I'll be honest, I don't really want to live in a world where Mitch Rob isn't a Knick. In his first two seasons, the Knicks won a total of 38 games. This guy remembers when Tim Hardaway Jr. was the best player on the team! And throughout his whole tenure, he's consistently been one of the most impactful players in the league on a per minute basis. Quibble if you like, but if you go by win shares per minute (and really how can there be a fairer stat) for players with 1000+ minutes in 25-26, the list goes:

SGA
JOKIC
DUREN
WEMBANYAMA
MITCHELL ROBINSON

Can you imagine if he hit his free throws???

All that is just exposition for the Knicks 2026 off season. To wit, the Knicks currently have 205 million committed to 9 players:

KAT, OG, JB, MB, JH (these guys will start breaking some modern records for minutes played as a starting lineup next season)

Plus:
Deuce, Dadiet, Tyler, and Jose (if he opts into his player option (if he doesn't Knicks should sign his lesser known younger brother Hose B(#dadjokes))).

That's a solid team right there! 8/11 of the Knicks top players in minutes per game. And heck, Jose and Tyler can carve up Clarkson's minutes and Dadiet can pick up Shamet's. Knicks are just a back up center and a practice squad away from repeating this season's magic!

We still have to see how far this team goes before we want to make any decisions, but thanks to KD signing with the Warriors, and more importantly Joakim Noah and Timofey Mozgov getting 136 million in 2016, the NBA decided to spread out the effects of the new CBA over three years, resulting in the following numbers for next season:

Cap: 165
1st: 209
2nd: 222

Now we get into the weeds of minimum salary players. The Knicks need to field a roster of 13 players. Let's say the other 4 sign for 2 million each, that gets the Knicks to 213 million, leaving a paltry 9 million for Mitchell Robinson if the Knicks want to stay under the 2nd apron, far below the market value of (in at least one guy's opinion) the fifth best player in the league.

The second apron can be exceeded for one season without totally ****ing your team over. Sure you can't trade your pick 7 years out, but it doesn't get frozen until you go over the 2nd apron two years in a row. And because of the previously mentioned cap smoothing, the 27-28 number should jump to something like 244 million (10% per year). And if you go out two seasons, the Knicks starters are still mostly under contract (KAT has a 61 mil player option and Josh a 22 million team option) for 213 million. The Knicks would still be down McBride and Jose, whose contracts expire, but would have something like 31 million to play with if they wanted to avoid (and they do!) the penalty of having that picked locked in at number 32 (thanks to expansion.)

So the way I see it, there are really three things to consider:

1. Knicks can afford one more salary in the 15-20 range if they fill the rest of their roster with minimum guys.

2. Even though he hits free agency a year later, to some extent McBride and Robinson are competing for the same money.

3. KATs 61 million player option is the biggest wild card. If he were to opt out and extend for more years at a lesser number, Knicks could keep both.

Let's go back to Jimmy D. His widely ridiculed Finals or bust proclamation (or was it Championship?) should have been understood in the sense that
the Knicks will be in repeater tax territory next season after exceeding the luxury tax in 24-25, 25-26, and 26-27. The repeater penalty is significant, about 40% more than the regular tax.

If the Knicks were able to make some moves to get under the tax of 201 million, the Knicks would save about 120 million vs. resigning Robinson to an 18 million per year contract that pushes the Knicks up to 230 million in salaries. (230+90-200)

This is kind of where my heart breaks. Because 120 million is a hell of a lot of money, even for the fifth best player in the league. The only saving grace is that, despite gaining 80% in the last calendar year, MSG Sports (owner of the Knicks and Rangers) still seems undervalued at about 8 bln in market cap. If expansion franchises are projected at 7-10 bln. You got to think the Knicks are worth considerably more. And if the Knicks make the Finals, especially against a team the is projected at 250 mln in payroll next year (OKC) who will undoubtedly have to think about their own free agents (Dort and iHart on 50 million in team options.) Well, in that case, making the Finals, keeping Robinson and going into the tax probably makes sense in terms of the capital gains.

If Robinson is the difference maker he was in 24 vs. Philly this round, and next round vs. Cleveland like he was in 23, and maybe even vs. Wemby in the finals like he waz in the 25 mid season tournament, him getting resigned, for almost any amount, would be worth it.

*A lot of these same concerns apply to Clarkson, Diawara, and Hukporti, but just given those guys track records, their new salaries will be at much smaller amounts.

