Posted by Caseloads:
can someone please post the insider stuff from ESPN on Sherridan - Bulls bright future
Thanks!
This article?
On the verge of elimination, Bulls face uncertain future
By Chris Sheridan
ESPN.com
Archive
AUBURN HILLS, Mich. -- One more loss for the Chicago Bulls and we'll have our answer to the pre-series prognostication that this matchup will serve as a referendum on the Ben Wallace signing.
One more loss for the Bulls, which could come as soon as Tuesday night in Game 5, and it'll be the Pistons who'll go down -- at least for the time being -- as the team that made the better decision.
Big Ben was supposed to be the Bulls' answer this postseason.
Now, that doesn't mean the Bulls' decision was entirely wrong. Big Ben helped them get past the Heat in the first round, and he kept them from getting swept with his best game of the postseason two nights ago.
Still ...
If you spent $60 million to bring Wallace in as part of the plan to make yourself a championship contender, you now know that you're still at least one player away from rising to that upper echelon.
So then it becomes a question of what is that piece? And what is the price general manager John Paxson will need to pay? The Bulls have the assets to get almost any deal done, but it becomes a question of how many of those pieces they'd be willing to lump together? A package built around Luol Deng was deemed too expensive when the Bulls had a chance to get Pau Gasol from the Memphis Grizzlies before the trade deadline in February, and Deng's steady if unspectacular postseason has likely cemented his status as an untouchable.
But would Deng still be untouchable if Kevin Garnett or Jermaine O'Neal suddenly became available? Or what if Chicago has a chance to get a Zach Randolph or an Amare Stoudemire?
Perhaps a better question: What if none of those big names is gettable? What then?
So many questions, eh?
Well then, let's start breaking the situation down one question at a time:
Q: What'll be the first order of business if the Bulls go down Tuesday night?
A: Waiting one week for the draft lottery. The Bulls own the rights to the New York Knicks' lottery pick from the Eddy Curry trade. It's a prohibitive long shot with Chicago having only 19 of 1,000 ping-pong ball combinations (Memphis, by comparison, has 250), but it's not completely impossible, for the Bulls to win the No. 1 or No. 2 pick. (The lottery determines the top three picks, not just the No. 1 pick.) But if the Bulls get the first or second pick, all bets are off as far as possible trades, because Greg Oden or Kevin Durant fits the bill as the missing piece.
Q: And if they don't win the draft lottery?
A: Then, obviously, all bets are on. Chicago would end up with a pick in the No. 9 to No. 12 range, and in a draft as deep as this upcoming one, that pick will have a lot of value. The Bulls could keep it and go after one of the more skilled big men, such as Florida's Al Horford or Joakim Noah, Georgetown's Roy Hibbert or Washington's Spencer Hawes. But will any of those players be enough to get the Bulls past the Pistons a year from now? Probably not.
Getting a thumbs up on a Kevin Garnett deal could be pretty complicated for the Bulls.
Q: So why don't they just go out and get Garnett?
A: Easier said than done. First of all, the Timberwolves say they aren't trading him. Second, KG will make $22 million next season, and salaries in most NBA trades have to be within 125 percent of each other. Unless an under-the-cap third team can be brought in to broker a deal, that would mean Chicago would have to put together at least $17.6 million worth of salaries. If you exclude Wallace ($15.5 million) and Kirk Hinrich ($11 million, but a hard-to-deal base-year compensation player), you could lump together the Bulls' lottery pick ($1.7 million to $1.9 million), Tyrus Thomas ($3.5 million) and Chris Duhon ($3.2 million), and you'd still come up almost $9 million short.
Q: So how could Paxson overcome that $9 million shortage?
A: If he gave restricted free agent Andres Nocioni $7 million and unrestricted free agent P.J. Brown $2 million and included them as part of a sign-and-trade, that'd do it. But is Nocioni worth that much, especially given how poorly he has played against Detroit? Maybe not.
Q: Then how about Jermaine? Or Z-Bo? Or Stoudemire?
A: Those players don't make as much as Garnett, so in theory they'd be easier to come by. O'Neal will make $19.7 million, and Stoudemire and Randolph will each make $13.3 million. But in each case, those players' teams would have to be willing to part with them. And we haven't heard, at least definitively, that Indiana, Portland or Phoenix would be willing to move any of those players.
Q: OK, then. So what happens if all those big names mentioned above are unavailable?
A: Two things could happen: Paxson could target a lesser-salaried player who can score, rebound and pass out of the low post and try to make a trade for him, or he could look to the free-agent market.
Q: Are there any free agents with the skills to fit their needs?
A: Well, there's one guy they're getting a good look at right now who fits the bill. He's Antonio McDyess, who has an option to make $6.4 million next season. If he chooses not to exercise it, he'll be an unrestricted free agent.
Q: Will the Bulls have enough financial flexibility to get someone like McDyess?
A: P.J. Brown, Michael Sweetney, Malik Allen, Martynas Andriuskevicius and Andre Barrett come off the cap, and the Bulls have a team option on Viktor Khryapa's $1.9 million salary for next season, leaving them with about $45-$47 million in committed salary. Add on the money for the lottery pick, plus Nocioni's $6.05 million cap hold (his number against the cap until he signs a new deal or the Bulls renounce him), and the Bulls are up to around $54-$55 million, which is where the salary cap figures to be for 2007-08.
They'd still be $11 or $12 million below the luxury tax threshold, but they would not be able to offer McDyess or anyone else more than the mid-level exception unless they could swing a sign-and-trade. And if you think Joe Dumars is going to do any such thing to help a division rival, you'd be mistaken. Also, don't forget that the Bulls still must negotiate extensions with Deng and Ben Gordon this summer in addition to making a decision on whether to keep Nocioni. So there are a lot of moving parts here.
Q: So, what will the Bulls do?
A: First things first, y'all. They'll go out Tuesday night and try to win Game 5. If they don't, then they'll sort through the possibilities. At least there are plenty of them to consider.
Chris Sheridan covers the NBA for ESPN Insider.
If it didn’t work in Phoenix with Nash and Stoutamire... it’s just not a winning formula. It’s an entertaining formula, but not a winning one. - Derek Harper talking about D'Antoni's System
5/16/2007 12:24 AM
