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djsunyc
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Scattered opinions on Taft, Warrick
By Chad Ford, ESPN Insider
Chad Ford Archive
Most GMs will tell you that they always draft for talent, never for need. The problem with that theory is that most teams always need more big men.
The ability of an athletic, 6-foot-10 power player to change the course of a game or season is proven and most teams, especially bad ones, are always in the hunt for them.
That's why, year after year, the lottery is usually dominated by folks 6-8 and taller.
As many as five of this year's lottery picks will likely be power forwards. Nowadays they come in all shapes and sizes. Some are big, burly bruisers like Pittsburgh's Chris Taft and Duke's Shelden Williams. Others are skilled fours who dominate outside as well as inside like Utah's Andrew Bogut and Lithuania's Martynas Andriuskevicius. And then there's your yearly quota of guys like Hakim Warrick and Wayne Simien who would be lottery picks if they grew two or three more inches in college.
And here's the rub. Different scouts like different types of power forwards, meaning that the stock of everyone except Bogut and Spain's Fran Vasquez is all over the place. A few scouts still have Taft in the top five. Others have dropped him down into the late teens. Some scouts have Warrick in the late lottery, others in the 20s. A couple of scouts have Simien in the middle of the first round, others in the second round.
In other words, creating a consensus ranking of the top 10 power forwards this early, before we know who is drafting where, is almost impossible. It's a bit of a mess. Still we try. …
Here's a look at the top 10 power forwards in the 2005 NBA Draft.
Note: The list includes all players we believe might declare for the 2005 draft.
1. Andrew Bogut, Utah
The line: 7-0, 245, Sophomore
The skinny: After not even getting a sniff from scouts last spring when he wanted to come out, Bogut is a hot commodity. He's a consensus top-five player in the draft and could end up as the No. 1 pick if Marvin Williams and Chris Paul stay in school. Bogut does a little bit of everything. He's an excellent, physical rebounder with nice hands. He's a tremendous passer for a big. He's very difficult to guard because of his ability to score in both the high and low posts. Overall, he just has an excellent feel for the game. The only thing Bogut lacks is athleticism. He's been compared to both Vlade Divac and Brad Miller. While he might not have the upside of some of the other players in the draft, he has all the tools to be a talented four or five in the pros.
2. Chris Taft, Pittsburgh
The line: 6-10, 260, Sophomore
The skinny: After sleepwalking through the season, Taft might have done enough in the first round of the tournament to help resurrect his draft stock. Taft has the rare combination of size, athleticism, strength and power that had NBA scouts calling him a top-three pick before the season began. However, his lackluster performance during the regular season has raised serious questions about his work ethic and attitude. Despite the hand wringing, everyone still concedes that the chances of Taft's falling out of the top 10, if he declares, are slim. There's a dearth of athletic big men in college basketball. When one comes along, very few teams are willing to pass him up. If he can follow up his solid tournament performance with some great individual workouts, his stock will rise. He's not the stellar prospect he was at the beginning of the season, but in the right system, with the right motivation, Taft still has the most potential of any big guy on the board. Where that leaves him on draft night is anyone's guess. Most scouts still have him rated between the Nos. 5 and 10 picks. However, a couple have moved him entirely out of the lottery.
3. Martynas Andriuskevicius, Lithuania
The line: 7-3, 230, 19-years-old
The skinny: The Phoenix Suns almost drafted him with the No. 7 pick overall last year but balked when they found out that he'd have to stay in Lithuania at least one more season. While some scouts have been disappointed with the progress this year (Andriuskevicius has played very limited minutes for Zalgris), they are all still high on him. The ones who have seen him, that is. Multiple scouts have reported to Insider over the past few weeks that Zalgris has been hiding Andriuskevicius, holding him out of games and even shootarounds, limiting the scouts' ability to get a good read on his progress. At 7-3, Andriuskevicius is oozing with potential. He has great hands, is a fantastic passer and doesn't shy away from contact despite his thin frame. He's got great quickness for his size and is a very solid jumper. His biggest weakness is weakness. He still struggles to hold his position on the block. Andriuskevicius said on Thursday that he was determined to stay in the draft, despite mentor Arvydas Sabonis's counseling him to stay in Europe one more season. Sabonis knows what he's talking about. Andriuskevicius still needs to add at least another 20 pounds and needs more playing experience. He'll likely take a minimum of two years before he's ready to play in the NBA. However, with his size and with his skill set, someone will take him early.
