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martin wrote:That's unreal

I don't see how hospitals won't be overwhelmed with those kinds of growth rates- not just admissions but staff are going to get infected either inside the hospitals or in their daily lives- mass disruption everywhere as people have to self isolate so can't show up for work

franco12 wrote:

martin wrote:That's unreal

Basically we're all eventually going to get, even if vaccinated - that is my thought, not anything I've read.

But- if you are vaccinated, and get it, you will likely be safe thereafter:

https://www.oregonlive.com/coronavirus/2021/12/covid-19-infection-after-vaccine-gives-super-immunity-study-indicates.html

People who get COVID-19 despite being vaccinated against the disease could develop “super immunity” against future coronavirus infections, Oregon Health & Science University researchers have found.

“This is unusually high, unusually effective,” lead researcher Dr. Fikadu Tafesse said of his findings, published Thursday in the Journal of the American Medical Association. “You get an extremely, extremely high level of protection.”

That’s what it’s looking like- Basically it’s going to be so prevalent and is so contagious, that we are likely all going to get it, but yep, the hope is the vaccines will hopefully lessen the severity of it (though we’ll likely have less access to hospital treatment too at it’s peak). Don’t think lockdowns are an option this time, as it spreads so quickly I’m not sure what the point of buying some time would be

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smackeddog wrote:So basically, from what I understand, it's looking like:

- The hope is that this strain is more spreadable because it's more efficient at sticking and replicating in your nose/throat (so you cough and sneeze a lot more of it, passing it on to others), but that it's hopefully less effective at going on to sticking and replicating in your lungs, which is where it does the most damage. BUT this isn't fully proven yet.

-We're hoping it's milder but can't say for certain (eg in S Africa it might have seemed to have fewer hospitalizations but that might have been because more people had better defenses vs it due to vaccinations and prior infections

- 1 or 2 doses of the Vaccines at this point are unlikely to stop you getting INFECTED, so if you're exposed to the virus, where as with previous strains it would likely be blocked from even making itself at home in your throat and replicating, with this strain (plus the waning of the vaccine over time), it won't be blocked from replicating in you so you will also then likely be passing it on to other people.

- A third booster shot will restore SOME but not all of your ability to stop INFECTION (definitely not what it was vs previous strains when you first got vaccinated, but quite a high percentage and much higher than without the booster shot)

- Some of this boost vs INFECTION will be negated by the sheer prevalence of this (so many people will have it and its so much more spreadable, you'll encounter it much more often and at much higher levels)

- the benefit of vaccinations (especially booster shots) is therefore not to guard against INFECTION (that's a hopeful gain though), but to lessen SEVERITY of the disease once you're infected. Looking like hopefully even without the booster this will hold up, but a booster shot should hopefully boost this further.

-the benefit of lessening SEVERITY is to reduce the tolls on hospitals and medical services. Even if this strain turns out to be milder, the sheer spread of this could overwhelm hospitals really quickly.

Great summary.

Clean wrote:

smackeddog wrote:So basically, from what I understand, it's looking like:

- The hope is that this strain is more spreadable because it's more efficient at sticking and replicating in your nose/throat (so you cough and sneeze a lot more of it, passing it on to others), but that it's hopefully less effective at going on to sticking and replicating in your lungs, which is where it does the most damage. BUT this isn't fully proven yet.

-We're hoping it's milder but can't say for certain (eg in S Africa it might have seemed to have fewer hospitalizations but that might have been because more people had better defenses vs it due to vaccinations and prior infections

- 1 or 2 doses of the Vaccines at this point are unlikely to stop you getting INFECTED, so if you're exposed to the virus, where as with previous strains it would likely be blocked from even making itself at home in your throat and replicating, with this strain (plus the waning of the vaccine over time), it won't be blocked from replicating in you so you will also then likely be passing it on to other people.

- A third booster shot will restore SOME but not all of your ability to stop INFECTION (definitely not what it was vs previous strains when you first got vaccinated, but quite a high percentage and much higher than without the booster shot)

- Some of this boost vs INFECTION will be negated by the sheer prevalence of this (so many people will have it and its so much more spreadable, you'll encounter it much more often and at much higher levels)

- the benefit of vaccinations (especially booster shots) is therefore not to guard against INFECTION (that's a hopeful gain though), but to lessen SEVERITY of the disease once you're infected. Looking like hopefully even without the booster this will hold up, but a booster shot should hopefully boost this further.

-the benefit of lessening SEVERITY is to reduce the tolls on hospitals and medical services. Even if this strain turns out to be milder, the sheer spread of this could overwhelm hospitals really quickly.

Great summary.

100%, thanks

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