** Re: total win shares, Mitch Rob was 6th on the team, right behind OG and Josh, despite playing about half their minutes. Since it's unlikely Robinson can significantly increase his time this is probably a better measure.

*** Since the regular season is really just an appetizer for the playoffs, I should also point out that Robinson has been about as impactful as Josh and Mikal in about half the minutes.

Knixkik wrote:Bringing back Mitch is completely dependent on how we do in the playoffs. So far so good. If we keep rolling, going into the second apron for a year or two will be justified. If not, he’s probably out because it’s the simplest move. Deuce will be cheap for one more year and should be extended. Hart and KAT would hypothetically be extended at lower numbers to help offset a Deuce contract (and potential Mitch increased contract.) The other avenue would be moving Bridges for a team simply willing to absorb his contract and try to replace him internally/ in the aggregate. As far as draft picks, it wouldn’t surprise me if pick 24 is moved for multiple future second round picks. Pick 31 should be used to pick a player as this is the best second round pick and eligible for the second round exception. Huge opportunity to get a useful player for really cheap that falls out of the first round. Knicks continue to be dependent on every single one of their top 7 players so the goal is to keep them all if we keep winning, and continue to find ways to add depth for cheap around them.

This is all spot on. I had a paragraph on the financial consequences of moving Mikal but ended up editing it out because my mind was spinning from the math. But yes, sending Mikal to a team with space would free up space for Robinson, but also it isn't super necessary because the Knicks could go over the second apron next year and then get back under the following one. It mostly comes down to if Dolan is willing to sign the checks.

Philc1 wrote:

EwingsGlass wrote:So, we have our 1st rd pick and 2 second rd picks. The late first and early 2nd being likely rostered players and the late 2nd being either a 2Way or a stash - but you never know - see Huk.

But that Wiz pick should be a roster player for the 2nd round exception, skewing the math favorably. They can get to 12 players with that 1st with a 1st rd value of about 2mm, and two 2nds for approx 1.2mm each. That leaves approx 13mm for the remain 3 slots - which they need 14 rostered players.

Diawara and Robinson become your real question marks. Diawara will be an RFA and Robinson deserves to get paid. I’d want to keep both. I’d hope we could get a McBride type extension out of Diawara. And then I’d break the 2nd apron to keep Robinson.

As you say, 2027 isn’t the real issue. It’s gonna be 2028. But that sounds like a next year problem. If we are contending for a chip, the juice is worth the squeeze.

That’s why we are going over second apron. Diawara is the future and Mitch is a must resign. Someone is going to offer Diawara a contract we will have to match.

Knicks also have the 24th pick in a good draft that will have to be signed.

EwingsGlass wrote:

Philc1 wrote:

EwingsGlass wrote:So, we have our 1st rd pick and 2 second rd picks. The late first and early 2nd being likely rostered players and the late 2nd being either a 2Way or a stash - but you never know - see Huk.

But that Wiz pick should be a roster player for the 2nd round exception, skewing the math favorably. They can get to 12 players with that 1st with a 1st rd value of about 2mm, and two 2nds for approx 1.2mm each. That leaves approx 13mm for the remain 3 slots - which they need 14 rostered players.

Diawara and Robinson become your real question marks. Diawara will be an RFA and Robinson deserves to get paid. I’d want to keep both. I’d hope we could get a McBride type extension out of Diawara. And then I’d break the 2nd apron to keep Robinson.

As you say, 2027 isn’t the real issue. It’s gonna be 2028. But that sounds like a next year problem. If we are contending for a chip, the juice is worth the squeeze.

That’s why we are going over second apron. Diawara is the future and Mitch is a must resign. Someone is going to offer Diawara a contract we will have to match.

Knicks also have the 24th pick in a good draft that will have to be signed.

Smart money trades back from 24 (after officially making its selection) into the 2nd rd unless there is a must have guy there at 24.

Maybe. It depends on what the FO sees as available at 24 versus later on. Diawara is a very nice piece to build a future core around but we need more or we risk another 2001 season and subsequent quagmire after the current roster’s window closes in 4 years.

Panos wrote:How much is Mitch worth given that opponents can remove him from the game any time they want?
I'm not saying he's worthless, he's an impact player but limited minutes.

If he could hit free throws his market value would shyrocket but as of now I think we can afford to keep him.