4. Fran Vasquez, Spain
The line: 6-10, 230, 21-years-old
The skinny: If there is a sure thing in Europe, it's Vasquez. He's older, more mature and getting serious minutes for a Euroleague club. Vasquez is averaging 10.7 ppg and 5.5 rpg in roughly 23 mpg. He has excellent moves around the basket, a knack for crashing the offensive boards and a nice 15-foot jump shot. His athleticism, for a European big man, is excellent. Andriuskevicius, Nemanja Aleksandrov, Andrea Bargnani and Tiago Splitter might have a little more upside because of their size and versatility, but Vasquez looks like he has the talent to come in and immediately help an NBA team. The fact he already has a set, reasonable buyout also bodes well for him. Look for him to fall anywhere between Nos. 5 and 12 in the draft.
5. Tiago Splitter, Brazil
The line: 6-11, 245, 20-years-old
The skinny: After blowing it at a private Chicago draft camp workout last summer, it looked like Splitter was going to fall off the draft map. Then a funny thing happened. He went back to Europe, started getting 18 mpg and is now putting up good numbers for a 19-year-old (he just turned 20 this month) on one of Europe's deepest teams. Suddenly, all those NBA scouts who said Splitter was overrated are changing their tune. Splitter has an NBA body that he has made stronger over the past few months. Most scouts agree his defense is ahead of his offense right now. He's an excellent rebounder and shot blocker. He does have a nice handle and a good, but not a great, jumper. He's very long and runs the floor well. Apparently, scouts claim his athleticism and coordination are also improving. He's fearless and doesn't mind contact in the paint. Despite his youth, scouts claim Splitter plays like he's 25. Nevertheless, they're still all over the board when it comes to his draft status. Some have him rated as high as a mid-lottery pick. Others still have him in the 20s.
6. Hakim Warrick, Syracuse
The line: 6-8, 218, Senior
The Good: I've gotten more e-mail about Warrick than any other prospect in the draft. Most question why someone with such great numbers and incredible athletic ability could be rated this low. He's improved in almost every aspect of his game this year. He added a nice mid-range jumper. He put on some weight and found ways to score down low. He's very quick, posing matchup problems at both small forward and power forward. If he was two or three inches taller, 30 pounds heavier and blocked some shots he'd be the No. 1 pick in the draft. But he isn't. Instead, he's a tweener who proved in the NCAA Tournament's first round that his game still has serious holes. His 10 turnovers killed Syracuse in the tournament, as he seemed unable to handle Vermont's physical double teams. He's excelled at Syracuse because of his unbelievable leaping ability and fantastic work ethic. On the right team in the pros, someone like the Suns, he could be very good. On a team that requires its four to play tough physical defense and score consistently on the block, he'd fizzle. His workouts and measurements will be key for Warrick. If he measures taller than expected, gets on a great weight-training program before the workouts and shows a better handle and jump shot, his stock will rise. If he measures closer to 6-foot-7 and doesn't show a go-to skill or two, he'll slip. That puts him anywhere between the late lottery and late first round. Ask us again in two months.
7. Shelden Williams, Duke
The line: 6-9, 250, Junior
The skinny: Williams is the best shot blocker in the country and also one of the NCAA's best rebounders. He's a force in the paint. He has the bulk, strength and toughness to mix it up with anyone down low. He doesn't look like a great athlete, but he's an explosive jumper who gets off the floor quickly. Offensively, he's still raw whenever he steps away from the basket. Again, the tale of the tape will likely determine Williams' future in the draft. If he measures 6-9 or taller, and shows a nice wingspan, his stock could rise into the late lottery. If he measure 6-8 or shorter, his stock probably slips to the 20s. It's kind of silly that one or two inches can make that big of a difference, but history has shown that it absolutely affects draft status.
