property, money laundering, and illegal receipt of USDA subsidies. In addition, Janet Reno blocked Smaltz from pursuing leads aimed at allegations of major drug trafficking in Arkansas and payoffs to the then governor of the state, WJ Clinton. Espy had become Ag secretary only after being flown to Arkansas to get the approval of chicken king Don Tyson.

DAVID SCHIPPERS was House impeachment counsel and a Chicago Democrat. He did a highly creditable job but since he didn't fit the right-wing conspiracy theory, the Clintonista media downplayed his work. Thus most Americans don't know that he told Newsmax, "Let me tell you, if we had a chance to put on a case, I would have put live witnesses before the committee. But the House leadership, and I'm not talking about Henry Hyde, they just killed us as far as time was concerned. I begged them to let me take it into this year. Then I screamed for witnesses before the Senate. But there was nothing anybody could do to get those Senators to show any courage. They told us essentially, you're not going to get 67 votes so why are you wasting our time." Schippers also said that while a number of representatives had looked at additional evidence kept under seal in a nearby House building, not a single senator did.

JOHN CLARKE: When Patrick Knowlton stopped to relieve himself in Ft. Marcy Park 70 minutes before the discovery of Vince Foster's body, he saw things that got him into deep trouble. His interview statements were falsified and prior to testifying he claims he was overtly harassed by more than a score of men in a classic witness intimidation technique. In some cases there were witnesses. John Clarke was his dogged lawyer in the witness intimidation case that was largely ignored by the media, even when the three-judge panel overseeing the Starr investigation permitted Knowlton to append a 20 page addendum to the Starr Report.

OTHER

THE ARKANSAS COMMITTEE: What would later be known as the Vast Right Wing Conspiracy actually began on the left - as a group of progressive students at the University of Arkansas had formed the Arkansas Committee to look into Mena, drugs, money laundering, and Arkansas politics. This committee was the source of some of the important early Clinton stories including those published in the Progressive Review.

CLINTON ADMINISTRATION SCANDALS E-LIST: Moderated by Ray Heizer, this list was subject to all the idiosyncrasies of Internet bulletin boards, but nonetheless proved invaluable to researchers and journalists.

JOURNALISTS

JERRY SEPER of the Washington Times was far and away the best beat reporter of the story, handling it week after week in the best tradition of investigative journalism. If other reporters had followed Seper's lead, the history of the Clintons' machine might have been quite different.

AMBROSE EVANS-PRITCHARD of the London Telegraph did a remarkable job of digging into some of the seamiest tales from Arkansas and the Clinton past. Other early arrivals on the scene were Alexander Cockburn and Jeff Gerth.

CHRISTOPHER RUDDY, among other fine reports on the Clinton scandals, did the best job laying out the facts in the Vince Foster death case.

ROGER MORRIS AND SALLY DENTON wrote a major expose of events at Mena, but at the last moment the Washington Post's brass ordered the story killed. It was published by Penthouse and later included in Morris' "Partners in Power," the best biography of the Clintons.

OTHERS who helped get parts of the story out included reporters Philip Weiss, Carl Limbacher, Wes Phelan, David Bresnahan, William Sammon, Liza Myers, Mara Leveritt, Matt Drudge, Jim Ridgeway, Nat Hentoff, Michael Isikoff, Christopher Hitchens and Michael Kelly. Also independent investigator Hugh Sprunt and former White House FBI agent Gary Aldrich.

SAM SMITH of the Progressive Review wrote the first book (Shadows of Hope, University of"

You've previously stopped answering my questions EMS so I don't expect much to change now, but a meta-question. Do you genuinely not recognize the textbook manipulation techniques apparent in this (again) link (rather than your own expressed thoughts)?

I'm not asking if you believe everything in the post, clearly you do, I just curious if you can identity WHY the information is packaged in the way it is and how it is technically crafted to illicit the response it does?

There is a science to this if you're unaware of it.

reub
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10/23/2016  11:27 AM
Crooked Hillary cooked the crooked polls:

"Hey, when can we meet? I also want to get your Atlas folks to recommend oversamples for our polling before we start in February. By market, regions, etc. I want to get this all compiled into one set of recommendations so we can maximize what we get out of our media polling."

https://wikileaks.org/podesta-emails/emailid/26551

earthmansurfer
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10/23/2016  11:32 AM
Knickoftime wrote:You've previously stopped answering my questions EMS so I don't expect much to change now, but a meta-question. Do you genuinely not recognize the textbook manipulation techniques apparent in this (again) link (rather than your own expressed thoughts)?

