Sorry for a poker analogy, but it fits...
Sometimes, even when you know the other guy has trips, and you are drawing to the flush on the river card, you just have to go for it and hope your suit shows on the river. It's not logical and it's certainly risky. But it's a calculated risk. Knowing the odds, you would be right-minded to fold. But when the tournament is on the line and you're short stack, you just say I need to be in this.
When Donnie made the Houston trade we were still very much in the Lebron tournament. To fold at that point would have been total insanity, even though the odds were not in our favor. In hindsight, it was a really bad trade, not so much because of Hill (he wasn't special) but because of the picks and the reduced flexibility we have now.
But I'd do it again if the chance to land a talent like Lebron was still dangling because he IS that special. As far as Melo goes...
From RealGM:
A source with knowledge of Carmelo Anthony's strategy said the superstar is fully prepared to play the entire season without signing a contract extension."Carmelo is not afraid to go into next year and test the CBA," said the source.
One factor that could contribute to Anthony's willingness to play out the season is the possibility that the NBA could seek to roll back all salaries, regardless of whether the contract was signed before the new CBA or not. If so, Anthony would be in the same financial position whether he signs an extension now or waits until free agency.
The franchise-player designation would be a way for the Nuggets to gain additional rights over Anthony they don't currently have. But Stern himself seemed wary of this concept interfering with players' rights.
"I think that the franchise player is an interesting concept, I’m sure it will come up in collective bargaining," Stern said, "but I think players are entitled to get the benefit of what they bargained for. And the union bargains for free agency, the players serve out a certain contract length .... It’s hard for me to buy your premise that somebody who’s played for a certain number of years, under a contract, and is a free agent is thereby dictating where he’s going to play. He’s exercising his rights."
Read more: http://basketball.realgm.com/src_wiretap_archives/69712/20101022/source_melo_unafraid_to_test_new_cba/#ixzz13BsCKtE2
That doesn't mean he WILL play out the season. But for all of those who say "do whatever it takes now to get him, even if we have to trade away all the yoots", I say: "Let's play the hand we are dealt". Melo has all the leverage. Spike Lee has his cel phone on speed dial. Donnie Walnuts is not a team wrecker, despite the Houston trade. He has his eyes on the bigger prize (i.e., long term viability) not the near-term rewards of adding a superlative scorer.
I am happy to let this play out and see how Donnie does next summer.
10/22/2010 2:29 PM
), but because the Knicks gave up a sh!itload of useful assets just for the opportunity to get dissed.