This one is one for the career tombstone. Equivalent to “we won on paper”. When down 0-3, no one wants to hear stat stuffing.

What I see:

Game 1 - The Knicks well underperformed their analytical baseline and still managed to win. You can call Brunson’s 4th quarter an analytical anomaly, but winners win and losers make excuses. Atkinson failed his team in game 1 by letting Brunson run the same play ad nauseum without a response. I don’t blame the Cavs for this loss, I blame Atkinson. If you want to adjust for statistical anomalies, Game 1 Knicks get more credit, not less.

Game 2 - Again, this is a coaching failure. Leaving Hart open isn’t the same as making Hart beat you. Hart is considered the worst shooter that shot 41% on open 3s during the season. Atkinson left the man open and then looked for numbers to support him when Hart executed. No adjustments. No answers. Just excuses.

Game 3 - Knicks underperformed their baseline by a large margin and still the game was never in question on the road. Here, the Knicks adjusted to traps and found open men in the middle. Every starter scored double digits. The entire Knicks team looked just ok and they adjusted as a team. Atkinson’s team literally gave up on a play where Brunson got an uncontested layup in a half court set. That’s bad coaching.

For Atkinson to be correct, the statistical variance above baseline favoring the Knicks and the statistical variance below baseline harming the Cavs would need to both exist AND not be explainable by any other means (defensive scheme, fatigue, morale). Some of these aren’t going to show in the box score, but they show in the eye test. I see a Cavs team that isn’t adjusting, looks tired, and gives up on plays. That’s not a statistical variance over baseline, that’s a team that’s getting beaten by a hungrier team willing to crawl through the mire to win.

Knicks in 4.

Some would say he already stopped.

Cav's made a coaching change and big committment to its core, then added Harden. I thoguht it was a good trade for this window. Indy out and Boston retooling the window was now. They got to Conf. finals with Mitchell. They did better than before. Its not a failure. The knicks became the "It team" replacing Detroit. it came later than hoped, but it happend.

Atkinson one the hot seat for this? They bought in Atkinson to elevate over Bickerstaff and perhaps its worked. Just not enought to overcome Indy or the knicks. At some point its on the GM and the owner too who either initiates change or approves it.

Nalod wrote:He does make some points but At the end of the day final score is what it is.
What he is really saying is his team is playing well but they just are not good enough.
Game two Josh killed them and while he did not adjust it could be they just figured he'd revert to his average/mean and perhaps go cold. To shut down Hart means giving the offense something else. Or in other words they had "Nothing"! Cav's don't always take care of the ball and knicks defense is built to make teams look even sloppier!
He not blaming the refs. Not blaming injuries. He telling his team to keep playing hard and if knicks go cold they could win a few.
Just my take.
Lets be honest, we fans are a bit suprised of how well Knicks are coming together. Cavs staff must be baffled!

He’s making a critical statistical error. He is using stats and choosing his preferred conclusion without accepting the minimal statistical conclusion. The key concept is that the variance he relies on cannot be explained by any other reason.

Now, you want to give your men an argument. Great. But you want to be cited as an analytics coach? You just got a D on your term paper.

EwingsGlass wrote:

Nalod wrote:He does make some points but At the end of the day final score is what it is.
What he is really saying is his team is playing well but they just are not good enough.
Game two Josh killed them and while he did not adjust it could be they just figured he'd revert to his average/mean and perhaps go cold. To shut down Hart means giving the offense something else. Or in other words they had "Nothing"! Cav's don't always take care of the ball and knicks defense is built to make teams look even sloppier!
He not blaming the refs. Not blaming injuries. He telling his team to keep playing hard and if knicks go cold they could win a few.
Just my take.
Lets be honest, we fans are a bit suprised of how well Knicks are coming together. Cavs staff must be baffled!

He’s making a critical statistical error. He is using stats and choosing his preferred conclusion without accepting the minimal statistical conclusion. The key concept is that the variance he relies on cannot be explained by any other reason.

Now, you want to give your men an argument. Great. But you want to be cited as an analytics coach? You just got a D on your term paper.

I did make some additonal edits on my comment.
Your not wrong by the way. But My guess is coaches rely on the piles of statistical data all year long and it was good enought to get them to the ECF's. Its not their first rodeo so it stings a bit more. I added they got further than before. DonMitch has never been to a conf final also. A team like Detroit losing after winning 60 games is a different scenario as they have only been "good" for two seasons now. Knicks been climbing the ladder a few years.

Clev traded their depth for a better starting group over the past two years. OG has handled Mobley who to me was the key to the Cavs in the same way KAT was the key to knicks. The Little guys historically don't carry teams to championships. Mitchell is great but if he is handled who is stepping up? Cuz if Mobley was the man, Mitchell could be free to finish and destroy as Brunson has been. Josh, OG, and mikal all executing becuase KAT is making it work. If they try to stop the rest, KAT will get numbers.

You make good points but I thinnk Cavs just have tried to adjust and they have nothing to counter. If they leaned on what got them there and not a strong conviction to make big changes perhaps it could have been even worse for them if they did? Down 0-3 is not a good place to be.

EwingsGlass wrote:OG vs Mobley deserves a ton of credit. Mobley has been silent. Still solid, but not the impact he usually is. We haven’t even really had to break out the big guns on them.

Robinson is barely being called on to body them up unlike how we used him in Philly.

Allen is getting a lot of free looks though.

Perhaps we are conseeding that to Allen? We up 3-0 so its pretty darn good. Allen been ineffective at games end so we wearing him out?
Mitch? perhaps hack a mitch is working (the analytics! LOL) and perhaps also thier bigs are boxing him out. If so are they leaving others alone?
Seems like OG is gettng some clutch rebounds at games end? Also KAT is not getting in foul trouble.
Mitch is getting some lobs that are killing them.
Are we going small without mitch? The pace tiring them out and then we deliver the knock out punch?
The aggregate of is what matters. The chess game requires we sacrifice at times. If GTA is not hittig his shot is he making thier guards work hard? Remmber when schroeder who keeps poppping up used to hurt us? he looks like **** and they have to use him still.

He’ll join the trend of recent CoY being dumped.