I'm not asking if you believe everything in the post, clearly you do, I just curious if you can identity WHY the information is packaged in the way it is and how it is technically crafted to illicit the response it does?

There is a science to this if you're unaware of it.

I can't agree with how you hand me guilt regarding a lack of replies. We've discussed this. You always ignored most of my good points, but did answer most questions. You picked and chose, essentially. If I remember correctly, you mentioned you only replied to my questions, ignoring true statements, so let's not be too quick to judge here - this was after I asked you. I thought this was cleared up.

I am more concerned with the charges of inciting violence and the result, than I am the packaging of the video. Now, before I get into the packaging of evidence, let's not derail the real issue here. I posted something that was clearly illegal for the DNC to do and instead of getting into that, you ask about textbook manipulation (and don't mention the firings and resignation???)

This kind of activity gets people put in prison. Just as deleting tens of thousands of emails AFTER the State Department asked for them should!

Now, let's look at the actual case here. Is it absolutely not sickening that peoples lives were endangered by Clinton and the DNC regarding inciting violence at Trump rallies?
That is the root question here. We have it on video, quote after quote after quote.

The intuitive mind is a sacred gift and the rational mind is a faithful servant. We have created a society that honors the servant and has forgotten the gift. Albert Einstein
Bonn1997
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10/23/2016  12:31 PM
reub wrote:Crooked Hillary cooked the crooked polls:

"Hey, when can we meet? I also want to get your Atlas folks to recommend oversamples for our polling before we start in February. By market, regions, etc. I want to get this all compiled into one set of recommendations so we can maximize what we get out of our media polling."

https://wikileaks.org/podesta-emails/emailid/26551


I went to that link. All it says is some guy named Tom sent that e-mail.
Welpee
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10/23/2016  12:48 PM
Bonn1997 wrote:
earthmansurfer wrote:
Welpee wrote:
earthmansurfer wrote:A bit for fun, but this guy has predicted (using a model) all but one presidential election back to 1912 correctly.

http://legalinsurrection.com/2016/10/suny-prof-with-reliable-election-model-predicts-87-chance-of-trump-win/

Helmut Norpoth, a professor at Stony Brook University on Long Island, has developed a model for predicting elections which, when applied, has correctly predicted every presidential election back to 1912 with one exception – the 1960 election.

He has been predicting a Trump win for months and he’s standing by his forecast.


UNY professor says Trump win at least 87 percent certain; other polls ‘bunk’

A SUNY professor continues to project Donald Trump as the likely winner of this year’s election and he’s critiquing polls that predict the opposite in a new opinion piece.


Helmut Norpoth has been predicting a Trump victory since early this year. His model currently projects a win for the Republican with a certainty of 87 to 99 percent…

That flies in the face of just about every other major election forecast out there, which mostly give an edge to Democrat Hillary Clinton, notes the Daily Mail.

Norpoth wrote in The Hill that although the race looks decided, current polling methods are “bunk.”

The projections for Clinton are all based on opinion polls, which are flawed because they don’t reflect actions, Norpoth wrote. They’re about what voters think of Clinton or Trump, but they can’t tell us exactly how voters will act on those thoughts.

“It is ingrained in all of us that voting is civic duty,” he says. “So nearly all of us say, oh yes, I’ll vote, and then many will not follow through.”

Instead of opinion polling, Norpoth relies on statistics from candidates’ performances in party primaries and patterns in the electoral cycle to forecast results. The model correctly predicted the victor in every presidential election since 1996, according to the Daily Mail.

1 min on his methodology

I call BS on his "methodology." It's based on how somebody did in the primaries against the 2nd best opponent?

1) The 2nd best republican (Cruz) is far less popular than the 2nd best democrat (Sanders)
2) The republicans had 16 people running, very diluted field of candidates.

This guy would be the Dick Morris of the 2016 election if anybody knew who he was. And like Morris, he'll have some excuse on election day why his rock solid methodology didn't work this year, though I doubt anyone will be chasing him down to ask what happened.

This would be like looking at every previous NBA champion to seeing each team had one left handed 6'9" guy with a goatee and predicting the Sacramento Kings are winning the championship this year if they were the only team in the league with a guy who fit this description. Trump supporters are searching high and low for optimism.

Except his model has been working for 20 years.