8. Charlie Villanueva, UConn
The line: 6-11, 240, Sophomore
The skinny: Villanueva, along with Taft, is the most physically gifted big man in the draft. He really has it all – great size, athleticism and toughness. His game is also advanced offensively. He has the ability to play both inside and out. On pure talent, he's a top-10 pick without question. But when you take into account his attitude, laziness on the defensive end and a terrible rep, his stock really suffers. The scouts and GMs I consult all like him as a player, but when pressed on whether they'd actually take him with a lottery pick, they all pass. Why? There are players who are almost as talented – with zero off-the-court issues– available. Asked if they'd take him at 21, every one of them said yes. Right now, we have him in the mid-to-late first round. Villanueva, according to various reports, is intent on declaring for the draft. Another year in school might go a long way toward improving his reputation. But, true to character, it seems like he can't wait.
9. Wayne Simien, Kansas
The line: 6-9, 255, Senior
The skinny: Simien falls into a category similar to Williams. He is one of the most dominant big men in college basketball. He's a blue-collar bruiser with a solid NBA body and plenty of strength and toughness. Simien is an outstanding rebounder, especially on the offensive glass. He has developed a nice baseline jumper, shows soft hands and is quicker than his bulky frame would suggest. He also has impressive leaping ability for a player his size. He's a very good free-throw shooter for a big man. He has a real motor and great toughness. But is he big enough to play the four? Scouts feel he's closer to 6-7, which will raise a lot of concerns. He doesn't have long arms either, which can be a problem. He's not a good shot blocker, which is a surprise considering his leaping ability. Durability is also an issue – he has missed a lot of games the past few years with injuries. His quick exit in the tournament didn't help matters. He's not going to grow, but with the success of players such as Reggie Evans and Danny Fortson in the league right now, he might be able to convince a team that he can bring it the same type of glass cleaning and intensity. Right now he's on the first-round bubble, but he has the potential, with strong workouts, to improve his stock into the high 20s.
10. Ronny Turiaf, Gonzaga
The line: 6-10, 250, Senior
The skinny: Scouts are never indifferent on Gonzaga's import from France. It's a love-hate relationship. On one hand, Turiaf has the size, body, aggressiveness and passion that is lacking in so many big men. On the other hand, his game is still too raw. He struggles with foul trouble, can disappear in big games, ignores his teammates at times and can't seem to finish around the basket. After a stellar start to the season, he cooled off tremendously down the stretch. If he develops a better feel for the game, Turiaf could be a real force in the NBA. But right now his game is all heart and brawn. Look for him to go somewhere in the 20s on draft night.
Best of the rest: David Lee, Florida; Lawrence Roberts, Mississippi State; Jared Homan, Iowa State; Michael Harris, Rice; Chevon Troutman, Pittsburgh; Jason Maxiell, Cincinnati; Taylor Coppenrath, Vermont; Juan Mendez, Niagara; Andray Blatche, HS Senior; Angelo Gigli, Italy; Erazem Lorbek, Skipper Bologna (Italy); Axel Hervelle, Belgium; Yiannis Bouroussis, Greece; Drago Pasalic, Croatia; Uros Slokar, Slovenia.
Wait until next year: Taj Gray, Oklahoma; Al Horford, Florida; Oleksiy Pecherov, Ukraine; Ike Diogu, Arizona State; Vladimir Veremeenko, Belarus; Vilmantas Dilys, Lithuania; Nana "Pops" Mensah-Bonsu, George Washington; James Augustine, Illinois; Josh McRoberts, HS Senior; Nick Fazekas, Nevada; Sean May, UNC; Ekene Ibekwe, Maryland; Kevin Pittsnogle, West Virginia; Paul Davis, Michigan State; Torin Francis, Notre Dame; Brandon Bass, LSU; Craig Smith, Boston College; Glen Davis, LSU; LaMarcus Aldridge, Texas; Linas Kleiza, Missouri; Ian Mahinmi, France; Miguel Marriaga, Venezuela.
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