You can find tons of people who have gotten every election right for the past 20 or more years, which basically just means they were right 5 or 6 times (most of which were not close elections). It's meaningless. I remember about a year ago a research team at Western Illinois University that had gotten every election right since 1975 was saying Bernie Sanders would be the next US President!
And there's usually no verifiable documentation that they called all of these previous elections accurately. Kinda like Trump calling the Iraq invasion a mistake after the fact and claiming he was right all along.
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10/23/2016  12:54 PM    LAST EDITED: 10/23/2016  12:55 PM
earthmansurfer wrote:Love him or hate him, Trump is proposing a 100 day action plan to start his administration: (I jotted these down)

1. Constitutional amendment to impose term limits on ALL members of congress
2. Federal hiring freeze and reduction through attrition (outside of military, public safety and public health)
3. Requirement for every new Federal Regulation, 2 existing regulations must be eliminated
4. 5 year ban on White House and Congressional officials becoming lobbyists, after they leave government service.
5. Lifetime ban on White House officials lobbying on behalf of a foreign government.
6. Complete ban on foreign lobbyists raising money for American elections

and 7 actions to protect American Workers:
1. He will TOTALLY renegotiate or exit NAFTA (#2205) (Thanks Mr. Bill Clinton for that one.)
2. Withdrawal from TPP
3. Direct Secretary of Treasury to label China a currency manipulator
4. Direct Secretary of Commerce to identify all foreign trading abuses that unfairly impact American workers... and end them immediately.
5. Lift restrictions on production of 50 Trillion Dollars of job producing American energy reserves (e.g. shale, oil, clean coal)
6. Lift Obama Clinton road blocks that will allow vital energy projects to go forward.
7. Cancel BILLIONS of payments to UN climate change program to fix our water and environmental infrastructure.

5 actions to restore security and constitutional rule of law:
1. Cancel every unconstitutional executive action, memorandum and order issued by Obama
2. Begin process of finding replacement for Justice Scalia
3. Cancel all Fed funding for sanctuary cities
4. Begin removing more than 2 million illegal immigrants (drug dealers, gang heads, killers) from our country and cancel visas to foreign countries that won't take them back.
5. Suspend immigration from terror prone regions where vetting can't safely occur.

And
Middle class tax relief
pause - tired of writing down...
(Not saying I agree with all, I don't, but it seems like he really wants to change things for the common person and remove the corruption from politics)

I keep hearing Trump's "words" mean less than Clinton's "actions" when it comes to his sexual allegations. Yet, this is all just words. What "actions" has Trump engaged in during his life to indicate he gives a bleep about middle class? And hiring people to help make him rich is a cop out. What has he done for the middle class that didn't personally benefit to him?
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10/23/2016  1:03 PM    LAST EDITED: 10/23/2016  1:04 PM
earthmansurfer wrote:I've mentioned my #1 worry with the Clintons is corruption and I wonder why is the firing and resignation of 2 DNC workers is not being discussed more?
"We literally have someone in the Clinton campaign saying that they coordinate between the DNC and their super PACs. We have another saying that morals, ethics, and even law doesn't matter as long as they win. We have them saying they staged multiple protests, the Chicago one being extremely violent (more of a riot than a protest). They plant people at events to antagonize and incite violence."

Was the #1 Youtube trending video as well as on Twitter.

Robert Creamer's connection to the White House - Clinton and Obama

Video connecting Wikileaks releases to DNC staged protests

Wikileaks confirming 1pm calls for "Trump Rapid Response" team - it was Zulema Rodriguez who stated this in the video and claimed responsibility for Arizona highway shutdown
https://wikileaks.org/dnc-emails/emailid/12012

I have a more important question, why are people OK with wikileaks period? A foreign entity trying to impact our election and committing a crime hacking into people's email. I guess it's just like hate and insults, it's all good as long as it's directed at people you don't like? And when they change their mind and start targeting republicans/conservatives, then it becomes a problem that must be stopped. Otherwise, keep it coming?
earthmansurfer
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10/23/2016  1:40 PM
Welpee wrote:
earthmansurfer wrote:I've mentioned my #1 worry with the Clintons is corruption and I wonder why is the firing and resignation of 2 DNC workers is not being discussed more?
"We literally have someone in the Clinton campaign saying that they coordinate between the DNC and their super PACs. We have another saying that morals, ethics, and even law doesn't matter as long as they win. We have them saying they staged multiple protests, the Chicago one being extremely violent (more of a riot than a protest). They plant people at events to antagonize and incite violence."

Was the #1 Youtube trending video as well as on Twitter.

Robert Creamer's connection to the White House - Clinton and Obama

Video connecting Wikileaks releases to DNC staged protests

Wikileaks confirming 1pm calls for "Trump Rapid Response" team - it was Zulema Rodriguez who stated this in the video and claimed responsibility for Arizona highway shutdown
https://wikileaks.org/dnc-emails/emailid/12012

I have a more important question, why are people OK with wikileaks period? A foreign entity trying to impact our election and committing a crime hacking into people's email. I guess it's just like hate and insults, it's all good as long as it's directed at people you don't like? And when they change their mind and start targeting republicans/conservatives, then it becomes a problem that must be stopped. Otherwise, keep it coming?

More important question? Says you. It is pretty clear Clintons campaign is now falling apart, and there are no questions here, no deeper discussion into what they actually did.

The recent issue here is Hillary Clinton and the DNC inciting violence at Trump rallies (and getting caught).
And your response is to ask "Why Wikileaks?" - You should be ecstatic we finally have a source of checks and balances.
But to answer your question, considering our media is bought and sold by 6 families, exists for profit, etc, we need another source. But that is besides the point.

Worry less about the messenger and just look at the illegal messages. Wikileaks just saved us, again.

The intuitive mind is a sacred gift and the rational mind is a faithful servant. We have created a society that honors the servant and has forgotten the gift. Albert Einstein
Knickoftime
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10/23/2016  2:16 PM
earthmansurfer wrote:
Knickoftime wrote:You've previously stopped answering my questions EMS so I don't expect much to change now, but a meta-question. Do you genuinely not recognize the textbook manipulation techniques apparent in this (again) link (rather than your own expressed thoughts)?

I'm not asking if you believe everything in the post, clearly you do, I just curious if you can identity WHY the information is packaged in the way it is and how it is technically crafted to illicit the response it does?

There is a science to this if you're unaware of it.

I can't agree with how you hand me guilt regarding a lack of replies. We've discussed this. You always ignored most of my good points, but did answer most questions. You picked and chose, essentially. If I remember correctly, you mentioned you only replied to my questions, ignoring true statements, so let's not be too quick to judge here - this was after I asked you. I thought this was cleared up.

Hand you guilt? Judge?

I made an accurate observation.

I don't recall any good points. Yes, like every and anyone else, I respond to what I'm inclined to respond to. That is in no way an admission I agree with things I didn't happen to respond to.

I am more concerned with the charges of inciting violence and the result, than I am the packaging of the video.

I wasn't referring to the video. I was referring to the novella you copied and pasted along with it. That too as specific structure and form designed to illicit a specific response. You ignored the question I asked about that. Why?

All I asked if you were aware of the how the sausage is made. If you recognize the techniques used. It's a simple question.

I posted something that was clearly illegal for the DNC to do and instead of getting into that

I'm pretty certain I've responded to that in detail, haven't i? The gentlemen involved should be removed from their position (they have) and their claims fully investigated.

Just as deleting tens of thousands of emails AFTER the State Department asked for them should!

Nobody is begrudging your right to your personal opinion on that matter.

Now, let's look at the actual case here. Is it absolutely not sickening that peoples lives were endangered by Clinton and the DNC regarding inciting violence at Trump rallies? That is the root question here. We have it on video, quote after quote after quote.

You can't even ask a question fairly.

Yes, if any of the things alledged actually occurred, then yes, it would be sickening and shameful. There is no place for that in the democratic process.

But whether any of those things were actually incited by the DNC (as opposed to some crackpots in DNC circles) and the Clinton campaign has not been established. And I don't believe even the Trump campaign is pushing that narrative anymore, despite the Trump Foundation funding (perhaps illegally) Project Veritas.

Knickoftime
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10/23/2016  2:36 PM
earthmansurfer wrote:The recent issue here is Hillary Clinton and the DNC inciting violence at Trump rallies (and getting caught).

No, again, you've skipped ahead a step.

And since you and I agree any such actions should be condemned I can ask you this question fairly... and I'll even put in in a form you respond to.

Are you equally appalled at Trump inciting violence (and succeeding) at Trump rallies?

And your response is to ask "Why Wikileaks?" - You should be ecstatic we finally have a source of checks and balances.
But to answer your question, considering our media is bought and sold by 6 families, exists for profit, etc, we need another source. But that is besides the point.

Worry less about the messenger and just look at the illegal messages. Wikileaks just saved us, again.

Since you seem not to understand the issue at hand. Wikileaks is the venue. The entire intelligence community is certain the sources of the hacks is the Russians.

I believe the question as asked and understood properly is are you okay with a foreign power hacking one of the U.S. democratic institutions.

No need to embellish the answer, it is a simple yes or not question.

Where the heck is Hillary Clinton?

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